Mellowing May (slight severe risk - a better way to measure the destructive power potential for hurricanes?)

Jet stream 2.0

People are asking about recent weather extremes: record drought to historic floods, virtually overnight - 18" snows in May? "Is this the new normal?" Time will tell, but researchers increasingly see a link with recent melting in the Arctic. If you've seen the documentary film "Chasing Ice" you know what I'm referring to: 1.3 million square miles of ice lost in 30 years. Warming at the top of the world may be reducing temperature contrasts, turning the jet stream into a "sluggish estuary", according to Rutgers researcher Jennifer Francis.

As jet stream winds slow weather patterns can slow down and even stall, with more of a north-south component to wind patterns evident since record melting in 2012. Details below.

A rumble of thunder today gives way to light rain Thursday. A gusty cool front arrives Saturday; highs in the 50s with a rising barometer. Not sure the walleye will be biting, but it's worth a shot.

Mother's Day looks better: bright sun, less wind - highs near 60F. No accumulating snow in sight.

Models hint at 80s next Tuesday, but no sustained heat or humidity is brewing either. A big silver lining: May 8 and there have been no severe storms near the metro yet.

 

Fishing Opener Weather Over The Years. Pete Boulay at the Minnesota Climatology Working Group has a great overview of past weather for Minnesota's Fishing Opener; here's an excerpt: "Minnesota's Fishing Opener weather is typified by partly cloudy to cloudy skies, morning temperatures in the low 40's, and afternoon temperatures climbing to near 70. Three out of four years are free of measurable precipitation. A trace of snow has been reported in northern Minnesota on at least five of the last 64 fishing openers. On at least four occasions, some lakes were still frozen for the opener. Generally there is enough wind to be felt on the face, maybe enough to 'fly' a flag. Weather on Minnesota fishing opener dates is highly variable. 64 years of fishing opener weather data are summarized here to offer a glimpse of what is 'typical' and what is 'extreme'. 

Opening day temperatures have started as low as 24 degrees at International Falls (1996,2004), with freezing temperatures possible even in Minneapolis (31 degrees in 1979). On the warm side, St. Cloud saw 92 degrees in 1987, Minneapolis reported 91 in 1987, and International Falls reached 88 in 1977. The average early morning temperature varies from the high 30's in the northeast to the high 40's along the southern border. The average afternoon temperature generally ranges from the mid 60's along the northern border, to the low 70's in the extreme south. Along the shore of Lake Superior, highs are held in the mid 50's..."

Fishing Opener Weather Back To 1948. Sure, it's more than you ever wanted to know, but if you're really bored, troll through this page from The Minnesota Climatology Working Group to see how much worse it could be this weekend.

Governor's Fishing Opener. The Minnesota Historical Society has more details on why our governors probably live in mortal dread of The Fishing Opener.

May (Mostly). ECMWF data suggests Thursday may be a little wetter than today; skies dry out Friday - a few fleeting showers Friday night as cooler air arrives. Saturday should be the chilliest day: 50s south and some upper 40s far north. Winds ease Sunday with bright sun and highs in the mid 50s to near 60F. The Euro suggests 80s by Tuesday, then cooling off a bit the latter half of next week.

Slight Relapse. We cool off over the weekend, but the U.S. models agree with the ECMWF simulation, showing a nice, almost summerlike spike in temperature by Tuesday. Graphic: Iowa State.

84 Hour NAM Model. Pacific moisture (that helped to quench widlfires in California) will spread into Minnesota and the rest of the Upper Midwest today; a few claps of thunder possible. Showers spread up the east coast from a weakening cut-off low. By Saturday a shot of chilly air is poised to sweep into the Upper Mississippi Valley and Great Lakes. No, don't pack away the light jackets just yet.

Slight Severe Risk. Hail and isolated tornadoes are possible later today from Kansas into western Oklahoma and central Texas. Thursday the risk remains from Dallas to Oklahoma City; another risk area from St. Louis to Indianapolis and Detroit. Source: NOAA SPC.

Warming Trend. The European model forecast for midday Tuesday (courtesy of WSI) shows a surge of warm air pushing into southern and central Minnesota. Assuming the sun is out we should have no problem topping 80F, followed by a cooler front by Wednesday.

