Saturday, December 28, 2013

WNTV Blog for AM Sunday: 50F Temperature Swing in One Day


Nothing Better Than Fresh Ice
Ahh, there's at least one thing I like about Minnesota in winter and that's a good sheet of outdoor ice! I was up early enough to catch the outdoor Zamboni doing it's thing. This was prior to the record 47F high set at the MSP airport!




Blizzard Warnings...
Thanks to the National Weather Service out of Bismark, ND for the compilation of ND DOT cameras from midday Saturday. The images show the initial surge of Arctic air into the Lower 48 with near ground blizzard conditions as 30+mph wind gusts tore through the region.



Here were all the blizzard warnings (in red) that were in place across the Upper Midwest through the weekend as the Arctic front plowed south.



Cold Air Plunges South
WOW! What a front! Take a look at the high temperature from normal map across the nation from Saturday to Sunday. There's a 50F+ temperature swing there in just 1 day!

Highs From Normal Saturday
Look at how warm the central and eastern part of the country was from normal. Some even setting record highs!



Highs From Normal Sunday
You know the cold front is powerful when it can drop temperatures as much as 50F+ in the other direction! Instead of being nearly 25F warmer than average, some spots will be nearly 25F colder than average on Sunday!



High Temperatures Sunday
Actual daytime high temperatures will have a tough time even reaching 0F across parts of the Upper Midwest!



Forecast Lows Sunday Night
If you think that's cold, how about the forecast low temperatures for Sunday night! YIKES!



Waterlogged Eastern U.S.
Take a look at the forecast radar below; note the big blob of moisture that pushed through the Southeast on Saturday and will wrap up over the Northeast on Sunday. The Arctic air mass from the Upper Mississippi Valley will help to bring a wintry mix from the Lower Mississippi Valley to parts of the Northeast on Sunday and Monday.



Tracking the Lows
These are the two storm systems that will be bringing inclement weather to the eastern half of the country through early next week. The southern Gulf low is the one that will bring the heaviest quantities of moisture to the eastern third of the country. Interestingly, it will be mixing with some colder air to the far north, so heavier snow is going to be an issue across parts of the Northern New England States through early next week as well! The northern low skipping across the Great Lakes Region is the low responsible for the Arctic invasion that will be permeating through the eastern part of the country through the New Year!



7am Sunday to 7am Monday



Precipitation Potential
According to NOAA's HPC 2 day precipitation forecast, from 7pm Saturday to 7pm Monday there will be a heavy swath of moisture from parts of the Mid-Atlantic to the Northeast. Some 1" to 2"+ amount can't be ruled out. This could certainly bring a few flooding concerns to the table where heavier rain accumulates. Keep in mind that some of this moisture will also be in the form of snow where colder temperatures exist across the far north.



Winter Storm Watch
The National Weather Service has issued a Winter Storm Watch for parts of the northern New England States for heavy snow potential of 6" to 10" from PM Sunday - AM Monday.



Snow accumulations through early next week look particularly interesting across parts of Maine. However, nuisance to shovelable snow may be possible from parts of the Great Lakes to the New England States during thru early next week.



Space Odyssey
It's not much, but it's kind of cool. It's a picture of the International Space Station as it flew over the National Weather Service office in Charleston, West Virginia



If you're interested in seeing the International Space Station or any other satellite with you're own eye, check out this cool website from SpaceWeather.com - All you have to do it put in your zipcode and it spits out the satellite that may be visible (weather permitting) in your area!

See more HERE:



Speaking of Space...
There were several reports of flashes in the sky and louds rumbles coming from the Upper Midwest on the night of December 27th. The National Weather Service out of Duluth, MN has a nice thread on what some encountered as an apparent meteorite dashed through the sky.

See More HERE:



Meteorite From Iowa
Here's video of a meteorite from Iowa on the 26th of December

Video courtesy Andrey Anisimov - See HERE:



Purchase of the Day?
Not sure why some of us feel the need to have the biggest TV there is, but check this one out! It's an 85" and you can have it for only $40,000 !!

