Wednesday, November 6, 2013

GFS Prints Out Big Snow for Mid Atlantic Next Week (Category 5 "Haiyan" heading toward Philippines)

10.5" snow fell at Milroy, Minnesota Tuesday.

Limping into Winter

"You can prove anything with statistics" my father warned me. Amen. Minnesota's weather is rarely "average" - we usually ricochet from one extreme to the next. The median date of the first 1 inch snow at MSP is November 18. But the first inch has come as early as September 26 (1942), as late as January 9 (1945). There's no rhyme or reason.

1.1 inches of slush fell at MSP International Tuesday night, but most of that melted on contact. Amazingly, no weather models take soil temperatures into account. It's hard to get accumulating snow when you start the day in the mid-40s. But farther north & west it was 5-8F colder, allowing a whopping 10.5 inches to accumulate at Milroy, Minnesota. Yes, November snows are especially fickle.

This is why my ulcers have ulcers.

Welcome to a drama-free weather zone, at least into the weekend. We warm into the 40s over the weekend; PM rain showers Friday in the Twin Cities - maybe a coating to an inch of slush far north to help with tracking for Saturday's Deer Hunting Opener.

A much colder front is brewing next week with highs from 25-35. Temperatures moderate by the third week of November - jet stream winds aloft howling from Seattle, instead of the Yukon.
I'm OK with that.

* Amazing aurora photo above courtesy of Steve Burns Photography.
Snowy Swath. Yesterday's visible satellite loop from NOAA showed the band of snow from Tuesday night's fast-moving wave of low pressure - amounts heaviest over southwest Minnesota, where some 3-8" amounts were reported. Note the melting by early afternoon, especially over the Twin Cities metro, where the urban heat island accelerated warming.
Snowfall Totals. Here's a good summary of how much snow fell Tuesday and Tuesday night; heaviest amounts near Marshall, 2-3" on the south side of St. Cloud. Source: Twin Cities National Weather Service.
Current Weather Watches, Warnings & Advisories. If you're doing any traveling in the coming weeks leading up to Thanksgiving click here to see the latest national and regional advisories, courtesy of Ham Weather.
No Huge Surprises. After holding in the upper 30s today the mercury SOARS to 40-ish Friday (with a few PM rain showers), low to mid 40s over the weekend before a temperature tumble next week. A clipper may brush portions of Minnesota on Tuesday. Graph: Weatherspark.
Some Moderation Third Week Of November? The models have been all over the map, so my confidence level is lower than usual, but there's a fair amount of guidance suggesting a Pacific/zonal flow returning in about 2 weeks, with highs in the 40s to near 50F.
October Recap. The map above shows precipitation anomalies from June 26 to November 5, a dry bias for most of Minnesota. The far western and eastern suburbs of the Twin Cities are running a 5-6" rainfall deficit since late June, an 8" rainfall shortfall for parts of southwest and far southeast Minnesota. Only a small sliver of west central Minnesota and the North Shore has seen wetter than average conditions during this same period. Here's a review of October, courtesy of the Minnesota DNR and the Minnesota Climatology Working Group:
  • October precipitation totals were above historical averages in most Minnesota counties. For many Minnesota locales, October precipitation totals exceeded long-term averages by an inch or more. In some central and southeast Minnesota communities, monthly precipitation totals topped historical averages by two or more inches and eased drought concerns in those areas.
  • Two to six inches of rain fell on portions of southeast Minnesota on October 4 and 5, leading to mudslides, road washouts, and urban flooding.
  • The U. S. Drought Monitor places large sections of the southern one-half of Minnesota, and a small area of northwest Minnesota in the Moderate Drought category. Roughly one-quarter of the state is designated as undergoing Moderate Drought. This is an improvement over early October when nearly 40 percent of Minnesota's landscape fell in the Moderate Drought or Severe Drought categories.
Historical Thanksgiving Day Weather - And The GFS Says What? Late November can bring everything from blizzards to tornado outbreaks. In today's edition of Climate Matters we recap memorable storms, and take a look at an eye-popping GFS snow forecast for the Mid Atlantic Region. I have my doubts: "WeatherNationTV Chief Meteorologist Paul Douglas is already thinking about Thanksgiving. Turkey dinners, family, football, and tornadoes? It's possible. Significant weather events on Thanksgiving range from blizzards to howling winds to tornado outbreaks. Also, the GFS is letting lose with a deluge of snow for the Mid-Atlantic. Take it with a grain of salt."
A Storm To Rival "Pablo"? Pablo devasted portions of the Philippines in December, 2012, sparking over 1,000 deaths and extensive damage. "Haiyan" is a comparable storm, forecast to impact the central Philippines Friday (local Manila time). Here's an excerpt of an Alerts Broadcaster briefing that went out yesterday:

