WeatherNation Headlines

Thursday, November 15, 2012

November 16: Thanksgiving Week Weather: "What November?"

Good Travel Weather

"Unusual travel suggestions are dancing lessons from God", wrote Bill Bryson - one of my favorite authors. I spent some time in Nicaragua and Columbia earlier this month. Every American should be forced to travel overseas. You come back to the USA with new eyes; a new appreciation for what we have, what we often take for granted.

My nervous tick kicks in around Thanksgiving, a time of year when building chill up north often conspires to spin up big, beefy storms, just in time to complicate turkey dinner with Grandma.

Not this year. For the next 1-2 weeks the weather map will look like something out of mid-October. The jet stream lifts north, meaning 50s - even a crack at 60 next Wednesday and the Saturday after Thanksgiving.

The latest Drought Monitor (below) shows most of the metro in severe drought; 100 percent of Minnesota is "abnormally dry".

Yesterday I witnessed smoke and smog from brushfires casting a pall on the downtown skyline. We need rain, badly, but a lack of arctic air will limit the ability for big storms to spin up anytime soon. The drought signal is still too strong.

In today's blog: the local NWS has increased the number of small tornadoes last Saturday to 4! Details below.

A Stubborn Drought. 100% of Minnesota is now classified as "abnormally dry", over 43% of the state in a severe drought, including most of the Twin Cities metro. Extreme drought covers most of southwestern Minnesota, extending into St. Cloud. The drought signal is pervasive, and will probably spill over into the first half of winter. Details from NOAA's U.S. Drought Monitor.

Aurora Watch. Thanks to Andrea Clarke in Saskatchewan for passing this along. The Northern Lights have been very visible (and vivid) in recent nights - worth a look tonight, as skies should be clear to partly cloudy.

And Then There Were Four. The local NWS office now counts 4 small (EF-0) tornadoes last Saturday, as a vigorous cold front plowed across the state. Doppler radar doesn't work nearly as well on small, brief tornadoes that spin up along a squall line - a very different scenario from classic (large) supercell thunderstorms, the isolated cells that spawn big tornadoes well in advance of the cold front during spring and summer. Here's more from the NWS: " There were two tornadoes in this region (map) that occurred Saturday night, November 10th. One was near Interstate 494 and Highway 13. The other tornado occurred near Lilydale, between Wachlter and Butler Ave, or paralleling Highway 13. Two areas of straight line wind damage occurred from near Dodd Road and Highway 110, northeast to Robert Street and Sidney Street; and along Highway 13, between Mendota and Lilydale. Both of the tornadoes had a path length of approximately one-half mile."

Misplaced Priorities. Maybe it's just me, but the media's sudden obsession with "the Petreus affair" seems way off-base, considering the carnage, heartache and loss on the east coast in the wake of Sandy. This web site sums up the hypocrisy of leading with lurid tales of sex at high levels, when hundreds of thousands of Americans are trying to put their lives back together again. It's worth a look.

Not Bad For Late November. The pattern looking out 10 days would look right at home in mid-October. Jet stream steering winds are lifting north into Canada, bottling bitter air many hundreds of miles north of Minnesota until further notice. Temperatures will run 5-15 F. above average thru the last weekend of November; a shot at 60 next Wednesday, again the Saturday after Thanksgiving. A cooler front may knock highs into the 40s next Thursday for turkey (and football) consumption, but a 50-degree high is possible on "Black Friday". Power shoppers lined up at Best Buy may only need a light jacket this year. Here's a shocker: no significant rain (or snow) is in sight.

Sandy Shook U.S. Like An Earthquake. How severe was Sandy? Powerful enough to physically shake the ground many hundreds of miles away. Here's an excerpt of an amazing article and animation at Our Amazing Planet: "Hurricane Sandy pummeled the United States from Florida to Wisconsin, and its fierce winds caused a vast swath of ground to shake, a new earthquake-monitoring animation shows. The visualization shows seismic stations lit up as the storm approached Florida on Oct. 26. The earthquake monitors detected rolling seismic waves caused by Sandy's fierce winds out at sea. The earthquake-monitoring network always "hears" a continuous hum of background noise generated in the ocean, called microseism, said Alex Hutko, a seismologist at the Incorporated Research Institutions for Seismology (IRIS) in Seattle, and creator of the Hurricane Sandy animation..."

