Stages of "Spring"
Irritation. Anger. Incredulity. Shock. I hope I get to acceptance.
Now I look at the maps and just laugh. It's that - or weep uncontrollably, mourning a spring that might have been.
I'm so sorry I pressed the wrong button on my Doppler. It's all my fault.
Earth Day 2013 and the weather map still looks
like something out of The Twilight Zone. A wave of low pressure tracking
east along a cold front changes rain to snow tonight. Another plowable
slush-fest is expected tonight, as much as 3-6" for parts of the metro.
Then, a reinforcing cold front Wednesday, with PM sprinkles mixing with
snow flurries.
Followed by a Light-Switch Spring: 60s by
Friday; temperatures soar into the 70s Sunday & Monday. Snow - mud -
green lawns, all in the span of 72 hours?
If you blink, hiccup or sneeze, you may miss spring altogether this year.
Rapid warmth, coupled with moderate to heavy
rain predicted for the Red River Valley by Monday, will unleash the
4-10" of liquid water still trapped in the snow cover up north. I have a
bad feeling about flood potential in Fargo & tornado season
statewide.
What happened to global warming? Winter is
hanging on here, but March was the 8th warmest on record, worldwide,
according to NASA. Details below.
Not Again. May I be excused? At least for the next
24 hours? I may have to retreat to the Weather Bunker - just when I
thought Minnesotan's couldn't get any more depressed. Here is the 00z
WSI 12km RPM model, showing a few inches of slush tonight: 3-6", with
the best chance of 5-6" northern and western suburbs, maybe some 5-10"
amounts southwestern and south central Minnesota. Yes, I hope the models
are wrong too.
God-Willing: The Last Time You Have To See This Graph.
Here is the model spread for tonight's (last?) snow event. Models print
out about .4 to .7" liquid after temperatures in the lowest mile of the
atmosphere are cold enough for mostly snow. Expect heavy wet snow
(again), mixed with sleet this evening, probably enough to shovel.
Whatever falls should be mostly-gone by Tuesday afternoon. Graphic: Iowa
State.
Die - Winter - Die. Too melodramatic? You can't
begin to appreciate the amount of crap I've been getting in recent
weeks: insults, threats...dirty looks. And that's just from friends and
family members. I don't even want to think about the general public.
Colder air drains into Minnesota today - temperatures aloft warm enough
for all rain until the dinner hour, when sleet may mix in, a changeover
to mostly snow after 7 pm, give or take. It snows hard until 2-3 am,
before tapering to flurries Tuesday morning. This wave of low pressure
moves quickly, skies clear Tuesday (with rapid melting of snow). A
reinforcing cold front arrives Wednesday, and then we start to warm up. A
real warm-up.
-14 F low Saturday morning at Embarrass, Minnesota.
According to the Minnesota State Climatology Office that's the coldest
temperature ever reported in the state on April 20. Previous record: 0F
at Cloquet (1928). It was also the coldest temperature ever reported in
MInnesota during the second half of April. (photo:
Birch Leaf Photography).
The Only Thing Tempering My Excitement About A Real Warm Front.
As you know all too well by now - there's still plenty of snow on the
ground up north. The map above from NOAA shows SWE, the Snow Water
Equivalent, roughly how much water is locked in the remaining
snowpack: as much as 6-10" of liquid water over much of the Red River
Basin - water that will get flushed into the Red River in the coming
weeks as temperatures warm (and more rain falls, accelerating snow
melt). I have a hunch the 40% risk of a record crest in Fargo (NOAA
prediction) may rise in the coming days. I hope I'm wrong, but this
light-switch warm front has me a bit paranoid.
It Looks Real This Time. ECMWF model data shows 60s
by Friday, a shot at 70 Saturday, with a better chance of 70s by Sunday
and Monday. It's hard to imagine, but there will be precious little snow
left on your (rapidly greening) lawn by next weekend.
I've Never Been Happier Tracking A Warm Front.
ECMWF model data (courtesy of WSI) valid midday Monday, a week from
today, shows a strong southwest flow ahead of an advancing front. Highs
may climb well into the 70s Monday afternoon; 80F not out of the
question over southwestern Minnesota.
Will Spring "Stick"? Probably. GFS data shows highs
consistently in the 60s and 70s the first week of May; a chance of 80F
Thursday of next week. We'll see about that - but I don't see any more
(severe) wintry relapses after this week. Excuse me while I say a silent
prayer...
Cold Weather Nugget. Thanks to NOAA for passing this one along.
Flooding Threatens Along Mississippi River From Iowa To Missouri. Here's a video and excerpt from a
Washington Post story on the growing risk of major flooding: "
The
fast-rising Mississippi River was making travel difficult Saturday,
both on the river and for those simply trying to get across it. The
Mississippi, Missouri and other Midwestern rivers in at least six
states have surged since torrential rains drenched the region over the
past few days. At least two deaths are blamed on flash flooding and a
third was suspected, while crews in Indiana were searching for a man
whose car was swept away. The National Weather Service predicted what it
characterizes as “major” flooding on the Mississippi from the Quad
Cities to just north of St. Louis by this weekend, with similar
projections farther south into early next week. Some smaller rivers are
expected to see record flooding..."
