An Early September For Northern USA? (record heat gripping much of the northern hemisphere)

Dog Day-free August?

I get some of my best weather nuggets at the local Caribou drive-thru. "Thanks for this weather Paul" the nice lady preparing my caffeine injection sighs. I shrug. "You're welcome?" She goes on to regale me with tales of low humidity and fresh breezes keeping the bug count down. "My relatives are haying right now - they sure don't miss the heat and humidity!" Nor do I.

Greenland just hit a record 80F, parts of China are embroiled in the worst heat in 140 years. No, I'm not mourning the Dog Days either.

The maps suggest two Septembers in a row, Canada burping one comfortable airmass after another into mid-August. Beyond that the crystal ball gets murky, but as my favorite college meteorology professor liked to say, "don't fight the trends."

A reinforcing pulse of cool air arrives today on a north breeze, highs in the 70s with a dew point near 50F. Typical for September 6. A T-shower may pop Sunday PM into Tuesday; a more vigorous cool front next Friday, when "highs" may hold in the 60s up north.

Skies clear and mellow the weekend of August 10-11; highs push into the 70s. Think of this as "Summer Lite" - without all the unpleasant (sticky, biting, thundery) side effects.

Ideal Conditions For Tour de Tonka. Every now and then the planets align and the weather cooperates for a big outdoor event. Such will be the case today for Tour de Tonka - blue sky, low humidity, just enough of a breeze to keep you from breaking out into a sweat. When you consider we could be broiling in the 90s or dodging severe T-storms, there shouldn't be too many complaints about the weather.

Good Day For A Bike Ride (Or Race). Here is NOAA's hour by hour forecast for the west metro, showing temperatures rising through the upper 50s and 60s, reaching 70F by 11 AM, a light north breeze at 5-12 mph, dew points near 51F.

Back To The 70s. 90s? Are you kidding? Not a Dog Day in sight, in fact 80s may be rare in the weeks ahead, a slight chance of topping 80F by Tuesday. The best chance of showers and T-showers: Sunday night into Tuesday. Long-range ECMWF guidance is hinting at more showers next weekend.

Weather Map: Midday Today. The soggy remains of "Dorian" may brush Florida with a few heavy T-storms, but the heaviest rains remain offshore. Showers and T-storms are likely from the Ohio Valley and Mid South into South Dakota, cool, comfortable air over the Great Lakes and Upper Midwest. Map credit: UCAR.

Weather Map: Sunday Morning. The approach of slightly warmer air will set off a healthy smear of showers and storms across the Dakotas, reaching the Twin Cities late Sunday or Sunday night. A holding pattern continues, showers and T-storms flaring up along a virtually stationary fron stretching from the Plains to the Carolinas.

Atmospheric Scuffle. NOAA HPC prints out a big, sloppy bulls-eye over Missouri and northern Arkansas, where 3-5" rains are possible by Thursday. Meanwhile the western USA remains dry; conditions very favorable for more wildfires in the weeks to come.

First Perseids Of 2013. Spaceweather.com has a great update on the biggest meteor shower of the year. With unusually clear skies, good visibility and low dew points you may have a better chance that most (Augusts) to see a few lucky shooting stars in the next 1-2 weeks. Here's an excerpt: "Earth is entering a broad stream of debris from comet 109P/Swift-Tuttle, source of the annual Perseid meteor shower. Although the shower won't peak until August 12-13, when Earth hits the densest part of the stream, the first Perseids are already arriving. "Despite poor weather over our network of meteor cameras, we have detected six Perseid fireballs since July 30th," reports Bill Cooke, head of NASA's Meteoroid Environment Office. He made this plot showing the orbits of the meteoroids."

Graphic credit above: "In the diagram, the green lines trace the orbits of Perseid meteoroids. All six intersect Earth (the blue dot). The orbit of the parent comet is color-coded purple. An inset shows one of the fireballs shining almost as brightly as the Moon: video."

Dorian's Remnants, Saharan Dust, And Record Heat In Alaska, Greenland, The U.K. And China. Talk about a mixed-up weather map; I guess we should be counting our atmospheric blessings. Much of the southern and western USA continues to bake, unusual warmth reaching unusually far north, but the heating is anything but uniform. In today's edition of Climate Matters we track the soggy remains of "Dorian", link African dust to fewer tropical storms, and highlight some of the more unusual warm weather records: "Dorian is brushing the eastern coast of Florida, but other than that the Atlantic is pretty quiet. Could it have anything to do with Saharan Dust? Then there are the heat records where you might least it expect it. WeatherNation Chief Meteorologist shows us where the warmth is around the globe. Pop Quiz: Which one of the following three cities was the warmest Thursday? Fairbanks, Los Angeles or New York City. Watch the video and see if you're right."

August Cloud Cover. Here's another snippet from a comprehensive look at August climatology in the Twin Cities, courtesy of WeatherSpark. Yes, August tends to be (much) sunnier and drier than June and July, better odds of getting your outdoor events in: "The fraction of time spent in each of the five sky cover categories. From top (most blue) to bottom (most gray), the categories are clear, mostly clear, partly cloudy, mostly cloudy, and overcast. Pink indicates missing data. Outside of the United States clear skies are often reported ambiguously, leading them to be lumped in with the missing data."

