Tornado Chasing
It sounds like a hobby for the mentally
deranged. "Hey, let's try to intercept a tornado!" Oklahoma is ground
zero of Tornado Alley, no more so than the last couple of weeks, with a
rash of deadly twisters.
The movie "Twister" made tornado-chasing cool:
research meteorologists surrounding a tornadic storm with portable
Doppler and weather balloons, trying to understand what makes these
fierce storms tick. Then amateur chasers realized they could make a few
bucks selling tornado video to local TV stations.
Now on any given day thousands of chasers are
stalking thunderheads, in search of the money shot - or a cheap
adrenaline thrill. The result? Rush hour on 2-lane dirt roads; traffic
jams that can make it hard to escape the path of an erratic tornado.
Some chasers were injured Friday night outside Oklahoma City. Me? I'm
more afraid of fast-driving chasers than the actual tornado itself.
Sometimes you chase tornadoes - other times the tornado chases you.
We salvage cool sun today; the next storm kicking up rain late Monday into Wednesday, more rain & storms next weekend.
The core of the storm track is howling directly
overhead, meaning frequent fronts, ample rains, a few bouts of severe
weather and little risk of overheating anytime soon.
A (Consistent) Southward Shift To The Jet Stream.
Why has it been so cool and wet in recent months? The jet is 500-800
miles farther south than usual for early June, a trend which has been
apparent since March. The core of steering levels winds is howing almost
directly over Minnesota, meaning frequent storms and cool frontal
passages. Why is the jet so far south? Good question, and not a lot of
great answers. One theory: record melting of Greenland and Arctic ice in
late 2012 threw the northern branch of the jet stream out of alignment.
A bubble of warm high pressure set up near the North Pole, displacing
the cold "polar vortex" farther south than usual, setting the stage for
chillier, stormier weather from North America to Europe and Asia. And
here's the thing: I don't see this pattern breaking down anytime soon.
Odds favor cooler, wetter, stormier weather in June, possibly beyond.
Too early to say with confidence, but steering winds are definitely
stuck in a persistent, long-term rut.
When In Doubt - Predict Rain.
The ECMWF (European) model has only one day this week with no rain -
today. The best chance of showery rains: Tuesday and Wednesday, again
late Friday into Sunday. Highs range from 60s to 70s. A/C optional until
further notice.
Status Quo. NOAA NCEP's 5-Day
Rainfall Outlook (QPC) prints out some 5-8" amounts for south Florida as
a tropical system lifts north out of the Gulf of Mexico. The Middle
Mississippi Valley gets a brief break, bone-dry weather west of the
Rockies.
Wet, Active Pattern. At least
east of the Rockies a southward jog to the jet stream will squeeze out
more showers and T-storms. Oklahoma sees a break in severe thunderstorm
activity until the latter half of next week. Keep an eye on the eastern
Gulf of Mexico for possible tropical depression or storm development
within 5-6 days. NAM loop: NOAA.
Another Tornado Emergency. Here's a RadarScope image
showing velocity fields at the height of yesterday's rain-wrapped
(multi-vortex) tornado that hit the western and southern suburbs of
Oklahoma City. It's been a terrifying month for local residents, light
to moderate damage reported again in Moore, hit so hard by an EF-5 early
last week. Thanks to WeatherNation TV meteorologist Susie Moore for the
image.
The Dark Side of Tornado Chasing. Sometimes you
chase the tornado - sometimes the tornado chases you. I'm relieved Mike
Bettes from The Weather Channel is OK, reports of bumps, bruises and
cracked ribs as the vehicle was rolled during yesterday's freak tornado
outbreak. This twister was erratic, a "right-turner" - it veered to the
right, catching many storm chasers offguard. Yesterday there were
hundreds, possibly thousands of tornado chasers converging on Oklahoma
City, professionals and amateurs. One of these days there's going to be a
terrible tragedy among the chaser/spotter community. Yesterday we got a
glimpse of how things can go south (literally) in a hurry.
