Snow possible Saturday morning, even a couple of inches of slush for central Minnesota, possibly the MSP metro.
3.1" snow. Average April snowfall in the Twin Cities (1971-2000 MSP data, courtesy of The Minnesota Climatology Working Group).
80s likely the latter half of next week. We may see a 50 degree temperature rise in roughly 4-5 days.
"Sunshine is delicious, rain is refreshing, wind braces us up, snow is exhilarating; this is really no such thing as bad weather, only different kinds of good weather." - John Ruskin
* note: it should be pointed out that Mr. Ruskin spent no time in Minnesota.
2,614 daily weather records from April 18-25 across the USA. Details below.
"Masters wrote: "Nearly every weather station in the Inter-mountain West has broken, tied, or come within 1- 2°F of their all-time record April heat record since Sunday." - from a Climate Central article; details below.
Wednesday Extremes:
106 F. at Childress, Texas
20 F. at Raco, Michigan
Expletives Encouraged. This isn't real (yet). It's just one solution, the most recent (00z) NAM model. Although precipitation late Friday into midday Saturday will probably fall as mostly rain, a period of slushy, wet snow can't be ruled out, especially Saturday morning. Yes, there is a (small, but growing) chance you'll wake up to a sloppy coating of white on your neon-green lawn Saturday morning. I hope the models are wrong...
More Evidence Of "Global Weirding"? There is a significant chance that the Twin Cities metro will go from slushy snow Saturday morning to 80-degree warmth just 4 days later. The ECMWF solution (above - in Celsius, thank God) shows highs in the 76-82 F. range from Wednesday through the first weekend of May. Just when you think you've seen everything....along comes 2012.
"Natural factors in climate change – solar variability, Milankovic cycles, volcanism, El Nino, even cosmic rays – have been investigated very thoroughly, and none of the natural factors are capable of generating the observed disruptions in the global climate."
"Not only have multiple independent researchers demonstrated that global temperatures are likely greater than at any period in the last 2000 years, but the data used by researchers are all independent too. Sources as varied as marine sediments, corals, tree rings, stalagmites, boreholes, the length of glacial tongues, ice cores, and lake sediments all independently confirm that modern global temperatures are anomalously high. Independent researchers using independent data and methodologies to reproduce the each other’s results is the ideal for how to conduct good science." - from a post by climate scientist Brian Angliss at Scholars & Rogues; more details and links below.
74% of Chinese electricity is generated by coal-fired plants. Roughly half of the world's electricity is driven by burning coal, which releases greenhouse gases into the atmosphere. Source: PBS.
"It's either the greatest threat civilisation has ever faced, or a hoax perpetrated by fraudulent scientists. Opinions on both sides of the debate are so strong that one side barely speaks with the other." - from a story at The Sydney Morning Herald; details below the 7-Day.
| Total Records: | 2614 |
| Rainfall: | 540 |
| Snowfall: | 48 |
| High Temp: | 1039 |
| Low Temp: | 90 |
| Low Max Temp: | 296 |
| High Min Temp: | 601 |
Much-Needed Rain, Lousy Timing. Models suggest anywhere from .4 to .95" of "precipitation" late Friday into Saturday - most of that should fall as rain, but...
I'm Just The Messenger. O.K. The latest NAM is suggesting 6" of slush Saturday, which is just...crazy, right? Right? Although this year I've come to expect the unexpected. Odds favor a coating to (maybe) an inch or two of slushy snow Saturday morning. Too early to panic.
Snowy Possibilities. Nothing is etched in stone. It never is, come to think of it. But 1000-850 mb thicknesses (a measure of average temperature in the lowest 3,000 feet of the atmosphere) suggests temperatures cold enough for snow. A surface temperature of 34.3 F. is predicted for MSP Saturday morning at 7 am. Snow may melt on contact, but if it snows hard enough I could see a quick inch or two of slush. If anything does fall on your nice, manicured lawn it'll be gone by Saturday afternoon. Deep breaths.
Rain, Slush, 80s - Just Another Week In Paradise. The latest GFS model still shows 80s the end of next week into the first full weekend of May, followed by a cooler surge the second week of May. We seem to be pinwheeling into a wetter pattern, the GFS hinting at over 1" of rain around May 9-10. I hope we're not speculating about drought this summer - I'm seeing some encouraging trends in the long-range maps.
Hottest April Day On Record For Texas Panhandle. From the Lubbock office of The National Weather Service: "A summary of maximum temperatures for Wednesday April 25, 2012. Many of these temperatures were the highest all-time for the month of April including Lubbock and Childress."
Frosty New England. While much of the south and southwest bakes, folks in New England are doing a little shivering this morning. Details from the Boston office of The National Weather Service, via Mark Zuckerberg: "A frost advisory and a freeze warning is in effect for tonight across areas where the growing season is in full swing the growing season for Southern New Hampshire begins early May. A frost advisory occurs when temperatures will drop between 33-36 degrees. A freeze warning is issued when temperatures will drop to 32 degrees or below. These freezing and sub-freezing temperatures which are anticipated could kill crops and other sensitive vegetation. Should you have any outdoor plants, be prepared to cover them, or if possible, bring them indoors."
