4th of July Heat Waves and Floods (limits of technology when dealing with nature's wrath)

Limits of Technology

We don't know as much as we think we do. Technology is a useful tool, but it's still far from foolproof, especially going up against Mother Nature, who tends to get the last laugh.

On May 31 an erratic EF-5 tornado suddenly veered northeast, killing 3 experienced tornado researchers. Earlier this week sudden, violent winds triggered by pop-up T-storms fanned the Yarnell Hills blaze, trapping 19 heroic firefighters.

Thunderstorms can do more bad than good out west, capable of "dry lightning": no rain reaches the ground, but lightning can ignite new flames. Fickle winds at the base of these storms can make it impossible to predict where the fire line will advance next.

Some of the best weather America has to offer will be floating above our heads in the coming days, a stubborn ridge of high pressure blessing us with 80s, blue sky, and reasonable humidity levels. A retrograding (east to west moving) storm over the Ohio Valley may spark late-day storms over Wisconsin & Iowa, but most of us won't see T-storms until Sunday. Weekend highs approach 90F with a drippy dew point of 70. It will feel like summer this weekend.

After the year we've had I guess we've EARNED a memorable 4th.

Photo credits. Upper left: KFOR-TV, Oklahoma City. Upper right: azfamily.com.

NASA Image: Fires In Manitoba. This is why we've had such a hazy, milky-white sky (and cherry-red sunsets) in recent days. Smoke from fires up north is being swept south of the border. According to an article at phys.org 27 separate fires in Manitoba have burned over 300,000 acres.
Image credit above: "NASA image courtesy Jeff Schmaltz, MODIS Rapid Response Team."


Sunny Streak Continues. The ECMWF is fairly consistent; with the first chance of T-storms (in the metro) coming on Sunday - possibly late Saturday up north. Highs reach the upper 80s to near 90 by Saturday and Sunday. Monday still looks like the wettest day with the best chance of T-storms, as a slow-moving cool front tracks across the state.


Not Quite Right For Early July. By now a massive heat-pump high pressure ridge should be dominating most of the USA as the jet stream lifts north into Canada. Not so in 2013, with unusually big, sweeping, north-south dips and bulges to the jet. In fact weather systems have pretty much stalled, in fact the band of showers and heavy T-storms sweeping from the Gulf of Mexico right up the Appalachians is retrograding, drifting toward the west!


Soggy Fourth For The Southeast. NOAA's 5-Day QPF shows 5-6" rainfall amounts from the Florida Panhandle to near Huntsville, Atlanta and Asheville, where more flash flooding is possible by the weekend. No rain is forecast for the west coast or the Central Plains into early next week.

4th of July Weather Since 1871: Fairly Good Odds Of Dry Weather. At least that's been the case in recent years. Farther back in weather history? Not so much. Here's an excerpt from the Minnesota State Climate Office: "Looking back at records dating to 1873 for the Twin Cities, the average high and average low for Independence Day are 82.4 degrees F and average low of 62.6, respectively. 2012 came in as the warmest July 4th on record at 101 degrees, this was a part of an extremely warm early July. 1967 recorded the lowest high temperature at 58 degrees, which was the last time the high temperature has dipped below 70 degrees. Although recent July 4th's tend to have warm and mostly dry, Mark Seely mentions on the June 28th 2013 WeatherTalk that it is the rainiest holiday in Minnesota looking back to 1891. The heaviest rainfall occurred in 1900, a year that saw 2.27 inches of rain over Independence day. The most recent washout occured in 1995, the Twin Cities reported 0.24 inches from 6:00-8:00 PM, with a brief shower at Noon. This has been the lone rain event to disrupt July 4th events in the Twin Cities for the past 50 years..."
Image credit above: Twin Cities National Weather Service.

"Dry Lightning", Sudden Wind Shifts and Haboobs. You would think that a forecast of thunderstorms for the Southwest would be greeted as good news. Not necessarily. A sudden wind shift (gust front) from rapidly moving thunderstorms in Arizona probably fanned (and shifted) the flames that ultimately claimed the lives of 19 firefighters northwest of Phoenix. And when the atmosphere is so dry T-storms can spark lightning, with little or no rain actually reaching the ground. A mixed blessing at best, unless it rains hard and repeatedly for days on end. Here is today's installment of Climate Matters: "You might think a thunderstorm would be good news for firefighting efforts because it brings much wanted moisture. Think again. Not all thunderstorms bring rain. WeatherNation Chief Meteorologist Paul Douglas explains how a storm can be dry and why this creates extremely dangerous conditions for those battling wildfires."

