Limping Into Spring (perils and pitfalls of the freeze-thaw cycle)

Remaining Upright

Worried about tornadoes, floods or other weather maladies? I'd be more concerned about slipping and falling on ice. I've heard from hundreds of older Minnesotans who don't mind the cold or even the snow. But ice? Their biggest fear is falling, breaking a wrist, hip, or worse. The odds of dying from falling on snow and ice in any given year are roughly 1 in 5 million. Reassuring. Yet the primary cause of fatal injuries for Americans 65 and older is falling down, on ice, or just a hard surface - resulting in an epidural hematoma.

More details in the article immediately below the column.

We're deep into the freeze-thaw cycle now, melting snow by day freezing into glaze ice at night. Take it easy out there during the early AM hours.

Another forecast with rare 100% accuracy? Potholes. Water expands as it freezes, creating job security for MnDOT road crews.

If you close one eye and squint a little it may almost look like early spring out there the next few days: 40s, even a shot at 50 Saturday. Play in the snow soon, because half an inch of rain will melt much of the remaining snow in the metro Saturday.

With "concrete frost" in the ground there may even be a little street flooding Saturday - another sign of the times. A chilly wind returns for Easter, but nothing we can't handle.

Upended: The Deadly Odds Of Slipping On Ice. Here's an excerpt of a relevant article from Book of Odds, focused on the risk of death from slipping on ice (or any hard surface): "... The odds of dying from a fall on ice or snow in a year are 1 in 4,908,000. The US population hovers around 304,000,000, which means roughly 60 people die from slipping on ice or snow every year. But wintry conditions are only involved in about 10% of deaths stemming from an accidental tumble. The overall odds a person will die from an accidental fall in a year are 1 in 435,800. According to the American Association of Neurological Surgeons (AANS), accidental falls are the leading cause of non-fatal injuries in the US, and the primary cause of fatal injuries for Americans 65 and older. Most injuries come from striking a hard floor..."

Faint Whiffs of Spring. The ECMWF (European) model shows highs near 50 Good Friday and Saturday, again Thursday of next week. A cold wind kicks in Easter Sunday and Monday will feel more like late February, but temperatures quickly recover by the middle of next week - the sun angle is too high in the sky for chilly weather to linger for long as we sail into April. The model prints out about a third of an inch of (all) rain on Saturday. Wave goodbye to the glacier in your yard - by Sunday we'll probably have 1-2" snow on the ground (officially at MSP).

A Change Of Pace. Here's another sign of spring - no snow with this next system (although a few flurries can't be ruled out Easter Sunday, especially up north). U.S. (NOAA) models print out anywhere from .25 to .45" rain on Saturday. Graphic: Iowa State.

Baroclinicity. One advantage of a large north-south temperature contrast across the USA? Greater potential to spin up storms, capable of pumping Gulf moisture northward across the Plains into the Upper Midwest. NOAA's NAM model shows a streak of rain arriving Monday; the lowest mile of the atmosphere warm enough for all liquid precipitation.

Cautious Optimism. No more subzero relapses are brewing. We'll see more cold fronts, no question about that, but long-range GFS model data shows highs near 50 again the first weekend of April, again around April 11-12. A reason to go on living...

Extreme Weather: The New Normal? Here's a clip of a terrific article from my friend, Bob Ryan, at WJLA-TV in Washington D.C.: "Is the weather really going to extremes, or are we just more aware or hear more about “extreme weather” on the news and in blogs?  Well, March 2013 has sure been an extreme change from March 2012. March 2012, the warmest March on record here in Washington and across the United States, at the same time across the globe March 2012 was the coolest since 1999...."

Graphic above: Climate Central.

 

 

Experimental Tornado Warnings Extended Into 12 Additional States In April (Including Minnesota). The National Weather Service will be using more urgent language this year when tornado warnings are issued, especially when there is a large, confirmed tornado on the ground near a heavily-populated area. Details from NOAA: "...The project gives forecasters three-tiered tornado warning options:

• When a tornado is possible based on radar data, the warning will include a bulleted list that clearly communicates hazards and impacts. This is the most common type of warning.

• When there is substantial evidence of a large and dangerous tornado, the warning will include the phrase, “This is a particularly dangerous situation,” to identify a high threat level, describe expected damage and promote urgency to seek immediate shelter. A damage threat tag of “considerable” will be embedded in the warning.

• When a known, potentially violent tornado is likely to produce devastating damage, the warning will announce a “Tornado Emergency” and direct the public to seek shelter immediately. A damage threat tag of “catastrophic” will be embedded in the warning. This is the highest level of tornado warning and will be reserved for rare cases like the deadly EF-5 that struck Joplin in 2011.

The Joplin tornado, which killed more than 160 people on May 22, 2011, inspired the development of this project after a National Weather Service assessment team found that many victims spent precious time verifying the twister, making it too late to seek shelter. The team also found that some people living in tornado-prone areas may be desensitized to warnings. States in the Impact Based Warnings project area include Colorado, Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, Kentucky, Michigan, Minnesota, Missouri, Nebraska, North Dakota, South Dakota, Wisconsin and Wyoming. The project covers a large section of the most tornado-prone part of the country...."

Photo credit above: West Liberty, Kentucky, courtesy of Kent Nickell.

Scientists Link Frozen Spring To Dramatic Arctic Sea Ice Loss. Following up on what I mentioned in today's column, here are more details on how record Arctic sea ice loss last September may be impacting prevailing winds over the Northern Hemisphere. Proving cause and effect with the atmosphere is difficult, but there is a growing body of evidence suggesting linkage. Here are more details from The Guardian: "...According to Francis and a growing body of other researchers, the Arctic ice loss adds heat to the ocean and atmosphere which shifts the position of the jet stream – the high-altitude river of air that steers storm systems and governs most weather in northern hemisphere. "This is what is affecting the jet stream and leading to the extreme weather we are seeing in mid-latitudes," she said. "It allows the cold air from the Arctic to plunge much further south. The pattern can be slow to change because the [southern] wave of the jet stream is getting bigger. It's now at a near record position, so whatever weather you have now is going to stick around," she said..."

