70 F. possible today, 70s likely Tuesday into Thursday - slight chance of 80 tomorrow.
Severe storms are most likely late tomorrow; I
expect watches and warnings close to home. I expect a few tornadoes,
especially central and southern Minnesota. Photo: Wichita office of the
NWS.
"
It is every man's obligation to put back into the world at least the equivalent of what he takes out of it." - Albert Einstein. Photo courtesy of
maniacworld.com.
"PBS' Climate Desk notes
that almost four million Americans "now live in coastal communities
that could see increased flooding caused by sea-level rise," according
to research from Climate Central." - from a story on rising sea level and sinking ground in Norfolk, Virginia at Huffington Post; details below.
“
It
is frustrating to see that it’s so extremely difficult to include this
huge risk of climate change into current business,” Andreas Spiegel,
senior climate change adviser at Swiss Re, a large reinsurance company,
told Schiller. “There is a bit of a short-term view on the benefits,
risks, and costs.” Those companies that have approached the issue have
tended to concentrate on the increase in powerful hurricanes while
ignoring “non-coastal extreme weather” such as floods, droughts,
snowstorms, hailstorms and tornadoes. - from a story at allgov.com
about U.S. insurers largely ignoring the implications of climate
change, while insurance and reinsurance agencies elsewhere are not;
details below.
"We have limited capability to sustain long-term operations in
the Arctic due to inadequate icebreaking capability," Berbrick said.
"The Navy finds itself entering a new realm as it relates to having to
rely on other nations." - from an article below about Navy readiness and capabilities in a slowly melting Arctic ecosystem.
"The gradual warming of the tropics may not seem as weird as
March Madness, but it has much more important implications for
biodiversity, food security and the stability of world financial
markets. If global warming continues as projected, the global
consequences of deteriorating conditions in the tropics will soon be a
lot more serious than a foretaste of summer weather in late winter." - from a story at IEEE Spectrum about linking March heat to climage change.
Today's Severe Threat (SPC) Tuesday Severe Threat (SPC)
Growing Severe Risk For Upper Midwest. Strong to
severe T-storms are expected to mushroom along a vigorous warm frontal
boundary forecast to push northward through midweek. For Minnesota the
best chance of hail, damaging straight-line winds and even a few
isolated tornadoes will come Tuesday afternoon/evening. It's a mixed
blessing: welcome rain from showers and T-storms, but a few violent
storms can't be ruled out as the atmosphere shifts gears from mid-March
to a truly May-like pattern of temperature and humidity. Forecasts above
courtesy of NOAA SPC.
A Windy Week? The greater the contrast in
temperature, the stronger winds have to blow to keep the atmosphere in
equilibrium. A few models are hinting at 40-50 mph. wind gusts late
Tuesday with strong/severe T-storms. My hunch is that a few towns could
see winds considerably higher than that. Graphic courtesy of Iowa State.
Go Cyclones!
Ingredients Converging For Significant Severe/Tornado Event Tuesday PM Hours?
Here is why I'm concerned about tomorrow evening. Assuming a few hours
of sun the mercury should reach the upper 70s, possibly low 80s. A
"Cape" of 1458 assumes moderate instability. The dew point temperature
is forecast to be 64.4 F - plenty of low-level moisture. Helicity values
(a measure of wind shear) reach 470, which is very high, meaning plenty
of horizontal wind shear which could translate around a vertical axis
in severe T-storm updrafts. Total totals = 54.5, which is high, with a
hail size prediction of 1.25" diameter. It's just a hunch,
but
our proximity to a vigorous warm front plus all the factors just listed
leads me to believe Minnesota will experience a few tornadoes between
4pm and 9 pm Tuesday. We'll see.
Welcome Rain.
The latest QPF (quantitative precipitation forecast) pinpoints the
heaviest rains from Kansas City to the Quad Cities and Madison (2-4"
amounts). South Florida may pick up 5-8" amounts, with 2-3"+ for the
Pacific Northwest. A 1.5" bullseye shows up over the Minnesota
Arrowhead. I hope the models are right. Map courtesy of
NOAA HPC.
5 Days Above 70 This Week? The "correction" is over.
Good riddance to our late April "relapse". We had to pay a price for
record March warmth, and we have (3 episodes of frost in the last 2-3
weeks, a touch of sleet and snow Saturday morning). That's in our
rear-view mirror now, the ECMWF (European) model hinting at 5 days of
70s this week, maybe an 80-degree high Tuesday or Wednesday.
Like Flipping On A Switch. And to think I was
cleaning out my storage locker in a heavy leather jacket and gloves
Saturday morning. I hope to dig out my (short) shorts and annoy the
neighbors by tomorrow as highs climb toward 80. A slight cooling trend
is possible by the weekend, if you call 60s to near 70 a cooling trend.