In The Line Of Wildfire. 19 highly skilled, fire-fighting "hotshots" just lost their lives battling a blaze 80 miles northwest of Phoenix. Who are these men, and how do they take on raging fires with backpacks and shovels? Outside Magazine published an article on June 13 detailing what life is like on the front lines: "I ROLL OUT of my sleeping bag at 5 A.M., waking to the smell of dry grass and woodsmoke. I spent last night in the open, camped on rodeo grounds in the tiny Northern California town of Stonyford. Flames are visible on a ridge half a mile away. Time to go to work. It’s July 12, 2012, and I’m about to be sent to my first forest fire of the season. I arrived yesterday to meet up with the Tahoe Hotshots, an elite group of wilderness fire-fighters based about 120 miles east of here, in a Sierra foothills town called Camptonville. The Tahoe team is part of a sprawling, multifaceted army: 177 federal, state, and county crews who must try and stop a fast-moving, 17,000-acre blaze before it spreads into Stonyford. Known as the Mill Fire, it was started on July 7 by lost hikers and raced east through the Coast Range and the Mendocino National Forest. Drought conditions and 60-mile-per-hour Pacific winds have fueled its advance; already, five buildings have burned on the edge of town...."

Photo credit above: "Tahoe Hotshot Isaiah Eastlng burning slash in the Tahoe National Forest." Photo: Kyle Dickman.

Astronaut View Of Fires In Colorado. Here's a slightly different perspective, one which brings home the scale of these massive wildfires. Here's more from NASA's Earth Observatory: "Thick smoke billows across the landscape in these digital photographs of the western United States. Both photographs were taken by astronauts aboard the International Space Station (ISS) on June 19, 2013. The images show a plume wafting from the West Fork Complex fire, which was burning explosively in southwestern Colorado near Pagosa Springs. To the northwest, a smaller plume from the Wild Rose fire is also visible (upper image). While the Wild Rose blaze was fully contained by June 25, 2013, the West Fork Complex was still raging through the San Juan and Rio Grande National Forests. The West Fork Complex is a combination of three fires: the West Fork fire, the Windy Pass fire, and the Papoose fire. Lightning ignited the first of the blazes on June 5, 2013, and together they had charred approximately 75,000 acres (30,000 hectares) by June 25. The fires were burning in rugged terrain with large amounts of beetle-killed spruce forests..."

There are currently 27 fires in the northeast section of Manitoba. These fires have burned over 126,000 hectares (over 311,000 acres). Showers have lowered wildfire danger levels in most areas of the province with the exception of northeastern Manitoba where conditions continue to remain dry.

Read more at: http://phys.org/news/2013-07-nasa-image-manitoba-canada.html#jCp

There are currently 27 fires in the northeast section of Manitoba. These fires have burned over 126,000 hectares (over 311,000 acres). Showers have lowered wildfire danger levels in most areas of the province with the exception of northeastern Manitoba where conditions continue to remain dry.

Read more at: http://phys.org/news/2013-07-nasa-image-manitoba-canada.html#jCp

The Low-Down On The West's Heat Wave; What's Causing It, And Why Hot Nights Are So Dangerous. Here are some interesting facts from AP and The Washington Post: "...“Nighttime heat is especially bad,” said Eli Jacks, chief of fire and public weather services at the National Weather Service. “Not to get below 90 is crazy.”

Q: What’s so dangerous about that?
If you aren’t in an air-conditioned place, “your body never has a chance to recover” at night, Jacks said. Normally the “feels-like” index — which factors in temperature and humidity — has to get to 80 degrees or below for your body to recover from the daytime heat, Jacks said. The lack of nighttime cooling is more dangerous than the 117 degree all-time record in Las Vegas, experts said..."

658 people fall victim to intense heat in the USA every year, according to the CDC, The Center for Disease Control and Prevention. Heat is, by far, America's biggest weather-related killer.

Heat Waves Throughout History. As always, perspective is in order - heat claimed far more lives in previous centuries, long before central air conditioning revolutionized how most of us ride out a hot summer. I had no idea a heat wave in 1896 killed an estimated 1,300 New Yorkers. Here's an excerpt of a fascinating read at history.com: "Summer 2013 has only just begun, but one region is already feeling the heat. This week, thanks to an unusual change in direction of the jet stream, much of Alaska is experiencing near-record breaking temperatures (30 degrees warmer than usual in some places), prompting authorities to issue warnings meant to protect citizens and prevent the outbreak of wildfires. As North America prepares for a long, hot summer, find out what happens when things start to really heat up with this look back at some of the most infamous heat waves in history..."

With Weather Warnings, How People Use Their Lead Time Is Key. Here's an excerpt from a thoughtful Op-Ed at The Oklahoman: "...Weather science is steadily evolving and vastly improved. In a state so devastated by violent weather, it's good that so much weather research is centered here. But government researchers can't dictate how TV weather teams conduct themselves. Just as we were reminded on May 20 of the importance of having adequate shelter to weather the most powerful tornadoes, we were reminded on May 31 that being in cars or storm drains is deadly. We learned some things from both storms. What did the TV weather teams learn? How will they change their methods as a result? What people do in response to a warning is sometimes more important than how much lead time they have."