Worst Heat Wave In At Least 140 Years Hits Parts Of China; Dozens Of Deaths Reported. Here are a few excerpts from an AP story at Fox News: "...On Tuesday, the director of the China Meteorological Administration activated a "level 2" emergency response to the persistent heat wave. This level requires around-the-clock staffing, the establishment of an emergency command center and frequent briefings. Some Chinese in heat-stricken cities have been cooking shrimps, eggs and bacon in skillets placed directly on manhole covers or on road pavement that has in some cases heated up to 60 degrees C (140 F)...In the port city of Ningbo in Zhejiang province, glass has cracked in the heat, vehicles have self-combusted, and a highway billboard caught fire by itself, sending up black smoke in the air, according to China Central Television. The broadcaster said the heat might have shorted an electrical circuit on the billboard..."

File photo credit above: "A visitor who has his top off tries to cool off in the afternoon heat at the Bund, one of the most popular tourist spots in the city, in Shanhai, China." (AP Photo/Eugene Hoshiko).

Rethinking Flood Insurance As Toll Rises. Because in light of the trends: more numerous, extreme (and expensive) flooding disasters, the current model may be unsustainable. Here's the intro to an Op-Ed at livescience.com: "As society looks toward a future with rising sea levels and more frequent and severe storms, the United States can also expect to see more frequent and severe flooding along rivers and coastlines. That means property owners will increasingly turn to the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) and its National Flood Insurance Program to bail them out. But why does the federal government underwrite 5.6 million flood insurance policies — in many cases at highly subsidized rates?..."

Photo credit above: "The storm surge from Hurricane Sandy leaves much of Chincoteague National Wildlife Refuge in Maryland under water, including this boat ramp along the Assateague Channel, on Monday, Oct. 29, 2012." Credit: J.Fair/USFWS.

South America Might Soon Be Covered In Thousands Of Tons Of Dust From The Sahara Desert. Dust which may be reducing the odds of hurricane formation over the Atlantic, btw. Quartz has the story (and amazing NOAA visualization); here's a clip: "In the next couple of days, South Americans could get a taste of Africa without even stepping on a plane. That’s because powerful winds over the continent are lifting up thousands of tons of dust from the Sahara Desert, and moving it 5,000-or-so miles over the Atlantic Ocean toward northern Brazil, Venezuela, Colombia and other places around the Caribbean Sea. The great migration of desert granules is in fact a “quite common” occurrence, according to NOAA, raising the startling thought that the dust in our eyes on a windy day could’ve once been stuck in a camel’s foot pad. This most recent movement of grit is somewhat special, though, in that it’s much more concentrated than usual. By Friday and the weekend, it will be flying over South and Central America, with urban areas in its possible path including Caracas, Bogotá, Panama City, Port-au-Prince, and San Juan in Puerto Rico..."

 

Workplace Bullies Target The Unattractive. So this is why so many people are picking on me at work. And it's my company! The nerve. Here's an excerpt from an article at The Wall Street Journal: "More evidence that there’s little difference between the office and a high school cafeteria: workplace bullies tend to pick on colleagues who are considered unattractive, according to a new study. Researchers Timothy Judge of the University of Notre Dame in Indiana and Brent Scott of Michigan State University surveyed 114 workers at a health-care facility to find out how often coworkers bullied them. Bullying was defined as acting rudely, teasing or saying hurtful statements. Separately, other participants viewed digital photos of the health-care workers, grading their attractiveness. Workers whose photos were graded as unattractive tended to be more likely to have reported being subjected to rude or even cruel treatment by coworkers, said Dr. Judge..." (Image credit here).

Climate Stories....

America's Dangerous Pipelines. Generating electricity comes with inherent levels of risk (with the possible exception of solar and photo voltaic). In the ongoing controversy over the proposed Keystone XL Pipeline I thought I'd share this video animation and explanation from The Center For Biological Diversity. is the upside worth the risk? "This time-lapse video shows pipeline incidents from 1986 to 2013, relying on publicly available data from the federal Pipeline and Hazardous Materials Safety Administration. Only incidents classified as “significant” by the agency are shown in the video. “Significant” incidents include those in which someone was hospitalized or killed, damages amounted to more than $50,000, more than 5 barrels of highly volatile substances or 50 barrels of other liquid were released, or where the liquid exploded or burned. According to the data, since 1986 there have been nearly 8,000 incidents (nearly 300 per year on average), resulting in more than 500 deaths (red dots on the video), more than 2,300 injuries (yellow dots on the video), and nearly $7 billion in damage.  Since 1986 pipeline accidents have spilled an average of 76,000 barrels per year or more than 3 million gallons. This is equivalent to 200 barrels every day..."

Data Source: U.S. Department of Transportation Pipeline and Hazardous Materials Safety Administration.

Climate Change Occurring 10 Times Faster Than At Any Time In Past 65 Million Years. Phys.org has the story - here's a clip: "The planet is undergoing one of the largest changes in climate since the dinosaurs went extinct. But what might be even more troubling for humans, plants and animals is the speed of the change. Stanford climate scientists warn that the likely rate of change over the next century will be at least 10 times quicker than any climate shift in the past 65 million years. If the trend continues at its current rapid pace, it will place significant stress on terrestrial ecosystems around the world, and many species will need to make behavioral, evolutionary or geographic adaptations to survive..."