* Super Typhoon Haiyan estimated to have reached Category 5 strength, with sustained winds of 160 mph, gusts to 190 mph.
* Slight weakening is possible before Haiyan comes ashore over the central Philippines Friday (local Manila time), but this will probably be the most destructive typhoon of the year for the Philippines, possibly the strongest in several years. Extreme damage and significant loss of life is possible with this storm, mainly over the central Philippines, the eastern coast of southern Luzon and the Samar Islands. The island nation of Palau may take a direct and devasting hit from Haiyan.
* The core of strongest winds, heaviest rains and highest storm surge will pass south of Manila during the day Friday and Friday night, local time, with only minor to moderate impacts for the capital city.
Super-Storm. "Haiyan" is the strongest storm I've seen yet this year in the western Pacific, factoring wind speed and the size of the wind field. Sustained winds are 160 mph with gusts to 190; this powerful Category 5 typhoon (same thing as a hurricane) whipping up 48 foot seas as it tracks to the west-northwest.
Timing Haiyan. The Navy's JTWC, or Joint Typhoon Warning Center, has Haiyan reaching the central Philippines during the day Friday (local time) as a severe Category 4-5 storm, capable of an extreme 20-25 foot storm surge, sustained winds over 150 mph, and as much as 15" rain, capable of extensive flooding and mudslides. The core of the storm passes 150-200 miles southwest of Manila late Friday and Friday night, Manila time, brushing the capital with winds gusting to 50-60 mph and minor to moderate flooding as the outer bands of this system pass just south.
Predicted Wind Swath. Our internal models show the most damaging winds with Super Typhoon Haiyan tracking (just) south of Manila Friday PM hours (local time). Winds may top 140 mph in the central Philippines, but I expect gusts no higher than 50-60 mph in downtown Manila at the height of the storm Friday PM hours.
Rainfall Estimates. Right now the GFS model keeps the band of heaviest (10-15") rains just south of Manila. Severe river and flash flooding and mudslides are likely over the central Philippines, but on it's current trajectory I expect only minor to moderate urban flooding in Manila. Keep in mind soils are already saturated across much of the Philippines from recent heavy rains. Haiyan will add insult to injury.
Damage Path. Potentially catastrophic wind damage is possible over the central Philippines, from Tacloban to Roxas and Kalibo. Latest models show winds close to 145-155 mph at landfall Friday morning, local time. I'm very concerned about Palau, which will see a direct strike from Haiyan. Much of the island is close to sea level, and storm surge damage may be extensive, possibly extreme.
Predicted Storm Surge. The good news: only a 1-3 foot storm surge is projected for Manila Bay on Friday (local time). But the central Philippines will see Haiyan's full fury, with a potential for a 15-20 foot surge from Roxas City to San Jose and Coron. Any slight northward jog in the storm track could bring a significant storm surge into Manila Bay - something we need to watch carefully over the next 24 hours.

Summary: an especially dangerous typhoon is bearing down on the central Philippines, capable of extreme damage and potential loss of life. The greatest concern is storm surge, the sudden rise in sea level as the eye of the storm passes nearby, as much as 15-20+ feet for some coastal communities well south of Manila. A secondary concern is damaging winds, strongest on the coast at landfall, near Guiuan and Borongan City early Friday, local time. 10-15" rains will trigger extensive inland flooding and mudslides - widespread power outages are likely. I'm concerned about aftermath; a significant risk of disease and even civil unrest, in the wake of what will probably be the most destructive typhoon to hit the Philippines in many years. We'll keep you posted.
Paul Douglas - Alerts Broadcaster


NOAA View Data Imagery Portal (beta). Here's a new tool for visualizing data, worldwide. Thanks to Capital Weather Gang for bringing this to my attention: "NOAA View provides access to maps of NOAA data from a variety of satellite, model, and other analysis sources. NOAA View is intended as an education and outreach tool, and is not an official source of NOAA data for decision support or scientific purposes."
Smog Blamed As Girl, 8, Becomes Youngest Lung Cancer Patient. Good grief - remind me not to visit China without a state-of-the-art gas mask. Here's an excerpt from a sobering article at The South China Morning Post: "An eight-year-old girl has become the mainland's youngest lung cancer patient, with her illness blamed directly on environment factors. The girl from Jiangsu lived by a busy road where she inhaled all kinds of dust and particles, China News Service cited Dr Feng Dongjie of Jiangsu Cancer Hospital as saying. These included superfine PM2.5 particles, less than 2.5 microns wide, that are considered the most dangerous component of smog, Feng said. The country's breakneck urbanisation and industrialisation has created some of the world's worst urban pollution, which is blamed for soaring rates of cancer and respiratory diseases..."

Photo credit above: "China's breakneck urbanisation and industrialisation has created some of the world's worst urban pollution." Photo: AP.
It's A Sad, Sad, Sad, Sad World. Depression And Global Disability. Yes, it could be worse, you could be living in Afghanistan. The Los Angeles Times has the story - here's an excerpt: "Clinical depression is now the second-leading cause of global disability, according to new research, with the highest rates of incidence affecting working-age adults and women more than men. In a paper published Tuesday in the journal Plos Medicine, researchers found that depressive disorders were second only to lower respiratory infections when it came to inflicting the most years of disability on people throughout the world. Rates of depression were highest in Afghanistan and lowest in Japan, while the condition ranked as the top cause of disability in Central America and Central and Southeast Asia..."

Map credit above: "A new study reports that depression is the second-leading cause of global disability. This map shows nations with a statistically lower rate of depression disability in blue, middle-ranking rates in yellow and high rates in orange. Rankings are relative to global mean rate of years lived with disability." (Plos Medicine / November 5, 2013).
How The Way We Walk Can Increase Risk Of Being Mugged. Here's a clip from The BBC: "How you move gives a lot away. Maybe too much, if the wrong person is watching. We think, for instance, that the way people walk can influence the likelihood of an attack by a stranger. But we also think that their walking style can be altered to reduce the chances of being targeted. A small number of criminals commit most of the crimes, and the crimes they commit are spread unevenly over the population: some unfortunate individuals seem to be picked out repeatedly by those intent on violent assault..."

Photo credit above: "Man walking in tunnel." (Stig Nygaard/Flickr).
The Science Of Why You Hate Your Daughter's Boyfriend. The things you learn on this-here-interweb-thingy. Here's a clip from a story at NewStatesman: "...Two scientists have come up with an evolutionary argument. In a study published in the journal of Evolution and Human Behaviour, Franjo Weissing and Bram Buunk argue that it all stems from children trying to get money out of their parents. To show this, they built a computer model detailing a vast fictional population. The men had different abilities to provide for future children, and women had varying strengths of preference for this trait..."
Toyota's Hyper-Radical FV2 Concept Pushes Personal Transportation Boundaries. A robotic, fully-enclosed motorcycl? It defies simple description - details from Gizmag: "Toyota's already bold pursuit of new vistas in the realm of personal transportation took another quantum leap forward today, when the Japanese giant released details of the FV2, a concept car more closely related to the Kirobo humanoid communication robot than any vehicle currently on public roads..."

