Combination of golf ball size hail AND 60 mph
straight-line winds resulted in severe hail damage in Eden Prairie,
Edina and Bloomington - billions of ice chunks propelled to the ground
with far more force than during a typical thunderstorm (not accompanied
by a severe gust front).
"...
Since records have been kept in 1880, all 10 of the warmest years ever have been in the past 15 years, NOAA records show..." - from a story focused on a summary of 2012 global weather and climate statistics from NBC News.
Storm Stories
Living in Minnesota is like playing the Weather
Lotto on a daily basis. "Will my home be damaged?" "Will beachball-size
hail turn my vehicle into tapioca pudding?" "Will rain turn my commute
into a slow-motion nightmare?"
Any hail greater than 1 inch in diameter is
capable of damage. Edina saw 2 inch hail, golf ball-size, from Tuesday's
severe "supercell" storm, which we tracked all the way from near Fargo.
As mentioned above, the (severe) hail damage in Eden Prairie and Edina
was the result of the combination of ping pong size hail and
straight-line winds topping 60 mph turning those ice-chunks into tiny
artillery shells.
Tip-offs that a storm is especially severe:
nearly continuous lightning (non-stop static on your AM radio) - and a
"shelf cloud": an ominous, low-hanging, shovel-like appendage, which
suggests potentially damaging straight-line winds. A Tornado Watch was
posted Tuesday, another tip-off that storms could turn violent.
My best advice? Pay attention, to local media,
NOAA web sites and smartphone apps. There are steps you can take to be
more weather-aware.
A T-shower may sprout later today ahead of the
next cool front, a push of (fresh!) air that may leave you rummaging for
a sweatshirt Friday. Although cool for a dip in the lake, the sun
should be out Saturday - showers may brush southern Minnesota Sunday. No
90s are brewing, but we may sample 80F next week. A/C optional.
Metro Area Cleaning Up After Hailstorm Downed Trees, Shattered Glass.
What made the severe storm so damaging late Tuesday was the combination
of large (ping pong size) and severe straight-line winds in the 60+ mph
range, which turned those hailstones into billions of wind-swept
battering rams. Here's a good summary from
The Star Tribune: "
Hundreds
of people in the Twin Cities worked to clean up downed trees,
shattered glass, and other debris Wednesday, scrambling to find out if
their insurance would pay to repair the damage caused by a fierce
hailstorm. More than 70,000 Xcel customers lost power at some point
during the Tuesday night storm and its aftermath, most of them
concentrated in Eden Prairie, Edina, St. Louis Park and Bloomington.
By Wednesday evening, refrigerators were humming and lights were
glowing in all but a few thousand of those homes. Traffic signals in Minneapolis
also went dark Tuesday night, causing motorists to drive gingerly
through many intersections until power was restored late Wednesday
morning..."
Photo credit above: "The rear window was shattered on a new Chevy
Cruze at Suburban Chevy, where every single car, (around 1000) were
hail damaged at the Chevy store and nearby Metropolitan Ford in Eden
Praire after yesterday's severe storms."
ECMWF Guidance. The Euro is hinting at a few showers
or T-showers today (much smaller risk of severe storms than Tuesday);
another chance Sunday. More significant rain and embedded storms are
likely the latter half of next week as warmer, more humid air approaches
from the Plains.
Plan B Sunday? I'm not convinced we're going to see a
washout Sunday, but models suggest a few hours of showers, with the
best chance of puddles over southern Minnesota. Otherwise, it's a dry
forecast Friday, Saturday, and Monday and Tuesday of next week.
Midday Sunday. ECMWF guidance, valid midday Sunday,
shows a weak wave of low pressure tracking along a nearly stationary
front just south of Minnesota. The result may be a few hours of showers,
best chance morning hours - especially southern Minnesota. Map: WSI.
Same Old Story. A persistent frontal boundary,
seemingly glued in place, separates almost September-like air over the
northern USA from hot, tropical air over the Deep South. A series of
weak storms ripping along this boundary will spark more heavy rain, some
4-5" amounts from eastern Kansas into the Ohio Valley, complicating and
prolonging flooding problems. 5-Day QPF: NOAA.