Check out the listing on Amazon HERE:



New Year's Eve Night Temperature Outlook
Here's the temperature outlook for New Year's Eve Night/AM New Year's Day. Note how cold it looks across parts of the Upper Midwest and the Northeast... YIKES!



Here's the apparent temperature forecast for New Year's Eve Night near the time the clock strikes midnight... It looks pretty cold!



Early January Wind Chill Outlook
The extended wind chill outlook looks pretty cold through early January  across much of the eastern part of the nation. According to NOAA, here are lowest wind chills possible from January 2nd - January 6



Antarctic Researchers Trapped
This is an interesting story coming from the bottom of the world, where a group of researchers are trapped in heavy sea ice!

"AN Antarctic rescue mission has suffered a setback after two icebreakers abandoned efforts to free a research ship stranded deep in sea ice.
A group of Australian scientists, explorers and tourists has been stuck on the Russian ship MV Akademik Shokalskiy since Christmas Day.
The ship, with 74 people on board, sent a distress call after becoming trapped in heavy sea ice, which has continued to expand around it over the past three days near Antarctica."

Read the full story from News.com.au HERE:



Thanks for checking in, have a great rest of your weekend and don't forget to follow me on Twitter @TNelsonWNTV

Friday, December 27, 2013

WNTV Headlines for Saturday, December 28th: Another Arcitc Invasion


Deer Crossing of a Different Kind
Being one of the morning meteorologists at WeatherNation, I have always been a little worried about hitting deer a while driving into work . I've had several close calls, but thankfully I have a clean record and have stayed incident free. As I mentioned, I've seen my fair share of deer while night driving, but I can honestly say I've never seen anything like this!

Thanks to the NWS out of Alaska for this fun Facebook post from Christmas Day:

"Alaskans know Santa lives at North Pole, Alaska. But it's unusual for us to get pics of his training flights especially this close to the holiday."

See more HERE:



Severe Alaskan Cold
You think it's cold here, check out some of the low temps reported on December 26th across parts of central Alaska!

...COLDEST TEMPERATURES REPORTED IN THE INTERIOR DECEMBER 26TH
CHICKEN..........................................58 BELOW
TOK..............................................52 BELOW
DONNELLY.........................................50 BELOW
EAGLE............................................50 BELOW
DELTA JUNCTION...................................49 BELOW
FORT YUKON.......................................49 BELOW
NORTH POLE.......................................48 BELOW
CIRCLE HOT SPRINGS...............................42 BELOW
FAIRBANKS INTL AIRPORT...........................41 BELOW

Alaskan Ice Fog
This was the icy view from downtown Fairbanks, Alaska  on December 26th... Man, does that look cold!

(Image courtesy: Fairbanks Daily News-Miner)

See more HERE:



Here's another icy picture from Fairbanks, AK on the 27th. Thanks to Missey Wilt Kohler, who said it was -47F when she snapped the picture!



Coldest of the Cold
It's pretty apparent that from the map below, the coldest of the cold is still locked up in Alaska, but some of that cold is going to get dislodged over the next few days and make it's way into the Lower 48. The image below represents midday temperatures from Friday, December 27th.



Tracking the Arctic Air
Here's how the cold air looks as it slams into the Lower 48 by late weekend/early next week.

Friday, December 27
Note that on Friday, the coldest of the cold was still locked up across the Arctic region, reflecting the coldest of the cold surface temperatures above.



Sunday, December 29
By Sunday, the coldest temperatures still appear to be locked up well to our north, but note the finger of cold air poking down into the Lower 48 by midday Sunday!



High Temperatures Sunday
Here are the forecast highs for Sunday, keep in mind that as the Arctic air settles southward, temperatures will likely fall through much of the day. Highs across parts of the Midwest will likely be reached early in the day.



Highs From Normal Sunday



New Year's Eve Night
Here's a preview of what New Year's Eve night could harbor... It certainly doesn't look 'balmy' for folks in the northeastern quadrant of the nation does it?