Climate Stories....
Greenhouse Gas Emissions Reached New High In 2012, World Meteorological Organization Says. CO2 emissions actually came down in the USA, but increased significantly in China and India. Here's an excerpt from Reuters and Huffington Post: "Atmospheric volumes of greenhouse gases blamed for climate change hit a new record in 2012, the World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) said on Wednesday. "For all these major greenhouse gases the concentrations are reaching once again record levels," WMO Secretary-General Michel Jarraud told a news conference in Geneva at which he presented the U.N. climate agency's annual Greenhouse Gas Bulletin. Jarraud said the accelerating trend was driving climate change, making it harder to keep global warming to within 2 degrees Celsius, a target agreed at a Copenhagen summit in 2009..."
New York, London and Mumbai: Major Cities Face Risk From Sea Level Rises. Too alarmist? We'll see, but here's the thing: this isn't about climate models projecting out 50 years into the future. Sea level rise is a documented reality. Since 1750 the water in New York Harbor has risen about 15". The only question is how much higher, and how quickly. Here's a clip from The Guardian: "...Strauss' analysis only looks at the likelihood coastal cities will be under water. Strauss forecasts the impact of rising seas without storms. He doesn't forecast the likelihood that calamitous weather events like Hurricane Sandy will cause far greater damage when the oceans have risen closer to the level of the cities, overwhelming roads, sewers, underground trains, and water systems. We can now imagine a day when storms do not merely damage coastal cities but destroy them. He contends that by 2100, more than 25% of Boston, Miami, New Orleans, and Atlantic City could be under water. The same forecast (23 ft or 7m by 2100) can be plugged into a global map of elevations and sea levels here. Such a calculation is even more alarming. Most of the globe's economic activity is funneled through cities that will be fighting to stay above water. Imagine a world without Shanghai, Mumbai and Boston, a world in which London and New York are risky settings for markets..."

Photo credit above: "Ben Strauss, Climate Central predicts that by 2100, more than 25% of Boston, Miami, New Orleans, and Atlantic City could be under water." Photograph: Alex Brandon/AP.
If All The Ice Melted. Not likely to happen anytime soon, but you will see increasing pressure along the world's coastlines in the years to come. Here's an excerpt from an eye-opening interactive map from National Geographic: "The maps here show the world as it is now, with only one difference: All the ice on land has melted and drained into the sea, raising it 216 feet and creating new shorelines for our continents and inland seas. There are more than five million cubic miles of ice on Earth, and some scientists say it would take more than 5,000 years to melt it all. If we continue adding carbon to the atmosphere, we’ll very likely create an ice-free planet, with an average temperature of perhaps 80 degrees Fahrenheit instead of the current 58."

Interactive map credit above: Jason Treat, Matthew Twombly, Web Barr, Maggie Smith, NGM staff. Art: Kees Veenenbos. Sources: Pilippe Huybrechts, Vrije Unversiteit Brussel, Richard S. Williams, Jr. Woods Hole Research Center, James C. Zachos, Universoty of California, Santa Cruz, USGS, NOAA, ETOP01 Bedrock, 1 arc-minute global relief model copyright September 2013 National Geographic Society.
Why Even California Can't Stop Catastrophic Climate Change. Quartz has the story - here's the introduction: "For climate change optimists, California is indeed the golden state when it comes to aggressive policies designed to avoid catastrophic climate change. But as a new report makes depressingly clear, even Ecotopia will fall far short of hitting a target of reducing greenhouse gas emissions 80% by 2050 without the invention of new technologies and imposition of more draconian green mandates.  That’s the number scientists believe must be met to keep climate change in check. And if California can’t meet such a mandate, what nation can, given the inability of governments to even to agree to take the most tentative steps to reduce greenhouse gas emissions?..."

Photo credit above: "If even the Golden State can't pull off needed carbon cutting, expect more scenes like this." AP Photo/Mark Schiefelbein.
Can Attacking Scientists Be A Political Liability? Michael Halpern has the article (and possible implications of the Virginia governor's race) at The Union of Concerned Scientists; here's the intro: "Politicians attack scientists to score points with voters and their backers, whether it’s members of Congress attacking individual government grantees or belittling scientists whose research undermines their legislative priorities.  It got so bad that UCS put out a guide for scientists who find their work under an unusual amount of scrutiny (still a good idea to take a look before you’re in that situation).  But yesterday’s election in Virginia may showcase how these sorts of attacks can backfire, making a candidate look extreme and out of touch. For those who haven’t followed the case, a recap: former University of Virginia scientist Michael Mann is responsible for pioneering climate change research that has since been reaffirmed by scores of researchers and scientific bodies. Virginia Attorney General Ken Cuccinelli thought he knew better. He made headlines around the world by issuing subpoenas to UVa under the Virginia Fraud Against Taxpayers Act for Mann’s personal emails and other documents (The scientist subsequently wrote a book about being raked over the coals by Cuccinelli and other politicians)..."
Virginia Governor's Race Shows Global Warming Science Denial Is A Losing Political Stance. Here's an excerpt from a Guardian article posted by St. Thomas professor and climate scientist John Abraham: "...Ken Cuccinelli has a history of not only discounting scientists but spending taxpayers' money to actively attack them. In 2010, he began a witch hunt and accused climate scientist Dr. Michael Mann of fraud. In the end, Cuccinelli's crusade wasted hundreds of thousands of hard-earned taxpayer dollars – waste that Virginia voters did not forget. As Dr. Mann himself, who campaigned for Terry McAuliffe, says, "As discussed in some detail in my recent book The Hockey Stick and the Climate Wars, Ken Cuccinelli, as a newly minted Attorney General of Virginia, back in early 2010, engaged in what The Washington Post called a "witch hunt" against me and the University of Virginia. He sought to abuse his authority as attorney general by demanding all of my personal emails from the six years I was a faculty member at the University of Virginia..."

