"...
Some of the human-induced changes are occurring 100 times
faster than they occur in nature," Trenberth says. "And this is one of
the things that worries me more than climate change itself. It's
actually the rate of change that's most worrying..." - NCAR climate scientist Kevin Trenberth in a recent NPR article; details below.
Sweat-On-A-Stick
Two weeks ago I found myself on an (annoyed)
horse near Pine River, clad in a sweatshirt on a cool 50-degree morning -
marveling at frost reports near Embarrass.
"Can't you warm it up Paul?!!" my friends whined. Yep.
Here comes a record-setting late-season heat
wave; afternoon highs may reach 95-100F. According to the local National
Weather Service this may well be the hottest Minnesota State Fair since
1948, when we endured 4 days hotter than 94F at the State Fair.
An Excessive Heat Watch is posted from Sunday
afternoon into Wednesday evening, when 90s coupled with a dew point
topping 70F will make it feel like 95-105F in the shade. Yes, the lake
will look extra-inviting in the days to come.
ECMWF guidance hints at two distinct pulses of
coma-inducing heat, one "wave" the first half of this week, a second
surge of mid to upper 90s next weekend. I wouldn't be a bit shocked to
see a 100-degree high within 72 hours.
Question: is it bad form to SLEEP in the lake? I'm about to find out.
A stray T-storm is possible this morning, but don't expect much rain into Labor Day. It'll be too hot & stable overhead.
Heading to the Fair? My advice: go early and avoid alcohol. Stay hydrated.
Have fun!
Record Highs at MSP:
Sunday: 94 (1948)
Monday: 94 (1948)
Tuesday: 99 (1926:
Wednesday: 94 (1955)
Excessive Heat Watch. Not today, but from Sunday
afternoon into Wednesday evening, when the combination of mid to upper
90s + dew points near 70F will create a heat index as high as 105F.
Details from the Twin Cities NWS:
...EXCESSIVE HEAT WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING...
AN EXCESSIVE HEAT WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING.
* TEMPERATURE: AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES INCREASING TO BETWEEN 95
AND 105 WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS ONLY FALLING BACK INTO THE 70S.
* IMPACTS: THE HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL LEAD TO A
HEIGHTENED RISK OF HEAT RELATED STRESS AND ILLNESS...
ESPECIALLY FOR THE YOUNG AND ELDERLY...THOSE WITHOUT AIR
CONDITIONING...AND PEOPLE PARTICIPATING IN STRENUOUS OUTDOOR
ACTIVITIES.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
AN EXCESSIVE HEAT WATCH MEANS THAT A PROLONGED PERIOD OF HOT
TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED. THE COMBINATION OF HOT TEMPERATURES AND
HIGH HUMIDITY WILL COMBINE TO CREATE A DANGEROUS SITUATION IN
WHICH HEAT ILLNESSES ARE POSSIBLE. DRINK PLENTY OF FLUIDS...STAY
IN AN AIR-CONDITIONED ROOM...STAY OUT OF THE SUN...AND CHECK UP
ON RELATIVES AND NEIGHBORS.
Sunday Highs: Grilled or Extra Crispy? Here is the
model spread for Sunday afternoon, courtesy of Smart Energy. Predicted
highs range from nearly 92F (GFSMOS) to 95F (GFS) to a whopping 102F
(NAM model). I suspect upper 90s, but a few spots west and northwest of
MSP may hit 100F (air temperature) Sunday afternoon.
Best Chance Of 100 Degrees: Sunday & Monday.
Models are fairly consistent in pulling the mercury to 100F Sunday and
Monday. If the sun is out and a gusty south/southwest wind is blowing
we'll at least see upper 90s. Very slight relief is likely by Wednesday
and Thursday, highs only near 90F. A new definition for a "cool front".
Graph: Iowa State.
Hottest Of Summer. Models are hinting at a heat
index (factoring air temperature and dew point) as high as 105F. Sunday
and Monday, before "cooling" into the low to mid 90s by Wednesday and
Thursday. This will be dangerous for anyone without access to A/C or a
cooling center (or lake). Check in on older friends, family and
neighbors to make sure they're doing OK early in the week.
