Lessons From Moore
Remind me to never complain about a little cold or snow again.
Ever.
Nothing like an EF-4 tornado hitting a major metropolitan area to put things into stark perspective.
In spite a warming Earth there's no conclusive,
scientific evidence that we're seeing more violent tornadoes. There's
more water vapor and instability to fuel severe storms, but in a warming
world wind shear necessary for violent tornadoes should decrease over
time. More research is needed, but I suspect the real culprit here is
land use - suburban sprawl. The same monster tornado that hit farmland
20 years ago is now grinding into subdivisions and shopping malls.
Doppler radar can't always estimate the
intensity of a developing tornado, and as a nation we suffer from
tornado fatigue: too many warnings. Out of 10 tornado warnings only 3
will produce a tornado, and the ones that form are usually small and
brief. This breeds apathy and cynicism, so when the big one, the
nightmare ("Tornado Emergency") becomes reality - people are skeptical.
Review a Tornado Action Plan with your kids. Information is power.
A cool, wet Wednesday gives way to a partly
sunny, lukewarm holiday weekend. As temperatures rise next week so will
the risk of severe storms.
In the words of the Boy Scouts: "be prepared".
* photo credit above: "This Tuesday,
May 21, 2013 aerial photo shows, from bottom to top, the path Monday's
tornado took through Moore, Okla. The huge tornado roared through the
Oklahoma City suburb Monday, flattening entire neighborhoods and
destroying an elementary school with a direct blow as children and
teachers huddled against winds." (AP Photo/Kim Johnson Flodin)
The Tornado Outbreak Of May 20, 2013. Here's the
very latest from the National Weather Service in Norman, Oklahoma: "
Damage
survey teams are continue to survey the damage path of the
Newcastle-Moore tornado that occurred on May 20, 2013. We will be
adding more information to web pages for this event during the next few
days.
Note: As of 2:50 PM CDT, the NWS survey conducted by several teams has now rated the Newcastle-Moore tornado as EF-5.
The damage survey teams have also determined that the tornado began
4.4 miles west of Newcastle and ended 4.8 miles east of Moore,
yielding an approximate tornado path length of 17 miles. The
preliminary maximum damage path width is 1.3 miles. Crews will continue
to sort through damage for a final intensity rating. The latest
Public Information Statement issued by the NWS Norman forecast office
can be found here.
Further updates and more detailed information of
the tornado damage areas will be released later today and Wednesday.
Below is a map with the approximate damage path of the
Newcastle-Moore-South OKC tornado."
Fast Facts
- A rating of EF-5 has been given to the tornado that affected the Newcastle, south OKC, and Moore areas in McClain and Cleveland Counties.
- The tornado had.a path length of approximately 17 miles and was
on the ground for approximately 40 minutes from 2:56 PM - 3.26 PM CDT.
- The preliminary maximum path width is 1.3 miles.
Photo credit above: "
This Tuesday, May 21, 2013 aerial
photo shows a residential area of Moore, Okla. destroyed by Monday's
tornado. A huge tornado roared through the Oklahoma City suburb Monday,
flattening entire neighborhoods and destroying an elementary school with a direct blow as children and teachers huddled against winds." (AP Photo/Tony Gutierrez).
Tornado Tracks Streak Across Oklahoma. Here's an excerpt from
NOAA's Environmental Visualization Laboratory: "
The
rotation of tornadoes creates a distinctive signature in radar data,
and can be used to estimate the track that the system takes over land.
This image shows the rotational velocity of the systems that passed over
Oklahoma on the afternoon of May 20, 2013. A single cohesive structure
can be seen to cut across seven counties, with Moore directly in the
middle..."
From
Alerts Broadcaster (issued Tuesday morning):
Our Worst Fear Confirmed: A Violent (Urban) Tornado.
