Snowy Rumors
You have your pet peeves? So do meteorologists.
Predict 4 to 8 inches and people remember 8. "Where's that 8 inches you
promised me, Paul?" We give a range of amounts because, as good as the
models are, they're not that good. "Why can't you find an identical
storm in the past to find out what we'll get?" Every storm is different;
every scenario is unique. There has never been a day identical to
today. Humbling, and perpetually challenging.
Some perspective: we're waking up to the second
subzero morning of February; this makes 8 nights of negative bliss for
MSP. The latest 30 year climate data shows an average of 22.5 nights
below zero every winter. How do you get half a night below zero? Fun
with statistics.
A deep layer of arctic air will insure all snow;
fairly light and powdery Thursday night into Friday. I'm thinking
something in the 4-7 inch range; 8-9" for southern MN. You'll want to
play in all that fresh (perfect) snow Saturday.
Another southern storm pushes wet, slushy snow
into town Monday night and Tuesday; maybe a few more sloppy inches.
We'll hit freezing next week (woo hoo!) but no springy warm fronts are
in sight.
Old Man Winter isn't nearly done with us yet.
Snowfall: Heaviest South/West of MSP. I still think
we'll see enough snow to shovel/plow Thursday night into Friday. For
parts of Iowa, Nebraska and Kansas this could border on a crippling
snowfall - light, powdery, prone to blowing and drifting. NAM guidance
above shows predicted snowfall by midnight Friday, when snow should be
tapering to flurries.
Looks Like Snow. We're tracking two separate storms;
one light and powdery snowfall Thursday night into Friday (3-7"), a
second slushier, wetter snowfall early next week capable of a few more
inches. Giddy times for snow lovers. Commuters? Not so much. Graphic:
Iowa State.
ECMWF Guidance. The reason I'm including this is
because (frequently) the European model does a slightly better job than
the U.S. models, including NAM and GFS. Sometimes, but not always. The
latest run is printing out less (liquid) precipitation for Friday's
storm. .31" liquid would translate into 4-5" of powdery snow. As
temperatures approach freezing Monday and Tuesday snowfall will be
wetter and slushier, .51" could equate into another 3-5" of wet snow.
All told we'll probably pick up another 10" of snow between now and next Tuesday in the metro. Uh oh. Breaking news.
More Blizzards, Yet Less Snow Overall? I know it
sounds like a disconnect, but it's the same trend we're seeing during
the summer month: storms spaced farther apart, more time in-between rain
events, but when it does decide to rain it comes down in buckets,
torrents - tropical deluges. According to the Minnesota Climate Office
southern Minnesota has experienced 3 separate 1-in-1,000 flash floods
just since 2004. I could see one, but three? These trends are now
spilling over into winter months, the result of a warmer atmosphere
above to hold more water vapor. Basic physics. Here are more climate
science details in today's 2.30
WeatherNation Update.
"Hurricane Hunter" Planes Out Of Alaska, Hawaii Help Predict Winter Weather.
Weather satellites only go so far - having Hurricane Hunter aircraft
probe major winter storms can help initialize NOAA's weather models with
more accurate weather data - leading to consistently better forecasts.
OregonLive.com has the story; here's an excerpt: "
JUNEAU,
Alaska — What's the trick to helping figure out winter weather on the
U.S. mainland? One way, according to meteorologists, is sending a
hurricane hunter aircraft from Alaska or Hawaii to fly reconnaissance
over the Pacific Ocean. For about 15 years, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
has conducted such flights with the goal of improving weather
forecasts for the United States — an idea born after winter flights
over the North Atlantic improved storm forecasting in Europe..."
Photo credit above: "
Lead
electronics technician Gabriel Defeo works at a console on NOAA's
Gulfstream IV aircraft during a Honolulu-based winter storms
reconnaissance mission in January. The console controls the plane's tail
Doppler radar." Associated Press.
Bitter Alaska - Possible Cue Of Warmer Air For Minnesota Withing 2 Weeks?
When Alaska is unusually mild, Minnesota tends to be frigid, and vice
versa. The fact that Alaska is turning bitter may be a cue that milder
air will push into the Upper Midwest by early March. We'll see. More
details via NOAA and Facebook: "
The combination of clear skies and a
cold airmass has resulted in a chilly morning across northern Alaska.