The risk of heat exhaustion and sometimes fatal heat stroke will be high.
Sunday Heat Bubble. 102 in the Twin Cities tomorrow?
I'm not convinced (yet) it's going to get THAT hot, but even if this is
off by 5F we may still see upper 90s close to home Sunday afternoon.
Will a few towns in central and west central Minnesota hit 100F Sunday?
Probably. 2-meter forecast highs for Sunday courtesy of WeatherBELL.
Hottest Minnesota State Fair Since 1948? My
advice: go in the morning, get there as early as you can, and don't wait
around for the hyper-dog-days of late summer. Here's an excerpt from a
post at the local Twin Cities
National Weather Service: "
Although
it is not rare to have temperatures sneak into the mid 90s for a day
during late August, it is extremely rare to have mid 90s for a stretch
of several days. This potentially record-setting heat will likely
persist from Sunday through Thursday of next week, when heat indices of
95 to 100 are also anticipated."
Too Hot For (Much) Rain. There's a slight chance of a
shower or T-storm today as hot air surges into Minnesota, a better
chance over central and northern Minnesota. After that I don't see a
significant chance (opportunity) for widespread rain into much of next
week. The reason? The upper atmosphere will be too hot, dry and stable
for convection. A second surge of heat expands northward late in the
week, just in time for potentially record-setting heat into Labor Day.
Remembering A Remarkable Super-Typhoon - And a "Category 6" Hurricane Isn't As Laughable As It Sounds.
Looking at some of the most extreme typhoons (hurricanes) to impact the
western Pacific in 40 years you could make an argument that we've
already experienced a handful of "Cat 6" storms by merely extrapolating
the current Saffir Simpson scale. 190 mph sustained winds? That's one
extra-hefty Category 5. Does it matter? When calculating ultimate storm
surge and sea level rise, yes, it probably does matter. I don't see any
Category 6 hurricanes in the Atlantic anytime soon, but if oceans
continue to warm our grandkids may someday be wondering why we had any
doubts. Here's today's edition of
Climate Matters: "
Meteorologist
Paul Douglas talks hurricane strength. Category 5 remains the
largest, but is a Category 6 not far off? Dive in and explore the
Pacific Super Typhoon of 1979. Also, extreme heat will take over a
majority of the U.S. next week. See how hot it will get in today's
WeatherNationTV Climate show."
Atlantic Hurricanes Intensifying Over Time? There is
no data to support the claim that we're seeing more hurricanes in the
Atlantic, but the storm that do spin up have a better chance of spinning
up and becoming more intense, possibly the result of warmer ocean
water. Here's an excerpt of a scientific paper at
hurricaneclimatology.com: "
Here
we added the least-squares regression line about the annual mean
lifetime highest wind speed (black line) and the least-squares
regression line about the annual lifetime highest wind speed (red).
While there is no upward or downward trend in the average cyclone
intensity, there is an upward trend to the set of strongest cyclones.
The theory of maximum potential intensity, which relates intensity to
ocean heat, refers to a theoretical limit given the thermodynamic
conditions (Emanuel 1988). So the upward trend in the observed lifetime
maximum intensity is physically consistent with what you expect given
the increasing ocean temperature..."
A Category 6 Hurricane? Recently Al Gore (who was
apparently misquoted) caused a minor stir by implying that NHC might
have to someday increase the Saffir Simpson scale to imagine a "Category
6" hurricane. The denial-sphere went crazy. "How could he say
that? Impossible! Ridiculous!" Well, meteorologically-speaking, the
notion of a “Category 6” hurricane doesn’t fit my definition of science
fiction. In fact you could make a strong case that the western Pacific
has already seen a handful of storms that blow right past the current
Category 5 designation.