Photo credit above: "Arctic ice loss adds heat to the ocean and atmosphere which shifts the position of the jet stream, which affects weather in the northern hemisphere." Photograph: Owen Humphreys/PA.

No Caption Required. A friend in Atlanta passed this on to me late last night (rubbing it in a little?) A little more than a year ago there was no snow on the ground statewide, not even way up north. 60s and 70s for a few weeks will do that. This year? 30" on the ground over parts of north central and northeastern Minnesota. Maps courtesy of the MN DNR and State Climate Office.

Cautious Optimism. The latest NOAA CPC Outlook shows a higher probability of improvement in drought conditions from the Dakotas and Minnesota into western Wisconsin. Even the Central Plains may see some easing to the worst drought since the 1950s.

How The Internet Is Making Us Poor. Is "software eating the world"? How many information-related jobs will be replaced by software, automation and even robotics in the years to come. Will we be competing with other people for jobs, or machines? Here's an excerpt of a thought-provoking story at Quartz: "Everyone knows the story of how robots replaced humans on the factory floor. But in the broader sweep of automation versus labor, a trend with far greater significance for the middle class—in rich countries, at any rate—has been relatively overlooked: the replacement of knowledge workers with software. One reason for the neglect is that this trend is at most thirty years old, and has become apparent in economic data only in perhaps the past ten years. The first all-in-one commercial microprocessor went on sale in 1971, and like all inventions, it took decades for it to become an ecosystem of technologies pervasive and powerful enough to have a measurable impact on the way we work..."

Photo credit above: "Librarians are being replaced by vast systems for automatically storing books—but it's Wikipedia and the internet that are the real threat." AP/Uncredited

 

Full Moon. Thanks to Steve Burns, who snapped this remarkable shot last night from Theodore Wirth Park. Great work!


Climate Stories....

New Video: Hunters, Anglers And Climate Change. Here's a video and excerpt from Climate Denial Crock of the Week: "Todd Tanner has an offer for you. Convince him that climate change is not real, and he’ll give you his gun.

Field and Stream: The Conservation Hawks is a new group dedicated to harnessing the power of sportsmen to address climate change. Stop. Before you give in to anger, or to the “conservation fatigue” that can fall upon us like a giant wet carpet whenever climate change is mentioned, consider this: If you can convince Conservation Hawks chairman Todd Tanner that he’s wasting his time, that he does not have to worry about climate change, he will present to you his most prized possession: A Beretta Silver Pigeon 12 gauge over/under that was a gift from his wife, and has been a faithful companion on many a Montana bird hunt. I know the gun, and I’ve hunted and fished with Todd for years. He’s not kidding. You convince him, he’ll give you the gun..."

How To Abuse Statistics: Claim Global Warming Stopped In 1998. My friend, Dr. Jeff Masters at Wunderground, has a great post on a common denier theme making the rounds these days, the result of cherry-picking data. Here's an excerpt: "One often hears the statement in the media that global warming stopped in 1998, or that there has been no global warming for the past 16 years. Why pick 16 years? Why not some nice round number like 20 years? Or better yet, 30 years, since the climate is generally defined as the average weather experienced over a period of 30 years or longer? Temperatures at Earth's surface undergo natural, decades-long warming and cooling trends, related to the La Niña/El Niño cycle and the 11-year sunspot cycle. The reason one often hears the year 1998 used as a base year to measure global temperature trends is that this is a cherry-picked year. An extraordinarily powerful El Niño event that was the strongest on record brought about a temporary increase in surface ocean temperatures over a vast area of the tropical Pacific that year, helping boost global surface temperatures to the highest levels on record (global temperatures were warmer in both 2005 and 2010, but not by much.) But in the years from 2005 - 2012, La Niña events have been present for at least a portion of every single year, helping keep Earth's surface relatively cool. Thus, if one draws a straight-line fit of global surface temperatures from 1998 to 2012, a climate trend showing little global warming results. If one picks any year prior to 1998, or almost any year after 1998, a global warming trend does result. The choice of 1998 is a deliberate abuse of statistics in an attempt to manipulate people into drawing a false conclusion on global temperature trends..."

Graphic above: Skeptical Science.

Keeping The Cork In The Oil Sands Bottle. Here's a snippet from a story at Planet 3.0: "Are the bitumen deposits in NE Alberta the biggest carbon bomb on the planet or will their exploitation have hardly any effect on the climate? Will the Keystone XL (KXL) pipeline accelerate development of the oil sands or will it make little difference? I have attempted to answer the first question previously in a Skeptical Science post that discussed the 2012 Nature Climate Change article by Neil Swart and Andrew Weaver. The oil sands, even in the worst case (assuming constant production rates of coal, gas and conventional oil, with accelerated bitumen production), will only contribute a small proportion, about 3%, to fossil-fuel emissions over this century. However, when framed in terms of the steps we need to make to stabilize the climate, the oil sands loom larger, comparable in size to one of the Princeton wedges. In this view, exploiting the oil sands would be like taking a stride closer to the brink, whereas prudence requires us instead to take several steps back..."

Opinion: Life As A Target. Penn State climate scientist Michael Mann has become a target of climate change deniers, many funded by fossil fuel interests. He's the researcher who first published the "hockey stick", showing a sharp, upward spike in temperature - and he has the arrows in his back to prove it. Here's an excerpt from TheScientist: "...Meanwhile, I’ve also been subject to a constant onslaught of character attacks and smears on websites, in op-eds, and on right-leaning news outlets, usually by front groups or individuals tied to fossil fuel interests like ExxonMobil or the petrochemical tycoons, the Koch Brothers. As the journal Nature put it a March 2010 editorial, climate researchers are in a street fight with those who seek to discredit the accepted scientific evidence simply because it is inconvenient for some who are profiting from fossil fuel use. But being the focus of such attacks has a silver lining: I’ve become an accidental public figure in the debate over human-caused climate change. Reluctant at first, I have come to embrace this role, choosing to use my position in the public eye to inform the discourse surrounding the issue of climate change..."