Photo credit above: "Terry McAuliffe made climate realism a big part of his campaign, and won yesterday's election to become Virginia's new governor." Photograph: Reuters.
Climate Change Puts 5 Million Israelis At Risk Of Severe Flooding Events. Here's a clip from a story at The Jerusalem Post: "Rising temperatures and climbing sea levels due to climate change could be putting more than five million Israelis at severe risk, a special Environmental Protection Ministry report has indicated. The rise of the Mediterranean Sea’s levels as well as the flooding of rivers could gravely impact five million Israelis as water barrels into their communities, the study warned. In addition to the flooding dangers, the conditions could also result in outbreaks of transmissible diseases from pests such as mosquitoes, the report explained. Escalating temperatures combined with population growth will also undoubtedly lead to an increased demand for water from decreasing aquifer supplies, it said..."

Photo credit above: "A storm touches down on water off Atlit coast." Photo: Baz Ratner / Reuters
No, We Are NOT In A Climate "Pause". Slate has the video and article; here's an excerpt: "...One argument Hank brings up (at the 1:44 mark), and one I’ve hammered on a few times as well, is this idea that we’re in some sort of global warming pause. This is a claim that gets some traction, because when you look at land surface temperatures over the past few years, they haven’t gone up as quickly as they have in the past. However, using this measurement to claim that global warming has stopped, or even just paused, is wrong. The good folks at NASA Goddard recently posted a video interview with climate scientist Josh Willis to put this claim to rest..."
Is It Too Late To Prepare For Climate Change? Here's an excerpt from an Elizabeth Kolbert article at The New Yorker: "...Promoting “preparedness” is doubtless a good idea. As the executive order notes, climate impacts—which include, but are not limited to, heat waves, heavier downpours, and an increase in the number and intensity of wildfires—are “already affecting communities, natural resources, ecosystems, economies, and public health across the Nation.” However, one of the dangers of this enterprise is that it tends to presuppose, in a Boy Scout-ish sort of way, that “preparedness” is possible. As we merrily roll along, radically altering the planet, we are, as the leaked I.P.C.C. report makes clear, increasingly in danger of committing ourselves to outcomes that will simply overwhelm societies’ ability to adapt..."
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Tuesday, November 5, 2013

Mild Pacific Bias Next 2 Weeks (remembering the "Great White Hurricane" of 1913)


Psychology of Snow

A veritable blizzard of e-mails, texts, tweets and calls came into my office yesterday from concerned citizens. You would have thought I was tracking a cloud of radioactivity, a volcanic eruption near Willmar - or maybe a swarm of zombies showing up on Doppler.

"Is it going to be bad?" No. It's just snow.

"Why do we panic so much now for just a few inches of snow?" someone asked at a St. Paul Rotary talk yesterday. Great question. My hunch? Far more traffic on area roads. An inch of snow at the wrong time (and temperature) can wreak havoc with people's schedules. That, and a steady drumbeat of weather drama in the media. Hey, storms are good for ratings, right?

The reality: it's tough getting a huge pile of snow when there's so much mild air already in place, and soil temperatures are still relatively warm from a few days in the 40s and 50s. A fresh blast of arctic air usually precedes our most notable snowfalls, when not only the air but the ground is cold enough for the snow to stick and accumulate rapidly.

Our quick shot of slush gives way to chilled sun later today, any snow in your yard mostly-gone by Thursday. 40s return early next week before another cold frontal passage Monday and Tuesday. Cold but not exactly arctic. A zonal, west to east wind flow from the Pacific may prevent any extended bitter outbreaks looking out the next 2 weeks or so.
Saved By Warm Ground Temperatures. Monday and much of Tuesday models consistently brought the heaviest snow bands just south/east of the Twin Cities. But after a few days of 40s and 50s ground temperatures were too warm for rapid accumulation. It turns out the heaviest band set up just north/west of MSP, some 2-4" amounts as of midnight over Wright County, as much as 4-9" over far southwest Minnesota as of midnight. Click here for the latest map showing snowfall totals. For an updated look at (text) amounts click here, data courtesy of NOAA. Yes, air temperatures in the lowest mile matter, so do soil temperatures.
Seasonably Chilly. Highs may hold in the upper 30s to near 40 today and Thursday, then recover into the 40s in time for the weekend. Colder, Canadian air dribbles south next week, readings below average. A few light (rain) showers are possible Friday, maybe a coating of snow up north to help with tracking for Saturday's Deer Hunting Opener. Graphic: Weatherspark.
Another Upward Blip In Temperature Third Week of November? The GFS model has been fairly consistent, showing more 40s, even a few 50s, by the third week of November. The week after next may feel more like mid-October.
Modified Zonal Flow. The map above shows 300mb jet stream winds as of Tuesday evening at 6 PM, howling from the southwest for much of America. Winds aloft are forecast to be zonal, blowing primarily from west to east, looking out the next 2 weeks, keeping any bitter air well north of the USA. Cold air will still push into the northern states from time to time, but as long as steering winds blow from the Pacific (and not the Yukon) we'll avoid tracking Arctic air. Map: San Francisco State University.
"The White Hurricane" - How Far We've Come With Weather Technology. In 1913 how did mariners get updated storm information? They didn't. When they left port they were on their own. That's problematic when an extreme storm with 90 mph wind gusts whips up. In today's edition of Climate Matters we take a look back in time, and project forward to a continued mild bias for much of the USA east of the Rockies the next 2 weeks. Is El Nino coming back? The trends seem to suggest that may be the case by early 2014: "WeatherNationTV Chief Meteorologist Paul Douglas looks back at "The White Hurricane" that took the lives of nearly 270 mariners on the Great Lakes. Also, what do the next few weeks have in store and could we see El Niño this winter?"
Along An Arizona Highway, Dust Storms A Deadly Part Of Life. Weatherbug has the article; here's the introduction: "The intense dust that blew through a stretch of highway, killing three people and injuring others Tuesday, is nothing new for the residents of a southern Arizona town between Tucson and Phoenix. Every couple years a dense ribbon of dust -- roughly a quarter-mile high and 20 to 30 miles long -- causes a wreck along the same stretch of highway, near the town of Picacho, said Ken Waters, a warning coordination meteorologist for the National Weather Service in Phoenix. Edward Bruce Martan, 63, was born and raised in this town and said he can almost sense when a ribbon is about to hit. "You can feel it," he said. "It`s when a cool weather front comes through. You can just predict it. It`s the same place every time. Milepost 214..."
The 5 Things You Need To Know About Wildfires. Here's a clip from a story at Huffington Post: "With each passing dry season, it seems headlines about devastating wildfires are becoming increasingly commonplace. In 2012, such blazes consumed an acreage equivalent to the combined size of Massachusetts and Connecticut. This year has likewise proved to be exceptionally devastating in many regards. You've likely heard conversations about the Rim Fire -- California's fourth-largest wildfire ever, burning a total of 260,000 acres -- or the Yarnell Fire, a tragedy that claimed the lives of 19 firefighters in Arizona. After hearing about these events time and time again, one might develop questions that most articles on the topic fail to address. Why do wildfires continue year after year? Can't we do something to better manage fires?" (Image above: Capital Weather Gang).
Death By Lightning A Danger In Developing Countries. It's an ongoing danger here too, but we have technologies and warning systems (and mass media) that many countries simply don't have access to. National Geographic has the report; here's a clip: "Developing countries have long lists of problems—illiteracy, disease, hunger, corruption. There's one more problem that has gotten less attention, until recently: lightning strikes, which cause a disproportionately high number of deaths in developing countries. Thanks to years of public education campaigns, most Americans know that "when thunder roars, go indoors." But that basic guideline isn't as well known in many developing countries, which consistently see hundreds or even thousands of deaths and injuries per year from lightning strikes. Experts point to lack of education, but a number of doctors and meteorologists from around the world are trying to change that..."