Graphic credit above: "Top: The change in annual temperature projected for the late 21st century using simulations from 27 global climate models. The change is calculated as the 2081-2100 mean minus the 1986-2005 mean. Bottom: the velocity of climate change required to maintain the current annual temperature should the late-21st-century climate change occur. The velocity is calculated for each location by identifying the closest location in the future climate that has the same annual temperature as the starting location has in the present climate." Credit: Noah Diffenbaugh.

Climate Change Becoming A Defining Issue For Young Voters Nationwide. Huffington Post has the details; here's an excerpt: "The politics of climate change is shifting, and politicians -- particularly Republicans -- are going to need to make some quick decisions. Whether it's record heat waves, wildfires, floods or storms, the impacts of climate change are taking hold nearly every day. Our way of life is being violently transformed, and Americans are taking notice, especially younger voters whose future is at stake. And this could have a big impact at the ballot box. LCV recently released a bipartisan poll showing that young voters across the country are concerned about climate change and support federal action to address it. It also showed that young people soundly reject the false choice between economic prosperity and action on climate change that many climate change deniers hide behind. And a solid majority in our poll said they are willing to hold accountable those who ignore the problem, going so far as to describe climate change deniers as "ignorant" and "out-of-touch." In fact, 73 percent of young voters said they are less likely to vote for someone who opposes President Obama's landmark plan on climate change..."

Image courtesy of Forecast The Facts.

Top: The change in annual temperature projected for the late 21st century using simulations from 27 global climate models. The change is calculated as the 2081-2100 mean minus the 1986-2005 mean. Bottom: The velocity of climate change required to maintain the current annual temperature should the late-21st-century climate change occur. The velocity is calculated for each location by identifying the closest location in the future climate that has the same annual temperature as the starting location has in the present climate. Credit: Noah Diffenbaugh

Read more at: http://phys.org/news/2013-08-climate-faster-million-years.html#jCp

The planet is undergoing one of the largest changes in climate since the dinosaurs went extinct. But what might be even more troubling for humans, plants and animals is the speed of the change. Stanford climate scientists warn that the likely rate of change over the next century will be at least 10 times quicker than any climate shift in the past 65 million years.

Read more at: http://phys.org/news/2013-08-climate-faster-million-years.html#jCp

The planet is undergoing one of the largest changes in climate since the dinosaurs went extinct. But what might be even more troubling for humans, plants and animals is the speed of the change. Stanford climate scientists warn that the likely rate of change over the next century will be at least 10 times quicker than any climate shift in the past 65 million years.

Read more at: http://phys.org/news/2013-08-climate-faster-million-years.html#jC

Hot Under The Collar: Study Says For Every Degree Warmer, Risk Of Violent Crime, War, Inches Up. Here's a clip from an AP story at Newser.com: "As the world gets warmer, people are more likely to get hot under the collar, scientists say. A massive new study finds that aggressive acts like committing violent crimes and waging war become more likely with each added degree. Researchers analyzed 60 studies on historic empire collapses, recent wars, violent crime rates in the United States, lab simulations that tested police decisions on when to shoot and even cases where pitchers threw deliberately at batters in baseball. They found a common thread over centuries: Extreme weather _ very hot or dry _ means more violence. The authors say the results show strong evidence that climate can promote conflict. "When the weather gets bad we tend to be more willing to hurt other people," said economist Solomon Hsiang of the University of California, Berkeley. He is the lead author of the study, published online Thursday by the journal Science. Experts in the causes of war gave it a mixed reception..."

Hotter Weather Actually Makes Us Want To Kill Each Other. Here's a slightly different perspective on the new research finding from The Atlantic: "Farmers in Brazil are more likely to invade each others' land in years that are particularly wet or unusually dry. Americans honk their horns more at other cars when it's hot outside. Countries in the tropics are more likely to have civil wars in years that are especially hot or dry. They may seem random, but actually, these events are all connected. New research from Princeton University and UC Berkeley published today in Science reveals a link between big shifts in climate and precipitation and a rise in interpersonal violence, institutional breakdown, and especially inter-group violence, such as war. Not only does the paper shed light on past bouts of global conflict, it also offers a warning about the future. The world is expected to warm by at least 2 degrees Celsius over the next few decades, unless governments do something drastic, and the researchers say that increased bloodshed could be a serious side-effect of that trend..."

Consider Signing The Petition. Details on Google's recent fund-raiser for James Inhofe and an online petition can be found here.

GOP Lawmakers Hit By Weather Tragedies Stay Mum On Climate Change. InsideClimate News has the story - here's a clip: "..."I've lived in my part of Arizona my whole life," Grijalva, 65, said in an interview. "I've never seen conditions like the ones we've had the last few years. Watching my constituents deal with the effects of climate change—the droughts, the record temperatures, the fires—how could I not make it a priority?" In the district next door to Grijalva's, however, the message being conveyed is far different. That area, represented by Paul Gosar, a Republican, is experiencing similar climate extremes. But Gosar rejects the scientific consensus that carbon dioxide from burning fossil fuel and other human activities are causing the earth to warm. And he sees no connection between climate change and the extreme weather raging in his home district—including the Yarnell wildfire, which claimed the lives of 19 firefighters in June—according to his spokesman, Orlando Watson. Gosar has voted against all climate-related legislation in the past few years..."