Flooding Along The Illinois River. Here are some remarkable photos from
The Journal Star,
documenting the extent of flooding on the Illinois River Why do I think
this is an omen, especially for the Red River Valley within 2 weeks? I
hope I'm wrong.
Photo credit above: RON JOHNSON/JOURNAL STAR "
A boat sits in a flooded portion of a neighborhood along Oak Lawn Street in Chillicothe on Saturday."
8th Warmest March - Worldwide.
NOAA NCDC reports
10th warmest, but NASA GISS data suggests that last month tied 2006 for
8th warmest. Thanks to Graham Saunders for bringing
this link to my attention.
"Chasing Ice" Screening At Macalester College This Evening.
I'll have the pleasure of presenting meteorological trends, and my
journey from skeptic in the 80s to acknowledging climate science, based
largely on the meteorological signals of the 90s and more recent years,
which pointed me toward peer-reviewed climate science. Here are
more details on this evening's screening of Jim Balog's amazing documentary at Macalester College: "
On
Monday, April 22nd from 7-9pm the Sustainability Office, Geo Club, and
Bio Club will be hosting Paul Douglas for a short presentation
followed by a screening of the documentary Chasing Ice. Paul Douglas is
a nationally respected meteorologist, moderate political conservative,
and climate change activist. He will be sharing the story of his
evolution from climate change skeptic to acknowledging the science.
Douglas’s personal story and account of the science behind climate
change will prime the audience for the viewing of Chasing Ice-- a visual masterpiece of the haunting reality of climate change in our world today.
Chasing Ice, follows 'National Geographic' photographer James Balog
across the Arctic as he deploys revolutionary time-lapse cameras
designed for one purpose: to capture a multi-year record of the world's
changing glaciers. Balog's videos compress years into seconds and
capture ancient mountains of ice in motion as they disappear at a
breathtaking rate. Traveling with a young team of adventurers by
helicopter, canoe and dog sled across three continents, Balog risks his
career and his well-being in pursuit of the biggest story in human
history. As the debate polarizes America and the intensity of natural
disasters ramp up around the world, 'Chasing Ice' depicts a heroic
photojournalist on a mission to gather evidence and deliver hope to our
carbon-powered planet."
Boston Made TV Feel "So Slow". Were you on Twitter
during the Boston terrorism event? There is always a risk of getting bad
information on social media, but you can also get erroneous "news" on
traditional media. It all comes down to "trusted sources" on Twitter -
the velocity of news was incredible last week, and as this story at
mediaite.com
points out, Twitter almost made the TV networks seem like they were
operating in slow motion. It's part of the democratization of media. I
suspect it's not a fad, but a powerful trend in the making: "...
(CNN)
Host Howard Kurtz and Daily Beast columnist Lauren Ashburn went over
some of the scoops and images which twitter users were able publish
instantly over the course of the week’s events, from the instant the
bombing in Boston was reported to the eventual capture of Dzokhar
Tsarnaev. “Is Twitter and other social media sites, are they putting
pressure on the media?” Kurtz asked. “Are they adding to what the media
are able to report? Because, after all, there are only so many
journalists in every newsroom.” Kurtz said that Concha had identified a
trend in which Twitter has opened the dialogue to millions of people
rather than a select few in old media. “I would say there are now six
news networks,” Concha said. “There’s CBS, NBC, ABC, CNN, Fox, and
Twitter...”
* more on the (sometimes imperfect) coverage on the networks last week from
Huffington Post.
Climate Stories...
Is Our Extreme Weather Linked To Climate Change? Here's an excerpt of a story at
The La Crosse Tribune: “...
It’s
a shame that people and ideas are pigeonholed into classifications of
alarmism or science deniers,” Lussky said. “I don’t know that I’ve seen
any two people that would be classified by some as skeptics that would
agree with each other.“ Calling the debate on climate change closed is
the antithesis of science, Lussky said. And combining science with
politics isn’t always a great mix. “If you’re going to stay true to the
science, becoming an advocate… it takes away from that,” he said. Lussky
earned his master’s degree at the University of Wisconsin, doing
research for the Center for Climatic Research that Notaro helps guide.
Yet, he disagrees with some of its conclusions. “There’s so much we
don’t know,” he said..." (file derecho image: Brittney Misialek, NOAA SPC).
China's Clean Energy Investment Puts America To Shame.
Will we be buying most of our solar panels, wind turbines and
next-generation batteries from China? I'm starting to wonder. Here's an
excerpt from an important article at
The Motley Fool: "...