Photo credit above: "South Africa's Cape Town had a severe electrical storm that ripped through the skies at regular intervals for more than an hour." Photograph by Lynda Smith, Your Shot, National Geographic.
To Stave Off Decline, Churches Attract New Members WIth Beer. It gives communion a whole new meaning. Here's a clip of an NPR story that made me do a double-take: "With mainline religious congregations dwindling across America, a scattering of churches is trying to attract new members by creating a different sort of Christian community. They are gathering around craft beer. Some church groups are brewing it themselves, while others are bring the Holy Mysteries to a taproom. The result is not sloshed congregants; rather, it's an exploratory approach to do church differently..."

Photo credit above: "Todd Fadel, at piano, leads singers at a recent gathering of Beer & Hymns at First Christian Church Portland." John Burnett/NPR.
Thorium-Fueled Automobile Engine Needs Refueling Once A Century. Industry Tap has the remarkable story - here's the introduction: "There are now over one billion cars traveling roads around the world directly and indirectly costing trillions of dollars in material resources, time and noxious emissions. Imagine all these cars running cleanly for 100 years on just 8 grams of fuel each. Laser Power Systems (LPS) from Connecticut, USA, is developing a new method of automotive propulsion with one of the most dense materials known in nature: thorium. Because thorium is so dense it has the potential to produce tremendous amounts of heat. The company has been experimenting with small bits of thorium, creating a laser that heats water, produces steam and powers a mini turbine..."

Photo credit above: "Thorium Concept Car." Image Courtesy www.greenpacks.com
"Enders Game" And Maneuver Warfare. With the movie about to come out I found this concerpt intriguing; here's the intro to a story at medium.com: "In the mid-1980s there arose a new theory of warfare. The idea is to avoid large force-on-force attacks, use speed instead of firepower and strike at the enemy’s vulnerabilities. Proponents describe it as fighting smart. You attack the enemy’s thinking, forcing on him an unending chain of hard choices. Still practiced today, it’s called “maneuver warfare.” At the same time the new concept was gaining popularity, an award-winning military science fiction novel was released. Orson Scott Card’s Ender’s Game is now a sci-fi classic..."

Image credit above: Lionsgate.


Climate Stories....
The Storm Of The Century That Comes Year After Year. No kidding. The PBS Newshour has the story (and video); here's a clip: "Klaus Jacob, a special research scientist with the Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, discusses the possible link between Hurricane Sandy, climate change and a move toward more frequent and disastrous weather events. Plus, why the 100-year-storm will become the two-year storm by the end of the century. For more, watch Miles O'Brien's reports on preparing for the next superstorm. This series was created in partnership with NOVA and derived from Megastorm Aftermath..."
The Subterranean War On Science. Here's an excerpt from an eyebrow-raising article at The Association for Psychological Science: "...This conspiratorial element provides a breeding ground for the personal and professional attacks on scientists that seemingly inevitably accompany science denial. The present authors have all been subject to such attacks, whose similarity is notable because the authors’ research spans a broad range of topics and disciplines: The first author has investigated the psychological variables underlying the acceptance or rejection of scientific findings; the second author is a paleoclimatologist who has shown that current global temperatures are likely unprecedented during the last 1,000 years or more; the third and fourth authors are public-health researchers who have investigated the attitudes of teenagers and young adults towards smoking and evaluated a range of tobacco control interventions; and the fifth author has established that human memory is not only fallible but subject to very large and systematic distortions..."
Researcher Helps Sow Climate Change Doubt. The Boston Globe has the story - here's a clip: "...Outside the Beltway, the science is largely settled. Yet in the capital, government response to one of the major environmental and economic challenges facing the planet is mired in an endless cycle of conflicting claims and partisan finger-pointing. The work of Soon, and a handful of like-minded scientists, is seen by critics in Congress and elsewhere as a case study in how this deadlock has been engineered by energy companies and antiregulation conservatives. “They are merchants of doubt, not factual information,’’ said Senator Sheldon Whitehouse, a Rhode Island Democrat who delivers a Senate speech every week demanding stronger air-quality standards. “Their strategy isn’t to convince people that the scientists are wrong. Their strategy is simply to raise the specter that there is enough doubt that . . . you should just move onto the next issue until this gets sorted out,’’ he said. “It gives credibility to a crank point of view....’’

Photo credit above: PETE MAROVICH FOR BOSTON GLOBE. "Willie Soon’s work is funded by energy industry grants."