Putting Another Dent In Our Drought? As a strong
warm front approaches from the south showers and T-storms will sweep
across Minnesota, the best chance of welcome rain late Tuesday, late
Wednesday, again Thursday night. The timing is tricky, but at least one
model (18z NAM) is hinting at nearly 2" of rain by Friday morning.
Probably Safe To Plant Annuals. If you're smart
you'll still wait until after Mother's Day to plant those prize-winning
tomatoes. But if you have an urge to get out and work the dirt next
weekend you'll probably be OK. The risk of another metro frost is
probably less than 1 in 5, maybe 1 in 10. The GFS is showing lows in the
mid 30s around May 10, which may be the last episode of chilly readings
in May. Then again the way 2012 is zigging and zagging from one extreme
to the next, all bets are off.
Frost - Hard Freeze Warnings. Are you sure May is
right around the corner? You'd never know it in upstate New York, where
Hard Freeze Warnings are posted early this morning. Latest watches,
warnings and advisories from NOAA
here.
Joplin And Tuscaloosa Becomes Sister Cities Of Destruction. Here's an excerpt of a story at
tuscaloosanews.com: "
JOPLIN,
Mo. | Twenty-three days and 28 minutes after Tuscaloosa’s 90,468
residents experienced one of the worst natural disasters Alabama has
ever seen, a city approximately 600 miles away was struck by one of the
deadliest — and, statistically, the costliest — tornadoes in American
history. The EF5 tornado tore a 13-mile gash through Joplin, Mo., at
approximately 5:41 p.m. on May 22, 2011. It claimed 161 lives, and the
cost to rebuild this Midwestern city of 50,175 is expected to reach $3
billion."
Photo credit above: "
Demolition of Joplin High School was
underway in early March. After an EF5 tornado struck this Midwestern
city on May 22, 2011, duct tape was added to the remaining letters of
the school’s sign to read “HOPE.” The tornado destroyed four schools
and damaged five, but the schools worked to offer summer school classes
the following month and have the school year start on Aug. 17.
Jason Morton | Tuscaloosa news."
New Hazard On The Horizon: Amateur Storm Chasers.
I had a hunch this would eventually happen. The movie "Twister"
launched the current craze - showing video of tornadoes on local TV and
national networks accelerated the "storm-chasing hobby".
NPR
has a story about the implications and dangers of traffic jams of storm
chasers clogging highways in the danger zone; here's an excerpt: "
When more than 100 tornadoes raked the Great Plains a couple of weeks
ago, emergency responders ran headlong into a growing phenomenon: roads
bottled up by swarms of tornado chasers. On a
sunny day in tiny Solomon, Kan., it's hard to imagine anything stirring
the place up. A car eases past every so often, but two weeks ago, a
powerful tornado was plowing through the countryside. One road was
jammed — and dangerous. "You couldn't get
onto this road for the traffic, and someone was in the southbound lane
passing everybody at a high rate of speed," says Chancy Smith, who
coordinates emergency response in Dickinson County. Tracking the
tornado, sounding the alarm, and helping the victims is his
responsibility."
Photo credit above:
Matt Piechota /YouTube. "Emergency responders are running headlong into a growing phenomenon: roads bottled up by swarms of tornado chasers."
Photo of The Day: "Shelf Cloud". From the
NWS office in Springfield, Missouri: "
Look at this Shelf Cloud just taken outside our office this morning
about 8 am. It will be a wet and stormy Sunday across the Ozarks."
Opinion: Not Ready For An Electric Car? Get An Electric Scooter. Here's an excerpt of an intriguing article from
digitaltrends.com: "
Until
charging stations dot the country, electric scooters make more sense
than electric cars. Here’s why – and a look at what might be one of the
most unique and practical models yet. Last week I was at Dell’s Annual
Analyst Conference, but the product at the event I most wanted wasn’t a
desktop, laptop, a tablet or even a smartphone. It was a scooter. It
turns out that Dell had actually helped create Current Motor’s electric
Super Scooter. What makes this particular scooter unique is that it
both uses a hub motor, and was designed to use vehicle wraps instead of
paint. That last point is something that I think the car industry will
eventually adapt as well."
My Faith: What Does God Sound Like? Here's a snippet of a thought-provoking story from
CNN's Religion Blog: "
I
hear the audible voice of God. No, not in the same way that the
Bible’s Eve did when God asked her outright and out loud: “Woman, what
in my name have you done now?” Scriptures don’t tell us specifically,
but I suspect at that particular moment in eternity God must have
sounded a lot like Perry Mason: “C’mon, tell the truth. You know I’m a
specialist on getting people out of trouble.” Bestselling author Patti
Callahan Henry is a pastor’s daughter in Alabama. You’d think if God
spoke to anybody, it would be a pastor’s child, but Patti swears she
has never heard the voice of God. The only time God speaks to her is
through the written word. I find that odd since God talks to me all the
time."