Forecast Lows New Year's Eve Night
The good news is that the coldest of the cold still appears to be just north of the international border/Great Lakes region, but for folks heading out to watch the clock strike midnight in the northeastern quadrant of the nation, make sure to bundle up! Also keep in mind that these are just the temperatures, wind chill values will be quite a bit colder than what you see here!



Feels Like Temp New Year's Eve Night
According to the NWS, here are what feels like temps could be on New Year's Eve Night! Note how large of an area could have sub-zero feels like temps then!



Enjoying Warmer Weather
While several folks will be bracing for colder weather over the coming days, there are still several warm spots across the nation. Here are a couple:
Thanks to my friend Sandra Westrum for this picture from near Wabasso, FL where the outdoor thermometer read near 80F earlier this week!



Golfing Weather
Thanks to my mom for her daily 'golf course' picture from Arizona... I'm starting to envy them now for deciding to become snowbirds this winter! Must be rough...



6 to 10 Day Temperature Outlook (Jan 1st - Jan 5th)
According to the NOAA, the 6 to 10 day temperature outlook shows a good chance that the western half of the nation will continue it's warmer than average ways into early January. On the other hand, it appears the eastern half of the nation has a pretty good chance to be MUCH cooler than average into early January.



California Stays Dry

Unfortunately, this warm weather means more 'mostly' dry weather for folks in the west. 2013 in California will likely wind up as one of the driest years/if not the driest on record!
Here's a good write-up from HuffingtonPost.com

"California precipitation has, on average, been declining, from an average of around 23 inches per year to around 21 inches per year -- a nearly 10 percent decline in the past 117 years."

Read more from HuffingtonPost.com HERE:



Here's another look at how dry it has been in California. These are reservoirs across the state, which show significantly low levels compared to the historical average to date.

See the current data from the California Data Exchange Center HERE:



Eastern Rain
While folks in the west stay rather dry, folks in the eastern part of the country will be dealing with another waterlogged storm late this weekend/early next week. The bad news is that this low pressure from the Gulf of Mexico will likely impact travel on Sunday. The good news is that this will be mostly liquid as temperature profiles look warm



Sunday Forecast (1am - 1pm)
Here's the forecast for Sunday, note the big swath of rain from the Gulf Coast to the Northeast during that time. Another low pressure system will skid across the international border this weekend and bring some wintry precip to those areas...



3 Day Precipitation Forecast
NOAA's 3 day precipitation forecast suggests a widespread area of 1" to 2" rainfall amounts from the Gulf Coast to parts of the Northeast through early next week. This could certainly slow weekend travel down quite a bit...



Thanks for checking in and have a great weekend ahead!
Don't forget to check me out on Twitter @TNelsonWNTV

Thursday, December 26, 2013

Sunday Soaking East Coast - Another Polar Invasion Northern USA Next Week


An Improbable Year

On today's weather blog (below) I have a list of the most unusual and improbable Minnesota weather stories of 2013, courtesy of Pete Boulay, at the Minnesota Climatology Working Group. A few of the events that made me do a double-take: an historic snowstorm from May 1-3, an icy Fishing Opener up north, a damaging "wall of ice" whipped up by high winds, a rare August frost over the Arrowhead, followed by the 3rd warmest state fair on record, and only 15 tornadoes statewide. There were no tornadoes in the metro area, but the June 21 "Solstice Storm" whipped up damaging straight-line winds, dropping thousands of trees, sparking widespread power outages.

An odd year, but then again Minnesota's weather is rarely average.

I don't see any big storms brewing close to home between now and the end of next week - good news for New Year's travel plans. If you're heading east expect a soaking rain event Sunday, followed by subzero readings over New England next week as the same brutal airmass pushes east.

Expect a Eureka Moment today & Friday as temperatures soar into the mid-30s(!) followed by a massive Arctic Hangover Sunday, as readings plummet into single digits. Highs struggle to reach zero Monday & Tuesday, but another thaw is brewing for the end of next week.

Hey, the days are getting longer now. Can spring be far behind?