Mysterious "Heat Burst". Sometimes temperatures can spike 10-30 degrees in a matter of minutes, usually the result of a violent thunderstorm downdraft nearby, rapid downward motion that can warm up the air almost instantly. More from the Springfield office of The National Weather Service: "So did anyone hear or feel the strange "Hot" winds last night about 3:00 am to 3:30 am across the Springfield metro area? Well...that was a rare phenomenon called a "Heat Burst". Heat bursts are interesting, relatively rare, atmospheric nighttime events characterized by gusty winds, a rapid increase in surface temperature, and a decrease in surface dewpoint associated with a dissipating thunderstorm. We had temperatures generally in the upper 50s to low 60s before the heat burst occurred and then in a matter of a few minutes the temperature rapidly climbed to the upper 70s to around 80 at some locations in the middle of the night. There was a 20 to 25 degree jump in temperature and winds gusting to around 40 and 50 mph. A few limbs were broken and things like trash cans and patio furniture were blown around. This graphic shows one of the weather stations in the area from Rogersville with the rapid rise in temperature around 3:00 am. Just another interesting phenomenon of the weather here in the Ozarks."
Serious Snow Removal. I'll never ever complain about MnDOT again. Check out the snow removal efforts on the part of WSdot at the Cayuse Pass, Washington State, courtesy of YouTube: "It's a delicate dance of machinery on Cayuse Pass. Every spring, WSDOT crews clear banks for snow where SR 410 meets SR 123. Due to the high costs of maintenance, and avalanche danger, the pass is closed during the winter. Parts of the roadway have accumulated 30 feet of snow. Still lots of work to do, should be open by Memorial Day."
Heat Wave Bakes West, Sets Marks And Hits High Note Of 113. Here's a clip from a good summary of record heat out west from Climate Central's meteorologist Andrew Freedman: "While the East has been dealing with a powerful Nor’easter that dumped several inches of windswept rain along the coast, and up to 2 feet of snow in the interior, the West has been baking in record heat. The heat is spreading eastward into the Plains states, but it will be short-lived there, eventually settling in the southern tier of the U.S. later this week. West Texas, which was ground zero for scorching weather last summer, is likely to see temperatures approach or eclipse the century mark this week. During the past seven days, 746 daily record-high temperatures were set or tied, along with 400 daily record-high minimum temperatures, according to the National Climatic Data Center. According to Jeff Masters of Weather Underground, the 113°F measured at Furnace Creek in Death Valley, Calif., on April 22 was tied for the hottest April temperature ever recorded in the U.S."
* More details from The Washington Post's Capital Weather Gang here.
* Hurricane Katia photo courtesy of NASA.
"Paul, can you recommend a good weather radar app? In other words, what's the best value for the app? I see a lot of very expensive radar apps that I have no idea about whether they would serve me or not. So what's the best in your opinion for what a person who wants to quickly access weather radar nationwide needs? Also, I read in the New York Times about a "Dark Sky" weather app in development that is very specific and accurate. Do you know anything about this app's developmental status, when it might be available?"
Thanks! - Rob McManus
Included features:
- display your current location
- weather conditions, forecasts and advisories for any location
- find and contact Victory dealers
- local services search with integrated direct dialing, including gas stations, restaurants, and lodging
- save waypoints along your route
- track and save multiple rides
- automatic map caching so maps can still be viewed while on the trail and outside of data coverage areas
- multitasking on iOS4 for route tracking in the background
- share saved routes to Twitter or Facebook
- export route data in GPX or CSV format
___________________________________________________________________________
Paul,
"Both the NOAA CPC 6-10 and 8-14 day forecasts are predicting anomalously high temperatures overlapping with high precipitation consistently for the last several days. I've been watching these graphs for years and don't remember seeing this before (in my observatoin, areas with higher temps than ordinary are usually dryer than ordinary and vice versa). Does this indicate "can't miss" severe weather is coming? The hazardous weather maps don't indicate this.
"Both the NOAA CPC 6-10 and 8-14 day forecasts are predicting anomalously high temperatures overlapping with high precipitation consistently for the last several days. I've been watching these graphs for years and don't remember seeing this before (in my observatoin, areas with higher temps than ordinary are usually dryer than ordinary and vice versa). Does this indicate "can't miss" severe weather is coming? The hazardous weather maps don't indicate this.
Your blog is great. We moved away from Minnesota two years ago (Rochester, on the edge of the high temp/high precip overlap), and I still follow your blog. I appreciate all you are doing."
Jeff
Spokane, WA
6-10 Day Temps/Precip. 8-14 Day Temps/Precip.
Jeff - you're right. I can't honestly remember the
last time I saw both 6-10 and 8-14 day extended (CPC) predictions of
both temperature and moisture levels well above average. Lately it seems
summer warmth: 70s, 80s and beyond are on more of an on-off switch than
a dimmer switch, and (increasingly) it's starting to look like an old
fashioned hot front the latter half of next week into the second week of
May, perhaps a streak of 80s, even a few early 90s. I hope the Climate
Prediction Center precipitation outlook is correct in terms of above
average, but here's my concern: if we do have heat + moisture (and
sufficient instability and wind shear aloft) we could have a very ripe
environment for severe thunderstorms. Which would you prefer: widespread
statewide drought, or a tornado risk every other day? Tough one.