Adapting To Climate Change Does Not Mean Accepting It. Here's a clip from an entry at Huffington Post: "...My view is that the technical breakthroughs needed for this transformation will come. I am counting on human ingenuity coupled with a growing cultural awareness of the need for clean, renewable energy. As early 20th century New Yorkers stepped through the manure in lower Manhattan, they knew that the era of horse-based transportation had reached its limit. Horses worked well in small towns, but created problems in larger cities. We know that a planet with over seven billion people cannot fuel its economy the same way it did when it was as a planet of one or two billion people. We also need to remember that adapting to climate change does not mean that we accept it. We still need to eliminate global warming by reducing the production of greenhouse gases."
Facing The Change: Personal Encounters With Global Warming. How do you communicate the science (and implications) without people becoming hopelessly depressed, agitated and unwilling to engage? Great question. Here's an excerpt focused on a book that is attempting to dive into the psychological impact of climate change, how it's impacting us emotionally: "Facing the Change: Personal Encounters with Global Warming is a new kind of book about climate change. Instead of experts talking at us, this innovative literary collection shares the voices of fellow citizens struggling to make sense of the concrete changes taking place in our world today. Instead of scientific facts and predictions, this book offers personal essays, poems, and short stories expressing what's going on in people's lives, hearts, and dreams. Instead of leaving readers guilty and disempowered, this book will help us all to begin to work through the full range of emotions - confusion, fear, sorrow, anger, and realistic hope - that we must face in confronting the crisis..."
Power Plants Try Burning Wood With Coal To Cut Carbon Emissions. Here's a clip from an interesting story at The New York Times: "Even as the Environmental Protection Agency considers requiring existing coal-fired power plants to cut their carbon dioxide output, some utilities have started to use a decidedly low-tech additive that accomplishes that goal: wood. Ranging in size from sawdust to chunks as big as soup cans, waste wood from paper mills, furniture factories and logging operations has been used with varying levels of success. Minnesota Power, which once generated almost all of its power from coal and is now trying to convert to one-third renewables and one-third natural gas, found that co-firing with wood was a quick way to move an old plant partly to the renewable category..."

Photo credit above: American Electric Power. "Using modest amounts of wood at a large number of coal plants could be a relatively quick way to phase in renewable energy."
Will Climate Change Imperil Your Cup Of Starbucks? Oh no, not the coffee. Take anything but please leave me a few feeble coffee beans to spend my "mature years". We'll see - here's an excerpt from an entry at National Geographic: "...To the relief and potential horror of caffeine addicts everywhere, Feeley said, “To see species move upslope, that means they are responding to climate change. So that’s a good thing. Because if they don’t respond, they are almost certainly doomed to extinction.” So, could coffee become an imperiled species, threatened by the steady march of climate change? It’s too soon to tell, but in remembering that jungle conversation I had in southern Peru last summer, I found some clues in Justin Gillis’ page-one story in The New York Times on Nov. 2 under the headline: “Climate Change Seen Posing Risk To Food Supplies...”
Shell Announces Plans To Resume Arctic Drilling In 2014. Here's the intro to a story at oilprices.com: "After a disastrous campaign in 2012, which forced the company to abandon all plans for this year, Royal Dutch Shell has announced that it will return to the Arctic waters in 2014 to begin exploring for oil again, but on a much smaller scale. One of the main differences this time will be the abandonment of the Kulluk conical drilling rig that ran aground last time as Shell tried to toe it back to Port near the end of the 2012 drilling season. As a replacement Shell has leased out the Polar Pioneer, a semi-submersible drilling rig owned by Transocean. The Kulluk may well be put back into operation at some other point in the future, but only if it is deemed cost effective to repair the damaged unit..."

Photo credit above: "Kulluk rig."
Ten Days: How We Imagine Climate Change. The role of aerosols is coming under increasing scrutiny. Some of that air pollution may actually be preventing an even sharper spike in temperatures, worldwide. Here's a clip from a story at Australia's The Conversation: "...But here’s the twist. If all emissions were to stop tomorrow, so would the output of those human-made aerosols reflecting radiation back into space. These aerosols have a residence time in the atmosphere of just ten days, meaning that after just ten days it would be like increasing CO2 emissions by 50%. It kind of makes reducing CO2 emissions to 5% off 2000 levels by 2020 seem rather pathetic. Ten days, a time-horizon that people in the city should be able to relate to. If this were to happen, the likelihood of the positive feedbacks that are triggered by warming, such as more abundant water vapour, natural albedo loss (like melting ice an glaciers), extensive firestorms, and methane pulses, would be greatly enhanced..."

Photo credit above: "Aerosols such as this smog over Mexico City have helped keep temperatures down. What would happen if they were cleaned up?" Flickr/brian.gratwicke.
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Monday, November 4, 2013

Sloppy Snow Upper Midwest (mild bias east of Rockies into 3rd week of November?)


On Edge

Ring the church bells, sound the air raid siren three times, then run for the hills! Snow is on the way!!
Which would be noteworthy if we lived in Maui or Miami.

"It's Minnesota. It's winter. It snows here. Get over it." a friend helpfully reminded me yesterday. I couldn't agree more.

But the first snow is always tricky, as we all try to regain our snow-legs. Traffic? A vehicular version of The Walking Dead. Gruesome. Be extra generous & patient on the freeways later today.
A fast-moving wave of low pressure taps moisture from the Gulf of Mexico; temperatures aloft cooling as the day wears on. A cold rain changes to wet snow by late afternoon or evening (but roads remain mostly-wet for the PM commute). After a few days in the 40s and 50s ground temperatures are still mild, and I still expect significant melting of snow on contact for a time Tuesday evening, cutting down on snowfall totals. After 6 or 7 PM, as ground temperatures cool, snow should begin to stick, and accumulate.

"How many inches!"

Expect a big range across the MSP metro, maybe an inch northern suburbs, but closer to 3-4 inches south metro, and a few lucky towns could wind up with 5-7" closer to Northfield, Le Center and Mankato. Plowable for much of the south metro, but again, this will NOT be Snowmageddon or Snowpocalypse. Lower your expectations.