Surging Storms: Can The US Adapt In Time To Avert Coastal Damage. I would hazard a guess that the short answer is an emphatic no. We're allowing people to build homes in high-risk coastal areas, and rebuild after major storms like Sandy on a consistent basis. Insanity is defined as doing the same thing over and over, expecting different results. Mandatory federal insurance is required for people living close to sea level, and taxpayers indirectly contribute to this ongoing treadmill of rebuilding. It's the third rail of politics - nobody wants to say it out loud, but too many people are building in areas prone to repeated storm surges from hurricanes and Nor'easters. Private insurance companies won't touch these policies - and for good reason. Here's an excerpt of an article at The Christian Science Monitor: "...Indeed, damage from tropical systems such as Sandy are projected to multiply by the end of the century as the population grows and people put more assets in harm's way. That's true whether or not global warming, which many researchers say is feeding extreme-weather events, is factored in. Tropical-cyclone damage now runs about $26 billion a year globally, according to a study published in January in the journal Nature Climate Change. By 2100, increases in population and wealth as economies grow could push that number to $56 billion a year, assuming little or no effort to adapt to the hazard..."

Photo credit above: "Houses in Bayhead, N.J., showed effects of Sandy Nov. 2. Rising populations and seas, and more severe weather, may mean $100 billion a year in global damage by 2100." Tim Larsen/New Jersey Governor’s Office/Reuters.

We Survived Hurricane Sandy. Now What? Here's a clip from a first-person account of Sandy at Huffington Post: "I live on the Texas Gulf Coast. I have lived through a lot of hurricanes and tropical storms. Yet last month, I flew into New York City for a hurricane. Why? Following my recent book launch, I had a lot of important media events, including a potentially game-changing TEDx talk, scheduled starting on October 30. This SQ work is my passion and mission. I didn't want to miss these events because of cancelled flights. So I left on the second-to-last flight out of Houston to Newark, and arrived at my hotel hoping that Sandy would be more hype than horror. As a storm veteran, I brought a flashlight, extra batteries, boxes of granola bars, and other food with me. I verified that the hotel had a backup generator just in case. I confirmed we were not in the Zone A evacuation area. I stocked up on some bottled water, filled the tub, and hunkered down. Over the next few days, the local news crew became my primary companions..."

Lake Effect Snow From Space. The high-resolution ("MODIS") satellite from NASA boasts resolutions as good as 250 meters. Here's an excerpt from a recent NOAA post describing favorable conditions for lake effect snow bands: "Snowfall reports from Cooperative Observers, Spotters, and Social Media indicated anywhere from 2-6 inches of snow fell over Northwest Upper Michigan as of the morning of 11/13. In addition, locations east of Munising near Lake Superior received up to 3 inches of snow (seen through the clouds from Pictured Rocks National Lakeshore to Newberry). The widespread area of Lake Effect Snow highlights the areas that are favored by West to Northwest winds, as the snow quickly diminished after passing over the Huron Mountains (produced just a light dusting in Marquette). This was due to the combination of downslope wind off the higher terrain and the snow showers being removed from the influence of Lake Superior. This lack of snow continued to the east of Marquette until the Pictured Rocks National Lakeshore, where the West-Northwest winds allowed a long enough residence time over Lake Superior to produce lake effect snow. To see a listing of snowfall reports from this lake effect snow, click here."

Thanksgiving Preview. ECMWF model data (courtesy of WSI) shows unusually mild, dry weather across most of the USA next Thursday; slightly cooler air dribbling southward from Fargo to the Twin Cities. The only rain in the extended outlook: Pacific Northwest, from Seattle to Portland. Old Man Winter will continue to pull his punch over the Lower 48 States thru the last weekend of November.