The western Pacific is home to the largest, most
intense hurricanes on Earth, the result of a larger ocean and more
runway available to strengthen a developing storm. Its more semantics
than science and the notion of a Cat 6 requires a few assumptions,
but if you merely extrapolate out the current Saffir Simpson scale
(15-25 mph of sustained wind speed difference between a 3, 4 and 5)
“Tip” – a super-typhoon in 1979 - would qualify, with sustained winds at
it's peak of 190 mph. Here's an excerpt from
Wikipedia:
“Typhoon Tip (international designation:
7920,
JTWC designation:
23W,
PAGASA name:
Warling) was the largest and most intense
tropical cyclone ever recorded. The nineteenth storm and twelfth typhoon of the
1979 Pacific typhoon season, Tip developed out of a disturbance in the
monsoon trough on October 4 near
Pohnpei.
Initially, a tropical storm to the northwest hindered the development
and motion of Tip, though after it tracked further north Tip was able to
intensify. After passing
Guam, Tip
rapidly intensified and reached peak winds of 305 km/h (190 mph)
[nb 1] and a worldwide record-low
sea-level pressure of 870
mbar (870.0
hPa; 25.69
inHg)
on October 12. At its peak strength, it was also the largest tropical
cyclone on record with a wind diameter of 2,220 km (1,380 mi).”
Perspective. Tip made Sandy and even Katrina look like toy hurricanes.
“The typhoon was also the most intense tropical
cyclone on record with a pressure of 870 mbar (870.0 hPa; 25.69 inHg),
6 mbar (6.0 hPa; 0.18 inHg) lower than the previous record set by
Super Typhoon June in
1975.The records set by Tip still stand, though with the end of routine
reconnaissance aircraft
in the western Pacific Ocean in August 1987, modern researchers
questioned if Tip is the strongest on record. After a detailed study,
three researchers determined that two typhoons,
Angela in 1995 and
Gay in 1992, maintained higher
Dvorak numbers than Tip, and believed that one or both of the two may have been more intense than Tip.
[19] Also,
Cyclone Monica of
2006
was rated at 869 mbar (869.0 hPa; 25.66 inHg) by Dvorak
classifications, although this was dismissed since the source was
unofficial.”
I hate to lean on Wikipedia, but it does a pretty good job of summarizing Tip and other extreme typhoons/hurricanes:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Typhoon_Tip.
Who knows, maybe our kids or grandkids will someday look back upon a
time when their aging relatives laughed at the idea of a "Cat 6".
.
Fox News has the story (and video); here's a clip: "
Running
out of money to fight wildfires at the peak of the season, the U.S.
Forest Service is diverting $600 million from timber, recreation and
other areas to fill the gap. The nation's top wildfire-fighting agency
was down to $50 million after spending $967 million so far this year,
Forest Service spokesman Larry Chambers said Wednesday in an email.
Chambers says the $50 million the Forest Service has left is typically
enough to pay for just a few days of fighting fires when the nation is
at its top wildfire preparedness level, which went into effect Tuesday.
There are 51 large uncontained fires burning across the nation, making
it tough to meet demands for fire crews and equipment..."
California Wildfire Nearly Doubles In Size, Burns Into Yosemite Park. Here's a clip from a story at NPR and
opb.org: "
A California wildfire burst into Yosemite National Park Friday after growing to more than 105,620
acres, the U.S. Forestry Service says. More than 2,000 firefighting
personnel are working on the blaze known as the Rim wildfire, which is
only 2 percent contained. From Thursday to Friday, the fire nearly
doubled in size, growing from 99 square miles to about 165 square miles,
the AP reports.
A large portion of Highway 120, a main road in and out of Yosemite,
remains shut down after being closed earlier this week, the Forestry
Service reported in its latest update this morning..."
Why The U.S. Power Grid's Days Are Numbered.
Bloomberg Businessweek has the story - here's a clip: "
There
are 3,200 utilities that make up the U.S. electrical grid, the largest
machine in the world. These power companies sell $400 billion worth of
electricity a year, mostly derived from burning fossil fuels in
centralized stations and distributed over 2.7 million miles of power
lines. Regulators set rates; utilities get guaranteed returns;
investors get sure-thing dividends. It’s a model that hasn’t changed
much since Thomas Edison invented the light bulb. And it’s doomed to
obsolescence.That’s the opinion of David Crane, chief executive officer
of NRG Energy, a wholesale power company based in Princeton, N.J.