Photo credit above: "Michael Mann testifying before Congress, with National Academies of Science Chair Ralph Cicerone (July 27, 2006)." National Academy of Sciences.

Maximum Arctic Sea Ice Reached: 6th Lowest On Record. The National Snow and Ice Data Center has more details: "On March 15, 2013, Arctic sea ice extent appears to have reached its annual maximum extent, marking the beginning of the sea ice melt season. This year’s maximum extent was the sixth lowest in the satellite record. NSIDC will release a detailed analysis of the 2012 to 2013 winter sea ice conditions in early April..."

Scientists Predict Increasing Storm Intensity. Voice of America has the story; here's the intro: "If history is any guide, a new study predicts the intensity of hurricanes along the southeastern coast of the United States may increase because of rising global temperatures. Climatologists also expect that storm activity in the western Pacific will be greatly affected by global warming during this century. Analyzing data from 1923 to the present, the statistical model by an international team of researchers predicts there may be a dramatic rise - anywhere from a two- to seven-fold increase - in the number of Katrina-magnitude hurricanes along the Atlantic coast of the United States.  Katrina, a Category 5 storm, devastated New Orleans, Louisiana, in August of 2005.  The study was published in Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences..."

Photo credit above: "A man stands in front of an uprooted oak tree on Louisiana Avenue as Hurricane Isaac makes land fall in New Orleans, Louisiana, August 29, 2012." Courtesy: Reuters.

Real Pragmatism For Real Climate Change: Interview With Dr. John Abraham. Here is a snippet of an interview with St. Thomas University climate scientist John Abraham at oilprice.com:
"First, the main message is:

1.      Humans are causing climate change, we’ve know that for well over 100 years
2.      We can do something about it now, with today’s technology
3.      If we make smart decisions, not only will we help the climate, we will create jobs, improve national security, and diversify our energy supply
4.      Doing nothing about the problem is a choice, with tremendous costs

Now, you are right, what should be a scientific issue has become a political issue. There are a number of reasons for that. It is clear that a lot of money is spent by organizations that want to ensure we do not invest in clean renewable energy or conservation. But that isn’t the entire story.  A major indicator of how people feel about climate science is how they view collective action.  Persons who think working together on a shared problem (like energy and climate) can lead to exciting and profitable solutions are much more likely to accept the science. People who reject collective action or government intervention are much less likely to accept the science. The real tragedy is that many people in this latter category could develop the technologies to lead us into the energy future; instead they have held our country back. We are now at a technological disadvantage and every year we delay taking action increases the future costs to ourselves and our children..."

How Global Warming Is Making Allergies Worse. Here's an excerpt from foxreno.com: "...Researchers say global warming is leading to larger plants, earlier and more robust pollination and, as a result, worsening allergies. “With the combination of increased temperature and carbon dioxide, we are seeing a dramatic change, and allergy sufferers can probably feel that change,” said Richard Weber, MD, an allergist at National Jewish Health in Denver, and president of the American College of Allergy, Asthma & Immunology.... In the United States, ragweed pollen season has been extended 13 to 27 days; and short ragweed pollen has shown increases in both biomass and pollen production of between 61 and 90 percent.  “Pollen counts are going up, and in some cases, dramatically so,” said Weber...." (Image credit: Red Orbit).

Climate Change Impacting Worldwide Wine Production. Uh oh, wine may be affected by a warming atmosphere? Some of us are sitting up a little straighter in our chairs. Rawstory.com has the story; here's an excerpt: "It’s circa 2050 and shoppers are stopping off at Ikea to buy fine wine made in Sweden. A Nordic fantasy? Not according to climate experts who say the Earth’s warming phase is already driving a wave of change through the world of wine. As new frontiers for grape growing open up, the viability of some traditional production areas is under threat from scorching temperatures and prolonged droughts..."

If You Thought 2012 Was Hot, Just Wait A Few Years. Climate Central has the story; here's the intro: "It’s already March, but the country is still recovering from last year’s extreme weather and climate events. As the hottest year on record in the U.S., 2012 brought intense drought across the Midwest and Great Plains, record wildfires in the West, and Hurricane Sandy’s path of destruction to the East Coast. But if you thought 2012 was hot, just wait a few years. Within the coming decades, years like 2012 may become simply “average.” And if we keep emitting CO2 at the current rate, it won’t be long before years like 2012 feel cold. Average U.S. temperatures are already warmer than they used to be. The 2000s were hotter than the 1990s, and the 1990s were hotter than the 1980s. What’s happening in the U.S. looks like an enhanced version of the global trend, possibly helped by the effects of some natural variations..."

A Reluctant Spring For Northern USA (NOAA predicts easing of drought over much of central USA by late spring)

Meteo-therapist

"Paul, stop me before I hurl myself into the small glacier forming in my front yard!" If anyone asks we've gone 114 days in a row without a 50-degree high. Nearly a third of the year. Some of us are losing our stoic sense of humor.

Yes, the groundhog lied. But how was he to know the polar vortex would break down? High level winds at northern latitudes have weakened dramatically, pumping warm air into eastern Canada and Greenland. Meanwhile, a persistent dome of numbing air centered over Hudson Bay continues to fling chilly fronts south of the border.

The weather maps are stuck, and have been for nearly a month. Unusual for March, when the pattern is more variable & volatile, with frequent swings of the jet stream.