Why Our Turbulent Weather Is Getting Even Harder To Predict. Amen to that. Changes in the Arctic may be having a ripple effect at lower latitudes, as described in this article at The Guardian; here's an excerpt: ..."As the Arctic heats up disproportionately, so does the atmosphere at the north pole and as it warms up, it rises. The net effect has been to erode the gradient between the top of the atmosphere over the tropics and the top of the atmosphere over the Arctic. Less air pours down towards the north pole and less air is whipped up by Earth's rotation to form the jet stream. It is becoming less of a stream and is behaving more like a sluggish estuary that is meandering across the upper atmosphere at middle latitudes." The effects of this meandering are now being felt. As the jet stream slows, weather patterns tend to stick where they are for longer. In addition, the modest waves in the stream have increased in amplitude so that they curve north and south more frequently, bringing more weather systems northwards and southwards. Hence the cold conditions that have been brought south over Britain and which have persisted for so long..." (Photo: Kevin Gould, NASA Earth Observatory).

This Isn't The Weather We Grew Up With. Everyone wants a nice, tidy, 10 second TV soundbite explanation for why our weather has gone mad. Connecting the dots is a bit more complicated than that, but here's a good place to start, a story at The Guardian, co-authored by University of St. Thomas climate scientist John Abraham. Here's an excerpt: "What does this mean to us? It means that we shouldn't be surprised to see more severe weather that lasts for longer durations. Our weather can be expected to whiplash from one extreme to another. In the U.S. we are seeing some evidence of this. Alternating wet, snowy winters and warm non-winters. Summers of either extreme heat and drought – or unbelievable flooding. But don't just take my word for it. A leading researcher in this area, Dr. Jennifer Francis says,

"The Arctic is warming two-to-three times faster than the rest of the northern hemisphere -- the loss of sea ice, spring snow cover, increased Greenland melting, and permafrost degradation are all symptoms of and contributors to this warming. It's inconceivable that a change of this scale and magnitude will not have substantial impacts on the atmosphere, ocean, and land both within the Arctic and also beyond the Arctic where millions of people live. These impacts will affect not only the physical system -- such as weather patterns and ocean circulation -- but also life on land and in the ocean. Exactly how these effects play out is a wide-open topic of research..."

Photo credit above: Climate Nexus.

Farmers Whipsawed By Drought, Then Rain Across Region. Here's an excerpt from St. Louis Today: "Farmers had crossed their fingers and said their prayers. But then they got what they wanted. A decimating drought last year ravaged the country’s corn crop and had farmers nervously hoping for a snowy winter or rainy spring to replenish parched farmland. But now, after weeks of above-average rain, much of the nation’s corn belt is a muddy mess, leaving farmers frustrated and planting weeks behind schedule, potentially cutting into this year’s expected record crop. “It’s just mud out there. There’s no chance, whatsoever, of getting anything done,” said Greg Guenther, who grows corn east of Belleville. “Everyone’s worried and annoyed, because it really should be in the ground, and we should be planting beans by now. Instead we’re just looking at muddy fields...”

Photo credit above: "Water covers the intersection of Illinois State Route 100 and Route 3 in Grafton, Illinois, on April 23, 2013." (Derik Holtmann/Belleville News-Democrat/MCT)

The Government Is Spending Way More On Disaster Relief Than Anybody Thought. There is no Magic Money Genie - at some point the cost of all these disasters trickle down to all of us. The Washington Post Reports: "Hurricanes, floods and droughts are putting an increasingly large strain on the federal budget. A new report out Monday from the Center for American Progress finds that Congress spent at least $136 billion on disaster relief between 2011 and 2013. That works out to $400 per household per year. And those costs could rise in the years ahead — particularly if climate change leads to more frequent extreme weather. But the most striking part of the report? No one in the government even knew the full amount that Congress had been spending on disaster relief — not the Federal Emergency Management Agency, nor the Office of Management and Budget. The authors had to pore over all the appropriations bills and disaster-relief supplementals that Congress had passed between fiscal year 2011 and fiscal year 2013 to make an estimate..."

Photo credit: "As storm cleanup continues in the Rockaways neightborhood of New York, a man walks by a piece of the Rockaways boardwalk atop a car." (Kathy Willens / AP)

Minnesota's Deadliest Tornadoes. The Twin Cities National Weather Service has a comprehensive summary of the May 6, 1965 tornado outbreak with spun up F-4 tornadoes in the immediate metro. Fridley was hit the hardest (by two separate F-4 twisters; winds approaching 200 mph). Here's an excerpt: "The worst tornadoes in Twin Cities history occurred in 1965, with five tornadoes sweeping across the western and northern portions of the 7-county region, and a sixth tornado just outside the metropolitan area. Four tornadoes were rated F4, one was an F3, and the other produced F2 damage. Thirteen people were killed and 683 injured. Many more would have been killed had it not been for the warnings of the U.S. Weather Bureau, local officials, and the outstanding communications by local radio and television stations. Many credit the announcers of WCCO-AM with saving countless lives. It was also the first time in Twin Cities history that civil defense sirens were used for severe weather...."