"Indoor Clouds". Here's an excerpt of a fascinating post (and experiment) at mashable.com: "Dutch artist Berndnaut Smilde has developed a way to create clouds indoors by carefully regulating the space’s humidity, temperature and light. This intersection of science and art was recently named one of TIME magazine’s “Best Inventions of the Year 2012.” The fluffy white clouds are summoned up temporarily using a fog machine, creating a surreal experience in the middle of a room. Smilde has created his clouds inside different types of locations, ranging from corridors and hallways, to bedrooms and common spaces..."

"Set impossible challenges. Then catch up with them" - Sir Richard Branson

Climate Stories....

Has Obama Turned A Corner On Climate Change? The story from The Christian Science Monitor; here's an excerpt: "...If the message is somehow we’re going to ignore jobs and growth simply to address climate change, I don’t think anybody’s going to go for that," Obama said. "I won’t go for that." Obama dismissed the inverse relationship some ascribe to environmentalism and job growth. The president instead endorsed an agenda that both advances economic growth while making "a serious dent in climate change." In what is likely an allusion to hurricane Sandy, Obama emphasized the importance of long-term, proactive investments in infrastructure as a means of reducing the reconstruction costs incurred by extreme weather events..."

Photo credit: "President Obama leaves the East Room of the White House in Washington, Wednesday, following his first news conference after his reelection. Mr. Obama addressed the subject of climate change at some length in response to a reporter's question." Jacquelyn Martin/AP

Be Persuasive. Be Brave. Be Arrested (if necessary). Think climate change can't effect your investment portfolio? Think again. Here's a clip of a thought-provoking paper and warning at nature.com: "I have yet to meet a climate scientist who does not believe that global warming is a worse problem than they thought a few years ago. The seriousness of this change is not appreciated by politicians and the public. The scientific world carefully measures the speed with which we approach the cliff and will, no doubt, carefully measure our rate of fall. But it is not doing enough to stop it. I am a specialist in investment bubbles, not climate science. But the effects of climate change can only exacerbate the ecological trouble I see reflected in the financial markets — soaring commodity prices and impending shortages..."

America's Carbon Compromise. Here's an excerpt of a new paper at Nature: "This week, a reinvigorated Barack Obama returned to the White House knowing that he was poised on the edge of a fiscal cliff. Rather than relishing his victory last week, Obama must immediately set about crafting a compromise on deficit reduction with congressional leaders. The stakes could hardly be higher — for science, for US citizens and, indeed, for the world. In the event of failure, a budgetary time-bomb of tax increases and sweeping budget cuts will detonate on 2 January. As well as resulting in indiscriminate cuts to funds for scientific research and many other areas, it could knock the United States back into recession and deliver yet another blow to an already fragile global economy..." Image: Clean Technica.

Obama Says He Will Elevate National Climate Change "Conversation". Here's an excerpt from a story at Climate Science Watch: "A New York Times reporter asked President Obama at his White House news conference today: "What specifically do you plan to do in a second term to tackle the issue of climate change?" The President's reply included this: "What I'm going to be doing over the next several weeks, next several months, is having a conversation, a wide-ranging conversation with scientists, engineers, and elected officials to find out what can -- what more can we do to make a short-term progress in reducing carbons, and then working through an education process that I think is necessary -- a discussion, a conversation across the country about what realistically can we do long term to make sure that this is not something we're passing on to future generations that's going to be very expensive and very painful to deal with."

"Time To Do Something About The Weather". Here's an excerpt of a timely Op-Ed at Milwaukee's Journal Sentinel: "There was precious little discussion of climate change during the presidential campaign and most other political races this year. That may strike some as a little surprising, given the weather that's been plaguing much of the nation over the past couple of years, which has cost billions of dollars of damage and taken hundreds of lives. Maybe politicians think that climate change has become the new third rail of politics (it used to be Social Security, but these days everyone's talking about Social Security), but on this issue they're way behind everyone else. They need to catch up and start making some real proposals on how to mitigate both the trend and the effects - and they need to start doing so as soon as new members are seated in Congress and President Barack Obama renews his oath in January. The people are paying attention. According to a national survey released Tuesday, a large majority of Americans (77%) say global warming should be a "very high," "high" or "medium" priority for the president and Congress..."