You 'betcha!

Image credits: Upper left: Lake Mille Lacs, May 11, 2013, courtesy of StormChasingVideo.com. Upper Right: "A tree split during the storm and fell at 47th and Oakland in south Minneapolis early Friday, June 21, 2013". Rachel Blount, Star Tribune.

New Year's Eve Preview. In today's edition of Climate Matters we track violent storms slamming into the British Isles, record warmth for southern California, air stagnation in the Bay area (where the dry, sunny rut continues) and glaze ice headaches for much of Lower Michigan in the wake of last weekend's "Solstice Storm". Soaking rains are likely along the eastern seaboard by Sunday, followed by one of the coldest outbreaks of winter for the northern third of the USA next week.

Snowy Headaches Diminish. The 84-hour NAM model from NOAA shows a plowable snowfall downwind of Lakes Erie and Ontario, with heavy snow for northern New England and upstate Maine; otherwise the map shows a lack of major snowfall into the weekend. Map: Ham Weather.

3 PM Friday. Old Man Winter is (temporarily) tiring of flinging subzero airmasses south of the Canadian border. A brief respite is likely into Saturday across the northern tier of the USA; 3 pm temperatures showing readings above freezing south of a line from Hartford to Wilkes Barre, South Bend, the Twi Cities and Bismarck. Map: NOAA and Ham Weather.

A Fleeting Temperature Break - Then Arctic Reality Sets In. Enjoy the next 36 hours, with PM temperatures flirting with freezing over parts of central and southern Minnesota, because (all) guidance shows subzero air hurtling southward again Saturday night into Sunday. NOAA 2-meter temperature guidance: Ham Weather.

Crazy Temperature Swings. After enjoying a thaw Friday and again Saturday temperatures drop as much as 40-45 degrees Sunday into Monday morning. Highs may struggle to reach 0F in the Twin Cites Monday and Tuesday, with as much as 48-60 hours of subzero weather the first half of next week. Any pain will give way to another thaw by the end of next week, based on ECMWF model guidance. Graphic: Weatherspark.

Top weather events for Minnesota for 2013 (in chronological order). Thanks to Pete Boulay at the Minnesota Climatology Working Group for sharing these. For a list of 2012's Top Five Weather Events click here.
A. Record January Precipitable Water in the Twin Cities
http://www.crh.noaa.gov/news/display_cmsstory.php?wfo=mpx&storyid=91567&source=0
B. Southwest Minnesota Ice Storm of April 9-10 http://www.climate.umn.edu/doc/journal/winter_storm_april_9_2013.htm
C. Snowy April in Duluth
http://www.crh.noaa.gov/news/display_cmsstory.php?wfo=dlh&storyid=93989&source=2
D. Historic May Snowstorm May 1-3, 2013
http://www.climate.umn.edu/doc/journal/snow_2013_05_02.htm
E. May 14th Heat Wave
http://www.climate.umn.edu/doc/journal/hot_140513.htm
F. Cold Spring/Late Ice out 2013
http://www.dnr.state.mn.us/ice_out/index.html?year=2013
G. High Wind and Heavy Rain Event of June 21, 2013 http://www.climate.umn.edu/doc/journal/severe130621_22.htm
H. July 18-19 2013 Heavy Rain and Washout on the North Shore http://www.climate.umn.edu/doc/journal/07182013_storm.htm
I. National Night Out Storm of August 6
http://www.climate.umn.edu/doc/journal/08062013_storm.htm
J. 3rd Warmest State Fair on record
http://www.climate.umn.edu/doc/journal/state_fair_weather_2013.htm
K. Lack of Tornadoes in 2013 for Minnesota (only 15, the lowest since 1990) also very low in US
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/wcm/torgraph-big.png

Climate Highlights - November. Here's an excerpt of a look back at November (and all of autumn) across the USA from NOAA: "
  • The November temperature was 41.6°F, 0.3°F below the 20th century average, ranking near the median value in the 119-year period of record.
  • Below-average temperatures were present for a majority of the contiguous U.S. east of the Rockies. Above-average temperatures were present for the Southwest, as well as Florida. No state had November temperatures ranking among the ten warmest or coolest.
  • The nationally-averaged precipitation total during November was 2.01 inches, 0.11 inch below the 20th century average, also ranking near the median value in the 119-year period of record.