Image credit upper left: "A photo taken by Minnetonka resident H. B. Milligan of a tornado crossing to the west of the junction of Hwy 7 and 101 on May 6, 1965. It is believed that this was the tornado that touched down in Chanhassen at 6:27 p.m. and dissipated in Deephaven at 6:43 pm. The photo was published in July 1965 by the Minneapolis Tribune as part of the "Photos of the Week" feature, and photographers received a $5 award."

Image credit upper right: "Radar footage from 1965 was recently discovered, and the 35mm film was converted to digital format, although there was no method available to us other than a somewhat crude technique.  So we present them "as is," with little indication of how distant the storm was from the radar, or without any map backgrounds.  It will take quite some time, but we hope some day to assign high resolution map backgrounds and possibly filter the radar echoes to highlight the most important storms.  This will allow us to study the event in greater detail and learn important lessons from this historic tornado outbreak. The clock uses 24 hour timing, and is in Central Standard Time.  For example, 1800 would be 6:00 p.m. CST, and 2100 would be 9:00 p.m. CST."

Warn On Forecast: Future of Weather Warnings. A 30-40 minute "Tornado Alert"? It's possible within the next 4-6 years. Here's a good overview of NOAA's plans for tornado and severe storm prediction in the years ahead from KTBX.com: "...He's going about it by working on research that will hopefully bring on a process called "Warn on Forecast." The idea is to forecast an individual storm from before the time it becomes severe through an hour in the future. Using a percentage basis, the theory is that a computer model should be able to give us an idea where a tornado will be likely and how it will move within that hour. After 5 minutes time, that same model will recreate the forecast, taking in the newest data and radar scans, and produce another updated forecast. Should a tornado be possible, the percentage and confidence will increase and forecasters should be able to issue a warning well ahead of the severe weather event happening..."

Hurricane Season Countdown: What We Learned In 2012. Sandy was sobering on many levels. It turns out there may be a better way to communicate the risk posed by a specific hurricane than the Saffir-Simpson scale. Here's an overview of today's Climate Matters video clip: "Meteorologist Paul Douglas previews the 2013 Atlantic hurricane season which is just a few weeks away. Learn about a new scale called TIKE that could compliment the Saffir-Simpson Scale."

Scientists Develop New Way Of Classifying Hurricanes. What is the "TIKE Index" and why should you care? Andrew Freedman at Climate Central reports on a new (and more accurate) way to measure the full impact of hurricanes and their storm surges - the most damaging and deadly component of these massive tropical systems. Here's an excerpt: "...Now, a new study, published in the journal Monthly Weather Review by scientists from Florida State University, proposes a new metric that aims to complement Saffer-Simpson and other recently developed scales by taking into account a storm's intensity, duration, and size. The metric, known as "Track Integrated Kinetic Energy", or TIKE, builds from an existing measure of storm integrated kinetic energy (IKE), which was developed in 2007..."

Graphic credit above: "Hurricane Sandy had a massive tropical storm force wind field that at one point spanned the entire East Coast from North Carolina to Massachusetts." Credit: National Hurricane Center.

2012 Shows How Storm Predictions Can Miss The Mark. Hurricane track forecasts are good, and getting better. Hurricane intensity projections? Much more problematic. Here's an excerpt from a story at The Herald Tribune: "..As predictions go, 2012 was a good year — the NHC had a record-low margin of error after verifying track predictions against the actual path of storms. "Two-thousand twelve was a successful year, no matter how you look at it," National Hurricane Center specialist John Cangialosi told conference attendees. But calculating storm intensity proved less reliable, and when the models were off, the consequent devastation to unsuspecting coastal areas overshadowed any statistical victory. "We do still make some occasional, big-time mistakes," he added. "There's no better way to see that than to look at last year..."

Photo credit above: "Motorists drive through a flooded section of Beach Road near Siesta Key Public Beach on une 28, 2012 after rain from Tropical Storm Debby filled streets and parking lots with water on the Sarasota barrier island." HERALD-TRIBUNE ARCHIVE / 2012 / ELAINE LITHERLAND

Hurricane Center Director: Water, Not Wind, Caused Most Serious Problems In 2012 Storm Season. Never underestimate the power of rapidly moving water. People tend to fixate on a hurricane's "category" (1-5) and wind speeds, when what they should really be focused on is storm surge potential. Here's an excerpt from AP and The Washington Post: "Last year’s hurricane season drove home some big lessons, the nation’s chief hurricane forecaster said Tuesday: Storm surge and flooding are dangerous and difficult to predict, and sometimes it’s even harder to communicate that sense of urgency to the public. It wasn’t just high winds that posed a threat and caused damage, said National Hurricane Center Director Rick Knabb, who joined Florida’s emergency managers in Fort Lauderdale at the annual Governor’s Hurricane Conference. “2012 was all about water, water, water. Debby, Isaac, Sandy,” Knabb said. “It was storm surge from the ocean, it was inland flooding, it was river flooding...”