* maps above courtesy of NOAA CPC and Ham Weather.
Photo Of The Day: "I Want My Mamma".
OK. Sorry - they don't pay enough to come up with clever captions. Best
I can do. This photo was taken at the National Weather Service office
in Morristown, Tennessee, via Facebook.
"Love is the only sane and satisfactory answer to the problem of human existance." - Eric Fromm
Getting "Stuck"
One of the trends we're seeing on the weather
maps in recent years: weather systems are moving slower, with a greater
tendency for the pattern to become "stuck". Heat waves are hotter;
storms move slower, increasing the potential for flooding. Why? Recent
research shows the Arctic has warmed twice as fast as the rest of North
America. This "Arctic Amplification"
has caused the north-south temperature/pressure gradient to weaken by
10 percent since the late 80s; jet stream winds have weakened by 14
percent.
Who cares? The jet elongates, crazy dips and
bulges, making drought worse and prolonging storms. The weather,
increasingly, is getting "stuck". That may be one reason why the models
we use have become even more unreliable. Predicting weather has never
been more challenging.
Alibis and excuses aside, I'm still worried
about a dry pattern getting stuck over Minnesota this summer. We just
haven't seen enough southern storms to make up for a 3-7 inch rainfall
deficit since last fall.
Rain brushes southern Minnesota early Saturday -
the latest NAM model hinting at a slushy inch or two of snow across
parts of central Minnesota Saturday morning, possibly in the metro area.
I know - a rude reminder that it can snow in April. Let's hope those
'dang-blasted models are dead-wrong. Sunday will be the nicer day of the
weekend, blue sky and highs in the 50s. 70s return late next week, a
streak of 80s possible late next week into the first weekend of May.
From slush to 80s in 4 days? Welcome to Minnesota. Like turning on a light switch: instant summer!
"Be loyal to what you love, be true to the earth, fight your enemies with passion and laughter." - Edward Abbey
Climate Stories....
Fact: Global warming is real. The first decade of the 21st century was the hottest decade since records have been kept. The climatological temperature, the average over both space and time, is continuing to increase."
Climate "Brightsiding". Here's an excerpt from a thought-provoking post from Climate Code Red: "Most climate advocacy and campaigning appears to assume that as long as you tell a positive story and move "in the right direction", it doesn't matter if people understand or agree about the problem. It's all about selling "good news" and not mentioning "bad news". This is how the Obama administration, Australia's Labor government, the Say Yes campaign and many national climate advocacy organizations worked in 2011."
Global Warming Has Driven Europe's Plants To Migrate 2.7 Meters Upwards In 7 Years. Science Codex has the story, here's a clip: "Researchers at the University of Granada Department of Botanic have participated in an international study that has confirmed that global warming is causing plants to migrate to higher altitudes. The study –recently published in Science– analyzed species diversity shifts in 66 summits of 17 European ranges between 2001 and 2008. In the Iberian Peninsula, two target regions were selected in the Pyrenees (Ordesa) and Sierra Nevada (Granada). Researchers found that the species under study had migrated an average of 2.7m upwards. "This finding confirms the hypothesis that a rise in temperatures drives Alpine flora to migrate upwards. As a result, rival species are threatened by competitors, which are migrating to higher altitudes. These changes pose a threat to high-mountain ecosystems in the long and medium term" the authors state."
Photo credit above: "Climate activist and Episcopal priest the Rev. Margaret Bullitt-Jonas addresses an April 23 conference on the Scientific, Religious and Cultural Implications of Global Warming in Washington, D.C."
Photo credit above: "General Electric Chairman and CEO Jeff Immelt speaks before a panel discussion in Washington (Gary Cameron Reuters, REUTERS / February 13, 2012)."
Balance In The Eye Of The Beholder In Climate Change Debate. Here's an excerpt from a story running in The Sydney Morning Herald: "It's either the greatest threat civilization has ever faced, or a hoax perpetrated by fraudulent scientists. Opinions on both sides of the debate are so strong that one side barely speaks with the other. The two groups read different newspapers and websites, and immerse themselves in information that reinforces their existing prejudices. So what would happen if you took two assertive people with diametrically opposed opinions on human-induced climate change, put them together for a month and filmed them attempting to change each other's mind?"
Photo credit above: "Politicians are at a significant disadvantage when trying to grasp the seriousness of climate change. Their instinct is to search for compromises and to negotiate outcomes. But nature doesn't compromise." Photo: Jonathan Carroll."
Photo credit above: Robert F. Bukaty/file/Associated Press - FILE - "In this June 13, 2011 file photo, the Energy Tide 2, the largest tidal energy turbine ever deployed in the U.S., appears on a barge in Portland, Maine. The Maine Public Utilities Commission, on Tuesday, April 24, 2012, set contract terms and directed three utilities to negotiate with the company, Ocean Renewable Power Co., to put electricity onto the grid this summer."