Sunday, November 11, 2012

November 12th: Cold Continues, Warming by End of Week; Nor'easter Developing by Thanksgiving?

Monday, November 12th, 2012

Here's the cold front that we're dealing with... quite a front, eh? Temperatures within a few hundred mild span are nearly 50F different!

24 Hour Temp Change

Impressive 24 hour temperature changes were common across the mid-section of the nation on Sunday. In some cases, there were 50F swings. The graphic below is just a snapshot of how dramatic it was at one point Sunday.

Snow From Space

This is what the visible satellite revealed on Sunday as skies began to clear across the Plains. That white strip you see is the large snow swath that was deposited from the powerful Pacific storm. There was quite a bit more across parts of Montana and other mountainous states, but this is what it looked like east of the Rockies.

Severe Weather

With such a dynamic system, severe weather isn't all that uncommon/unusual. Take a look at the storm report map from over the weekend.

Nasty Storms

This is just a sample of what some of the thunderstorms looked like. The radar image below was from Saturday night as a line of straight line wind producing storms rolled through the Twin Cities. There were several reports of damage; uprooted trees, downed power lines and structural damage.

Twin Cities Damage Reports

These are the storm reports from around the Twin Cities as the moved through Saturday night.

See more from the SPC HERE:

0500 UNK LAKEVILLE DAKOTA MN 4468 9324 TREES DOWN. TIME ESTIMATED. (MPX)
0500 UNK BURNSVILLE DAKOTA MN 4476 9328 TREES DOWN. TIME ESTIMATED. (MPX)
0503 UNK 1 S BURNSVILLE DAKOTA MN 4475 9328 STRUCTURAL DAMAGE TO RESIDENTIAL HOUSE ... SHINGLES OFF. (MPX)
0503 UNK 1 NNW MENDOTA HEIGHTS DAKOTA MN 4490 9315 STRUCTURAL DAMGE TO SENIOR RESIDENTS ... ROOF DAMAGE. FRESH LAID SOD WAS PILED UP NEXT TO BUILDING. TEMPORARY EVACUATION FOR STRUCTURAL ASSESSMENT. (MPX)
0506 UNK EAGAN DAKOTA MN 4482 9316 TREES DOWN. TIME ESTIMATED. (MPX)
0506 UNK INVER GROVE HEIGHTS DAKOTA MN 4483 9306 TREES DOWN. TIME ESTIMATED. (MPX)
0512 UNK LILYDALE DAKOTA MN 4492 9313 LILYDALE POOL AND YACHT CLUB ... CANOPY TORN OFF. DECK FURNITURE DAMAGED. MINOR STRUCTURAL DAMAGE INCLUDING A BROKEN ENTRY DOOR. (MPX)
0515 UNK SOUTH ST PAUL DAKOTA MN 4489 9304 TREES AND POWER LINES DOWN. TIME ESTIMATED. (MPX)
0515 UNK MOUNDS VIEW RAMSEY MN 4511 9321 TREES DOWN. TIME ESTIMATED. (MPX)
0516 70 ST PAUL RAMSEY MN 4495 9310 (MPX)
0516 UNK ST PAUL RAMSEY MN 4495 9310 NUMEROUS REPORTS OF LARGE TREES DOWN AND DUMPSTERS IN STREET. NEAR ST PAUL AIR PORT. TIME ESTIMATED. (MPX)
0520 UNK MAHTOMEDI WASHINGTON MN 4506 9296 NUMEROUS TREES DOWN AND POWER LINES DOWN. TIME ESTIMATED.

Monday Severe Weather Outlook

The good news is that the severe weather threat for Monday should be minimize quite a bit. It appears as if the cold front will lose some of its punch as it works east of the Mississippi Valley. It'll still be quite a cool front, but the severe weather threat looks to be diminished by quite a margin! The area in green below is a general thunderstorm outlook for Monday, note that there is no organized severe thunderstorms forecast!