Why? Some scientists suspect record melting of Arctic ice may be a factor. Maybe it's just cosmic payback for last March's 70s and 80s.

Spring has been delayed, but it's still coming. 40s will feel surprisingly good later this week - a few rain showers Saturday, but no steady or heavy rain that might spark sudden melting and flooding.

I still believe this dramatic shift in the weather from early 2012 bodes well for Minnesota's drought easing by early summer. Stay tuned.

Scientists Link Frozen Spring To Dramatic Arctic Sea Ice Loss. Following up on what I mentioned in today's column, here are more details on how record Arctic sea ice loss last September may be impacting prevailing winds over the Northern Hemisphere. Proving cause and effect with the atmosphere is difficult, but there is a growing body of evidence suggesting linkage. Here are more details from The Guardian: "...According to Francis and a growing body of other researchers, the Arctic ice loss adds heat to the ocean and atmosphere which shifts the position of the jet stream – the high-altitude river of air that steers storm systems and governs most weather in northern hemisphere. "This is what is affecting the jet stream and leading to the extreme weather we are seeing in mid-latitudes," she said. "It allows the cold air from the Arctic to plunge much further south. The pattern can be slow to change because the [southern] wave of the jet stream is getting bigger. It's now at a near record position, so whatever weather you have now is going to stick around," she said..."

Photo credit above: "Arctic ice loss adds heat to the ocean and atmosphere which shifts the position of the jet stream, which affects weather in the northern hemisphere." Photograph: Owen Humphreys/PA.

Touch of Spring. O.K. Daffodils won't be sprouting in your yard anytime soon, but 50 isn't entirely out of the question by Saturday, based on the latest ECMWF guidance (above). Highs reach 40 today, mid 40s Thursday, maybe upper 40s to near 50 Friday and Saturday, followed by a cooling trend early next week.

Hope Springs Eternal. The GFS is fairly optimistic that we'll see highs near 50 the first and second week of April. Big swings in temperature, which may help to spin up a few formidable storms in the weeks ahead. Let's hope we don't see 50s and heavy rain in the next 2-3 weeks, or we'll be looking at river flooding, especially Red River Valley.

No Caption Required. A friend in Atlanta passed this on to me late last night (rubbing it in a little?) A little more than a year ago there was no snow on the ground statewide, not even way up north. 60s and 70s for a few weeks will do that. This year? 30" on the ground over parts of north central and northeastern Minnesota. Maps courtesy of the MN DNR and State Climate Office.

Cautious Optimism. The latest NOAA CPC Outlook shows a higher probability of improvement in drought conditions from the Dakotas and Minnesota into western Wisconsin. Even the Central Plains may see some easing to the worst drought since the 1950s.

Manitoba Forsees Moderate To Major Flood Potential. Canada's CBC has the story; here's a clip: "Province of Manitoba officials released their spring flood forecast Tuesday, increasing their forecast to call for a moderate to major risk of flooding along a number of provincial waterways. The forecast said there is an increased risk of flooding along the Red, Souris, Pembina, Saskatchewan, Qu’Appelle and Assiniboine rivers and in the Interlake area. Provincial flood forecaster Phillip Mutulu said a heavy March snowfall and an above-average snowpack with a high water content contributed to the elevated risk..."

FEMA Mandatory Flood Insurance "Not Effective", Report Says. Environmental Leader has the story; here's an excerpt: "The Federal Emergency Management Agency should not extend its mandatory flood insurance program to areas without levees and needs a more modern approach to analyzing and managing flood risk behind levees, says a report from the National Research Council. The report says purchasing flood insurance is an effective way for property owners behind levees to deal with financial risk from floods. But at this time there is no reason to extend the mandatory purchase requirement — which requires commercial and residential property owners with a federally backed mortgage located in the 100-year floodplain to purchase flood insurance — to areas behind accredited levees..."

D.C. Snow No-Show A Lesson In Forecasting Uncertainty. One note: the European (ECWMF) model did a pretty good job predicting a lack of snow for the immediate D.C. area earlier this month, while most U.S. models printed out a pile of snow for the nation's capital. It was a tough forecast, and the Herald-Review has a good story focusing on the limits of meteorology, in spite of supercomputers, Doppler and weather satellites. Yes, we will continue to bust the forecast, no matter how good the technology gets: "The storm known to many as " Snowquester " appeared for a time like it would be one of modern meteorology's shining moments, in which early warnings saved the government and millions of people time, money, and exposure to dangerous weather conditions. Instead, it turned into every weather forecaster's worst nightmare - a bust of a forecast for a heavily populated and politically influential region, in which the predicted 5 to 10 inches of snow for Washington, D.C. and Baltimore actually yielded just 0.2 inches of slop. In anticipation of the storm, the government shut down Wednesday, keeping federal workers - well, the ones who had not yet been furloughed by across-the-board budget cuts known as the sequester, at least - off the roads. Schools were closed, appointments were cancelled or rescheduled - yet all of those disruptions, and more, turned out to be for nothing, more like a snow drill. The failure to accurately predict the storm in the I-95 corridor offers lessons in communicating risk and uncertainty, which can be applied to both weather and climate forecasting..."

My Gucci Addiction. I know this is no laughing matter, but this article at GQ did make me chuckle (a little). I feel the same about Marshall's Rack. Here's the intro: "In the past few years, I've bought eighty-one leather jackets. Dozens of boots and leather gloves. I've purchased pants that cost $5,000. I own a $22,000 coat. This winter I took a tour of Milan's Fashion Week (all expenses paid by Gucci, in appreciation of my many, many purchases), where I spent tens of thousands more and began to seriously grapple, once and for all, with a compulsion that could cost me more than just my life savings. My name is Buzz Bissinger. I am 58 years old, the best-selling author of 'Friday Night Lights,' father of three, husband. And I am a shopaholic..."