Preparing For A Future That Includes Aging Parents. This story from
NPR
struck home; my mom has dementia and is bed-ridden, my mother-in-law
has Alzheimer's. Many of us are dealing with aging parents, on top of
kids and the day to day cruelties of daily life. I feel your pain. Maybe
reading this story will help in some small way - here's an excerpt: "
Planning
a wedding is exciting. Mapping out a vacation is fun. Figuring how to
afford care for your confused, elderly father? That one may never cross
your mind — at least, not until you need more money to care for him.
"Never thought about it," Natasha Shamone-Gilmore, 58, says about her
younger self. "Never ever."She thinks about it a lot these days.
Shamone-Gilmore, a computer trainer in Maryland, now shares a modest
home with her husband, 24-year-old son and 81-year-old father. Like
millions of other middle-aged Americans, she had long regarded her
parents as robust adults, more than capable of managing their own
affairs. "My mom was a very active woman; my dad ... was a Safeway
employee for 40-something years," she said."
Photo credit above:
Kainaz Amaria/NPR. "Natasha
Shamone-Gilmore keeps a letter from her father's doctor diagnosing him
with dementia on a wall in her kitchen. She uses it at times to remind
Franklin Brunson of his condition."
Should Your Dog Be Watching TV? I don't think I've
ever seen those words together in a sentence. Not sure I have a coherent
answer, either. Here's an excerpt from a story at
The New York Times:
"Plenty of things will grab a dog’s attention: squirrels, tennis balls,
funny smells, other dogs. But a TV channel? Absolutely, say the makers
of
DogTV,
the first cable network to deliver 24-hour programming for dogs. The
idea, they say, is that flipping on the channel while you go out for the
day will keep your pet stimulated, entertained and relaxed. Call it
“Sesame Street” for those who will never learn their ABCs. The shows on
DogTV are actually three- to six-minute segments featuring grassy
fields, bouncing balls and humans rubbing dog tummies. There are also
segments featuring noiseless vacuum cleaners and muted doorbells to
help make dogs more comfortable around such common household
agitations. Photo: DogTV.
Obama's Use Of Complete Sentences Stirs Controversy. Breaking news from
The Borowitz Report: "
WASHINGTON (The Borowitz Report) – In
the first term in office, President Barack Obama has broken with a
tradition established over the previous eight years through his
controversial use of complete sentences, political observers say. New
polls indicate that millions of Americans are put off by the
President’s unorthodox verbal tic, which has Mr. Obama employing
grammatically correct sentences virtually every time he opens his mouth."
"
Life isn't about waiting for the storm to pass, it's about learning how to dance in the rain." - Vivian Greene
An Olympic Clean Sweep
We had a 24/7 weather channel growing up. It was
called a "window". And why not a Spring Cleaning Olympics? I can hear
the announcers "the Russians have a legendary synchronized vacuum
cleaning team" and "look at those Romanians rake - lovely form, don't
you think?" Clothes-shuffling. Competitive dock installation. The USA
would sweep up. Literally. I hope someone from NBC is writing this down.
The sun did make a fleeting cameo appearance
Sunday; too much low level moisture to keep blue sky overhead for long.
No major fireworks today, but 70 should feel great.
A ROF or "ring of fire" pattern is setting up
this week; hot, humidified air bulging northward - 80 degree air surging
into southern Minnesota by Tuesday and Wednesday. A persistent
east-west boundary may ignite a few spirited rounds of thunderstorms.
Tuesday may bring the first widespread severe storm outbreak of spring
for Minnesota, with a handful of tornadoes possible. That volatile front
may get a southward nudge next weekend; most storms rumbling over the
Dakotas and Iowa. No guarantees yet.
In news of the weird MLB broadcaster Tim
McCarver is blaming a spike in home runs on climate change. Details on
the weather blog.
* image above courtesy of
someecards.com.
"
To live a pure unselfish life, one must count nothing as one's own in the midst of abundance." - Buddha
Climate Stories....
Baseball Analyst Blames Rise In Homers On Global Warming.
Don't laugh - Tim may be onto something. All other things being equal, a
baseball will travel farther on a hot, humid day than on a cool, dry
day. We're seeing a spike in humidity levels across Minnesota and the
rest of the USA; more summer days with drippy dew points in the 70s,
even the low 80s - truly tropical air. A warmer atmosphere can hold more
water vapor, which might just tilt the odds in favor of more home runs.
More details from
wwltv.com: "
A
lot of things have been blamed on global warming over the years, but
the always quotable MLB broadcaster Tim McCarver has a new theory:
maybe "climactic change" is to blame for a rise in home runs. The
bizarre idea was noticed by Deadspin.