NASA Launches IRIS Solar Mission To Research Space Weather. Because one of these days we're going to see a G4 or G5 rated X-class flare that will threaten America's power grid. Hopefully no time soon. TechHive has the story; here's a snippet: "NASA launched a solar telescope on Thursday that scientists hope will be able to unlock the secrets of how material gathers, moves and heats up as it travels through the Sun’s lower atmosphere. Scientists say that better understanding of this part of the solar atmosphere, which sits below the corona, could help explain and model phenomena like the ejection of solar material—something that can cause damage to electronic circuits, power distribution networks and communications systems on Earth when it gets large enough..."

* more details on the NASA IRIS mission here.

America's "Brainiest" Cities? Not my term, but I found this story in The Atlantic Cities interesting, and how they came up with their final metrics. Here's the intro: "In the knowledge age, "smart" cities and metros have a considerable economic advantage. Economists like Harvard's Edward Glaeser have shown how urban and regional economic growth turn on education levels or so-called "human capital" (measured by the share of adults who hold college degrees). Others show the connections between knowledge and creative jobs, innovation, and economic growth. Still others focus on the role of specific skills — knowledge, social, and physical — in economic and urban development (a subject I covered back in October 2011 for The Atlantic.) But what about more direct measures of "brain performance"? Last year, I mapped America's "brainiest" metros, using new measures and rankings developed by Lumos Labs via their online brain-performance program, Lumosity. Since Lumosity allows you to track your performance, you can actually see if you're improving or backsliding..."

Map credit above: "The map above shows the pattern for metros; the list below shows the top 25 brainiest CBSAs based on Lumosity rankings. Ithaca, New York, takes first place, followed by State College, Pennsylvania, and Lafayette-West Lafayette, Indiana, in third; Iowa City, Iowa, is fourth, and Ames, Iowa, is fifth."

Climate Stories....

This Is What Climate Change Looks Like: Top 10 Most Expensive Climate Disasters of 2012. Here's a story from Huffington Post that provides some perspective, more examples of how a warmer, wetter climate is fueling more extreme storms - and consequences: "On Tuesday President Obama released his climate action plan -- and not a moment too soon. Extreme weather has been pounding the U.S., and while pundits and the fossil fuel industry will claim action is too expensive, the cost of inaction is far too much to bear. In 2012 there were 11 climate disasters that cost more than $1 billion each, according to NOAA. Below are the 10 most expensive.

1. Hurricane Sandy - cost $65.7 billion and caused 159 deaths

Hurricane Sandy touched down on U.S. soil on October 29 after leaving a path of destruction through Jamaica, Haiti, the Dominican Republic, Cuba, the Bahamas, and Bermuda. Sandy was the second-costliest and deadliest hurricane ever to hit the U.S. after Hurricane Katrina in 2005. A total of 24 states were affected, with thousands of homes destroyed and millions of people left without electricity. Of the direct deaths, the storm caused 48 direct deaths and 87 additional indirect deaths."

Photo credit upper left: EPA/MASTER SGT. MARK OLSEN / US AIR FORCE
Photo credit upper right: NWS Meteorologist Samuel Shea

The Climate Context Behind The Deadly Arizona Wildfire. Climate Central meteorologist Andrew Freedman takes a look at the trends increasing the potential for catastrophic blazes out west; here's an excerpt: "...Thunderstorms near the fire are a suspected cause of the erratic behavior of the flames on Sunday, when the firefighting crew was forced to deploy their last-resort fire shelters to try to deflect the flames. The Yarnell Hill fire, like other wildfires in the West right now, is taking place in the context of one of the most extreme heat waves on record in the region, as well as a long-running drought. While the contributors to specific fires are varied and include natural weather and climate variability as well as human factors, such as arson, a draft federal climate report released in January found that manmade climate change, along with other factors, has already increased the overall risk of wildfires in the Southwest. And projections shows that the West may be in for more large wildfires in the future. Climate models show an alarming increase in large wildfires in the West in coming years, as spring snowpack melts earlier, summer temperatures increase, and droughts occur more frequently or with greater severity..."

Graphic credit above: "Statewide temperature trends in Arizona since 1920, with the post 1970 trend line drawn as well." Credit: Climate Central.

Yes, Wildfires Are Connected To Climate Change. Here's How. Treehugger takes a look at how the combination of less winter snowcover, less spring rain, a growing drought, and a warming/drying climate, are all conspiring to create a potentially record summer and autumn for wildfires out west; here's an excerpt: "...Felicity Barringer and Kenneth Chang at The New York Times report that scientists are calling this a "new normal" for the American west: Warmer winters mean less snowfall. More of the winter precipitation falls as rain, which quickly flows away in streams instead of seeping deep underground. The soils then dry out earlier and more quickly in May and June. “It’s the most arid time of year,” Dr. Garfin said. “It’s windy as well.” The growing season also starts earlier, so there is more to burn. “The fire season has lengthened substantially, by two months, over the last 30 years,” said Craig D. Allen, a research ecologist at the United States Geological Survey station at Bandelier National Monument in New Mexico..." (Photo: DNR).