2,000 Years Of Partying: The Brief History And Economics Of Spring Break. Speaking of a good laugh, this article at The Atlantic is a worthy read. Here's an excerpt: "Like Western democracy, Socratic philosophy, written histories, epic poetry, and every other foundational pillar of high culture, spring break began in ancient Greece.  Called "Anthestreria" by the local teens, and their parents, it was a festival dedicated to Dionysus, the god of wine and whoopee and just about every excuse to party. For three days, people would dance, singers would perform, women would deck themselves with flowers, and Greek men would compete to see who could be the fastest to drain a cup of red wine. Two thousand years later, practically nothing has changed except our taste in chugging alcohol..." (Photo: Reuters).

Climate Stories....

Maximum Arctic Sea Ice Reached: 6th Lowest On Record. The National Snow and Ice Data Center has more details: "On March 15, 2013, Arctic sea ice extent appears to have reached its annual maximum extent, marking the beginning of the sea ice melt season. This year’s maximum extent was the sixth lowest in the satellite record. NSIDC will release a detailed analysis of the 2012 to 2013 winter sea ice conditions in early April..."

Scientists Predict Increasing Storm Intensity. Voice of America has the story; here's the intro: "If history is any guide, a new study predicts the intensity of hurricanes along the southeastern coast of the United States may increase because of rising global temperatures. Climatologists also expect that storm activity in the western Pacific will be greatly affected by global warming during this century. Analyzing data from 1923 to the present, the statistical model by an international team of researchers predicts there may be a dramatic rise - anywhere from a two- to seven-fold increase - in the number of Katrina-magnitude hurricanes along the Atlantic coast of the United States.  Katrina, a Category 5 storm, devastated New Orleans, Louisiana, in August of 2005.  The study was published in Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences..."

Photo credit above: "A man stands in front of an uprooted oak tree on Louisiana Avenue as Hurricane Isaac makes land fall in New Orleans, Louisiana, August 29, 2012." Courtesy: Reuters.

Real Pragmatism For Real Climate Change: Interview With Dr. John Abraham. Here is a snippet of an interview with St. Thomas University climate scientist John Abraham at oilprice.com:
"First, the main message is:

1.      Humans are causing climate change, we’ve know that for well over 100 years
2.      We can do something about it now, with today’s technology
3.      If we make smart decisions, not only will we help the climate, we will create jobs, improve national security, and diversify our energy supply
4.      Doing nothing about the problem is a choice, with tremendous costs

Now, you are right, what should be a scientific issue has become a political issue. There are a number of reasons for that. It is clear that a lot of money is spent by organizations that want to ensure we do not invest in clean renewable energy or conservation. But that isn’t the entire story.  A major indicator of how people feel about climate science is how they view collective action.  Persons who think working together on a shared problem (like energy and climate) can lead to exciting and profitable solutions are much more likely to accept the science. People who reject collective action or government intervention are much less likely to accept the science. The real tragedy is that many people in this latter category could develop the technologies to lead us into the energy future; instead they have held our country back. We are now at a technological disadvantage and every year we delay taking action increases the future costs to ourselves and our children..."

How Global Warming Is Making Allergies Worse. Here's an excerpt from foxreno.com: "...Researchers say global warming is leading to larger plants, earlier and more robust pollination and, as a result, worsening allergies. “With the combination of increased temperature and carbon dioxide, we are seeing a dramatic change, and allergy sufferers can probably feel that change,” said Richard Weber, MD, an allergist at National Jewish Health in Denver, and president of the American College of Allergy, Asthma & Immunology.... In the United States, ragweed pollen season has been extended 13 to 27 days; and short ragweed pollen has shown increases in both biomass and pollen production of between 61 and 90 percent.  “Pollen counts are going up, and in some cases, dramatically so,” said Weber...." (Image credit: Red Orbit).

Climate Change Impacting Worldwide Wine Production. Uh oh, wine may be affected by a warming atmosphere? Some of us are sitting up a little straighter in our chairs. Rawstory.com has the story; here's an excerpt: "It’s circa 2050 and shoppers are stopping off at Ikea to buy fine wine made in Sweden. A Nordic fantasy? Not according to climate experts who say the Earth’s warming phase is already driving a wave of change through the world of wine. As new frontiers for grape growing open up, the viability of some traditional production areas is under threat from scorching temperatures and prolonged droughts..."

If You Thought 2012 Was Hot, Just Wait A Few Years. Climate Central has the story; here's the intro: "It’s already March, but the country is still recovering from last year’s extreme weather and climate events. As the hottest year on record in the U.S., 2012 brought intense drought across the Midwest and Great Plains, record wildfires in the West, and Hurricane Sandy’s path of destruction to the East Coast. But if you thought 2012 was hot, just wait a few years. Within the coming decades, years like 2012 may become simply “average.” And if we keep emitting CO2 at the current rate, it won’t be long before years like 2012 feel cold. Average U.S. temperatures are already warmer than they used to be. The 2000s were hotter than the 1990s, and the 1990s were hotter than the 1980s. What’s happening in the U.S. looks like an enhanced version of the global trend, possibly helped by the effects of some natural variations..."

Limping Into Spring (rain-snow mix pushes into the Northeast)

 

Old Fashioned March

Yes, we're all sick and tired of hibernating. Winter came late, and it came hard - a far cry from last year's Memphis-like conditions. So far: one 40-degree high in March.

According to Michael Griesinger at NOAA the Twin Cities have averaged 17 days at or above 40F in March since 1980. This will be the first March since 2002 with fewer than 10 days of 40+.

Last year freakishly strong west winds aloft swept mild, Pacific air into Minnesota. By late March flowers were blooming, ice off many lakes. Instant May. This year prevailing jet stream winds are unusually light. No warm winds from Seattle & Vancouver - allowing Canadian air to linger week after chilling week.

A quiet week is shaping up; highs top 40 by Thursday or Friday. The normally reliable European model is hinting at 50F with scattered T-showers a week from tomorrow.