In the video, McCarver says "it has not been proven," but he believes
thin air is a factor for the rise in long balls. "There have been
climactic changes over the last 50 years in the world, and I think
that's one of the reasons that balls are carrying much better now than I
remember," he said."
Photo credit above:
boston.com.
Climate Change And More Weather Extremes. Here's a clip of a
Huffington Post story from Bill Chameides, Dean, Duke University's Nicholas School of the Environment: "
Even so, we seem to have been subjected to especially bizarre and extreme weather over the past two to three years. Examples include:
Graphic above: Trends in extreme one-day precipitation amounts across the Lower 48 States courtesy of NCDC.
Climate Change Dispute Erupts With Aspen Telling U.S. Chamber of Commerce To Take A Hike. Details from
Real Vail: "
Aspen's
chamber of commerce isn't the first to sever ties with the U.S.
Chamber of Commerce over political differences. The chamber in Homer, Alaska, made national headlines
when it canceled its membership last year. But Auden Schendler, the
Aspen Skiing Co.'s vice president of sustainability, believes the
famous Rocky Mountain hamlet's stature may bring more scrutiny to the
U.S. Chamber's right-wing agenda. “Homer was a unique story, but Aspen
is an even more high-profile town with often outsized influence,”
Schendler said Thursday. “It's the iconic ski town that often sets an
example for others.”
Photo credit above:
350.org.
Did Climate Change Drive Record High U.S. Temperatures? One analysis from
IEEE Spectrum: "
Is global warming responsible for the March temperatures?
Writing earlier this week in the Los Angeles Times, John Michael
Wallace, a professor of atmospheric science at the University of
Washington, delivered a measured assessment. Wallace, one of the world's most highly regarded specialists in climate dynamics,
first of all affirms that the effects of global warming are clearly
evident in a statistical increase in record high temperatures, which now
outnumber record lows by a ratio of three to one. Rising average
global temperatures raise all ships, he observes."
* map above of March temperature anomalies courtesy of NASA's Earth Observatory and
Weather Underground.
Norfolk, Virginia's Rising Sea Levels And Sinking Ground Pose A Community Challenge. The story from PBS and
The Huffington Post: "
Experts predict that the effects of climate change may have the greatest impact on low-lying, and often developing nations,
but countries like the United States are not immune. The low-lying city
of Norfolk, Virginia, located at the mouth of the Chesapeake Bay, is
not only susceptible to sea level rise, but is already experiencing it.
Norfolk's longtime mayor, Paul Fraim, told PBS' Climate Desk that "There's no question that the problem's getting worse." Although measurable sea level rise
has occurred along the U.S. East Coast, "just over half" of Norfolk's
roughly 14 inch sea level rise since 1930 is a result of sinking land,
explains PBS. The combination of Norfolk's coastal presence and marshy
soil has put Norfolk's sea level rise at "almost double the global
rate."
Navy Finds It Falls Short In Arctic Ocean. The story from
heraldnet.com: "
KODIAK,
Alaska -- In six oceans, the U.S. Navy is considered the master. In
the seventh, the Arctic Ocean, it will rely on others. As global
warming opens the Arctic Ocean to commercial and industrial traffic, the
Navy is pushing to catch up with Russia, Canada and even Denmark in
its Arctic ability. If a crisis were to happen now, the Navy lacks the
ability to act in the Arctic without the help of one of those countries
or the Coast Guard. Last year, the Navy asked the War Gaming
Department of the Naval War College to find out what it needs for
sustained operations in the Arctic."
Photo credit above: "
The Coast Guard heavy icebreaker Polar Star is currently on inactive status in Seattle."
Insurers Prepare For Climate Change, Except In U.S. Here's an excerpt of a story at
AllGov.com: "
Insurance
company executives are aware of the future risks posed by climate
change. And yet they have been slow to prepare for the coming wave of
weather-related accidents and litigation spawned by global warming
changes. In a survey conducted by Ceres,
a Boston-based coalition of investors and environmental groups, more
than 75% of insurers acknowledged the existence of perils stemming from
climate change. “Yet despite widespread recognition of the effects
climate change will likely have on extreme events, few insurers were
able to articulate a coherent plan to manage the risks and
opportunities associated with climate change,” the Ceres report states."
Global Warming Is No Longer A Future Problem. It's a Now Event. Here's a story from Jason Mraz at
Huffington Post: "....
Global
warming is no longer a future problem. It's a now event. And it's not a
planet problem either. It's a people problem. The rate at which we
consume energy through land clearing, factory farming, and the burning
of fossil fuels oil and coal, is wreaking havoc on the atmosphere,
contributing to the overall, exaggerated warming of the planet. Our
very creation of an industrialised system to make our lives convenient
and sweet succeeded in the sweetness, but sadly isn't sustainable. The
proof is all around us. A billion people live without water. More than
that live in extreme poverty. War hasn't found its resolve. And the
seasons are only getting stranger."