If you like snow (and you know who you are) get out there and romp around in it first thing Wednesday, because highs may hit 50F by next Tuesday. In fact long-range guidance shows 50s, even 60F around November 18. No parades of snowstorms or bitter blasts are brewing just yet. Yes, November is one dark, cruel & fickle month.

Oh noooo. Snow!
* Potential for enough snow to shovel and plow late Tuesday and Tuesday night in a narrow band from Sioux Falls to the Twin Cities.
* 2-4" amounts expected, locally 6" south of the Twin Cities and portions of western Wisconsin Tuesday night.
* Twin Cities: roads remain wet up until 5 PM. Highways will become slushy and slick by Tuesday evening.
* 5-7 hour burst of heavy, wet snow. Leaves still on many trees - increasing potential for small tree limbs to come down between 6 PM Tuesday and 2 AM Wednesday morning, minor/sporadic power outages possible, especially south/east of the Twin Cities.
* Travel conditions rapidly improve Wednesday.
* Pattern trends milder into mid-November. No sign of a persistently snowy/icy or bitter pattern looking out the next 2 weeks.
Winter Weather Advisory. The Winter Storm Watch issued earlier today has been downgraded to a Winter Weather Advisory. Accumulation is still likely, but for a variety of reasons the risk of (heavy) snow has diminished in the last 8 hours. A fast-moving wave of low pressure will limit just how long significant snow will fall, and after a few days of 40s and 50s ground temperatures are still mild, meaning snow will melt on contact Tuesday evening, dropping total accumulations. The Advisory includes North Platte, Sioux Falls, Mankato, the Twin Cities and Eau Claire. Map: Ham Weather.
Latest Snowfall Projections. I'm expecting a 100 mile wide band of snow accumulation, as much as 3-4" in Sioux Falls, 2-4" for much of the Twin Cities metro area, but far northern suburbs will pick up only an inch or two, while far southern suburbs (Lakeville, Cottage Grove) may see as much as 4-6" of accumulation by 2 AM Wednesday morning. I could see (minor) delays at MSP International Tuesday night due to low visibility in heavy wet snow. 4 km NAM model output: Ham Weather.
Sharp Snowfall Gradient. The northern suburbs of Minneapolis and St. Paul may only pick up an inch, maybe 2" of slushy snow Tuesday night, while southern suburbs may see as much as 4-5". The downtowns and close-in suburbs (Maplewood, Edina and Bloomington) will pick up closer to 3" of snow, just (barely) enough to shovel and plow in many neighborhoods. Snowfall amounts increase as you drive south on I-35 Tuesday night, with the axis of heaviest snow from Northfield and Lake City into portions of northern and central Wisconsin.

Summary: the first accumulating snow event of the season is shaping up for a relatively narrow swath of the Upper Midwest late Tuesday and Tuesday night. The average date of the first 1"+ snowfall in the Twin Cities is November 18, so this is coming about 2 weeks ahead of schedule. That said, there is no evidence that we're heading into a persistently snow or bitter pattern, in fact guidance shows warmer and drier conditions for much of the USA (east of the Rockies) into the third week of November. We'll keep an eye on the maps and keep you posted.
Much Of America Is Snow-Free. Granted, it's only the 5th day of November, but there's precious little snow, even over far northern Minnesota and Wisconsin and northern New England. The Northern Rockies have seen significant snow, but as of yesterday snow was on the ground over 7.6% of the USA. Map: NOAA.
Close Encounter With Winter - Then Milder. After a period of slushy snow tonight and a chilly Wednesday we warm up (slightly) into the weekend. The first half of next week may feel more like the 3rd week of October with highs in the upper 40s to near 50F, before a rapid cool-down next Wednesday. ECMWF data via Weatherspark.

Mild Bias Into Third Week Of November? NOAA's NAEFS model shows unusually mild weather from November 12-18 east of the Rockies, some of the biggest temperature anomalies I've ever seen over Canada's Arctic region.
A Real Indian Summer? GFS guidance shows 50s, even a shot at low 60s around November 17-19. We'll see, but I don't see any extended periods of bitter air looking out into the 3rd week of November as a zonal (west to east) flow dominates the weather pattern across the USA.
New Radar Could Save Lives When Spring Storms Hit DFW. Here's an interesting story about the new "CASA" Doppler coming on line, and the potential it has to significantly improve resolution and timing, especially with tornadoes, hail and flash flooding. Here's a clip from The Star-Telegram: "...The radar makes once-a-minute scans of storms instead of the usual five minutes and provides higher-resolution images and multiple overlapping views of storm cells, said Brenda Phillips, a co-leader of the project developed by the Engineering Research Center for Collaborative Adaptive Sensing of the Atmosphere. Because of Earth’s curvature, Doppler radar can’t observe the lower atmosphere, but CASA can scan down to about 250 feet above ground, Phillips said. That will afford meteorologists a new vantage point, Bradshaw said. “This is going to enable us, really for the first time, to get lower in the storms with higher resolution,” Bradshaw said. He also expects better rainfall estimates because the radar can illuminate finer features in a storm, which should also allow for more pinpoint flash flood warnings..."
In Rim Fire's Aftermath, A New Worry Emerges: Water. Here's a clip from an article at The Los Angeles Times: "...After two dry years, officials would welcome rain and snow, but they shudder at the thought of a storm that drops too much at once. Scientists predict that 15 minutes to an hour of intense rainfall — the type of storm that happens about every 10 years — would be enough to unleash a slurry of boulders, fine mud and brush. Normally, rain bounces off trees and brush, slowly percolating through the soil. But after a fire, the earth sits unprotected and, if severely burned, can even repel water. With fewer twigs, leaves and vegetation to slow down the water, it picks up speed and flows over the soil in sheets..."