Temperatures of -40° F or colder were reported at many locations from
the Interior to the North Slope. Although these readings are below
normal for mid-February…no records were tied or broken. For the latest
interior and northern Alaska weather information visit:
www.weather.gov/fairbanks via Facebook."
$188 Billion Price Tag From U.S. Severe Weather From 2011 To 2012. Climate Progress and
beforeitsnews.com have the story; here's an excerpt: "
The
United States was subjected to many severe climate-related extreme
weather over the past two years. In 2011 there were 14 extreme weather
events — floods, drought, storms, and wildfires — that each caused at
least $1 billion in damage. There were another 11 such disasters in
2012. Most of these extreme weather events reflect part of the unpaid
bill from climate change — a tab that will only grow over time...."
- 67 percent of U.S. counties and 43 states were affected by “billion-dollar damage” extreme weather events in 2011 and 2012.
- 1,107 fatalities resulted from these 25 extreme weather events in 2011 and 2012.
- Up to $188 billion in damage was caused by these severe weather events in 2011 and 2012.
- $50,346.58 was the average household income in
counties declared a disaster due to these weather events—3 percent
below the U.S. median household income of $51,914. [2]
- 356 all-time high temperature records were broken in 2012.
- 34,008 daily high temperature records were set or tied throughout 2012, compared to just 6,664 daily record lows—a ratio of 5-to-1.
- 19 states had their warmest year ever in 2012.
Budget Cuts Threaten Weather Forecasts, NOAA Warns. Here's a clip of a story from Climate Central and
Huffington Post that made me do a double-take: "
Automatic
budget cuts set to take effect March 1 could add to the woes of the
federal government’s troubled weather satellite programs, jeopardizing
future forecasts, a top official said Friday. “It’s not going to be
pretty,” outgoing National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
chief Jane Lubchenco said of the package of across-the-board spending
cuts known as “sequestration.” “The sequester has the potential to wreak
havoc with so many different things, and satellites loom large within
that,” she told reporters at the annual meeting of the American Association for the Advancement of Science. “There’s just so much uncertainty. Nobody knows how long it might last, and it’s very difficult to plan for that...”
Photo credit above: "
The VIIRS sensor on the NOAA/NASA
Suomi NPP satellite passed over the central eye of Hurricane Sandy on
Oct. 25, 2012. Without the satellite data, NOAA’s weather forecasts
would become less reliable." Credit: JPSS/NOAA/NASA
Weather Satellites Could Miss The Next Hurricane Sandy.
There may be a serious gap in coverage with the POES (polar orbiting)
weather satellites; data which is fed into computer models, data which
made a tangible difference forecasting major winter storms (and Sandy)
during recent years. Here's a portion of a
Yahoo Finance article that caught my eye: "...
Since
the 1970′s, America had two sets of polar-orbiting weather satellites,
one operated by the government’s weather researchers, and the other by
military. In 1994, it was decided that combining them into one
operation would save a lot of money. After 16 years
of unsuccessful attempts to do that, the government threw up its hands
and decided to split the task, giving the weather agency the late
afternoon orbit and the military the early morning, with the mid-day
orbit shared with the European space agency. But even these separate
plans have been plagued by delays, and the GAO warns that the gap in
afternoon coverage by the weather researchers could last from 17 to 53
months. The defense department, meanwhile has decided to launch
previously mothballed satellites. which may not have the technology to
perform the kinds of observation needed for weather forecasting..."
More Images From The New England Storm. Here's an excerpt of a fascinating story at
NASA's Earth Observatory: "
Marshall Shepherd,
current president of the American Meteorological Society and director
of the atmospheric science program at the University of Georgia,
tweeted out this annotated version of a Terra MODIS satellite image of
the storm aftermath. It seems that the monumental snowfall highlighted
some land features of New England, including its longest river, one of the largest manmade reservoirs in the United States (Quabbin), and the scar of a vicious tornado..."
Impact-Based Severe Storm Warnings. NOAA is testing
new wording (to get consumers to take action, to actually get up off
their couches) in Kansas and Missouri. Here's an excerpt of a story (and
video) from
WICS-TV: "
From
now on, severe weather events will include “impact-based” warnings. The
idea has been tested in Missouri and Kansas already. The focus is to
include statements that indicate how much damage will come with a storm,
to give the public a better idea of a storm’s severity. The NWS works
with local television and radio stations, as well as emergency
management agencies, to disseminate storm information to the public
through broadcasts and sirens. Generally, the Logan County Emergency
Management Agency uses three factors to determine when they activate
their outdoor sirens..."