Wildland Firefighting At The Rough Cutting Edge of Climate Change. Rick Piltz connects the dots at Climate Science Watch; here's the intro: "Western firefighters are more often encountering conditions they have never before experienced, with extreme fire behavior and extreme weather conditions," writes former U.S. Forest Service firefighter Nick Sundt. “Many of our elected representatives in Washington are napping on the fireline. They need to wake up and smell the smoke.” The following is a guest post by Nick Sundt, a former U.S. Forest Service firefighter, who worked as a hotshot, smokejumper and helitack crew member from 1976 to 1990: Late Sunday (30 June), 19 firefighters died in the Yarnell Hill Fire southwest of Prescott Arizona. All of them were members of the Granite Mountain Interagency Hotshot Crew; a hotshot crew consists of 20 firefighters, so nearly the entire crew was killed..."

"Long-Term Perspective On Wildfires In The Western USA". Here is a paper at the National Academy of Science that delves into causation. Climate change is a big factor, but probably not the only variable involved.

Climate Change, Pipelines And Alberta Floods. Here's an excerpt of an article at The Vancouver Sun: "Most Canadians sympathize with those affected by the Alberta floods, and many have offered support of various kinds. At the same time, a number of commentators have pointed out the connection between the oilsands projects in Alberta, and the sad irony of the flooding relatively nearby. It has been asserted that intense floods of this nature are consistent with predictions about climate change, and that the oilsands are a significant contributor to global warming. While a single event cannot be used to provide evidence for or against climate change, scientific models predict that global warming will lead to more intense flooding in some places (as is currently happening in Alberta), more intense droughts in others (like in the south of the U.S. for example), more intense hurricanes (such as exemplified by Hurricane Sandy last fall on the Atlantic coast), melting of the polar ice caps (as is happening in the Canadian Arctic) and a variety of other negative outcomes (possibly including contributing to the severity of tornadoes, such as in Oklahoma recently)..."

Photo credit above: "The recent flood in southern Alberta is consistent with predictions that climate change is causing extreme weather events, UBC professor writes." Photograph by: Jordan Verlage, The Canadian Press , Vancouver Sun

Oh Canada. How America's Friendly Northern Neighbor Become a Rogue, Reckless Petrostate. Here's the intro to a story at Foreign Policy: "For decades, the world has thought of Canada as America's friendly northern neighbor -- a responsible, earnest, if somewhat boring, land of hockey fans and single-payer health care. On the big issues, it has long played the global Boy Scout, reliably providing moral leadership on everything from ozone protection to land-mine eradication to gay rights. The late novelist Douglas Adams once quipped that if the United States often behaved like a belligerent teenage boy, Canada was an intelligent woman in her mid-30s. Basically, Canada has been the United States -- not as it is, but as it should be..."


The Amazing Energy Race. Here's an excerpt of an Op-Ed from St. Louis Park's Thomas Friedman, writing for The New York Times: ....“In reducing coal’s historic dominance, the president is formalizing a market trend that was already taking shape,” remarked Andy Karsner, who was an assistant secretary of energy in the last Bush administration. His bigger message, though, was “no matter where you find yourself on the political spectrum, it’s useful for the nation to discuss, debate and consider a strategy for climate change. The consequences of inaction are potentially greater than all the other noise out there.” Sadly, many Republican “leaders” rejected Obama’s initiative, claiming it would cost jobs. Really? Marvin Odum, the president of the Shell Oil Company, told me in an interview that phasing out coal for cleaner natural gas — and shifting more transport, such as big trucks and ships, to natural gas instead of diesel — “is a no-brainer, no-lose, net-win that you can’t fight with a straight face...”

Floods, Fires and a Fourth of July Preview (why are wildfires becoming larger and more intense out west?)

Smoky Sunsets

All that haze in the air, the milky-blue cast to the sky, is evidence of big wildfires in Manitoba, Canada - smoke being swept south into Minnesota. Expect a few Technicolor-Cherry-Red sunsets this week.

Rumor has it this is the biggest week of the summer for family getaways, cabin reunions and camping adventures. Excuse me while I take a few shots of Maalox - with a Tums chaser. My nervous tick is kicking in.

America's weather is still stuck in a holding pattern, unusually big sweeps of the jet stream for July providing a non-stop runway for flooding T-storms out east, while the west wilts under incandescent heat. What does 128F feel like?