Photo credit above: "A home destroyed by the Yarnell Hill fire late last month, in Yarnell, Ariz., July 23, 2013. In Yarnell, where 19 members of the Granite Mountain Hotshots died in the line of duty and where the homes destroyed by fire sit next to those mysteriously spared, residents struggle to ascribe meaning to what happened." (Joshua Lott/The New York Times).

McCarthy: Climate Change Is "Opportunity Of A Lifetime". National Geographic has more on the new EPA Administrator's goals and objectives; here's an excerpt: “Let’s talk about this as an opportunity of a lifetime, because there are too many lifetimes at stake,” McCarthy said of regulating emissions, noting the EPA will work to develop a “new mindset about how climate change and environmental protection fits within our national and global economic agenda.” Although the EPA has met some opposition from industry groups and Republicans who say environmental regulation hurts the economy, McCarthy said she planned to continue issuing new rules and felt President Barack Obama’s new Climate Action Plan could “fuel the complementary goals of turning America into a magnet for new jobs and manufacturing...”

It's Climate Scientists, Not Concern Trolls, Who Champion The Scientific Method. Here's an excerpt from a post at The Guardian: "...Concern trolling, constantly getting the science wrong, and ignoring the inconvenient data all stem from the same root cause - ideological opposition to climate solutions. No matter how much effort you put into pleasing contrarians, they are not going to be part of the solution; certainly not soon enough to help us avoid high-risk climate change. But they're also a small fringe minority. We don't need everyone to be on board, just enough to create the necessary support behind climate solutions. Pandering to ABC concern troll contrarians is wasted time that would be better spent communicating climate change risks to truly open minded skeptical people. Elevating contrarians with false praise for accepting that the moon isn't made of cheese certainly isn't going to help solve the problem."

"Aug-tember" Northern USA While Southwest Bakes (potential for a record wildfire season out west)

"Aug-tember"

If this keeps up I may have to fly to Greenland, or possibly Fairbanks, Alaska to warm up. 30 days above 80F at Fairbanks so far this year, and counting. The same persistent kink in the jet stream steering winds pushing record warmth into Alaska and western Canada is nudging a family of cool fronts into the northern USA.

Maybe I'm getting senile - or the Doppler is frying my brain, but what's not to like about this weather pattern? Blue sky, low humidity, no severe storms churning overhead? Go ahead and unplug the A/C. You won't need it looking out the next 2 weeks.

While wildfires rage out west and persistent T-storms soak the south some of the best weather in America will be floating overhead into the weekend. A reinforcing puff of Canadian air may spark a lonely shower tonight, but a dry sky spills over into the weekend, highs in the mid to upper 70s. No drama.

Showers & T-storms return early next week, followed by another swipe of September-like air late next week. If you're heading north you'll need a few sweatshirts.

Keep the cool fronts in perspective. In my weather blog (below): U.S. wildfires in 2012 burned an area greater than New Jersey, Delaware & Connecticut combined.

2013 will be worse.

"...At a Senate hearing in June, United States Forest Service Chief Thomas Tidwell testified that the average wildfire today burns twice as many acres as it did 40 years ago. "In 2012, over 9.3 million acres burned in the United States," he said – an area larger than New Jersey, Connecticut and Delaware combined..." - from a Rolling Stone article; details below. Image: NOAA.

In Search Of The Dog Days. More like puppy days - fairly anemic warmth (maybe a few low 80s early next week?) but certainly nothing that would qualify as "hot" looking out 1-2 weeks. A few showers and T-storms are possible by Monday and Tuesday, another push of cooler air toward the end of next week, when highs may hold in the 60s up north. ECMWF highs above in Celsius. But you probably already figure that out.

Saturday Jet. 500 mb winds midday Saturday show a weak split flow over North America, a very active northern branch to the steering winds guiding record warmth into Alaska and western Canada, while unusually chilly air over eastern Canada breaks off little chunks, keeping the Upper Midwest, Great Lakes and New England cooler than average for early August. Meanwhile the southwest continues to bake. Map credit: Weather Bell.

5-Day Rainfall Outlook. The latest NOAA QPF into next Wednesday shows a big, wet bulls-eye over Kansas City, where some 3-4" rains are predicted. Heavy showers and T-storms flare up along the boundary separating cooler, Canadian air over the northern tier states from blast-furnace heat over the south and west. The tropics are still quiet.

Who Turned Off The Heat? The map above shows a week's worth of 24 hour records: rainfall records, highs and lows as well; over 2,000 between July 25 and August 2. Map above courtesy of Ham Weather. Here's a breakdown:

Total Records:	2131
Rainfall:	462
High Temp:	42
Low Temp:	563
Low Max Temp:	957
High Min Temp:	107

 

July Climate Recap. The Twin Cities ended the month slightly milder and drier than average. Details from the Twin Cities National Weather Service: "July of 2013 finished cool, but overall temperatures were near normal across the region. The big story in July was the much drier pattern for portions of the area. While the Twin Cities was near normal for precipitation, both St. Cloud and Eau Claire had significant deficits."

 

* The Minnesota State Climatology Office and DNR has a great recap of July across Minnesota here.