Let's hope for a gradual thaw in coming weeks. Sudden warmth, coupled with rain, could unleash the 3-6 inches of water in the snow pack up north. NOAA says a "concrete frost" over southern Minnesota (saturated, frozen ground near the surface) means rain or melting snow will immediately run off, much like it does on concrete. What a strange pattern.

* photo above courtesy of Tom Purdy.

40 Degree Highs In March. Here's a portion of an e-mail from Michael Griesinger at NOAA: "The record for FEWEST number of days with highs greater than or equal to 40 is 0 from 1899 and 1965.  At the other end of the spectrum, the record for the GREATEST number of days in March with highs greater than or equal to 40 was 31 (that would be everyday for those keeping score at home!), which occurred in 1878.  Incidentally, the winter of 1877-1878 was known locally as the year without a winter and the 1877-78 winter still holds the record for the warmest ever (based on mean temp) in the Twin Cities!  

The interesting tidbit to me though that came from this stat is that this will be the first March since 2002 where the number of days in March with a high of 40 or more will be less than 10!  From 1873-2012, the Twin Cities has averaged 13.6 days in March with a high of 40 or more, though this number goes up to 17 if you only look at 1980-2012.  Based on our 1980-2010 averages, the average high hits 40 on the 13th...so there are 19 days (13th-31st) where the average high is 40 or more.  

Of the 139 March's between 1873 and 2012, 37 years have had fewer than 10 days with a high of 40 or more in March (27% of all years).  However, only 3 of these 37 March's have happened since 1980!  That would be just 3 out of 33 years since 1980 (84, 01, 02), or 9%! The other 34 years all came from 1975 and earlier.  Needless to say, based on recent history, what we have seen for cool temps this March has been very rare, though this type of March was more common from the 1870s through the 1970s (32% of March's from 1873-1979 had fewer than ten 40 degree highs)!"

Slow Moderation. I wouldn't exactly call it a warm front, but temperatures trend slightly milder, reaching the 40s for highs by late week and next weekend, much closer to average for late April. Temperatures aloft should be warm enough for light rain showers Saturday, again Tuesday of next week, according to ECMWF (European) model data.

Another Nor'easter, Then Quiet. Heavy wet snow pushes into portions of the Mid Atlantic Region today, although I expect more rain than snow from New York City to Washington D.C. Behind the storm a fresh surge of dry, chilly air - a week of relatively quiet weather from coast to coast. NAM model above: NOAA.

March-uary. The calendar says March 25, but the latest snowcover map looks like something out of late January; more than 16-24" on the ground over much of central and northern Minnesota. Map courtesy of Ham Weather.

Elevated Risk Of Flooding Due To "Concrete Frost". To be honest, this is the first time I've heard this expression. The Twin Cities office of The National Weather Service has more details: "With the snowfall in February, conditions have changed from below normal with the January Outlooks to a Normal Risk of Flooding with the February Outlooks for locations including:

* Montevideo on the Minnesota River
* Granite Falls on the Minnesota River
* Redwood Falls on the Redwood River
* New Ulm on the Cottonwood River
* Long Prairie on the Long Prairie River
* St. Cloud on the Sauk River
* St. Cloud on the Mississippi River

While severe to extreme drought conditions still exist across the region, precipitation from December 2012 through the first part of March has been near normal to even above normal in some areas. Hence, some regions do have a decent snow pack with water equivalents of 3-5". The graphic (above) shows the amount of water in the snow pack on March 6, 2013.


In addition to the more common river flood threat, this winter parts of Minnesota and Wisconsin have concrete frost. Concrete Frost is when the top layer of soil becomes saturated and is solidly froszen. Until it thaws and allows moisture to travel through the soil, any rain/snow melt will run off similar to how it does on concrete. The image below shows the areas of concern for Concrete Frost and potential quick response flooding."

* A worst-case scenario for flooding would be a rapid rise in temperature accompanied by heavy rain. This would create massive melting of snow and possible flash flooding. The extended outlook calls for mostly 30s and 40s for highs into the first week of April. With any luck we'll have a nice, gradual, slow-motion thaw.

* The NWS will release their next flood outlook on March 29.

The Winter The Polar Vortex Collapsed. I've noticed an unusually weak polar vortex in recent months, and this article from The Daily Kos confirms what I'm seeing. It may be counterintuitive, but our unusually cold and snowy March may be the result of record ice melt in the Arctic, and how that's impacting prevailing jet stream winds aloft. Here's an excerpt: "...One measure of how contorted the jet stream has become is by measuring the difference in pressure between the Icelandic Low and the Azores High. There are two indices used to do this--one called the Arctic Oscillation (AO), which treats the flow over the entire Northern Hemisphere, and another called the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), which is more focused on the North Atlantic. The two are closely related about 90% of the time. When these indices are strongly negative, the pressure difference between the Icelandic Low and the Azores High is low. This results in a weaker jet stream, allowing it to take large, meandering loops, letting cold air to spill far to the south from the Arctic into the mid-latitudes. The AO index hit -5.2 today (March 20). This is the second most extreme March value of the index since record keeping began in 1948; only an AO value of -6.3 in March 1970 was more extreme."

Arctic Oscillation. To make a long weather story mercifully short, the more negative the AO (Arctic Oscillation) the lighter the prevailing westerly winds are blowing at high latitudes. Weaker wind speeds increase the potential for bitter air to push south into the USA, which is exactly what's been happening this month. When will we crawl out of this cold rut?

AO Prediction. NOAA shows the Arctic Oscillation becoming (less) negative in the next 10 days, which should mean stronger west to east jet stream winds and a gradual moderation in temperatures. Yes, 40s will be a dream come true huh?