The tornado that formed west of Moore, Oklahoma yesterday went from
EF-1 to EF-5 strength within 10-15 minutes, responding to favorable
conditions aloft (powerful wind shear coupled with an explosively
unstable atmosphere). Tornado Watches were posted roughly 2 hours ahead
of time, Tornado Warnings issued by the OKC NWS at least 30 minutes in
advance. The problem? If you don't have a basement or underground
shelter the odds of surviving a direct hit from an EF-4 or EF-5 are
small - even well constructed brick and mortar homes can be scraped
down to foundation with an EF-4's 180-200 mph winds.
* Death toll stands at 24, although I expect this to go up as
recovery efforts continue today. Hundreds are injured; many residents
still missing. As many as 20,000 residents of Moore are homeless.
* 30 square miles impacted by moderate to extensive tornado damage.
* This may top Joplin as the most expensive tornado in U.S. history.
The May, 2011 Joplin tornado came in at $2.8 billion. I expect the
2013 Moore tornado to be comparable, probably $2-3 billion in total
damage. There's a good chance this will be America's most expensive
tornado on record.
Moore Damage Path. Yesterday's mile-wide path is in
green, the 1999 EF-5 path is in red, the 2003 tornado in blue.
KFOR.com has a good interactive map
here.
Close-Up Of Damage Path. Again, the green-shaded
area shows yesterday's track, a wider path than 1999 and 2003.
Thousands of homes and businesses were impacted. Fewer than 1 in 10
Oklahomans have basements or storm shelters - bedrock makes it costly
to excavate. Some have storm shelters, steel and concrete-reinforced
closets and garages, but an EF-4 can be unsurvivable if you can't get
below grade, below ground.
Ground Zero. Here is an aerial map with path
superimposed, showing where some of the most destructive (and deadly)
winds hit, including Plaza Towers Elementary School, where loss of life
was high. Photo credit: BBC, AP, Google.
Plaza Towers Elementary School. The before/after
imagery is stark. This tornado will reignite the debate over school
safety and the need for reinforced shelters in all public buildings.
Photo credit: AP.
Moore Medical Center. Damage is significant at Moore
Medical Center; most operations have been shifted to other nearby
medical facilities. Photo credit: AP.
Damage Swath. Here are before/after aerials from subdivisions west of Santa Fe Avenue. Photo credit: AP
War Zone. As meteorologists we're trained to think
clinically, like doctors. Look at the data, evaluate the models, make a
prediction. Leave emotion out of the mix. But you can't look at these
images (as a parent, as a human being) without being heartbroken. The
damage is consistent with an EF-4 or EF-5 tornado. Photo credit: AP.
More Imagery. Here is a before/after comparison of homes in a neighborhood east of South Eastern Avenue.
* before the tornado hit several Oklahoma City TV meteorologists
encouraged people in the direct path of this tornado to "drive away".
The reality: if an EF-4 strength tornado is approaching and you don't
have a basement or shelter your odds of survival are small.
Statistically it's better to get into your vehicle and try to outrun the
tornado. The problem: as good as Doppler radar is it can be difficult
estimating the intensity of a tornado, even 10-15 minutes in advance.
We can see rotation, even a hook echo, but is it an EF-1 or a monster
EF-5? Unlike hurricanes, where we can see satellite imagery and estimate
strength, tornadoes are much more difficult to predict in advance:
track and ultimate intensity.
* there is no evidence that we're seeing more EF-4 or EF-5
tornadoes, which comprise less than 1-2% of ALL tornadoes that strike
the USA. A warmer atmosphere increases instability and buoyancy, but
wind shear in a warming world should decrease over time. More research
is needed, but we can't (yet) connect the dots and claim that there is
causal connection. More research is needed.
Wednesday Risk. No moderate threat tomorrow, a
slight risk of storms capable of hail and damaging straight-line winds
from Detroit, Columbus and Cleveland to Pittsburg, State College,
Buffalo and Rochester. An isolated tornado can't be ruled out in and
near this region tomorrow, but probably not the scope and severity of
the tornadoes that have struck the Southern Plains in recent days.