In Search Of A Warm Front. Highs approach 80 next
week, closer to average, and long-range GFS guidance shows some upper
80s, maybe a 90 or two, by August 20-22. I still suspect we'll see a
couple more hot fronts in late August and even early September.
NOAA: 2012 Was One Of The 10 Warmest Years On Record Globally. Another data point; details from
NOAA: "
Worldwide,
2012 was among the 10 warmest years on record according to the 2012
State of the Climate report released online today by the American
Meteorological Society (AMS). The peer-reviewed report, with scientists
from NOAA’s National Climatic Data Center in Asheville, N.C., serving as lead editors, was compiled by 384 scientists from 52 countries (highlights, full report).
It provides a detailed update on global climate indicators, notable
weather events, and other data collected by environmental monitoring
stations and instruments on land, sea, ice, and sky. “Many of the events
that made 2012 such an interesting year are part of the long-term
trends we see in a changing and varying climate — carbon levels are
climbing, sea levels are rising, Arctic sea ice is melting, and our
planet as a whole is becoming a warmer place," said Acting NOAA
Administrator Kathryn D. Sullivan, Ph.D. “This annual report is
well-researched, well-respected, and well-used; it is a superb example
of the timely, actionable climate information that people need from
NOAA to help prepare for extremes in our ever-changing environment..."
State of the Climate in 2012 Report available
here.
Image credit above: "
Wrangel Island, Chukchi Sea, in the
early morning (left). Trees take hold as permafrost thaws near the
Altai Mountains in Russia (right). These photos are from the covers of
the 2012 State of the Climate Report, edited by scientists from NOAA's
National Climatic Data Center and published in the Bulletin of the
American Meteorological Society." Photo Credit: Kate Stafford, Sergey Kirpotin - Tomsk State University, Terry Callaghan - EU-Interact
World Continues To Broil, NOAA's 2012 Report On Warming Finds. Here's an excerpt from a comprehensive story at
NBC News: "
A
new massive federal study says the world in 2012 sweltered with
continued signs of climate change. Rising sea levels, snow melt, heat
buildup in the oceans, and melting Arctic sea ice and Greenland ice
sheets, all broke or nearly broke records, but temperatures only
sneaked into the top 10. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric
Administration on Tuesday issued a peer-reviewed 260-page report, which
agency chief Kathryn Sullivan calls its annual "checking on the pulse
of the planet." The report, written by 384 scientists around the
world, compiles data already released, but it puts them in context of
what's been happening to Earth over decades. "It's critically
important to compile a big picture," National Climatic Data Center
director Tom Karl says. "The signs that we see are of a warming world..."
Image credit above: Dan Pisut / NOAA Environmental Visualization Lab. "
Surface temperatures in 2012 compared with the temperature average from 1981 to 2010."
State Of The Climate 2012. In today's
Climate Matters
video segment we highlight some of the main findings in NOAA's summary
of global weather in 2012; the warmest on record for the USA and 8th/9th
warmest, worldwide: "
WeatherNationTV Chief Meteorologist Paul
Douglas goes over some of the highlights from the recently released
State of the Climate. Hundreds of climate scientists contributed to the
report and the news isn't promising."
Drought Is Transforming New Mexico Into Desert. The trends are unmistakable, as documented by The Los Angeles Times and
Salon; here's an excerpt: "
Los Angeles Times reporter Julie Cart
traveled to the Rio Grande Valley, where animals are dying, crops are
failing and the Rio Grande has been nicknamed the “Rio Sand.” People
are subsisting on trucked-in water or attempting to dig deep wells that
cost upwards of $100,000.The question many here are grappling with is
whether the changes are a permanent result of climate change or part
of cyclical weather cycle. [Chuck] Jones, a member of the governor’s
drought task force, is cautious about identifying three years of
extreme drought as representing a new climate pattern for New Mexico.