Latest from Alerts Broadcaster:

* As we predicted Saturday, the probability of significant snow in New York City remains low - the most reliable weather models show temperatures 1-2 F. too warm for a major snowfall in the city. It'll be a close call, but there's simply too much warm air for a big pile of slush.
* A cold rain spreads into New York City tomorrow, possibly ending as a little slush in the suburbs Monday evening - but air temperatures above 32 F. should keep most roads wet. The brunt of the storm's precipitation/winds should pass just south/east of NYC tomorrow and Monday night.
* Some models print out as much as 4-6" of slushy snow for south Jersey, but I suspect the heaviest snows will remain over western and central Pennsylvania, western Maryland, and the hills of western Virginia and West Virginia. Philadelphia may pick up 1" of slush, maybe a couple inches of snow for the western suburbs of Washington D.C.

Predicted Snowfall. Some of the U.S. weather models print out 1-3" snow for New York City, with some 6"+ amounts for southern New Jersey and the Delaware Valley. I'm skeptical, because the ECMWF (European), the model that performed best for Sandy last year and the slush-storm in early March shows just enough warm air in the lowest mile of the atmosphere for mostly rain from New York City to Philadelphia and Washington D.C. Wet snow may mix in by late afternoon or evening tomorrow, but with surface temperatures just above 32 F. snow will be slow to accumulate, especially east of I-95. As much as 10" of snow may pile up over western Virginia and the Indianapolis area.

On Edge. The forecast is rarely black or white, but usually some nebulous shade of gray. So it goes with tomorrow's coastal storm. The map above shows precipitation and surface temperatures at 1 pm tomorrow, the heaviest (rain) pushing off the Delmarva coast, with a cold rain spreading into the boroughs of New York City. Air temperatures in NYC should be in the mid to upper 30s, a couple degrees too warm for all snow. The 32 F. temperature line (isotherm) extends from near Hartford to Scranton.

Continuity. We look for agreement between the (scores) of weather models from run to run, with a slight bias toward the European model, which consistently outperforms the U.S. simulations. Unlike NOAA, which runs scores of models, the Europeans focus their time, money and computational resources on one model, the ECMWF, and they can initialize the models with new data as it becomes available - the rough equivalent of fueling a 747 in flight. The model above is the 12km. RPM model, which also shows a lack of significant snow for New York City and New Jersey, a plowable couple of inches from Harrisburg and York into the western suburbs of Baltimore and Washington D.C. I'm not convinced D.C. will see heavy snow from tomorrow's system, but my confidence level is high that western Virginia, western Maryland and West Virginia will get plastered with slushy snow, capable of sparking sporadic power outages and impacting facilities.

Latest Advisories. NOAA has issued a Winter Weather Advisory for the New York City area (including Long Island) with Winter Storm Warnings for south Jersey and the Pittsburgh area. Western Pennsylvania will see enough snow to shovel and plow, but I'm not convinced the Delaware Valley and south Jersey will see heavy snow. Worst case: 1-2" slush for New York City's suburbs at the tail-end of the storm Monday evening, with 2-4" for Atlantic City.

Summary: Full disclosure. This is a tricky forecast, with New York City, New Jersey and Philadelphia right on the rain-snow line. A degree or two makes a big difference in a scenario like this. Odds still favor mostly rain, and even if a changeover to wet snow takes place PM hours tomorrow ground temperatures above 32 F should ensure mostly wet roads. Some slushy accumulation is possible on lawns and fields, especially south Jersey, but this storm will not rival the major systems that came thru in February and early March. Significant rain for coastal areas, coupled with strong winds (20-35 mph), will result in slow commutes and possible delays at area airports tomorrow. Conditions improve rapidly Tuesday as this storm sails out to sea. No, spring can't come soon enough this year.

Sandy Set To Be 3rd Costliest Hurricane, But Storms Of The Past Offer Perspective. Let's pray we don't have a 1926/Miami-size hurricane again anytime soon. Some timely numbers and perspective from PropertyCasualty360: "Superstorm Sandy will likely become the third-costliest hurricane in U.S. insurance history, but when examining historical storms using today’s dollars and exposures, Sandy would fall to the 12th costliest storm, says the Insurance Information Institute. In a presentation posted on I.I.I.’s website, initially given at Midwestern Actuarial Forum in Chicago today, I.I.I. Chief Economist Steve Weisbart projected Sandy insured losses to hit $20 billion, based on estimates of catastrophe-modeling firms and reported losses as of Jan. 12. That would place Sandy behind 1992’s Hurricane Andrew ($25.6 billion in insured losses) and ahead of 2008’s Hurricane Ike ($13.4 billion). All of those storms are dwarfed by 2005’s Katrina ($48.8 billion)..."

Graphic above (adjusted for inflation) courtesy of Karen Clark & Co.

Why Music Helps You Exercise Better. This article at Lifehacker caught my eye yesterday; here's a snippet: "...Music distracts people from pain and fatigue, elevates mood, increases endurance, reduces perceived effort and may even promote metabolic efficiency. When listening to music, people run farther, bike longer and swim faster than usual-often without realizing it. In a 2012 review of the research, Costas Karageorghis of Brunel University in London, one of the world's leading experts on the psychology of exercise music, wrote that one could think of music as "a type of legal performance-enhancing drug..."

We Now Live In A World Where More People Have Mobile Phones Than Clean Water. This headline made me do a triple-take; here's an excerpt from Quartz: "It is World Water Day, and time for the United Nations to remind us how many people in developing countries still lack basic sanitation. Surprisingly, the UN reports there are now more people with mobile phones (six billion for world population of seven billion) on earth than there are with access to clean toilets (4.5 billion). That phenomenon is easily visible in Indonesia, for example, where it is common to see people who live in metal roofed shacks without bathrooms surfing Facebook on their smartphones or feature phones. And it shows how, in the developing world, multinationals are often better at responding to peoples’ needs than governments are..."