What’s afoot is a confluence of green energy and computer technology,
deregulation, cheap natural gas, and political pressure that, as Crane
starkly frames it, poses “a mortal threat to the existing utility
system...”
File photo above: AP.
Can A Big Earthquake Trigger Another One? Do they
come in swarms, or families? Something many seismologists have suspected
for a long time. Here's an excerpt of a fascinating story from
KERA News in north Texas: "
There's
a joke among scientists: prediction is difficult, especially about the
future. For Ross Stein, it wasn't a joke after the Indian Ocean quake
and tsunami in 2004. It killed some 275,000 people. "I just felt almost
a sense of shame," Stein says, "that this tragedy could have been so
immense in a world where we have so much intense research effort."
Stein's a geophysicist at the U.S. Geological Survey. He says quake
experts have learned a couple of important things over the last few
years. They've learned from big quakes in China, Chile, Japan and New
Zealand, as well as the Indian Ocean quake. The first new idea is about
aftershocks that follow a big earthquake. They're not just a sort of
quake death spasm; they can actually make more quakes more likely..."
Photo credit above: "
Kesennuma, in the Tohoku region of
Japan, was devastated in a March 11, 2011, earthquake and tsunami. A
researcher studying recent megaquakes says this one, centered some 300
miles from Tokyo, could actually mean an increased risk of a quake
hitting Japan's capital, one of the most populous metropolitan areas in
the world." Suzanne Mooney / Barcroft Media /Landov
Give TV Viewers What They Want - Full Control.
Here's a clip from a fairly convincing argument from Kevin Spacey, star
of "House of Cards" on Netflix, which is excellent, by the way. He
believes television may still be able to avoid making the same mistakes
the music industry made, by not giving their customers what they really
wanted at the time. Here's an excerpt of his Op-Ed at
The Guardian: "...
The success of the Netflix model
– releasing the entire season of House of Cards at once and online –
has proved one thing: the audience wants the control. They want freedom.
If they want to binge then we should let them binge. And through this
new form of distribution, I think we have demonstrated that we have
learned the lesson the music industry didn't learn: give people what
they want, when they want it, in the form they want it in – at a
reasonable price – and they'll more likely pay for it rather than steal
it. Well, some will still steal it, but I believe this new model can
take a bite out of piracy..."
When Will Google Glass Finally Go On Sale? Yes, I
expect this technological innovation to change my life - I'm hoping I
can be even MORE connected, maybe answer e-mails in my sleep, check my
FB posts while I'm driving in city traffic. My question: do they have a
cheater (bifocal) edition so I can actually read fine text? Yes, the
potential is enormous - and thank God they don't look dorky. Remind me
to get an eyepatch instead. Here's a clip from
gizmag.com: "
When will regular consumers be able to purchase Google Glass?
Ever since the augmented reality headgear was unveiled in 2012, we've
been hearing Glass will be available to the general public in 2014 ...
or maybe in late 2013 ... but probably not until 2014. So which is it?
Time to set the record straight..."
Sinister Minds: Are Left-Handed People Smarter? I'm happily married to a (left-handed) woman, so I have mixed feelings about including this story from
The New Yorker, but I found it interesting nonetheless. Here's a clip: "...
Left-handers
may, in fact, even derive certain cognitive benefits from their
preference. This spring, a group of psychiatrists from the University
of Athens invited
a hundred university students and graduates—half left-handed and half
right—to complete two tests of cognitive ability. In the Trail Making
Test, participants had to find a path through a batch of circles as
quickly as possible. In the hard version of the test, the circles
contain numbers and letters, and participants must move in ascending
order while alternating between the two as fast as possible. In the
second test, Letter-Number Sequencing, participants hear a group of
numbers and letters and must then repeat the whole group, but with
numbers in ascending order and letters organized alphabetically. Lefties
performed better on both the complex version of the
T.M.T.—demonstrating faster and more accurate spatial skills, along with
strong executive control and mental flexibility—and on the L.N.S.,
demonstrating enhanced working memory. And the more intensely they
preferred their left hand for tasks, the stronger the effect..."
A "10" On The Cute-Meter: Abandoned House In The Woods.