Photo credit above: J Pat Carter - Associated Press. "National Hurricane Center Director Rick Knabb talks, Tuesday, May 7, 2013 in Fort Lauderdale, Fla, about the lessons learned from Superstorm Sandy and expectations for the Atlantic storm season that begins June 1..."

In The Market For A Flying Car? Looks like science fiction may become a reality in the very near future. Check out this article at gizmag.com: "Although countless small companies have tried to commercially develop flying cars over the past several decades, we’re still not seeing Blade Runner-esque vehicles cruising over our rooftops ... yet. Terrafugia is one of the groups currently trying to change that situation – a fully-functioning prototype of its Transition fixed-wing “roadable airplane” is currently undergoing flight tests, and was recently cleared for civilian use by the US Federal Aviation Authority. It still requires a runway for take-off and landing, though, which kind of clashes with many peoples’ flying car fantasies. Well, today Terrafugia announced its plans for a hybrid-drive vertical-take-off-and-landing (VTOL) vehicle, known as the TF-X..."

Photo credit above: "Terrafugia has announced its plans to develop a vertical-take-off-and-landing flying car, known as the TF-X." (Image: Terrafugia)

China's Architecture Just Keeps Getting More Bizarre. Here's an excerpt from an article at Quartz: "...Bizarre buildings have increasingly been piercing China’s skylines, earning the country a reputation for being “a playground for bad design.” Unattractive Chinese buildings have become so commonplace that a Chinese architectural firm, Archcy, has started surveying residents on what they believe are the country’s 10 ugliest buildings (article in Chinese). One architect last year said choosing just 10 was “very hard” but a million he could do..."

Photo credit above: "The Guiyang Science and Technology building in Guizhou, China has been voted one of the ugliest buildings in China in 2013." archcy.com

A Snowman's Rapid Demise. Thanks to Andrew and Jill Dahl (hey, any relation to...never mind) for sending in these before and after photos from southeastern Minnesota. The photo upper left was taken Thursday, May 2. The photo on the right was taken just 96 hours later. This has to be some sort of record for the fastest snowman meltdown on record.

Climate Stories....

Video: What The Press Is Missing About Midwest Floods. Here's an excerpt from Media Matters: "As Midwestern states assess the damage wrought by record flooding in recent weeks, scientists tell Media Matters that the media has missed an important part of the story: the impact of climate change. A Media Matters analysis finds that less than 3 percent of television and print coverage of the flooding mentioned climate change, which has increased the frequency of large rain storms and exacerbated flood risks. Seven out of eight scientists interviewed by Media Matters agreed that climate change is pertinent to coverage of recent flooding in the Midwest. Princeton University climate scientist Michael Oppenheimer told Media Matters it is "not only appropriate, but advisable" for the press to note that rainstorms in the Midwest are increasing in frequency and that climate models "suggest this trend will continue," which will contribute to more flooding. Aquatic ecologist Don Scavia added that this is the "new normal," and that the media is "missing an important piece of information" by ignoring this trend..."

Arctic Ocean "Acidifying Rapidly". Here's an excerpt from a story running at The BBC: "Scientists from the Arctic Monitoring and Assessment Programme (AMAP) monitored widespread changes in ocean chemistry in the region. They say even if CO2 emissions stopped now, it would take tens of thousands of years for Arctic Ocean chemistry to revert to pre-industrial levels. Many creatures, including commercially valuable fish, could be affected. They forecast major changes in the marine ecosystem, but say there is huge uncertainty over what those changes will be..."

Can Humans Survive? Newsweek has the story - here's a clip: "...No matter what we do to control our fossil-fuel use and carbon output, our climate has already been permanently changed for the next millennium. To prevent the planet from becoming uninhabitable, we’ll have to take our control of the environment a step further and become geoengineers, using technology to shape geological processes. Though “geoengineering” is the proper term here, I use the word “terraforming” because it refers to making other planets more comfortable for humans. As geoengineers, we aren’t going to “heal” the earth or return it to a prehuman “state of nature.” That would mean submitting ourselves to the vicissitudes of the planet’s carbon cycles, which have already caused several mass extinctions. What we need to do is actually quite unnatural: we must prevent the earth from going through its periodic transformation into a greenhouse that is inhospitable to humans and the food webs where we evolved. Put another way, we need to adapt the planet to suit humanity."