Bucket List. My wife and I just returned from New Zealand, where we hosted a tour. Imagine a mash-up of Hawaii, Switzerland and England (with no chain stores). It's an amazing country; a little tough to get to - 14 hours from L.A. to Auckland, but worth the effort. The photo above was taken from our hotel in Queenstown, on the Southern Island, which has mountains, majestic lakes and fiords (like Norway). I'm starting to sound like a travel agent. Sorry. Here's the thing. I have a lot of older friends and family members who waited until their golden years to travel and do all the things they wanted to do together - only to be confronted with serious health issues that made travel impossible. So we've decided to take a few time-outs and see as much of the world as we can now. The best part of experiencing other countries and seeing how the rest of the world lives? Coming back to Minnesota. Yeah, even this month.

* thanks to meteorologist Todd Nelson for doing a great job on the Star Tribune print and blog while I was away.

 

Climate Stories....

Life After Oil And Gas. Canada gets a majority of its electricity from renewable energy sources (mostly hydroelectric). So does Norway. Here's an excerpt of an article at The New York Times: "WE will need fossil fuels like oil and gas for the foreseeable future. So there’s really little choice (sigh). We have to press ahead with fracking for natural gas. We must approve the Keystone XL pipeline to get Canadian oil. This mantra, repeated on TV ads and in political debates, is punctuated with a tinge of inevitability and regret. But, increasingly, scientific research and the experience of other countries should prompt us to ask: To what extent will we really “need” fossil fuel in the years to come? To what extent is it a choice? As renewable energy gets cheaper and machines and buildings become more energy efficient, a number of countries that two decades ago ran on a fuel mix much like America’s are successfully dialing down their fossil fuel habits. Thirteen countries got more than 30 percent of their electricity from renewable energy in 2011, according to the Paris-based International Energy Agency, and many are aiming still higher..."

Ice Breaking News: This Is Your 2013 Arctic Freezing Season On Crack. Here's a snippet of a story from Arctic Sea Ice Blog and ThinkProgress: "The sea ice cap on top of the Arctic Ocean is often imagined to be a monolithic, continuous sheet of ice floating on water. A closer look quickly shows it is rather a collection of larger and smaller pieces of sea ice. Of course, we have all seen the images of ice floes separated by open water during summer, but even during winter the ice pack gets fractured, leading to leads that quickly freeze over again..."

Graphic credit above: "Image of massive Arctic sea ice cracks showing temperature of the ice and the cracks between floes." Via Arctic Sea Ice blog.

U.N. Chief Warns That Nearly Half The World Could Face A Scarcity Of Water By 2030. Here's an excerpt from The Washington Post: "Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon is warning that by 2030 nearly half the world’s population could be facing a scarcity of water, with demand outstripping supply by 40 percent. Ban said one in three people already live in a country with moderate to high water stress. He spoke Friday at a U.N. event marking the opening of the International Year of Water Cooperation 2013 and the 20th anniversary of the proclamation of World Water Day..."

Climate Changes Before I Retire. This Op-Ed in the Vancouver Observer resonated with me - here's an excerpt: "There’s not a lot about climate change and its effects that horrifies me anymore. I guess you could say that I’m desensitised to it – melting permafrost? Yeah, I’ve read about it. Losing the Great Barrier Reef in Australia? Going to visit it before it’s all gone, but yeah, we’ll lose that too. A friend is buying a house? I’m cracking the jokes about how high above sea level it is and whether we’ll need to fortify it for the ‘end of the world’. Most of the research that is coming out now looking at climate models and the potential feedbacks we may get from complex climate systems are thinking we may have underestimated how fast climate change is going to kick us in the ass. If we’re lucky, and none of the non-linear feedbacks kick in too fast, we’re looking at experiencing between 1-3 C of global warming by 2050, and it’s likely those estimates will be conservative..."

Graphic credit above: "Warming projections to 2080 from Rowlands et al. in Nature Geoscience 5, 256-260 (2012)."

Geoengineering Is A Dangerous Solution To Climate Change. I have my doubts that there's a simple "fix" to counterbalance the trillions of tons of warming greenhouse gases we've pumped into the atmosphere. Should we keep an open mind? Absolutely. Is it going to be easy? I doubt it. Here's an excerpt of an Op-Ed at Huffington Post: "As the realities of global climate change become ever more alarming, advocates of technological approaches to "geoengineer" the planet's climate are gaining a following. But the technologies that are promoted -- from spraying sulphate particles into the stratosphere, to dumping iron particles into the ocean, to stimulate carbon absorbing plankton, to burning millions of trees and burying the char in soils -- are all fraught with clear and obvious risks, and are most likely only going to make matters worse. Yet zeal for these approaches continues unabated. According to right-wing think tank American Enterprise Institute, geoengineering offers:

"...the marriage of capitalism and climate remediation...What if corporations shoulder more costs and lead the technological charge, all for a huge potential payoff?...Let's hope we are unleashing enlightened capitalist forces that just might drive the kind of technological innovation necessary to genuinely tackle climate change."

What Zombie Films Tell Us About Climate Change: There's No One Happy Ending. What does climate change (and the notion of a 'safe' 2 degree C. warming limit) have to do with zombies? Here's a segment of an interesting Op-Ed at The Guardian: "...Stories generally have three elements; a thesis (the existing order), the anti-thesis (the thing that threatens to disturb that order) and the synthesis (the new order that emerges after the threat has been dealt with). That is what gives a story its narrative arc and tension. The great thing about proper zombie films is that they play havoc with this structure. There is a thesis and an anti-thesis but no synthesis. The zombies are never destroyed and no new stable order emerges. And that, I fear, may be the truth of the climate change story...."

Photo credit above: "In zombie movies such as Dawn of the Dead, 'zombies are never destroyed and no new stable order emerges. And that, I fear, may be the truth of the climate change story'. Photograph: Ronald Grant Archive.