Summary: It's our worst fear as meteorologists: a
large (urban) tornado. One glaring problem: "tornado fatigue". As a
nation we are still issuing too many tornado warnings (at least that's
the consensus among most private meteorologists I know). Nobody wants
to miss a tornado - that's the cardinal sin, so NWS issues warnings on
just about every rotating thunderstorm they find on Doppler. The FAR or
false alarm rate is still hovering near 70%. Stated differently, 7 in
10 tornado warnings produce NO tornado. This leads to apathy ("they're
crying wolf!") and when the big tornado
does
materalize, when our worst fears are realized, many residents simply
aren't ready to take the measures necessary to protect their lives.
In a hurricane you have days to prepare; a tornado: 5-30 minutes.
The average lead time, nationally, is 13-15 minutes. Last year I
proposed
new terminnology,
leveraging "Alerts" (for rotation based storms) and "Tornado
Emergencies" (for confirmed tornadoes on the ground moving into urban
areas). This is a reflection of land-use trends and suburban sprawl.
Tornadoes that would have hit farmland 10-30 years ago are now hitting
subdivisions. As metropolitan areas expand the probability of a direct
strike from major tornadoes goes up steadily over time. Last year I
wrote an article for
Huffington Post,
recounting a severe storm conference, where a well-respected
structural engineer/meteorologist predicted that, within our lifetime, a
single U.S. tornado will hit an urban area, even a downtown, with over
1,000 fatalities from a single twister. Yesterday was a reminder (to
me) that his prediction may not be as far-fetched as it sounds. It's
land-use, statistics and probabilities, another unpleasant symptom of
expanding metropolitan areas.
A Survival Plan For America's Tornado Danger Zone. Here's an excerpt of a timely story from
The New York Times: "
The horror confronting residents and emergency workers probing the tornado wreckage in Oklahoma is unimaginable for those of use elsewhere. Collapsed schools, disintegrated homes, crushed cars and more. The main focus should be on aid.
But it’s worth beginning a conversation about ways to live safer in
such hazard zones given that this storm season is just getting under
way and that big regions of America’s tornado hot zone have deep vulnerability resulting from runaway growth and a human tendency to discount threats that have a low probability but disastrous potential. (The same issues are driving exposure to danger in hurricane zones.)..."
Photo credit above: "
The rubble of a destroyed
neighborhood lay mixed together where it fell Tuesday, May 21, 2013 a
day after a tornado moved through Moore, Okla. The huge tornado roared
through the Oklahoma City suburb Monday, flattening entire
neighborhoods and destroying an elementary school with a direct blow as
children and teachers huddled against winds." (AP Photo/Brennan Linsley)
What Happens When The TV Meteorologist Has To Take Cover?
I've wondered this many times myself: "what happens if the tornado
approaches the TV station?" Go down with the ship? Here's a clip from
NBC News and
mashable.com: "
A
massive storm generated several tornadoes on Sunday in the Midwest,
hitting Kansas, Oklahoma and Missouri. The tornado in Kansas got so bad
that news station staff at the NBC affiliate TV station in Wichita,
Kan. had to leave in the middle of a live broadcast to take cover. In
the dramatic video, the channel's meteorologist JD Rudd is talking
about the extreme weather in front of a radar image of the storm when,
after a few seconds, producers tells him it's time to leave..."
Hurricane Season Comes With Plan For Better Forecast.
This story comes as something of a relief; I'm sick of talking about
the ECMWF (European) weather model. It's time for the U.S. to step on
the gas and retake the lead in weather modeling. Here's an excerpt of a
Jason Samenow article at
The Washington Post: "...
The
summer and fall hold the possibility of big storms but also steps
toward better forecasts. An infusion of Sandy-related dollars from
Congress will help the National Weather Service upgrade two
supercomputers that are used in virtually all U.S. weather predictions.
That, in turn, could close what some have called an embarrassing gap
between the primary U.S. and European computer models. The European
model has generally been more adept at forecasting the paths and
intensities of major storms, and that pattern held in October when the
it projected the lethal westward turn by Sandy even as the early U.S.
model showed it drifting to the east harmlessly, toward open ocean..."