On my blog (below) an AP reporter in Death Valley describes it as a non-stop hair dryer inches away from your face, cell phones too hot to touch, using oven mitts because the steering wheel is THAT HOT.

Welcome to one of the best weeks of summer: a string of sunny, warm days into next weekend, when highs may nudge 90F with a few T-storms. We should luck out on the 4th: hazy-blue skies, dew points near 60 (humid, not unbearable) and highs in the mid 80s. 6-7 dry days in a row? 

Unprecedented.

At this rate you might even have to water your garden.

 

A Long Overdue Case of Summer Bliss. The ECMWF is still fairly optimistic, at least into Saturday, with a slow warming trend and dew points creeping upward over time. An isolated instability T-shower is possible by Thursday, mainly over Wisconsin and Iowa, closer to the nagging trough of cold, low pressure aloft. By Saturday highs may approach 90, with the best chance of showers and T-storms Saturday night into Sunday.

 

4th of July, 2013. Here is the "Euro" forecast for midday Thursday, showing heavy showers and storm over the eastern seaboard; heaviest rains along the spine of the Appalachians. PM clouds will sprout over the Ohio and Mississippi River Valleys, the weather improving west of a line from Eau Claire to Des Moines to Kansas City.

 

 

84 Hour Forecast. Weather systems (fronts and storms) tend to slow down significantly during the summer months, but the current holding pattern is unusual, even for July. A massive trough of low pressure stalled over the Ohio Valley and Mid South will keep a steady flow of moisture flowing from Florida and Georgia on north toward Asheville and Pittsburgh.

 

5-Day Rainfall. NOAA HPC models are printing out some 3-4" rainfall amounts from Pensacola to Louisville by Saturday evening; monsoon-related T-storms helping to cool New Mexico and Arizona a bit by the end of the week.

A Chaotic Sky. Thanks to Daniel Bovitz, Deputy Director of Hennepin County Emergency Management in Medina, who snapped this terrific photo over Perch Lake (Side Lake, Minnesota - just north of Hibbing). According to Daniel "these storms were moving in every 20 minutes or so. Very heavy rain producers."

AP Photographer Describes 128F Heat. So what does 128F feel like? Is it really a "dry heat"? Here's a clip of a remarkable story from the AP and sfgate.com: "...I know what to expect in Death Valley: Unrelenting heat so bad it makes my eyes hurt, as if someone is blowing a hair dryer in my face. I don't leave CDs or electronics in the car because they could melt or warp. I always carry bottles of water. But I still make mistakes. I forgot my oven mitts, the desert driving trick I learned as a teenager after burning my hands too many times on the steering wheel. And my rental car is black, adding several degrees to the outside temperature of 127. When the digital thermometer at the Furnace Creek visitor center ticks up to 128, a few people jump out of their cars to take a picture. The record temperature for the region — and the world — is 134 degrees, reached a century ago. I try to work in flip-flops, but the sun sears the tops of my feet, and I am forced to put shoes on. My cellphone, pulled from my shirt pocket, is so hot that it burns my ear when I try to take a call from my wife..."

Photo credit above: "Eric Varone, right, takes a picture as Floriane Golay, of Switzerland watches, in Death Vally National Park Friday, June 28, 2013 in Badwater, Calif. Excessive heat warnings will continue for much of the Desert Southwest as building high pressure triggers major warming in eastern California, Nevada, and Arizona." Photo: Chris Carlson.

Extreme Heat: Phoenix Forecasters Bake Cookies In Van. Hey, what a great air freshener idea! Suddenly those cool fronts are looking at little easier to take. Thank you Canada. Here's an excerpt of a story from The Los Angeles Times: "Frying an egg on the asphalt? That’s so last heat wave. As triple-digit, oven-like temperatures hit Phoenix this weekend, forecasters with the National Weather Service baked cookies--in a van. “We were joking around that we should bake some cookies, because that sounds a lot better than frying an egg,” meteorologist Charlotte Dewey told the Los Angeles Times. “More tasty, anyway.”  When temperatures hit 116 degrees in Phoenix on Friday, Dewey and a fellow forecaster hunted down cookie pans, tin foil and a roll of store-bought chocolate chip cookie dough. On Saturday the desert city hit 119, breaking an all-time record for the day.." 

Photo credit above: "In 116-degree heat, forecasters with the National Weather Service in Phoenix baked cookies in a van as an experiment." (Charlotte Dewey / National Weather Service / June 29, 2013)

19 Firefighters Killed In Yarnell Hills, Arizona Blaze - Are Wildfires Becoming More Frequent? In today's edition of Climate Matters we look into the meteorological and climatological ingredients going into what may become a record year for wildfires out west. The combination of low winter snowpack, meager spring rains, and virtually no significant precipitation in June has set the stage for a series of fires, wildfires that are increasing in size, frequency and intensity: "Record heat in the Southwest plus lack of rainfall combine for a deadly and destructive start to the 2013 wildfire season. WeatherNation Chief Meteorologist Paul Douglas looks at other factors leading to a longer and more active fire season."