It could be a multi-year aberration. Nonetheless, most long-term plans
put together by cattle ranchers, farmers and land managers include the
probability that the drought is here to stay..."
Photo credit:
City of Albuquerque/Flickr)
Reverse! Sun's Magnetic Field On The Brink Of 180-Degree Flip. Because there isn't nearly enough to worry about out there. The Washington Post's
Capital Weather Gang has the story - here's the introduction: "
It’s
nearly time for the current solar cycle’s second half. And stunningly,
the sun’s magnetic field will rearrange itself to mark the transition.
“The sun’s polar magnetic fields weaken, go to zero, and then emerge
again with the opposite polarity,” Stanford solar physicist Phil
Scherrer tells NASA.
The flip could happen at any time. “It looks like we’re no more than 3
to 4 months away from a complete field reversal,” solar physicist Todd
Hoeksema of Stanford University tells NASA.
NASA describes the flip as a “big event” as the field reversal emits a
current stream that extends billions of miles beyond Pluto. The flip
won’t affect weather on Earth, but space weather may get a bit bumpy..." (Image credit: NASA).
False Sense Of Security: Your TV, Car, Neighborhood May Be Hackable. I'm not sure who would want to hack my TV and see my DirecTV viewing schedule, but hey, have at it! Here's a clip from
gizmag.com: "
The
cyber security convention DefCon and its corporate counterpart, Black
Hat, that are held annually in Las Vegas present a unique tableau where
the traditional (and traditionally overstated) conflict between
underground hacking culture and corporate and government security
professionals is suspended with the goal of openness and education. If
you enjoy and own technology and gadgets of any kind, the conferences
highlight a looming security crossroads that affects every layperson.
Gizmag takes a look at some of the more important hacks from this year..."
Image credit above: "
DefCon and Black Hat highlight the
fact that companies often seem more concerned about the appearance of
security rather than the reality." (Photo:
Shutterstock)
FAA Clears Drones For Civilian Use. Because who doesn't want their own, personal drone? More details from our geeky friends at
gizmag.com: "
Despite
being constantly in the news, UAVs haven’t been seen much in the skies
of the US except in military training areas or by law enforcement
agencies. That’s beginning to change, with the Federal Aviation
Administration (FAA) announcing that is has issued operating permits for
a pair of civilian unmanned aircraft to a company based in Alaska. The
two unmanned aircraft are the AeroVironment Puma, which is a
hand-launched, battery powered UAV that uses an electro-optical and
infrared video camera for surveillance, and the other is the Boeing
Insitu ScanEagle; a small, long-endurance craft based on a fish-spotting
design..."
Photo credit: "
A ScanEagle in service with the US Army." (Image: Boeing).
Amazon Founder Says He Clicked On Washington Post By Mistake. I really like comedian Andy Borowitz's take on the recent purchase at
The New Yorker; here's an excerpt: "
SEATTLE (The Borowitz Report)—Jeff Bezos, the founder of Amazon.com,
told reporters today that his reported purchase of the Washington Post
was a “gigantic mix-up,” explaining that he had clicked on the newspaper
by mistake. “I guess I was just kind of browsing through their website
and not paying close attention to what I was doing,” he said. “No way
did I intend to buy anything.” Mr. Bezos said he had been oblivious to
his online shopping error until earlier today, when he saw an unusual
charge for two hundred and fifty million dollars on his American
Express statement..."
Climate Stories...
NOAA Report Says Arctic Sea Ice Is Disappearing At Unprecedented Rate.
The Guardian has the story - here's a clip: "...
The biggest changes in the climate in 2012 were in the Arctic and in Greenland,
said the report, which is an annual exercise by a team of American and
British scientists. The Arctic warmed at about twice the rate of lower
latitudes, the report found. By June 2012, snow cover had fallen to
its lowest levels since the record began. By September 2012, sea-ice
cover had retreated to its lowest levels since the beginning of
satellite records, falling to 1.32 million square miles. That was, the
report noted, a whopping 18% lower than the previous low, set in 2007,
and a staggering 54% lower than the mark for 1980. The changes were
widespread on land as well, with record warm permafrost temperatures in Alaska
and in the Canadian Arctic, the report's authors noted. On 11 July
last year, Greenland experienced surface melting on 97% of the ice
sheet. The record-breaking events indicate an era of "new normal" for
the climate, the researchers said..."