In China, the energy debate is very different.
When China sees its imports of coal rising and dependence on foreign
oil growing, it springs into action. Not by screaming, "Drill, baby,
drill," but by investing billions of dollars in home-grown energy
sources. Yes, I'm talking about clean, renewable energy, and China's
investment in these energy sources make U.S. subsidies look like the
half-hearted effort they are. China has put tens (maybe hundreds) of
billions of dollars into building a renewable manufacturing industry, and it started long before the U.S. even noticed the emergence of wind and solar power..."
Unburnable Carbon 2013: Wasted Capital And Stranded Assets. Here is an excerpt of the report from
The Carbon Tracker Initiative that generated a lot of press last week: "...
This
new research from Carbon Tracker and the Grantham Research Institute
on Climate Change and the Environment at LSE calls for regulators,
governments and investors to re-evaluate energy business models against
carbon budgets, to prevent $6trillion carbon bubble in the next
decade. Unburnable carbon 2013: Wasted capital and stranded assets has
revealed that fossil fuel reserves already far exceed the carbon
budget to avoid global warming of 2°C, but in spite of this, spent
$674billion last year to find and develop new potentially stranded
assets.
“Smart investors can see that investing in companies that rely
solely or heavily on constantly replenishing reserves of fossil fuels is
becoming a very risky decision. The report raises serious questions as
to the ability of the financial system to act on industry-wide long
term risk, since currently the only measure of risk is performance
against industry benchmarks.” Professor Lord Stern
Antarctic Ice Melt Has Increased Ten-Fold Over Past 1,000 Years. Here's the intro to a story at
Mother Nature Network: "
Summer
ice melt has increased tenfold over the last millennium in the
Antarctic Peninsula, with most of the melt occurring during the last
several decades in conjunction with global warming, new research
suggests. Rapid melt can destabilize glaciers and ice shelves (the
tongues of glaciers that float on the ocean), suggesting that there
could be some dramatic collapses and a resulting increase in sea levels
if the melting continues. "What that means is that the Antarctic Peninsula
has warmed to a level where even small increases in temperature can
now lead to a big increase in summer ice melt," study co-author Nerilie
Abram, a researcher at the Australian National University and the
British Antarctic Survey, said in a statement..."
Photo credit above:
Armin Rose/Shutterstock
Seeing Climate Change: Film By National Geographic Photographer Visits MSU. Here's a story about the film "Chasing Ice", which is now being shown on
The National Geographic Channel - you definitely want to check it out, if you can. This story ran at
mlive.com: "...
As
a photographer, Orlowski says, James Balog wants to make climate
change and other social issues visible. Glaciers react dramatically to
atmospheric changes, he says, that are otherwise hard to notice. “It’s
inherently invisible,” Orlowski says. “You’re talking about temperature
and carbon dioxide changes.” Moving and changing ice-covered landscapes
illustrate climate change, he says, which is why photographer Balog
was so dedicated to and passionate about the project. The two met
through a mutual friend, Orlowski says, and he offered to film Balog’s
initial visit to Iceland. The original intent was to document Balog’s
story for the sake of having a record, he says, but the team decided to
make a film after a year and a half of documentation. On his first few
trips, Orlowski says it was impactful to hear about where the glacier
was a year ago or to see a data marker in the ground. However, he says
seeing the changes in person or through Balog’s time lapses is much
more impactful..."
Dr. Frank Bures: Climate Change Is Hurting Our Health. Here's a snippet of a story that ran in
The Winona Daily News: "...
Indicators
of early health effects of climate change include increases in annual
deaths from extreme heat, both in high- and low-income countries;
increases in deaths and injuries from rising weather disasters;
extensions in the geographic ranges of insect-borne infections due to
warming and longer summers; and increases in the prices of foods,
especially in vulnerable, food-insecure regions....Air pollution by
particulates from coal burning and diesel fumes is another dimension of
the medical issue. China has been the largest emitter of greenhouse
gases since 2007, and recent air alerts in Beijing were graphic. The
British medical journal Lancet reported that 1.2 million premature
deaths in China were attributed to air pollution, called ambient
particulate matter..."
Burn Our Planet Or Face Financial Meltdown. Not Much Of A Choice. Here's a portion of an Op-Ed at
The Guardian: "
The
world is going to fry – unless there is change soon. There is
weakening political will to make national and international targets for
carbon reduction stick, no strong business and financial coalition
prepared to lead and a weakening groundswell of public opinion prepared
to foot the bill. Instead, the international consensus of 25 years ago – that the world must act to challenge climate change
– is dissolving. Individual countries are trying to steal a march on
each other in a race to the bottom, dropping whatever scant penalties
there have been for burning fossil fuels...."
Photo credit above: "
The polluted town of Huaxi in China, where excessive carbon use isn't penalised." Photograph: Carlos Barria/Reuters.