OK, my sister sent me this link, and I share it for any and all
animal-lovers out there. Anything to take our minds off the upcoming
heat wave right? Here's an excerpt from
boredpanda.com: "
Finnish
photographer Kai Fagerström presents unique photo series, where he
captures wild animals making themselves comfortable in abandoned houses
in the woods of Finland. Titled The House in the Woods, the photo
series is set in cottages near Kai’s summer house, which were abandoned
by their tenants after the owner of the place died in a fire.
Award-winning photographer noticed how the place was slowly being
reclaimed by the nature, and what started as a few snapshots, ended up
being a book, published in Finnish, German, and English..."
Live "FishCam" From The Minnesota State Fair. A sudden urge for sushi (or a shore lunch) is brought to you by the
Minnesota DNR: "
Each
year, the pond is stocked with about 45 different species of fish that
call Minnesota home. During the State Fair, we provide a live webcam,
showcasing the fish underwater."
Climate Stories....
Climate Change Deniers Live In Ignorant Bliss As Seas Keep Rising.
The Los Angeles Times has the story - here's an excerpt: "
A
new climate-change report from the United Nations that was leaked to
the media this week says sea levels could rise by more than 3 feet by
the end of the 21st century and that there is a 95% likelihood that the
global warming that is causing this rise is largely a result of human
activity. You may now cue the deniers who say somebody is just making
this stuff up. In this case, that somebody is the Intergovernmental
Panel On Climate Change (IPCC), an international scientific team that
issues periodic assessments of our planet’s shifting climate. Its
report, which is still under review, is scheduled for release in four
parts between September 2013 and November 2014. Just like a slew of
other scientific studies, it warns that major coastal cities, including
New York, Miami, New Orleans, London, Shanghai and Sydney, are in
peril of being inundated by the rising seas..."
Cartoon credit above: David Horsey / Los Angeles Times
(August 21, 2013).
The "Consensus" View: Kevin Trenberth's Take On Climate Change. Here's an excerpt of an NPR interview with climate scientist Kevin Trenberth: "...You
can think of it like a staircase. Temperature is flat when a natural
cool spell cancels out the gradual temperature increase caused by human
activity. But when there's a natural warm spell on top of the
long-term warming trend, the story is dramatically different. "When the
natural variability or when the weather is going in the same direction
as global warming, suddenly we're breaking records, we're going
outside of the bounds of previous experience, and that is when the real
damage occurs," Trenberth says. Consider Hurricane Sandy. Trenberth
figures the storm was maybe 5 or 10 percent more powerful as a result
of global warming. And sea level is 8 inches higher than it was a
century ago. That doesn't seem that dramatic, but he argues that made a
huge and costly difference. "I reckon that without climate change, we
would not have exceeded thresholds that caused the flooding of the
subways in Manhattan and the tunnels from Manhattan to New Jersey and
to Brooklyn..."
Photo credit above: "
Kevin Trenberth is a distinguished senior scientist at the National Center for Atmospheric Research.
" Rich Crowder/Corbis.
Can Cities Adjust To A Retreating Coastline? Here's food for thought from Andrew Revkin at The New York Times: "Last June, in rolling out an ambitious$20-billion plan to gird New York City against the impacts of rising seas and storm surges in a warming climate, Mayor Michael R. Bloomberg gave a classic “no retreat” speech,
including this line: [A]s New Yorkers, we cannot and will not abandon
our waterfront. It’s one of our greatest assets. We must protect it,
not retreat from it. Of course, who could ever imagine a politician
standing on a coastline proclaiming, “We will retreat!” But somehow,
that’s what has to be done. Finding a way to have a realistic
discussion of where to hold firm and where to pull back, where to gird
and where to let nature dominate, has to happen to limit costs and
other regrets in thousands of coastal cities and smaller communities
around the world..."
Graphic credit above:
Architecture Research Office and dlandstudio "A rendering of a plan for Lower Manhattan with tidal marshes and wetlands that could absorb storm surges, created by the Architecture Research Office and dlandstudio."