Photo credit above: "
By September 2012, sea-ice cover in the Arctic had fallen to its lowest level since the beginning of satellite records." Photo: Steven J Kazlowski/Alamy.
Highlights From NOAA's 2012 State Of The Climate. An executive summary is
here.
Climate Change On Pace To Occur 10 Times Faster Than Any Change Recorded In The Past 65 Million Years. Here's a clip from
Stanford University: "
Not
only is the planet undergoing one of the largest climate changes in
the past 65 million years, Stanford climate scientists Noah Diffenbaugh
and Chris Field report that it's on pace to occur at a rate 10 times
faster than any change in that period. Without intervention, this
extreme pace could lead to a 5-6 degree Celsius spike in annual
temperatures by the end of the century. The planet is undergoing one of
the largest changes in climate since the dinosaurs went extinct. But
what might be even more troubling for humans, plants and animals is the
speed of the change. Stanford climate scientists warn that the likely
rate of change over the next century will be at least 10 times quicker
than any climate shift in the past 65 million years..."
Image credit above: "
The top map shows global temperatures
in the late 21st century, based on current warming trends. The bottom
map illustrates the velocity of climate change, or how far species in
any given area will need to migrate by the end of the 21st century to
experience climate similar to present." Courtesy Stanford University.
Study Questions Nature's Ability To "Self-Correct" Climate Change. Here's a clip from a story at
ScienceDaily: "
Forests
have a limited capacity to soak up atmospheric carbon dioxide,
according to a new study from Northern Arizona University. The study,
available online in the journal New Phytologist, aimed to explore how
rising atmospheric carbon dioxide could alter the carbon and nitrogen
content of ecosystems. By performing tests on subtropical woodland plots
over an 11-year period, the researchers found that ecosystem carbon
uptake was not significantly increased by the high CO2 treatment—in
contrast to expectations. While plants did contain more carbon when CO2
levels were increased, soil actually lost carbon due to microbial
decomposition; both factors essentially balanced one another out..."
Just The Facts, Madam, The Facts Won't Do. Here's an excerpt of an interesting post from Bart Verhaggen at
My View On Climate Change: "
Climate
science is hardly the only issue on which the public has a vastly
different view than the relevant experts. Chris Mooney writes:
Surveys that measure the public’s views on evolution, climate
change, the big bang and even the idea that the Earth revolves around
the sun yield a huge gap between what science tells us and what the
public believes.
But contrary to what many scientists think, more information doesn’t necessarily lead to the public accepting the scientific view:
Take climate change. The battle over global warming has raged for more
than a decade, with experts still stunned by the willingness of their
political opponents to distort scientific conclusions. They conclude,
not illogically, that they’re dealing with a problem of misinformation
or downright ignorance — one that can be fixed only by setting the
record straight..."
Study: Watching Fox News Makes You Distrust Climate Scientists.
Breaking news? Probably not, but now there's some empirical evidence
and polling data to prove the claim. Here's an excerpt from
Mother Jones: "
In the past several years, a number of polls have documented the huge gap
between liberals and conservatives when it comes to their acceptance
of the science of climate change. Naturally, then, researchers have
increasingly turned their attention to trying to explain this dramatic
divide over what is factually true. And it wasn't long before they homed
in on the role of conservative media in particular—thus, a number of
studies (e.g., here) show that watching Fox News increases your risk of holding incorrect beliefs about the science of climate change. Now, a new paper
just out in the journal Public Understanding of Science takes this
line of inquiry further, beginning to unpack precisely how conservative
media work to undermine the public's acceptance of science. The paper
shows that a distrust of climate scientists is a significant factor
underlying the modern denial of global warming, and moreover, that
watching Fox News and listening to Rush Limbaugh both increase one's
level of distrust of these scientific experts..."