86 Days Of U.S. Snowcover In One Minute. Check out the changes since October 1 across America, courtesy of NOAA and Rebel Mouse.

Elevated Fire Risk Bay Area. While polar air invades the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes, spinning up a parade of East Coast storms in the coming days, the West Coast remains unusually quiet, sunny, mild and very dry. California is experiencing the driest year in state history - it's unusual to be tracking wildfires in late December (when storms should be sweeping in off the Pacific). Graphic: National Weather Service.

Do You Have NOAA's mPING App? The more (reliable) data, the better, including storm reports. That's the concept behind NSSL's (National Severe Storm Lab's (free) mPING app. More details here.

Shanghail Warns Children To Stay Indoors On Haze, PM2.5 Surge. The air quality doesn't seem to be improving much across northern China. Here's an excerpt of an story at Bloomberg: "Shanghai warned children and the elderly to stay indoors as smog enveloped China’s commercial hub, sending levels of the worst pollutants surging to more than 15 times World Health Organization guidelines. The level of PM2.5 pollutants reached 395.7 micrograms per cubic meter at 3 p.m., the city’s environmental monitoring center said. The WHO recommends exposure of no more than 25 over a 24-hour period for particles smaller than 2.5 microns in diameter that are more dangerous than other particulate matter..."

Photo credit above: "Tourists wear protective masks while walking at the Bund under heavy haze in Shanghail, China, Thursday, Dec. 26, 2013. Shanghai warned children, the elderly and people suffering from heart or lung disease to stay indoors as smog engulfed the city." (AP Photo/Eugene Hoshiko).

Bimby: Your Own Personal Robotic Kitchen Helper. Not sure if this amazing kitchen contraption is coming to the USA anytime soon, but check out the video, and what Europeans are willing to spend to make their lives a little simpler, courtesy of The Wall Street Journal: "...Bimby, a German-made cooking robot, has become an obsession in Western Europe's poorest country by promising to make cooking cheap and easy. Bimby looks like a food processor with a stainless-steel container and a steaming unit that weighs ingredients, chops, grates, blends, beats, mixes and cooks, all under the control of a timer that lets the cook step away from the kitchen until the food is ready...."

Australia: Sharks Use Twitter To Warn Swimmers. This may be the most innovative (and unnerving) use of Twitter I've seen yet; here's an excerpt and video clip from Sky News: "...Scientists have attached transmitters to more than 320 sharks, including great whites, which monitor their movements up and down the coast. When a tagged shark swims within about a kilometre of a beach, it triggers an alert which is picked up by computer. That computer then instantly turns the shark's signal into a short message on Surf Life Saving Western Australia's (SLSWA) Twitter feed..."



Climate Stories...

Global Warming Is Rapidly Accelerating. OpEdNews.com has the story; here's an excerpt: "...A briefing provided to the failed U.N. Conference of the Parties in Copenhagen in 2009 provided this summary: "The long-term sea level that corresponds to current CO2 concentration is about 23 meters above today's levels, and the temperatures will be 6 degrees C or more higher. These estimates are based on real long-term climate records, not on models." Ocean physicist  Peter Wadhams of Cambridge University  was one of the sources quoted by Jamail, and he says, "The fall-off in ice volume is so fast it is going to bring us to zero very quickly." That's how soon (within less than ten years; he estimates probably less than five years) what had only recently been the 90% reflection of the arctic's sunlight out into space will become instead the 90% absorption of that solar energy.  Oil companies no longer deny what is happening; they are exploring in the arctic, where snow-covered ice, until recently, used to be. As Julian Cox headlined on 2 June 2013,  "Exxon Mobil CEO: We're Going In, Can't Pull Up, Brace For Impact."  Cox's ultimate sources in that news story were the  AP  and the  Houston Chronicle ..."