 

 

Fickle July Rainfall Pattern. Last month was wetter than average from the southwest suburbs of the Twin Cities to Albert Lea, and across much of the northern third of Minnesota. The driest pockets: western Wisconsin, far southwest Minnesota and portions of the Red River Valley. Map: Midwest Regional Climate Center.

Dew Point Trends In August. Here's more potentially interesting information on August weather trends in the Twin Cities, courtesy of WeatherSpark: "Dew point is often a better measure of how comfortable a person will find the weather than relative humidity because it more directly relates to whether perspiration will evaporate from the skin, thereby cooling the body. Lower dew points feel drier and higher dew points feel more humid. Over the course of a typical August, the dew point typically varies from 53°F (very comfortable) to 68°F (muggy) and is rarely below 46°F (dry) or above 75°F (very muggy)."

Heading Into Peak Wildfire Season And Tinder-Dry In The West. I have a bad feeling about the potential for more major fires out west in the coming months. The trends are unmistakable, and much of the west (much) drier than average for early August. This sets the stage for potentially explosive fires during peak season, which runs from late August into October. In today's edition of Climate Matters we look at why conditions are ripe for another active and potentially destructive year of (larger, more destructive) fires out west: "Rainless in Seattle for July? Yes, many areas in the west had their driest July on record. Not good news for the outlook for Western wildfires. WeatherNation Chief Meteorologist Paul Douglas looks at why wildfires are larger and more extreme than 40 years ago."

August Significant Wildfire Potential. Here's an explanation from The National Weather Service Western Region HQ: "NIFC Predictive Services has updated their Significant Wildland Fire Potential Outlook for August through November 2013. Significant fire potential remains above normal for a large portion of the Pacific Northwest and the mountains of California. The executive summary can be found here: http://go.usa.gov/jPJJ"

Greenland Soars To It's Highest Temperature Ever Recorded, Almost 80F. The Capital Weather Gang has the story - here's a clip: "The Danish Meteorological Institute is reporting that on Tuesday, July 30, the mercury rose to 25.9 C (78.6 F) at a station in Greenland, the highest temperature measured in the Arctic country since records began in 1958. The balmy reading was logged at the observing station Maniitsoq / Sugar Loaf, which is on Greenland’s southwest coast, the DMI reports. It exceeded the 25.5 C (77.9 F) reading taken at  Kangerlussuaq on July 27, 1990, in the same general area. Mantiitsoq is Greenland’s sixth-largest town, with a 2010 population of 2,784..."

Graphic credit above: "Weather pattern responsible for record warmth in southwest Greenland." (Danish Meteorological Institute).

China Swelters In Record Heat Wave. Details from globalnews.ca: "It’s been so hot in China that folks are grilling shrimp on manhole covers, eggs are hatching without incubators and a highway billboard has mysteriously caught fire by itself. The heat wave – the worst in at least 140 years in some parts – has left dozens of people dead and pushed thermometers above 40 degrees C (104 F) in at least 40 cities and counties, mostly in the south and east. Authorities for the first time have declared the heat a “level 2″ weather emergency- a label normally invoked for typhoons and flooding..."

Photo credit above: "In this photo taken on Wednesday, July 31, 2013, a child demonstrates how raw shrimp and an egg are fried in a pan on a manhole cover on a hot summer day in Jinan in east China's Shandong province. It’s been so hot in China that folks are grilling shrimp on manhole covers, eggs are hatching without incubators and a highway billboard has mysteriously caught fire by itself. The heat  wave — the worst in at least 140 years in some parts — has left dozens of people dead and pushed thermometers above 40 degrees C (104 F) in at least 40 cities and counties, mostly in the south and east." ( AP Photo)

Alaska Heat Wave: Anchorage Sets Record For Most Consecutive 70-Degree Days. My good friend and meteorologist Jason Samenow has the details at The Washington Post's Capital Weather Gang; here's an excerpt: "...In addition to the record-breaking 70-degree streak, Anchorage is closing in on the most 70-degree days logged over an entire summer.  It has 38 so far, compared to the record of 49 from 2004. To its north, Fairbanks has also been unseasonably warm.    Reports the Associated Press: [T]emperatures Monday reached 80 or higher for the 29th day this summer. The record is 30 days of 80 degrees or higher, set in 2004. Consider Fairbanks averages just 11 80-degree days per summer (compared to this year’s 29, already)..."

Photo credit above: "Kan Kil floats face-first in the cool waters of Campbell Creek, near Lake Otis Parkway, while beating the heat on Tuesday, July 30, 2013. Anchorage broke a record on Tuesday for hitting 70 degrees or more for the 14th straight day." (AP Photo/Anchorage Daily News, Bill Roth)

More unusual weather across the USA. Too hot across Utah:

Meanwhile it's too dry over much of the Pacific Northwest, including Washington State:

Tell that to residents of Oklahoma City:

Saharan Dust Discouraging Tropical Storm Formation. There's probably a good reason why tropical development has slowed in recent weeks - too much wind shear, and too much dust from Africa. The Baltimore Sun has a good explanation about what's really going on; here's an excerpt: "The peak of hurricane season is approaching later this month, but storm activity in the middle of the Atlantic is unlikely to develop during the first half of August because of a massive cloud of dust from the Sahara Desert moving across the ocean. Satellite images from earlier this week (shown above) revealed a burst of dust blowing westward off of Africa. NASA Global Hawk aircraft were scheduled to explore the dust further on Tuesday. Saharan dust can significantly discourage tropical cyclone formation in the Atlantic, according to National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration scientists. It typically brings dry air that is not conducive to storm development, and some studies have suggested the dust itself has an effect on cloud formation..."