File photo above: "This Aug. 24, 2013 file photo shows firefighter John Curtis, of Big Bear, Calif., watching the Rim Fire burn near Yosemite National Park, Calif. Starvation, poverty, flooding, heat waves, droughts, war and disease already lead to human tragedies. They're likely to worsen as the world warms from man-made climate change, a leaked draft of an international scientific report forecasts. For North America, the highest risks over the long term are from wildfires, heat waves and flooding."
The Chinese Are Anxious Over The Future. No, we're hardly the only ones who are paranoid. Here's a snippet from a story that caught my eye at The Washington Post: "...Last Tuesday the sun, when visible, was an eerie orange disc behind the smog. People in Beijing and many other cities won’t let their children play outside for fear of the poisoned air, and they worry too about poisoned rivers and adulterated foods. Again, the party pledges reform. Again, it’s hard to know whether reform can succeed as long as well-connected polluters need not fear the law. China needs to transition from a catch-up, copy-cat economy to one that innovates. But can you have unbridled innovation in a society where the media are controlled, books are censored, and bloggers, while much freer, are punished or silenced if they stray too far?"

File photo above: "A man pushes a bike onto a bridge during a day of heavy pollution in Harbin in northeast China's Heilongjiang province Monday Oct. 21, 2013. Visibility shrank to less than half a football field and small-particle pollution soared to a record 40 times higher than an international safety standard in the northern Chinese city as the region entered its high-smog season." (AP Photo).
First Impressions: iPad Air. Gizmag.com has the review; here's a snippet: "...Physically, the iPad Air is like a big iPad mini. The first time I picked it up, it provided the same kind of "Holy crap, that's light" moment as when I first used the mini. The iPad Air is almost 30 percent lighter than last year's iPad, and you really feel the difference. I thought the iPad 4 felt like a heavy brick next to the iPad mini. With the Air, that playing field has been leveled. I can hold it very comfortably with one hand, something I could previously only say about the mini..."

Climate Stories....
  • PwC: "Twenty of the 30 most costly insured catastrophes worldwide from 1970 to 2011 have occurred since 2001. With the exception of the 9/11 terrorist attacks, they were all natural disasters."
  • Munich Re: The number of weather-related loss events in North America over the last three decades has "nearly quintupled."
  • Swiss Re: Large-scale weather events in 2012 led to the "third highest insured losses since 1970," adding up to $71 billion worldwide from natural catastrophes.
Credit: Media Matters, more details here.

Power Plants Try Burning Wood With Coal To Cut Carbon Emissions. Here's a clip from an interesting story at The New York Times: "Even as the Environmental Protection Agency considers requiring existing coal-fired power plants to cut their carbon dioxide output, some utilities have started to use a decidedly low-tech additive that accomplishes that goal: wood. Ranging in size from sawdust to chunks as big as soup cans, waste wood from paper mills, furniture factories and logging operations has been used with varying levels of success. Minnesota Power, which once generated almost all of its power from coal and is now trying to convert to one-third renewables and one-third natural gas, found that co-firing with wood was a quick way to move an old plant partly to the renewable category..."

Photo credit above: American Electric Power. "Using modest amounts of wood at a large number of coal plants could be a relatively quick way to phase in renewable energy."
Will Climate Change Imperil Your Cup Of Starbucks? Oh no, not the coffee. Take anything but please leave me a few feeble coffee beans to spend my "mature years". We'll see - here's an excerpt from an entry at National Geographic: "...To the relief and potential horror of caffeine addicts everywhere, Feeley said, “To see species move upslope, that means they are responding to climate change. So that’s a good thing. Because if they don’t respond, they are almost certainly doomed to extinction.” So, could coffee become an imperiled species, threatened by the steady march of climate change? It’s too soon to tell, but in remembering that jungle conversation I had in southern Peru last summer, I found some clues in Justin Gillis’ page-one story in The New York Times on Nov. 2 under the headline: “Climate Change Seen Posing Risk To Food Supplies...”
Shell Announces Plans To Resume Arctic Drilling In 2014. Here's the intro to a story at oilprices.com: "After a disastrous campaign in 2012, which forced the company to abandon all plans for this year, Royal Dutch Shell has announced that it will return to the Arctic waters in 2014 to begin exploring for oil again, but on a much smaller scale. One of the main differences this time will be the abandonment of the Kulluk conical drilling rig that ran aground last time as Shell tried to toe it back to Port near the end of the 2012 drilling season. As a replacement Shell has leased out the Polar Pioneer, a semi-submersible drilling rig owned by Transocean. The Kulluk may well be put back into operation at some other point in the future, but only if it is deemed cost effective to repair the damaged unit..."

Photo credit above: "Kulluk rig."
Ten Days: How We Imagine Climate Change. The role of aerosols is coming under increasing scrutiny. Some of that air pollution may actually be preventing an even sharper spike in temperatures, worldwide. Here's a clip from a story at Australia's The Conversation: "...But here’s the twist. If all emissions were to stop tomorrow, so would the output of those human-made aerosols reflecting radiation back into space. These aerosols have a residence time in the atmosphere of just ten days, meaning that after just ten days it would be like increasing CO2 emissions by 50%. It kind of makes reducing CO2 emissions to 5% off 2000 levels by 2020 seem rather pathetic. Ten days, a time-horizon that people in the city should be able to relate to. If this were to happen, the likelihood of the positive feedbacks that are triggered by warming, such as more abundant water vapour, natural albedo loss (like melting ice an glaciers), extensive firestorms, and methane pulses, would be greatly enhanced..."

Photo credit above: "Aerosols such as this smog over Mexico City have helped keep temperatures down. What would happen if they were cleaned up?" Flickr/brian.gratwicke.
Media Ignore Climate Change On Hurricane Sandy Anniversary. Here's an excerpt from Media Matters: "CNN and Fox News devoted massive coverage to the one-year anniversary of Superstorm Sandy, but both networks omitted any mention of climate change in their reporting despite its likely role in the extreme nature and devastation of the event. Though it is difficult to determine just how much of Sandy's unprecedented destruction can be directly linked to climate change, climate scientists agree that higher tides produced by global warming exacerbated flooding from the storm, and hurricane severity is expected to increase as sea levels continue to rise. Unlike Fox and CNN, several MSNBC segments about the Sandy anniversary mentioned climate change. But overall, just under 8 percent of segments on the top cable news networks mentioned climate change in their anniversary coverage..."
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