Forecast Highs - Post Cold Front

Considering how warm it was over the weekend east of the Mississippi Valley, temperatures Monday and Tuesday will be quite a bit cooler.

Highs Monday:

Highs Tuesday:

Precipitation Forecast

As the front pushes east, showers and storms will head east along with it. NOAA's HPC 5 day precipitation forecast suggests up to 2" in a few spots across the Lower Mississippi Valley early this week. Note also the next sure of Pacific moisture moving into the NW!

Developing Nor'Easter?

I hope this is just a hiccup in the weather models, but the latest GFS models is hinting at a developing storm across the eastern seaboard a few days prior to Thanksgiving. It's not set in stone yet and I hope it's wrong, but it's something to watch especially if you have travel plans next week!

Thanks for checking in, have a great week ahead!

Don't forget to follow me on Twitter @TNelsonWNTV

Thank You Veterans! Wild Weather Continues

Sunday, November 11th, 2012

Thanks to a powerhouse Pacific stor, we had some wild weather across the Upper Midwest yesterday. Here is a just a sample of some of the extremes!

Crosby, ND: 18" of snow

Duluth, MN: 15ft. waves open water (10ft. near shore)

Minneapolis, MN: 69F record high at MSP Airport

Large Pacific Storm

The big circular ball moving into southern Canada is the storm that is causing all the problems. The large temperature difference from north to south is what is helping to intensify the storm even more.

Highest Snow Tallies

For those on the NW side of the storm, heavy snow tallies racked up to the tune of 1ft. to almost 2ft. - here are some of the heaviest snow tallies reported east of the Rockies.

Wild November Storms

November is typically the time of year when large storms gather strength across North America. Take a look at the weather map from November 10th,1940! WOW, what a storm! This will be remembered as the Armistice Day Blizzard of 1940:

"The blizzard that struck the Midwest in November 1940 was the type of snow storm that engenders legends. Fall was extremely mild and across the Upper Midwest temperatures were well above normal on the morning of November 11th. So warm that at 7:30 in the morning the temperature at Chicago was 55 degrees Fahrenheit, and at Davenport Iowa the temperature was 54. Armistice Day 1940 was a perfect opportunity for many individuals to enjoy the mild respite before winter. Little did they know the most infamous duck hunt in American history was about to unfold. When the storm exited the region over a foot of snow had fallen, and more than 150 people and thousands of livestock were dead."

Remembering the 1940 Armistice Day Blizzard

This is a great account from wildfowlmag.com during the Armistice Day Blizzard:

"Imagine, if possible, that day on the waters of the Mississippi or a tributary, without today’s technology. No outboard motor, no cell phone, no high-tech warm clothing, only a man-powered wooden boat for transportation. Those hunters and fishermen caught offshore did every
thing possible to keep from freezing to death. They burned decoys, blinds and even boats. In the end, 163 people perished, and many others were scarred for life."

Read the full story HERE:

(“Armistice Day Blizzard” by Michael Sieve. artwork provided courtesy of the artist and Wild Wings. www.wildwings.com)

#2 on the Top 5 Weather Events of the 20th Century for Minnesota

"The Armistice Day Blizzard Ranks #2 on the Minnesota State Climatology Office Top five weather events of the 20th century. Ask any Minnesotan born before 1940 and they can tell you where they were during the Armistice Day Blizzard."

Friday, November 9, 2012

Major Winter Storm Continues; Thunder Potential Increases for Southern MN

Saturday, November 10th, 2012

Our next major storm continues to wrap up over the mid-section of the nation. Heavy snow on its northwest flank and a chance of strong to severe storms on its warmer, more unstable southeast flank later Saturday. Thanks to @MTGjh for the picture below out of Montana, where driving conditions were quite hazardous on Friday. Unfortunately, I don't see them getting much better on Saturday. In fact, driving conditions will worsen for a number of other folks as the major winter storm expands east through the High Plains. For folks that live in colder climates, the image below probably isn't all that uncommon and I'm sure there are several people that aren't too excited about winter weather returning in the not too distant future.