Image credit above: Ham Weather.

 

Rare UK Tsunami Was Caused By A Storm. This one made me do a double-take; details from the UK's Planet Earth Online: "The meteotsunami, which reached around half a metre in height was originally thought to have been caused by a landslide. But a new report, published in Weather, suggests the origin actually lay with some thundery storm cells with a starting point over 300 miles away in the Bay of Biscay. Weather tsunamis like this have been known to occur in the Mediterranean, where they can cause significant damage to coastal infrastructure, and in Japan where they have been known to result in death. But this wave travelled from Portugal to Brittany and then into the English Channel, making it the first meteotsunami to be positively identified in Britain, Spain and France..."

Japan Prepares For 9-Magnitude Earthquake And Tsunami. A "9" on the Richter scale is almost unimaginable, but Japan is taking it seriously. Business Insurance has the story: "The Japanese government expects a 9-magnitude earthquake to hit the Nankai trough in the southern Pacific side of the main Honshu island followed by a tsunami, reported Channel News Asia. These calamities are expected to kill up to 320,000 people and cause economic damage of more than $2.2 trillion, worse than the March 2011 earthquake and tsunami. Several cities and towns are preparing for the worst-case scenario, and the government is looking to come up with an action plan by the end of July to mitigate risk of fatalities.."

File photo above: The Telegraph.

Cost Of Storm Damage Will Rise Sharply, Even Without Climate Change. Some of this comes down to demographic trends, more people wanting to live near water (oceans and rivers that often flood). Here's a clip from a story at Scientific American: " Extreme weather could cause four times as much economic loss in the U.S. by 2050 as it does today—without any increase in the frequency or intensity of hurricanes, tornadoes or lightning. That is because the population will be larger and richer and because more Americans are moving to the Eastern seaboard, the Gulf Coast and other storm-ridden places. The frequency of natural hazards varies across the country (top), but nationwide, average annual losses from all of them over the past 50 years amounted to $10 billion to $13 billion (not including business disruption). By 2050 the price tag will double in many counties, and in some it will swell by four or six times or more (bottom), according to Benjamin L. Preston, deputy director of the Climate Change Science Institute at Oak Ridge National Laboratory. The highest increases will be driven mostly by rising population. If society is concerned about future risk, Preston says, it has to pay closer attention to where people are migrating..."

NOAA's New Supercomputers Mean Better Storm Tracking, Officials Say. Here are some specifics on NOAA's new supercomputer upgrade. I'm hoping that GFS and the new HWRF hurricane model outperform ECMWF. Here's a clip from Nature World News: "...These upgrades are a game-changer for the entire public and private weather industry," Louis W. Uccellini, director of NOAA's National Weather Service, said in a press release. "In addition to the benefits to our own forecasters and products, we will provide our private sector partners with better information to empower them to enhance their services." Nicknamed "Tide," the supercomputer located in Reston, Va., along with its Orlando-based backup named "Gyre," are operating with 213 teraflops (TF), versus the 90 TF with which is operated at. As a result, the National Weather Service can now implement an enhanced Hurricane Weather Research and Forecasting (HWRF) model that, according to US Sen. Bill Nelson, could save lives..."

Wind Farms Get More Accurate Weather Forecasts. Urbantimes.com has an interesting story with a local angle; here's an excerpt: "When you’re running an electricity grid, the more renewable power you have in your mix, the more you fear unexpected ‘wind ramp events’. Tornadoes, ice storms or other extreme weather events can interrupt the spin of wind turbines, so that you have to ramp up baseload generation to meet demand. Highly-tuned next-day probabilistic forecasts for each precise location would let you integrate wind power more aggressively into your supply-side balancing act. Which is just what US utility Xcel Energy will be getting from the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR). Under a new two-year programme, a variational Doppler radar analysis system will combine radar data with computer simulations to forecast the weather conditions for individual wind farms. Xcel’s regional control centres can integrate these forecasts with a growing body of data on past output performance, for a much better indication of how much power the grid can count on from a source..."

Photo credit above: Robert East.

Be Careful What You Plug Into Google. Just the right (wrong) combination of search keywords, and you too may find agents showing up at your front door, especially if you Google "pressure cookers". Here's an excerpt from a must-read story at medium.com: "...But my son’s reading habits combined with my search for a pressure cooker and my husband’s search for a backpack set off an alarm of sorts at the joint terrorism task force headquarters. That’s how I imagine it played out, anyhow. Lots of bells and whistles and a crowd of task force workers huddled around a computer screen looking at our Google history..."

* Then again the whole pressure cooker/Google story may have been made up, according to The Washington Post. I'm still going to be careful what I plug into Google, just in case.

Researcher: U.S. To Devour More Media Digitally Than On TV. CNET News has the story; here's a clip: "...Average time spent with digital media per day will surpass TV-viewing time for the first time this year, researcher eMarketer estimated in a report Thursday. That's largely because the total amount of time spent with media has increased every year, though daily digital media consumption is expected to rise 16 percent this year versus a slight decline in TV consumption of less than 3 percent. Most of the increase in digital viewing is on mobile devices, which are quickly becoming the go-to place to watch entertainment. According to the estimates, the average U.S. adult will spend 5 hours and 9 minutes a day online on nonvoice mobile activities or with other digital media this year, compared to 4 hours and 31 minutes watching television..."