Climate Change Our Most Serious Security Threat. Here's a clip from an eye-opening story at The San Francisco Chronicle: "Ask Adm. Samuel Locklear III,
commander of the U.S. military's sprawling Pacific Command, what his
most serious threat is, and you might be surprised. There's a long list
of possibilities, after all: North Korean nukes, rising Chinese
military power and aggressive cyberespionage, multiple territorial
disputes between major powers and persistent insurgencies from the
Philippines to Thailand, not to mention protecting some of the world's
most vulnerable shipping choke points. Add all of that up, though, and
there's something even more dangerous to keep even the most seasoned
military officer up at night: the looming disaster of climate change.
Locklear is not alone in his assessment. He is one among a rising
chorus of voices from the national security community, from senior
military and intelligence officials to front-line combat veterans,
united by what is fast becoming a consensus view..."
Photo credit above: "
Maj. Sean M. Sadlier (left) of the
U.S. Marine Corps Expeditionary Energy Office explains the solar power
element of the Expeditionary Forward Operating Base concept to Col.
Anthony Fernandez during the testing phase of this sustainable energy
initiative here, May 19. The ExFOB is designed primarily for use by
small Marine Corps units at forward operating bases in Afghanistan.
Fernandez, a Marine Corps Reservist with a combined 28 years in the
Corps, is the African Lion 2010 task force commander here." DATE:
May 21, 2010 BY: U.S. Marine Forces Africa LOCATION: The African Lion
operation, where this comes from, was based in Morocco Photo:
Insight25_breen_PHa, Maj. Paul Greenberg.
Water Is Something About Which We Should Not Be Dumb. Amen. We will quickly discover that the most precious natural resources aren't oil or gas, but water. Esquire has the story - here's a clip: "There's
a water shortage in Texas. This is because of a number of factors,
including urban sprawl, simple wastage, the ongoing drought, and the
Great Climate Change Hoax, which is affecting us all and might be a
concern, if it actually existed, which half of our political system
believes it does not. There is also another reason. The energy
companies are using the water for fracking, which seems uniquely stupid
in a time of urban sprawl, wastage, drought, and the Great Climate
Change Hoax. Most of the places being affected are small communities, like Barnhart, which the energy companies simply look at as vassal states to be used up and discarded.
The people of Barnhart, a tiny West Texas community near
San Angelo, are certainly paying attention. Thanks to fracking's
outsized water demands, the town well has gone dry. The town's water
crisis brings to mind another old saw: "The prospect of being hanged
focuses the mind wonderfully." In Barnhart, where a severe and
lingering drought already had put a strain on the water supply, minds
are focused these days, though not so wonderfully..."
File photo above: ThinkStock.
Are Americans Ready To Rebel Over Climate? I'm not
so sure, not yet. It may require a few more climate calamities before
the protests begin. But in the meantime I suspect many people will be
happy to vote anti-science legislators out of office and register their
displeasure with polluting companies with their check books, supporting
cleaner, greener products and services. We'll see. Here's an excerpt
from
Discovery News: "
Henry
David Thoreau would be so proud. It appears that one in four Americans
would now support peaceful civil disobedience against organizations
that are making global warming worse, according to the latest survey report
by the Yale Project on Climate Change Communication and George Mason
University Center for Climate Change Communication. But that’s not all.
One in eight would even be willing to take part personally in civil
disobedience. The survey also found that people are most likely to
discuss global warming face-to-face, rather than via social media, for
instance, and are most likely to be spurred into action by friends or
family..."
"Climate Change" Gone From State Emergency Plan.
Texas Public Radio has the article - here's the intro: "
Several
groups in Texas and Washington D.C. have taken issue with the Federal
Emergency Management Agency allowing the State of Texas to delete
"climate change" from their state emergency plan. Texas is up for
renewal of its hazard mitigation plan, which is a prerequisite for the
state to receive money from the FEMA to reduce losses from natural
disaster. Aliya Haq is with Washington D.C.-based Natural Resource Defense Council,
who said the state refuses to add the term "climate change" to the
listed disaster risks. "Climate change changes the risk," Haq said.
"Climate change is a huge factor in things like extreme heat, in
hurricanes, in drought, wildfires, flooding-issues. A lot of the
hazards that Texas is dealing with are affected by climate change and
we’re starting to see those impacts now..."
