Silver Linings
Pray
for a gradual thaw. There's 2-6 inches of liquid water locked up in
those drifts. A MnDOT station near Monticello ground frost 73 inches
deep. The potential for spring flooding will depend on many factors,
especially the rate of warming, coupled with any rain in March, which
would accelerate snow melt on frozen ground.
One silver lining:
William Fernow asks "How much impact have our cold temperatures had on
the emerald ash borer?" Lee Frelich at the U. of MN Center for Forest
Ecology told me with metro readings around -20F the pests probably
weren't wiped out, but our harsh winter may have set the bugs back a
year or two. Details from Lee on my weather blog.
The sun is as
high in the sky as it was in mid-October, which will make subzero fun
less likely in March. I don't blame you for being skeptical, but we will
warm up. Long-range models have been all but useless, hinting at
repeated (phantom) thaws, but I suspect 30s late in the week are real.
It may even feel like March out there.
A word of caution: as the
atmosphere floating overhead begins to thaw the storm track will shift
north, increasing the odds of a few tournament storms. Nothing brewing
yet. Stay paranoid OK?
* photo above courtesy of
emeraldashborer.info.
SWE: Snow Water Equivalent.
According to NOAA estimates there is anywhere from 2-10" of liquid
water trapped in Minnesota's snow pack right now, the greatest amounts
over the Arrowhead, closer to 4-6" of water in and around the Twin
Cities. This is one (of many) factors that hydrologists at NOAA will be
examining when predicting the spring river flooding risk.
USA Snow Cover.
The northern third of America is still covered in snow; heaviest
amounts over the highest elevations of the Pacific Northwest and
Rockies; 15-35" on the ground across the great state of Minnesota.
Cold Perspective.
Here's an excerpt of a note I received Saturday night from TPT Almanac
Executive Producer Brendan Henehan, who did a great job summarizing just
how unusual nighttime lows of -10F or colder in March really are:
"
In
the past 75 years --according to my tally-- there have been sixteen
days in March in the Twin Cities when the temp was 10 below or colder.
We are expected to add two more to this historic number this weekend.
The National Weather Service forecast lows for (Saturday night) and
Sunday night in the Twin Cities is 14 below. If it gets to -12F either
night it will be the coldest Twin Cities March temp since 1962. And
this weekend will almost surely constitute the coldest back-to-back
March nights in the Twin Cities since 1948. But don't worry... the
record for the coldest Twin Cities March temp in the past 75 years is
safe and secure. On March 1, 1962 the mercury dipped to 32 below in
Minneapolis and St. Paul. Let's let that one stay a record."
Full List of -10 and Colder Twin Cities March Readings since 1939
3-2-1943 -11
3-10-1948 -17
3-11-1948 -27
3-2-1950 -13
3-9-1951 -10
3-7-1955 -11
3-4-1960 -10
3-5-1960 -14
3-7-1960 -16
3-1-1962 -32
3-6-1962 -10
3-7-1967 -10
3-2-1972 -11
3-4-1978 -11
3-26-1996 -10
3-9-2003 -10
Long Range Models: Consistently Awful.
The ECMWF (European) is usually pretty good, but none of the models are
performing well in this (locked/stuck) pattern we've been experiencing
since December. Any hint of a real thaw has been pushed back into early
next week, but at least we'll see 20s later this week. Graphic:
Weatherspark.
40 By Mid-March? Don't Take It To The Bank.
I really want to believe the GFS solution above, suggesting highs
topping 40F by mid-March. But everything keeps getting pushed back, a
pattern I've been witnessing for several months now. I feel a growing
sense of confidence that we will see 30s the second week of March. With a
little divine intervention maybe we'll top 40F. Again, for the sake of
people living along rivers, streams and in poor drainage areas let's
hope our spring thaw is a gradual one.
Limping Into Spring.
NOAA's CFS (Climate Forecast System) extended model - more of a trend -
suggests one more run of subzero weather around March 12; maybe a
couple nights near or just below 0F, before a sustained period of more
seasonable weather from mid-March into early April. 60F by the second
week of April? We can only hope and pray this outlook will verify.
Graphic: NOAA and Ham Weather.
More Like Late January Than Early March.
The core of the jet stream is still fairly far south for early March;
today's storm spreading snow and ice across the Mid South into Tennessee
and Kentucky, reaching Washington D.C. and Dover, Delaware Monday. NAM
snowfall amounts: NOAA and Ham Weather.
Ice Potential.
Baron Service's BAMS model shows a risk of significant ice (freezing
rain and sleet) from near Little Rock to Memphis and Nashville today,
enough to stop traffic and possibly spark power outages.
Measures Of This Cold Winter.
Dr. Mark Seeley has a few eye-opening weather nuggets and statistics
related to the duration and intensity of the cold across Minnesota in
this week's edition of
Minnesota WeatherTalk; here's an excerpt: "....
For
the meteorological winter (Dec-Feb), persistent cold and snow cover
have been the themes across Minnesota. On a statewide basis it is the
coldest winter since that of 1978-1979 and will likely end up among the
top 5 coldest historically. Some measures of the cold winter season
include:
* 65 days with below 0 F minimum temperature at
Duluth, including a record string of 23 consecutive days from January 20
to February 11
* 70 days with below 0 F minimum temperatures at International Falls
*
50 days with 0 F or colder minimum temperatures in the Twin Cities,
over twice the historical average and the most since the winter of
1977-1978..."