Image credit above: Sarah Tew/CNET.

* NPR reports on the dwindling handful of countries around the world that don't have a McDonalds. How do the locals survive in places like Cambodia?

California To Get America's Fastest High-Speed Rain Line. So maybe in a few years we'll catch up to the Europeans and Japanese? Encouraging news from gizmag.com; here's an excerpt: "When people grumble about how they think the US isn’t as technologically advanced as it should be, they like to bring up bullet trains – Europe and Asia have them, so why doesn’t America? Well, it’s getting one. Work is starting this summer on a high-speed rail line running from San Francisco to Los Angeles, that will carry a passenger train traveling at over 200 mph (322 km/h)..."

The Hottest Trends In Boomer Travel. Showing my age, I know. A reluctant baby boomer. Gen-X sounds like more fun, come to think of it. But my wife of 29 years and I love to travel, especially winter months (imagine that), and this story at PBS Next Avenue caught my eye; here's an excerpt: "...While it’s hard to make generalizations about 78 million individuals (especially this trailblazing demographic), pundits do point to certain trends among boomer travelers. To give you some inspiration for the 3.7 statistical trips you’ll take in the next year, here are seven of the hottest trends among our peers.

1. Ecotourism Green is the new black when it comes to vacations. The U.N. World Tourism Organization predicts there will be some 1.6 billion eco-inspired trips taken by 2020. But all operators are not created equal. It’s important to do your homework and find a company that works closely with local residents to benefit them. True ecotourism isn’t just zip-lining through the jungle. It helps the local economy and is sustainable. An important fringe benefit: Local residents come to appreciate the inherent value of their natural resources — rain forests, nature preserves, waterways, coral reefs — and realize that they must be protected and preserved..."

13+ Things You Shouldn't Eat At A Restaurant. Not my list, but an excerpt from an interesting read at Readers Digest; here's an excerpt: 

1. Meat with the Bone In

Small cuts of meat, like bone-in pork or chicken breasts, are harder to cook thoroughly because their outsides easily char. This often translates to crispy on the outside and raw on the inside. Unlike undercooked beef—say, a rare burger or a steak tartare—undercooked pork and chicken are highly dangerous and could causes food-borne illnesses.
Plus, bone-in means less meat...

Photo credit above: iStockphoto/Thinkstock.

Climate Stories...

The Great Burning: How Wildfires Are Threatening The West. No, it's not your imagination. Fire season is pretty much yearround now west of the Rockies. Here's an excerpt of an eye-opening article at Rolling Stone: "...But the United States is facing an even more basic question: How should we manage fire, given the fact that, thanks to climate change, the destruction potential for wildfires across the nation has never been greater? In the past decade alone, at least 10 states – from Alaska to Florida – have been hit by the largest or most destructive wildfires in their respective histories. Nationally, the cost of fighting fires has increased from $1.1 billion in 1994 to $2.7 billion in 2011. The line separating "fire season" from the rest of the year is becoming blurry. A wildfire that began in Colorado in early October continued smoldering into May of this year. Arizona's first wildfire of 2013 began in February, months ahead of the traditional firefighting season. A year-round fire season may be the new normal..."

Photo credit above: Gene Blevins/Reuters/Landov.

Extreme Wildfires Likely Fueled By Climate Change. Here's a summary of new research at Michigan State University: "Climate change is likely fueling the larger and more destructive wildfires that are scorching vast areas of the American West, according to new research led by Michigan State University scientists. These erratic fires are harder to contant and often result in catastrophic damage and loss of property and life. Although not analyzed in the study, the recent Arizona wildfire that began with a lightning strike and killed 19 firefighters appeared to be such an unpredictable, fast-spreading blaze, according to a state report. The MSU-led study, which appears in the Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology, predicts the trend will continue in the western United States. "Our findings suggest that future lower atmospheric conditions may favor larger and more extreme wildfires, posing an additional challenge to fire and forest management," said Lifeng Luo, MSU assistant professor of geogrphay and lead author on the study..."

Photo credit above: U.S. Air Force - Master Sgt. Jeremy Lock.

A Nation On Fire: Climate Change And The Burning Of America. Here's an excerpt from a story at Climate Progress: "...Scientists and fire experts speaking on a recent conference call organized by the Union of Concerned Scientists say the nation is moving into an era when massive and destructive wildfires of the kind that occurred only sporadically over the last century will now be a regular occurrence. “Within the next few decades we anticipate these [forest] systems being as dry on a regular basis as the major fire years of the last century,” said Anthony Westerling of the University of California, Merced. “We are now completely certain that there is a climate signal in the observed fire activity,” added Dave Cleaves, climate adviser to the head of the U.S. Forest Service. “Fire, insects, disease and moisture stress are all being linked more closely by climate change.” Wildfire statistics compiled by the National Interagency Fire Center in Boise, Idaho, offer sobering confirmation. The seven largest fire years since 1960 have all occurred since 2000. In 2006, 2007, and last year, the toll exceeded 9 million acres, an area roughly equivalent to Maryland and Rhode Island combined..."