In America Weather Forecasters Get A Yugo While Climate Modelers Gets A Ferrari. Here's a portion of a post from Eric Berger at
The San Francisco Chronicle: "
Cliff Mass, a professor of atmospheric sciences at the University of Washington, recently posted
some eye-opening graphics about computers used by national forecasters.
The post came after a forecast model run by the European forecast
center (ECMWF) kicked the tail of the U.S. model (Global Forecast System)
in regard to both Hurricane Sandy and the recent blizzard that struck
the northeastern United States. In both cases the European model showed a
clear severe storm threat to the northeastern United States five days
out where the American model did not. “Disappointing,” Mass concludes.
If you’re interested, I also recently interviewed one of the top European modelers about some of reasons why they’ve become so successful..."
Researchers Prove Air Pollution Causes Heart Attacks. Forbes has the eye-opening article; here's the intro: "
Air
pollution causes heart attacks and death. Especially when the
pollutants include ozone and particulate matter. And more often in the
summer time, when ozone levels are higher. These are the conclusions of
researchers at Rice University who studied the 11,677 cases of cardiac arrest logged by emergency services personnel in Houston,
Tx. between 2004 and 2011. They found that during periods of peak
pollution, the heart attack risk to Houston residents increases as much
as 4.6%..." (
AP Photo/Mark Lennihan).
* America's 20 Dirtiest Cities? 7 of them are in California. Forbes has the details
here.
Normally Typhoon-Free Mindanao (Philippines) Suffers 3rd Cyclone In 2013.
Weather patterns are shifting, and there are few climate change
skeptics in the Philippines after a series of devasting cyclones (same
thing as hurricanes, only even more intense over the western Pacific).
GMA News has the story; here's an excerpt: "
Weather
disturbances are usually unheard of in Mindanao, especially at this
time of year. But these are no longer ordinary times. Three storms have
already hit the country's south in 2013, including Tropical Depression Crising which made landfall over Davao del Sur at 1 p.m. Tuesday.
Two of the deadliest storms to strike the Philippines in the last two
years, "Sendong" and "Pablo," barreled through Mindanao and away from
the usual typhoon belt of Samar heading north to Luzon. Auring and
Bising were the first cyclones to hammer Mindanao this year..."
Inquirer Editorial: Must Storms Have Their Own Names? I'm going to start naming sunny days, just for something to do. Here's an excerpt of an Op-Ed from
Philly.com: "
The
creeping acceptance of a mercenary scheme to name winter storms is not
among the most important things in the news, or even the weather. But
like an ill wind, it carries an unmistakable whiff of chaos and
dissipation. The system for naming hurricanes and tropical storms
was developed over decades to facilitate communications about weather
patterns that can endanger large swaths of the planet. Storms must
reach sustained winds of at least 40 m.p.h. before they earn a name
from one of several rotating lists established by an international
committee of the U.N. World Meteorological Organization in Geneva.
Officials even have a deliberate procedure to retire the names of the
most damaging storms once a year..."
Welcome To My World. Wally, I feel your pain. I like
the snow, but I could live without the subzero stuff. But it lowers the
crime rate (allegedly) and my garbage doesn't stink, so there are
benefits. Next week will be milder. Freezing will feel disturbingly
good.
Climate Stories...
Forecasting Climate With A Chance Of Backlash. My
friend, Jim Gandy, is a seasoned TV meteorologist in Columbia, South
Carolina, a (very) red state. He's been including regular segments on
climate change in his television weathercasts, tying it into the changes
South Carolinians are already witnessing all around them. Jim's efforts
are featured in this
NPR story, where I'm briefly quoted. Here's an excerpt: "
When
it comes to climate change, Americans place great trust in their local
TV weathercaster, which has led climate experts to see huge potential
for public education. The only problem? Polls
show most weather presenters don't know much about climate science,
and many who do are fearful of talking about something so polarizing.