Alerts Broadcaster Briefing issued Saturday by meteorologist Andy Mair:
SNOW AND ICE STORM
-
A rain/snow/ice mix is expected to begin falling this afternoon in
southern and central Missouri. Expect rain at first, transitioning over
to ice and snow by the evening. This storm will push eastward and by the
end of the weekend will have impacted southern Illinois, Indiana, Ohio
and Northern Kentucky.
-
Above you can see the advisories issued for the central part of the US.
The National Weather Service has already issued a Winter Storm Warning
for much of Missouri. Winter Storm Watches exist from Indiana to New
Jersey. Expect the National Weather Service to begin upgrading these
Winter Storm Watches to Winter Storm Warnings today as the models all
come into agreement.
- Heavy winds will also accompany the fresh
snow. This will make travel conditions even more difficult due to
reduced visibility, including white out conditions, along with drifting
snow. Please take extra precautions if traveling this weekend. Below is
our in-house BPI forecast (Blizzard Potential Index). This shows the
greatest potential for blizzard conditions to occur. The area below
outlined in red is where we expect the wost conditions over the next few
days as the storm progresses to the east.
-
Snow and rain will begin late this afternoon in Missouri and northern
Illinois, Indiana and Ohio and carry on overnight and into Sunday. Here
is a look at the simulated radar from Weatherbell this evening.
-
By Sunday evening the snow/rain line will have pushed farther to the
south bring a mixed bag of precip to Kentucky and West Virginia. You can
see the very fine line between what is snow, ice and rain.
-
Once the system has moved through most areas will have seen over 4+
inches of snow with some seeing as high as 8+ where the air stayed
colder only allowing for snow to fall. Map: Weatherbell.
-
Expect difficult driving conditions and air travel delays over the next
48 hours in the Central Plains. Driving will be hazardous as a
rain/snow mix will create a layer of ice on roads accompanied by heavy
winds to reduce visibility and create drifts. This will also cause
extensive power outages as power lines will be dragged to the ground by
the heavy ice accumulation and wind. Graphic: NOAA SPC and Ham Weather.
FLOODING IN CALIFORNIA
-
More rain is expected for Southern California today and into the
evening. Up to another inch of rain again today causing widespread
flooding for most areas. Below is the forecasted rain accumulation
today.
-
Heavy rain yesterday already created serious flooding and mudslides.
Some areas reported 5"+ of rainfall, which destroyed roads and flooded
low-lying areas. After additional rain today, expect continued flooding
concerns, but the good news is that dry skies are in sight. Rainfall
should wrap up across this area by the end of this evening.
Some impressive rain fall totals so far from the NWS at 4am Saturday:
- Newhall 3.14"
- San Gabriel Dam 5.15"
- Crystal Lake 7.28"
- Camp Hi Hill 7.75
- Cogswell Dam 8.19
- White Ledge Peak 5.00"
- Black Mountain 4.76"
-
Heavy rains have already caused mudslides and flooding across much of
the area. Try to remain off roads and do not risk driving your vehicle
through a flooded road. It only takes a few inches to knock you off your
feet and 6" to move your vehicle.
SEVERE RISK TODAY
-
The Storm Prediction Center has issued a slight risk for most of the
Southeast Sunday. The main risks will be widespread straight line wind
damage and hail. A few tornadoes cannot be ruled out. The same system
that is bringing snow and ice to the Central Plains will continue to
dive south bringing the cold air to the warm moist air in the gulf
creating strong instability. That coupled with decent wind shear will
create the opportunity for a line to form Sunday evening and overnight.
Expect a long narrow band of high precip and damaging winds to form into
a squall line with the chance of isolated tornadoes. Here is the risk
that the SPC has issued for tomorrow:
SUMMARY:
-
A lot going on out there today and tomorrow. Biggest concern for me
today is the rain/ice/snow mix falling this evening from Missouri to
West Virginia. Difficult travel conditions along with several power
outages can be expected. It's best to get home and stay there this
weekend. California has been experiencing heavy rain and isolated severe
weather yesterday. Today expect another round of rain, although I don't
expect totals today to be as high as yesterday. Stay off flooded roads
and take proper precautions for flooding in your area. Tomorrow evening
expect a line of thunderstorms to form and produce damaging winds and
hail for most areas. This most likely WILL be an overnight event, so
make sure your weather radios are on and you take proper precautions
before going to sleep. After these next few days, things should begin
to quiet down as high pressure will take control over most of the
central US. Stay safe!
Will Future Sunburst Unplug The Earth?
X-Class solar flares are measured on a G-scale from 1-5. A Category 4
or 5 geomagnetic storm has the potential, under just the right
circumstances, to bring down the grid. How likely? Here's an excerpt of a
story at
pressherald.com: "...
If
the remnants of a similar solar flare struck the planet today? “Gee,
I’d be without cable TV,” Melott deadpanned. Without email too, some
fear. No heating or cooling. No electric grid. Satellite technology, it
was nice knowing you. This is the scenario rolling out from a growing
network of scientists, policymakers and survivalists. Not quite doomsday
because life itself would continue, but a silent natural disaster that
could unplug us from all we depend upon..."
Photo credit above: "This
image shows a solar flare just as sunspot 1105 was turning away from
Earth on Sept. 8, 2010. The active region erupted, producing a solar
flare and a fantastic prominence." The Associated Press.
* photo above of an icy, eerie-looking Minnehaha Falls courtesy of Tracey Palmer.