Tornado Distribution: 2001 - 2010. Here's an
interesting map from NOAA, showing an apparent eastward shift in Tornado
Alley. South Carolina and Alabama saw as many tornadoes per 10,000
square miles as Iowa and Oklahoma. Peak states for tornado touchdowns
last decade: Kansas and Mississippi.
A May To Remember (Or Promptly Forget). Amen. Here's an excerpt from this week's edition of
WeatherTalk, courtesy of Dr. Mark Seeley: "...
Combined
with the precipitation for March and April, the overall spring season
(March-May) was the wettest in history for southeastern Minnesota,
saturating soils, and putting streams and rivers near bank full.
Statewide this spring is likely to end up among the top ten wettest in
history. The snow storm over the first few days of May established some
records in southeastern Minnesota as well. Dodge Center reported a
statewide daily record snowfall for May with 15.4 inches on the 2nd.
Observer reports for snow totals ranged from 9 inches (Albert Lea) to
17.3 inches (Ellendale) across many areas of southern Minnesota in one
of the snowiest Mays in state history..."
Don't Sweat The Showers. Friday's asteroid encounter with Earth was a little close for comfort; details from
NASA: "
Approaching
asteroid 1998 QE2 has a moon. Researchers found it in a sequence of
radar images obtained by the 70-meter Deep Space Network antenna at
Goldstone, Calif., on the evening of May 29th (May 30th Universal Time)
when the asteroid was about 6 million kilometers from Earth. The
preliminary estimate for the size of the asteroid's satellite is
approximately 600 meters wide. The asteroid itself is approximately 2.7
kilometers in diameter and has a rotation period of less than four
hours..."
Image credit above: "
First radar images of asteroid 1998
QE2 were obtained when the asteroid was about 3.75 million miles (6
million kilometers) from Earth. The radar collage covers a little bit
more than two hours." Image credit: NASA/JPL-Caltech/GSSR.
Extra-Tropical Storm Next Week? The latest ECMWF
model (WSI) continues to show soaking/flooding rains for Florida by the
middle and end of next week, a possible tropical depression or even a
weak tropical storm pushing heavy seas into the Carolinas, with a shield
of heavy rain extending into New York and Boston by next weekend.
America's Most Vulnerable Hurricane Metropolitan Areas.
Tampa/St. Pete tops the list, Miami, New Orleans, Virginia's Tidewater
region and Houston/Galveston in the Top 5. Source: Climate Central.
June Hurricane Climatology. Tropical storms and
hurricanes are most likely to form in the eastern Gulf of Mexico in
June, according to NHC records. Image: WeatherNation TV.
As Hurricane Season Starts, U.S. Facing Heightened Risk.
More Americans living on or near the coast, coupled with a peak in the
natural hurricane cycle, and warmer than normal sea surface
temperatures, may set the stage for a very active hurricane season.
Climate Central meteorologist Andrew Freedman has the story; here's a clip: "...
Although the U.S. has seen its fair share of damaging storms in recent years, including Hurricane Sandy in 2013
(which technically was not a hurricane at landfall), the last major
hurricane to strike the U.S. was Hurricane Wilma in 2005. Scientists
contacted by Climate Central warned that in part because of the dearth
of major hurricanes, there may be a sense of “hurricane amnesia”
setting in among coastal residents — a potentially hazardous
combination for when the nation's luck runs out...."
Graphic credit above: "
Graphic
showing that we've been in an active period of tropical cyclone
activity since 1995, where the average number of named tropical storms
has jumped significantly to 15.2 per year." Climate Central.
What Will Protect Us From The Next Surge? Coastal
residents have good reason to fear the storm surge. Wind speeds get a
lot of play in the media, but it's the storm surge that poses the
greatest risk of drowning out ahead of the eye. But as many as 1 in 4
deaths since 1950 have been associated with inland flooding, in some
cases days after a tropical storm or hurricane reaches land. Here's an
excerpt from
The Houston Chronicle: "
The
destruction wrought by Hurricane Ike in 2008 focused attention on the
need for storm surge protection for the Galveston-Houston area.