Remembering 19 Fallen Heroes. The Yarnell Hills tragedy, with 19 firefighters killed in a single blaze, was the worst disaster for the fire-fighting communitiy since 1933. The image above sums up our thoughts, courtesy of garyvarvel.com and the Kentucky Division of Forestry.

The Troubling Data Behind America's Growing Wildfires. The Atlantic Wire has the story - here's an excerpt: "...That uptick tracks with an increase in fire size. The NIFC has data on acreage burned and the number of fires going back 50 years, though data prior to 1983 uses different records. Here's the number of fires and acres burned during that time period. Over the past decade, there's been a noticeable trend: fires have gotten bigger. The number of acres burned per fire reached a new high last year. (graph above shows firefighter fatalities related directly to wildfires).

"Living With Fire", a must-read Op Ed in the NY Times, is here.

Yarnell Hill Tragedy: America's 3rd Deadliest. All of the fatalities above are from firefighters fighting wildfires and brushfires. Of course 9/11 remains the largest loss of life for firefighters, nationwide. Graphic courtesy of EcoWest.org.

From Alerts Broadcaster (issued Monday afternoon):

Here's what we're monitoring:

- Flash Flood Warnings posted for northern New Jersey, metro New York City and Fairfield County, CT, for excessive 1-3"+ rains falling on already-saturated ground. Our models are indicating a significant risk of flash flooding for Newark, Paterson and Elizabeth over the next 18 hours:

- Typhoon Rumbia should spare Macau and Hong Kong, direct strike on Maoming and Zhanjiang as a minimal Category 1 storm (70-90 mph winds) within the next 18 hours. 12 foot seas reported offshore pose a risk to shipping, main risk will be 10" rains and inland flooding over Guangdong Province of China.

- Heavy rain sparking flooding in Sydney, Australia - mudslides impacting rail lines and commutes.

- Evidence points to an especially severe fire season for western third of USA; update on blazes underway from Colorado to California.

Flash Flood Threat. Slow-moving thunderstorms will continue to redevelop along the Eastern Seaboard much of this week, pouring more excessive rain on ground that is already saturated, waterlogged. We saw 2.5" rain in 30 minutes near Sussex, New Jersey earlier this morning, storms dumping out a total of 4" nearby. For this reason warnings have been posted and a nagging flash flood risk will linger into Friday. I don't see any rapid clearing or drying. Areas that normally experience urban or small stream/river flooding should stay alert from Charlotte to Washington D.C., Philadelphia and New York City.

Waterlogged. This map sums up why we're having ongoing problems with flooding: June was one of the wettest months on record, with over 10" for Philadelphia, Hartford and Boston. Additional rain in the coming days will almost immediately run off into streets and streams.

15 Hour Rainfall Outlook. Our in-house modeling expert produced this map, showing the heaviest (3-5" downpours) most likely over eastern North Carolina, with some 2-4" amounts possible from near Wilkes-Barre and Allentown into northern New Jersey, on north to Burlington, Vermont and Manchester, New Hampshire.

Flood Potential. Weather systems are in a holding pattern, completely stalled, allowing a frontal boundary to linger directly over the East Coast. T-storms will flare up along this front, sparking as much as 3-5" from near Albany to North Conway and Manchester, New Hampshire and Portland Maine. The heaviest rains over the next 27 hours are forecast to fall over northern New Jersey, but Newark and New York City may see some 1-3" amounts, capable of sparking urban flooding. RPM 4 km rainfall prediction courtesy of WSI.

Typhoon Rumbia. The southern coastline of China is bracing for "Rumbia", forecast to come ashore late Monday night or Tuesday morning (USA times) as a weak, Category 1 typhoon (same thing as a hurricane). The main threat is inland flooding, as tropical moisture interacts with higher terrain, generating as much as 10-15" rain.

Rumbia Intensity Forecast. All the models we examine show Rumbia striking the Guandong region of China as a Category 1 typhoon with sustained winds of 70-85 mph. This implies a storm surge of 5-8 feet, capable of lowland flooding, but probably not catastrophic flooding.

Tracking Rumbia. It now appears that Macau and Hong Kong will avoid a direct strike from Typhoon Rumbia, which is taking a track farther south and west.

Direct Strike. Chinese cities fromZhanjiang to Maoming are at risk of major flooding and light to moderate wind damage as Rumbia comes ashore tonight or early Tuesday.