In fact, if you have heard a weathercaster speak on climate change,
it's likely been to deny it. John Coleman in San Diego and Anthony
Watts of Watts Up With That?
are among a group of vocal die-hards, cranking out blog posts and
videos countering climate science. But even many meteorologists who
don't think it's all a hoax still profoundly distrust climate models.
"They get reminded each and every day anytime their models don't prove
to be correct," says Ed Maibach, who directs the Center for Climate Change Communication at George Mason University,
and has carried out several surveys of TV weathercasters. "For them,
the whole notion of projecting what the climate will be 30, 50, a
hundred years from now, they've got a fairly high degree of skepticism"....
Is It Time For A National Climate Summit? The short answer is yes. Here's an excerpt of a story at
The Summit County Citizens Voice: "
Citing
damage from intense storms like Sandy, more intense and frequent
wildfires and prolonged droughts, a coalition of national groups,
including the American Meteorological Society and the American Fisheries Society,
are calling for a national, science-based climate summit. In a Feb. 8
letter to President Bararck Obama, the groups said the summit “would be
designed to identify policies and actions that can be taken by each
Federal agency and by state and local governments to address the causes
and effects of climate change.” Other groups signing on to the letter
include: Society for Conservation Biology, Society for Ecological Restoration, The Wildlife Society and the Ecological Society of America..."
China To Introduce Carbon Tax: Official. Now I've seen everything. Here's a clip from the China's official news agency,
Xinhua: "
BEIJING,
Feb. 19 (Xinhua) -- China will proactively introduce a set of new
taxation policies designed to preserve the environment, including a tax
on carbon dioxide emissions, according to a senior official with the
Ministry of Finance (MOF). The government will collect the environmental
protection tax instead of pollutant discharge fees, as well as levy a
tax on carbon dioxide emissions, Jia Chen, head of the ministry's tax
policy division, wrote in an article published on the MOF's website. It
will be the local taxation authority, rather than the environmental
protection department, that will collect the taxes..."
Volcanic CO2 Caused Ancient Episodes Of Global Warming.
Keep in mind that (today), volcanoes spew greenhouse about the same
amount of greenhouse gases, including CO2, as the state of Florida. It
wasn't always this way - tens and hundreds of millions of years ago
volcanoes were erupting (simultaneously) around the world, pumping
enormous amounts of carbon into the atmosphere, leading to dramatic
warming.
Climate Central has the details; here's a clip: "
The
main effect of volcanoes in the modern world is to cool the planet by
throwing particles of sulfur dioxide high into the stratosphere, where
they temporarily block the Sun. In the distant past, however,
paleo-climatologists have long believed that volcanic activity was a
major cause of global warming. Massive eruptions - far more powerful
than anything going on today - can pump large amoounts of heat-trapping
carbon dioxide into the air. The problem with that theory is that those
events don't last long enough to explain periods of warmer climate that
have lasted tens of millions of years..."
Photo credit above: "
The new idea is that it's a more
sustainted series of eruptions from volcanoes in strategic locations
along the edge of continents that cause these long periods of warmth." Credit: flickr/NASA's Marshall Space Flight Center.
Study Links Tobacco, Tea Party, Climate Denial...And Climate Change.
Climate Denial Crock of the Week has the story (and video clio). Here's an excerpt: "
The
anti-science movement is rooted in decades old realization among
conservative corporate and political entities, that the findings of
science were not always compatible with the economic interests of the
wealthy and powerful. (read this post first for background. If you still
have 17 minutes, the video above is worth your time) The publication of an exhaustive investigation
into the origins of a tobacco funded anti-science movement got
headlines last week, as clear lines can now be drawn between corporate
pirates like David Koch, the Tobacco barons, and “grassroots” movements
like the Tea Party, all of which are prominent in the climate denial
movement..."
The Case For Civil Disobedience on Climate Change. Bill McKibben's efforts are highlighted in this
Treehugger story; here's a clip: "
To better understand why it is so important to stop the Keystone XL pipeline and why tens of thousands rallied in DC on Sunday and why activists participated in acts of civil disobedience, you must understand the math of global warming. Unfortunately, the media has often framed
the fight over the tar sands pipeline as a matter of regional concern
over risks to the water supply. And while those concerns are valid,
Keystone is dangerous to the entire world and a threat to regional water
supply.
Bill McKibben did a superb job explaining the basics of the climate
crisis with three key numbers in his must-read post for Rolling Stone last summer..."