Researchers at Rice University
found that had Ike struck slightly farther west on Galveston Island,
it would have inundated scores of chemical plants and refineries. Ike
would have shut down the source of 40 percent of the nation's jet fuel,
27 percent of its gasoline and 42 percent of its chemical feed stocks.
To protect industry and residents from another Ike, or worse, several
storm-surge protection efforts are underway, including the well-known
Ike Dike concept..."
Photo credit above: "
A house is engulfed in flames as
water and waves inundate homes on Galveston Island as Hurricane Ike
approaches the coast Sept. 12, 2008." Photo: Smiley N. Pool, Staff / Houston Chronicle.
You Think It's Wet Here? Yes, it is soggy, but just
south of the border they're bailing out from the wettest spring on
record across Iowa. Graphic courtesy of WeatherNation TV.
NOAA Satellite May Be Back Online Soon, Official Says.
Climate Central has the story - here's an excerpt: "
A
vital weather satellite that blinked out on May 22 may be back in
service as early as June 5, according to an official at the National
Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). The satellite, known as
GOES-13, suffered from an unexplained change in its orientation
toward the Earth — what NOAA calls an “attitude disturbance” — that
caused its instruments to shut down automatically. So far, engineers
working to restart the satellite have not found any signs of damage, nor
have they found an explanation for the satellite’s sudden shift..."
Image credit above: NOAA. "
GOES East image taken on May 31, 2013 by the backup satellite, GOES-14."
Climate Stories....
The Climate Change Guilt Trip. It's easy to get
depressed some days, especially when you second-guess efforts to reduce
your carbon footprint. Here's an excerpt of an Op-Ed at
The Los Angeles Times: "...
Of
course, it wasn't really about me. What my friend expressed was
climate guilt, a feeling that many of us who care about environmental
issues experience every day. I am not immune. We feel guilty about
driving cars and watching TV and turning on lights, as if that makes us
personally responsible for this gigantic threat that looms over us. For
years, caring governments and thoughtful corporations have
communicated the idea that we're all in this together, that if we each
just do our bit we can solve this global warming mess. Duke Energy,
a utility company that depends heavily on coal, points out that
"saving the environment can be as easy as changing a light bulb." It's a
gentle, brotherly tone. But there's something in the subtext here too —
a warning: "Let he who is without sin cast the first stone..."
Photo credit above: "
Oil companies have made up the most powerful industry on Earth for the last 50 years."
(Michael Nelson / EPA)
Climate Change Linked To More Pollen, Allergies, Asthma. Here's a clip from a story at
USA Today: "...
Climate
change might be partly to blame. Scientists see a link to carbon
dioxide, a heat-trapping greenhouse gas emitted by burning coal, oil
and other fossil fuels. Tests show that the more CO2 in the atmosphere,
the more plants generally grow and the more pollen they produce.
Though some plants grow more food or flowers as a result, more pollen
can spell trouble. Doctors say it's contributing to a rise in seasonal
hay fever and allergic asthma in the USA, where the pollen season has
lengthened up to 16 days since 1995. If carbon dioxide emissions
continue to increase, they expect allergic conditions probably will
worsen, adding to the discomfort of allergy suffers as well as swelling
U.S. health care costs..."
The American Party. Will it take a third political
party to address climate change, among other issues, a reaction to
political extremism on both sides of the aisle? Climate scientist James
Hansen believes it may be necessary in the years ahead; here's an
excerpt of his Op-Ed at
Huffington Post: "...
And
yet moderation is just what most Americans seem to want. In such case,
the fastest way to progress may be a 3rd party, a centrist party. It is
very possible that the United States is ready for a centrist American
Party. In 1992 Ross Perot garnered almost 20% of the votes for
President. At times he had led in the polls, but he damaged his
credibility in several ways, including his assertion that he had once
seen Martians on his front yard. Compared with 1992, a much larger
fraction of the people is fed up with the failures of both major
parties. If, following the mid-term elections of 2014, there is not a
strong indication of bipartisan progress, it may be time to consider
the possibility of launching a major centrist 3rd party effort, not
only for the Presidency but for Congress as well...."