Severe Storms Strike Sydney. June is usually the wettest, stormiest month of the year for Sydney, and last month was no exception to the rule. Powerful storms have swept across New South Wales, sparking flooding rains and even mudslides. Details from ubalert: "A collapsed embankment at Harris Park Station Sydney is causing delays to rail commuters as crews work to repair. Sydney train passengers should expect delays for the rest of this week after wet and wild weather caused a 2000 ton landslide at a train station in the city's west. Pieces of concrete, fencing and trees were among the debris that tumbled across the platform and into the tracks. Large trees in the park were also inspected on Monday to ensure they don't pose a danger."

On Track For A Record Fire Season Out West? I hope I'm wrong, but I don't like the signals I'm seeing. Snowfall amounts last winter and spring were lower than average, and an amazingly persistent jet stream pattern has funneled Pacific moisture away from southwestern states in recent months. The record heat of recent days has dried out vegetation even more, creating extremely dangerous, tinder-dry conditions. You've already heard about the tragic Yarnell Blaze that claimed the lives of 19 firefighters outside Phoenix. These large blazes are kicking up very early in 2013. Peak fire season is August through October. Details from The North American Forest Fire Incident Display System and InciWeb.

The Summer of All or Nothing. The disparities in moisture are jaw-dropping this summer. While the East Coast grapples with a stalled front and Flash Flood Watches stretching from Hilton Head to Charlotte, D.C. and much of New England, most of the west is parched, with near-record heat lingering into at least midweek. The San Francisco Bay Area is under a Heat Warning thru Wednesday evening, with inland temperatures ranging from 97-110. Monsoon thunderstorms may produce slight relief for Arizona and the Las Vegas area by Wednesday, but higher humidity levels will mean a heat index in the danger zone much of this week.

Calgary Flood Photos Captured By Space "Disaster Cam". CTV News has the image, and the story - here's a clip: "A “disaster camera” set up in space by Canadian astronaut Chris Hadfield has captured the widespread flood damage in Calgary. The International Space Station’s Environmental Research and Visualization System -- nicknamed “disaster cam” -- captured about two dozen images of the flooding on June 22, 23, 24. Hadfield, who attracted worldwide attention by sharing stunning images of the Earth from the ISS on Twitter, installed the ISERV camera in January, during his five-month long space mission..."

Image credit above: "This image, captured by the ISERV camera aboard the International Space Station, shows floodwaters from the Bow and Elbow Rivers in downtown Calgary." (Servir Global)

 

The ZIP Code Turns 50. Why do we use zip codes to send our snail mail along? Here's a good overview, and a 50th birthday for Mr. Zip, from Time Magazine: "...By the early 1960s, the post-war population boom and continued western growth led to even greater use of the postal service. Mail volume doubled between 1943 and 1962, putting further pressure on the post office to sort mail efficiently. On July 1, 1963, on the recommendation of an internal advisory board, the post office introduced the Zone Improvement Plan Code, which divided the entire country into coded delivery areas. The first two or three numbers told carriers to which states mail was being sent. More populous regions like New York were given five digit numbers starting with 10-14, for example, whereas less populous areas like Montana received five-digit numbers. These new ZIP codes helped the post office better pinpoint where mail was headed while allowing it to expand machine-based sorting systems that could quickly read digits. But many Americans were reluctant to adopt the new system..."

Image credit: "Mr. ZIP, a cartoon mail character created in the early 1960s to entice Americans to use ZIP codes."

 

Climate Stories....

Honoring The 19 Dead At Yarnell Hill, Arizona. Here's an excerpt from climate scientist Greg Laden's blog at scienceblogs.com: "Nineteen fire fighters were killed yesterday as they were overrun by a lightning-sparked fire in Arizona. This consisted of the entire crew as deployed to fight the Yarnell Hill Fire near Phoenix, Arizona. The best way to honor these fallen heroes, from afar and from the perspective of fellow citizens, is to demand that more support be given to their efforts (by ending the Republican Sequester) and to acknowledge that their job has been made much harder because of global warming induced increases in wild fire frequency and severity. Global warming is on track to double the number of wild fires in the US by 2050, but very few predictions of this type have panned out over the last ten years. Usually, the degree of severity of climate effects from global warming is much larger than predicted, or comes sooner than predicted. Some people try to push responsibility for more fires off on bad management practices, but this, while it may be a factor, is a) old news and addressed in many areas decades ago; b) pales in comparison to the effects of drought and c) pales in comparison to massive tree death which in turn is exacerbated if not simply directly caused by anthropogenic climate change..."

Experts See A New Normal - A Tinderbox West, With More Huge Fires. Here's a clip from a story at The New York Times (subscription may be required to read entire article): "...Since 1970, Arizona has warmed at a rate 0.72 degrees per decade, the fastest among the 50 states, based on an analysis of temperature data by Climate Central, an independent organization that researches and reports on climate. Even as the temperatures have leveled off in many places around the world in the past decade, the Southwest has continued to get hotter. “The decade of 2001 to 2010 in Arizona was the hottest in both spring and the summer,” said Gregg Garfin, a professor of climate, natural resources and policy at the University of Arizona and the executive editor of a study examining the impact of climate change on the Southwest. Warmer winters mean less snowfall. More of the winter precipitation falls as rain, which quickly flows away in streams instead of seeping deep underground..."