Tropical Whispers. The GFS forecast, valid midday
Wednesday, June 5 shows a possible tropical depression or weak tropical
storm approaching south Florida. Confidence level: very low, but the
models continue to hint at development in the tropics. We'll keep an eye
on what may evolve into "Andrea". Image: WSI.
Sluggish Warming Trend. As much as I want 80s (like
many of you), I'm starting to dread the warm fronts just a little, in
light of the recent uptick in severe storms and tornadoes. After a very
slow start tornado season is upon us, the weather we should have seen
2-4 weeks ago. Everything has been delayed, including (sustained) summer
heat. A rainy day today gives way to comfortable sunshine tomorrow,
more showers Friday night, and then a drying trend over the weekend.
Memorial Day appears to be the warmest day of the holiday weekend,
temperatures warming to or above 80 by the latter half of next week.
A Less Optimistic Holiday Weekend Prediction. I'm
basing a partly sunny, dry Sunday and Monday primarily on ECMWF model
data, but the GFS solution (above) is definitely wetter for Minnesota
and the Upper Midwest Sunday and Memorial Day, especially southern
Minnesota. I'm not buying this solution just yet, but it is a holiday
(with high "bust potential"), so I'm not ruling it out either. What can
go wrong, and what time?
Will Summer Stick This Time? I think so, but
considering how erratic the jet stream has been this "spring" it's
anyone's guess. GFS data shows highs reaching the 80s by the end of next
week, a longer stretch of 80s to near 90F. the first week of June.
We'll see.
Welcome To The Programmable World. When all our
devices start talking to each other, watch out. I keep picturing The
Terminator coming from the future to save us from ourselves. Connected,
programmable devices are already here, and the trends are undeniable, as
described in this terrific article at
Wired; here's an excerpt: "...
In
this future, the intelligence once locked in our devices now flows
into the universe of physical objects. Technologists have struggled to
name this emerging phenomenon. Some have called it the Internet of Things
or the Internet of Everything or the Industrial Internet—despite the
fact that most of these devices aren’t actually on the Internet directly
but instead communicate through simple wireless protocols. Other
observers, paying homage to the stripped-down tech embedded in so many
smart devices, are calling it the Sensor Revolution. But here’s a better
way to think about what we’re building: It’s the Programmable World.
After all, what’s remarkable about this future isn’t the sensors, nor
is it that all our sensors and objects and devices are linked together.
It’s the fact that once we get enough of these objects onto our
networks, they’re no longer one-off novelties or data sources but
instead become a coherent system, a vast ensemble that can be
choreographed, a body that can dance..."
Climate Stories...
Are There More Tornadoes Because Of Global Warming? The
short answer is "probably not", but the data set is somewhat unreliable
(plenty of noise in the data). Increases in water vapor and instability
in a warming world MAY be at least partially offset by a decrease in
wind shear (as northern latitudes warm faster than southern laitudes),
but the research is still preliminary. Dry areas are getting drier, wet
areas wetter, with a causal connection to spikes in flooding rains and
even hurricane intensity. But the link with (severe) tornadoes is not
obvious, at least not yet. Minnesota climate scientist Greg Laden has
more in this comprehensive post at
scienceblogs.com: "
There
are good reasons to believe that global warming leads to more
storminess, but the exact nature of that transition is unclear and hard
to measure. Part of the reason for this difficulty is that a given
type of storm may become more likely under certain conditions caused by
climate change, while a different kind of storm may become less
likely, with the “storminess” overall increasing but doing so
indifferent ways across time. Also, the most severe, and thus possibly
the most important, weather events are infrequent so it is difficult to
see changes over time with any statistical confidence. I address many
of these issues here and here..."
Image credit: this frame-grab from the 1986 Brooklyn Park, Springbrook Nature Center tornado courtesy of KARE-11 and tcmedia.com.