Over a Foot in Great Falls, MT

Thanks to the National Weather Service out of Great Falls, MT for the info below:

"Over a foot of snow has fallen since Thursday morning at the NWS forecast office in Great Falls. Breezy north winds have been blowing and drifting the snow this afternoon."

See the full video HERE:

Several Weather Headlines

The map below is fairly impressive. These are all the weather headlines that have been posted by various National Weather Service sites across the nation. Note how the map is quite a bit more lit up in the west due to a strong Pacific storm moving into the mid-section of the nation. Also note how things have quieted down, thankfully, across the eastern part of the country. Folks out there need SEVERAL quite days (or more) to get their feet back under them!

Mountain Snow

Not only are the High Plains getting snow, but this large storm is spreading the weath to those in Utah, Colorado and California! Thanks to Sugar Bowl Resort in Norden, CA for the picture below where opening day is only a few short weeks away! This latest snow will certainly help out for their December 12th projected open.

See more from Sugar Bowl Resort HERE:

The Big Dump...

Large storms tend to not be disrupted as much as weaker storms as they cross over the Rocky Mountains. Moisture is plentiful even when the mountains gobble up their share. The GFS snow solution suggests quite a dump across parts of Montana and North Dakota.

Large Pacific Storm

Just to give you an idea of what we're dealing with here, take a look at the 500mb vorticity map below, which shows how much spin there is in the atmosphere. That large "U" shape across the western half of the country is the storm, the effects of which will be felt as far south as Arizona and New Mexico!

Weekend Precipitation

As the storm swings inland, precipitation will hardly be sparse for a number of locations east of the Rockies. I could see several spots picking up a much needed 1" to 2" of precipitation through PM Sunday. Note the 'comma' shape to the precipitation pattern. This is the sign of a large, well defined, mid-latitude cyclone. These types of system also tend to tap Gulf of Mexico moisture for enhanced rainfall/thunder potential across the Plains.

Weekend Severe Potential

Dynamic storms system, such as this one, have a greater potential to create more wild weather. Because the temperature difference across the front will be so great and because it'll be able to tap enough moisture from the Gulf of Mexico, we may have to watch out for a few strong to severe storms this weekend. The Storm Prediction Center has issued a SLIGHT RISK of severe weather Saturday and Sunday for areas shaded in yellow below. You might think it's a little strange to see severe weather at this time of the year, but in fact, we typically have a secondary severe weather season as these types of system emerge. Dwindling daylight across the Arctic regions has the cold air resivoir buidling rapidly and as the cold air bulids, stronger storm systems develop in order to 'try' to distribute this air south, in return sending warmer air north.

Saturday Severe Potential

Sunday Severe Potential

Big Temp Tumble

This front will likely bring some of the coldest air of the season. For example: Minneapolis, MN will likely have high temperatures on Monday around 30F - that will be the coldest daytime high since early March!

Highs Saturday

Highs Sunday

Highs Monday

November 10th, 1975 - Edmund Fitzgerald Sinks on Lake Superior

Saturday in the anniversary of the sinking of the Edmund Fitzerald in 1975. Interesting to note that we're dealing with a fairly similar storm this weekend. Gale Warnings have been posted for parts of Lake Superior this weekend!

1975 Weather Map

On November 10, 1975 the SS Edmund Fitzgerald sank in Lake Superior. All 29 crew members died. At the time, it was the worst shipping disaster on the Great Lakes in 11 years. Other shipping disasters on the Great Lakes, in which weather played a role include:

Nov. 11, 1913: eighteen ships were lost killing 254 people.
Nov. 11-13, 1940: 57 men died when three freighters sank in Lake Michigan.
Nov. 18 1958: 33 men died on Lake Michigan with the sinking of the Carl D. Bradley.
Nov. 29, 1966: Daniel J. Morrell sank in Lake Huron killing the 28 crew members.