A Republican Case For Climate Action. Here's an excerpt of an Op-Ed from former EPA administrators who served Republican presidents at The New York Times: "...There is no longer any credible scientific debate about the basic facts: our world continues to warm, with the last decade the hottest in modern records, and the deep ocean warming faster than the earth’s atmosphere. Sea level is rising. Arctic Sea ice is melting years faster than projected. The costs of inaction are undeniable. The lines of scientific evidence grow only stronger and more numerous. And the window of time remaining to act is growing smaller: delay could mean that warming becomes “locked in....”

From The New York Times: "The writers are former administrators of the Environmental Protection Agency: William D. Ruckelshaus, from its founding in 1970 to 1973, and again from 1983 to 1985; Lee M. Thomas, from 1985 to 1989; William K. Reilly, from 1989 to 1993; and Christine Todd Whitman, from 2001 to 2003."

Climate Disruption And Sea Level Rise. PRI, Public Radio International, has the story (and audio); here's a clip: "...Perhaps no consequence of global warming is more immediately dangerous than rising sea levels. Big ice sheets and glaciers in Greenland and the Antarctic are giving out and melting away to become part of the ocean. The question for climate researchers has not been whether sea levels are rising, but how fast. New research from Germany's climate research center, the Potsdam Institute, finds the rise to be about seven feet for every degree Celsius of global warming. Of course, that rise will be on a geographic timescale — perhaps thousands of years, Levermann said. Anders Levermann, lead author of the report, which was published in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, said sea level rise can be attributed to four main factors..."

Photo credit above: "A Norwegian glacier melts on August 1, 2012." (Photo by Flickr user ironpoison.)

Caribbean Has Lost 80% Of It's Coral Reef Cover In Recent Years. The Guardian has the story; here's the intro: "A major survey of the coral reefs of the Caribbean is expected to reveal the extent to which one of the world's biggest and most important reserves of coral has been degraded by climate change, pollution, overfishing and degradation. The Catlin scientific survey will undertake the most comprehensive survey yet of the state of the region's reefs, starting in Belize and moving on to Mexico, Anguilla, Barbuda, St Lucia, Turks & Caicos, Florida and Bermuda. The Catlin scientists said the state of the regions' reefs would act as an early warning of problems besetting all of the world's coral. As much as 80% of Caribbean coral is reckoned to have been lost in recent years, but the survey should give a more accurate picture of where the losses have had most effect and on the causes..."

Photo credit above: "As much as 80% of the Caribbean coral is thought to have been lost in recent years." Photograph: Catlin Seaview Survey.

Australia To Get Southern Hemisphere's Largest PV Plant. PV, as in photovoltaic. Here's a clip from gizmag.com: "With plenty of sun-drenched, wide open spaces, Australia is an obvious place for large-scale solar power plants. It would seem that large reserves of coal, oil and natural gas, have on the other hand made it difficult for the country to wean itself off fossil fuels. But renewable energy is getting a boost down-under with the announcement of two solar projects, one of which will be the largest solar photovoltaic (PV) plant in the Southern Hemisphere..."

Why The Peak Oilers Are Still Right. I don't pretend to know whether we will have abundant supplies of (affordable) fossil fuels for my kids and future grandkids, but this Grist article caught my attention; here's a clip: "...Readers who’ve seen articles and TV ads proclaiming America’s newfound oil and gas abundance may find it strange and surprising to learn that the official forecast from the U.S. Energy Information Administration is for America’s historic oil production decline to resume within this decade. But the EIA may actually be overly optimistic. Once the peak is passed, the agency foresees a long, slow slide in production from tight oil deposits (likewise from shale gas wells). However, analysis that takes into account the remaining number of possible drilling sites, as well as the high production decline rates in typical tight oil and shale gas wells, yields a different forecast: Production will indeed peak before 2020, but then it will likely fall much more rapidly than either the industry or the official agencies forecast. And there’s much more to the story: shale gas wells that cost more to drill than their gas is worth at current prices; Wall Street investment banks that drive independent oil and gas companies to produce uneconomic resources just so brokers can collect fees; official agencies that have overestimated oil production and under-estimated prices consistently for the past decade..."

Image credit above: Shutterstock.

Buffering The Sun. Is geo-engineering a prudent course of action to mitigate and diminish the negative impacts of climate change, or an example of scientific hubris which may have some very unpredictable and potentially unpleasant side effects? Check out this article at Harvard Magazine; here's a clip: "...Keith speaks candidly about the risks and uncertainties of solar geoengineering, acknowledging a range of possible outcomes. “The balance of evidence so far suggests that solar geoengineering could reduce climate risks, but early science might be wrong,” he says. “We need experiments, which might show that it does not work.” Additionally, some research suggests that sulfate aerosols may further damage the ozone layer, an issue that he says needs further study. Alan Robock, professor of environmental sciences at Rutgers, is one critic who has raised other concerns, theorizing that sunlight-blocking strategies could not only reduce the amount of electricity produced through solar power but also alter weather patterns, which might trigger widespread droughts. Keith does not find these possibilities convincing. He believes solar energy would be affected only in “extreme scenarios” with very heavy use of solar geoengineering, and he says he has not seen serious analysis that supports the possibility of drought..."

Graphic by Funnel, INC.