Photo credit above: "Firefighters work near a wildfire burning along a ridge in Yarnell, Ariz., in this photo provided by the U.S. Forest Service, Monday, July 1, 2013. The lightning-sparked fire, which started last Friday, spread to at least 2,000 acres amid triple-digit temperatures, overtook an elite group of firefighters, killing 19 members as they tried to protect themselves from the flames under fire-resistant shields." (AP Photo/U.S. Forest Service)

Alpine Lakes In Austria Reflect Climate Change. Here's an excerpt from National Geographic's Water Currents Blog: "...Dokulil studied historical records and found a rise in summer surface water temperature parallel to air temperature since the mid-1960s. He estimates an average increase in annual lake temperature of about 1 degree Celsius (less than 2 degrees Fahrenheit) during this period. “Increases in air temperature as a result of climate change are mirrored in lake waters where temperatures are also on the rise,” he concluded. He predicts that lake surface water temperatures are likely to rise by up to 3 degrees Celsius (5.4 degrees Fahrenheit) in Austrian Lakes by 2050, depending on the region..."

Image credit above: "Satellite image of Neusiedlersee, one of the lakes where algal blooms are expected to increase with changes in climate." Photo courtesy of Martin Dokulil

El Nino Was Unusually Active In Possible Link To Climate Change. Here's a new angle I hadn't seen before; that a warming atmosphere (and ocean) may have increased the frequency/intensity of El Nino warming events in the equatorial Pacific. Here's an excerpt from Bloomberg: "The El Nino weather pattern that can bring drought to Australia and rain to South America was “unusually active” at the end of the 20th century, possibly due to climate change, a University of Hawaii study found. Researchers studied 2,222 tree-ring records as proxies for temperature and rainfall over the past 700 years, the university wrote in an online statement dated yesterday. The records indicate the El Nino-Southern Oscillation weather phenomenon has been increasingly active in recent decades relative to the past seven centuries..."

Global Warming May Drive More Active ENSO Pattern. Picking up on the story above, here's a slightly different perspective from Bob Berwyn at The Summit County Citizens Voice: "Climate scientists have long suspected that global warming has an influence on the Pacific Ocean El Niño- La Niña cycle (El Niño-Southern Oscillation), but instrumental records tracking the shift between above- and below average sea surface temperatures don’t go back far enough to provide context for any recent changes in the pattern. But scientists working at the International Pacific Research Center, University of Hawaii at Manoa say a new tree ring record extending back about 700 years has helped decipher long-term trends. The tree ring samples from both the tropics and mid-latitudes in both hemispheres support the idea that the unusually high ENSO activity in the late 20th century is a footprint of global warming said Jinbao Li, lead author of the study published online in the journal Nature Climate Change..."

Koch Pledge Tied To Climate Inaction. Here's the intro to a story at The New Yorker: "When President Obama unveiled his program to tackle climate change last month, he deliberately sidestepped Congress as a hopeless bastion of obstruction, relying completely on changes that could be imposed by regulatory agencies. A two-year study by the Investigative Reporting Workshop at American University, released today, illustrates what might be one of the reasons why he had to take this circuitous route. Fossil fuel magnates Charles and David Koch have, through Americans for Prosperity, a conservative group they back, succeeded in persuading many members of Congress to sign a little-known pledge in which they have promised to vote against “legislation relating to climate change unless it is accompanied by an equivalent amount of tax cuts.” Since most solutions to the problem of greenhouse-gas emissions require costs to the polluters and the public, the pledge essentially commits those who sign to it to vote against nearly any meaningful bill regarding global warning, and acts as yet another roadblock to action..."

The Politics of Energy is Changing. Is climate change, ultimately, a human rights issue? Here's an excerpt of an Op-Ed at Huffington Post: "...Bad energy policy is not just polluting our planet; it is polluting our politics, and warping international relations. It is the invisible force holding nations in thrall to dictators, causing conflicts and repressing human rights, a suffocating inertia that holds back democracy and development. Just as it pollutes the air, the politics of energy is polluting foreign policy. For more than a century, the fight for fossil fuel resources has shaped the world. It has driven companies to corruption, governments to repression, and nations to war. The struggle to secure and control energy supplies is at the heart of some of our thorniest global problems, from instability in the Middle East to territorial claims in the newly accessible Arctic. The world's hottest flashpoints are located over its richest reserves. Economies have been ruined, and populations repressed, all in the name of fossil fuels. Thankfully, the clean energy resources needed to fix the climate problem are now becoming cost competitive with fossil fuels..." (Image: Clean Technica).