2013 Arctic Report Card: Arctic Had Sixth Warmest Year On Record In 2012. Here's an excerpt of an update from NOAA's Climate.gov: "According to a new report released today by NOAA and its partners, cooler temperatures in the summer of 2013 across the central Arctic Ocean, Greenland and northern Canada moderated the record sea ice loss and extensive melting that the surface of the Greenland ice sheet experienced last year. Yet there continued to be regional extremes, including record low May snow cover in Eurasia and record high summer temperatures in Alaska. “The Arctic caught a bit of a break in 2013 from the recent string of record-breaking warmth and ice melt of the last decade,” said David M. Kennedy, NOAA’s deputy under secretary for operations, during a press briefing today at the American Geophysical Union annual meeting in San Francisco. “But the relatively cool year in some parts of the Arctic does little to offset the long-term trend of the last 30 years: the Arctic is warming rapidly, becoming greener and experiencing a variety of changes, affecting people, the physical environment, and marine and land ecosystems...”

Graphic credit above: "Temperature anomalies for April-May 2013 compared to the 1981-2010 average." Map by NOAA Climate.gov, based on NCEP Reanalysis data from NOAA ESRL Physical Sciences Division.

Reframing Climate Change: A Public Health-Based Climate Change Framework. Somewhere between alarmism and outright denial, can Americans agree on an approach that focuses on our health? Here's an excerpt from The National Law Review: "...All segments shared the belief that good health is a great blessing. Reframing climate change does not suggest the new framework will immediately engage all members of society. However, a human health framework localizes the issue. It takes it from the abstract and helps people make connections to the issues they already know. This new framework allows people to connect climate change with “already familiar problems such as asthma, allergies, and infectious disease experiences in their communities, while shifting the visualization of the issue away from remote arctic regions, and distant peoples and animals. Essentially, public health brings climate change out from the wild, and into the home..."

Climate Change Fuels Water Scarcity And Hunger. Here's a clip from the German publication, Deutsche Welle: "...As the growing world population's consumption of water increases, fresh water resources are also becoming scarcer due to climate change. Water sources are melting and drying out. Scientists at the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK) have calculated how much of the essential resource the world risks losing to the effects of climate change. To get a clearer picture of such effects, the researchers collected data from five global climate models and 11 global hydrologic models. Their study aims at finding new ways to counter looming water scarcity..."

Photo credit above: "Dr. Alexis Felder, Founder of The Joseph Assignment Global Initiative gives a child in Ghana, Africa her first cup of clean drinking water." (PRNewsFoto/Joseph Assignment Global Initiative)

Utilities Feeling Rooftop Solar Heat Start Fighting Back. Here's a clip from a story at Bloomberg: "...Everyone is on board with getting solar and HECO has now put up a wall,” Walker said. “The only thing we can see is profit motivation.” Spurred by a drop in panel prices, robust government subsidies and a technology that no longer appears experimental to mainstream America, rooftop photovoltaic solar is bursting out everywhere. About 200,000 U.S. homes and businesses added rooftop solar in the past two years alone – about 3 gigawatts of power and enough to replace four or five conventionally-sized coal plants. The U.S. set a single-quarter record with 31,000 residential rooftop installations in the three months through Sept. 30. Solar represented 72 percent of all power added in the U.S. in October..."

Photo credit above: clickgreen.org.

Republicans In Congress Got The Testimony They Wanted To Keep Playing Climate Russian Roulette. The Guardian has the story - here's an excerpt: "...Titley is right that whether we like it or not, climate change is a risk management problem. Those who favor inaction are putting all their chips on the best case scenario, hoping that the most likely and worst case scenarios don't come to fruition. It's akin to driving around in a turbo-charged sports car without purchasing auto or health insurance because one mechanic and one doctor out of 30 said you'll probably be fine. It's quite simply a massive risk management failure. With something as important as the global climate, on which every living being on the planet relies, we should be overly cautious, not impetuous and reckless..."