Photo credit above: "Are we in the first act of a mass extinction that will end in the death of millions of plant and animal species across the planet, including us?" (Eric Prine/Gallery Stock)

With Carbon Dioxide Approaching A New High, Scientists Sound The Alarm. 400 ppm. Here's an excerpt from The International Herald Tribune: "For the first time in human history, atmospheric carbon dioxide levels will surpass 400 parts per million, according Scripps Institution of Oceanography, which has been measuring carbon dioxide in the atmosphere at the Mauna Loa volcano in Hawaii since 1958. “The 400-ppm threshold is a sobering milestone, and should serve as a wake-up call for all of us to support clean energy technology and reduce emissions of greenhouse gases, before it’s too late for our children and grandchildren,” said Tim Lueker of the Scripps Institution in a statement. The level of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere is closely linked to global warming. The more carbon dioxide, the higher global average temperatures have climbed, according to climate science. (This graphic shows how global temperature and atmospheric carbon dioxide levels have been linked in the past 400,000 years)..."

Arctic Melting Rapidly: Action Needed Now. If you haven't seen the documentary "Chasing Ice" - and you still have an open mind about climate change, spend the time, make the effort to see this film. It may change the way you feel about this subject. Some people still don't trust climate scientists. Hopefully they'll believe their own eyes. Here's an excerpt from a Huffington Post story: "The Arctic sea ice is melting at a phenomenal rate and the London-based Arctic Methane Emergency Group (AMEG) is calling for governments to put two and two together, and pull out all stops to save the Arctic sea ice or humankind will face starvation in the ensuing years ahead. This week, the White House will hear evidence from Australian scientist, Carlos Duarte, that the Arctic sea ice is on such a downward spiral that we may see a dramatic decline of sea ice over the next two years. Evidence was given to the UK government last year from British scientists, Peter Wadhams and John Nissen, that we could see minimal sea ice by September 2015, simply extrapolating the sea ice volume trend. Evidence from recent satellite images suggests that a record melt is in progress this year. The plight of the Arctic was highlighted to British MPs and the Met Office in a recent showing of the film "Chasing Ice" at the House of Commons, London. The Arctic has recently become an issue in the European Parliament..."

Suit Claiming Hurricane Katrina Related To Global Warming Goes Before Appeals Court. Think Philip Morris (time 10,000). Nothing diminishes shareholder confidence in fossil fuel companies faster than class action lawsuits. Can the plaintiffs prove that higher greenhouse gas levels (and warmer water in the Gulf of Mexico) fueled Katrina's explosive intensification into a Category 4-5 storm in the Gulf of Mexico? Keep an eye on this one and more to come; details from The Louisiana Record: "The U.S Court of Appeals for the Fifth Circuit is set to issue its second opinion in a drawn out climate change case that pits landowners against energy companies. The suit, which accuses a number of companies of contributing to global warming through greenhouse gas emissions, was originally filed in a Mississippi district court in 2005 just 22 days after Hurricane Katrina hit. In the original filing, 14 plaintiffs sued eight named oil companies, 100 unnamed oil and refining companies and 31 coal companies. Through the course of the litigation, electric utilities and chemical companies have been added as defendants. The plaintiffs claim that there is a causal relationship between the emissions, which increased the ferocity of Hurricane Katrina, and the resulting destruction of their property. Multiple defendants in the suit moved for a dismissal, alleging that the plaintiffs lacked standing and that their claims presented nonjusticiable political questions..."

Bob Ingliss Going The Distance On Carbon Emissions Tax. Bob Ingliss is a notable Republican, which makes his initiative significant. He proposes putting a price on greenhouse gas pollution, but in a way that is revenue neutral; a way that stimulates the economy without growing the size of government. Here's an excerpt from Politico: "Former Rep. Bob Inglis knows that his devotion to a carbon tax might have cost him his job. But the South Carolina Republican has no regrets as he dedicates his post-congressional career as well to the battle to persuade fellow conservatives to embrace a revenue-neutral carbon tax. “And really, I am the worst commercial for this, because I got my head blown off trying to do it,” he told POLITICO, sitting at a coffee shop a short walk from the Capitol. But he added, “Losing an election is not the worst thing that can happen to you. Losing your soul is considerably worse.” The controversial tax proposal has long won the backing of many economists, who say it is the simplest and purest means of reducing emissions blamed for contributing to climate change. And while it has also won tentative backing from oil giants like Shell and ExxonMobil, it’s been pilloried by many oil-state politicians and conservatives, who say it would raise energy costs and hurt fossil fuel industries..."

Welcome Rains for California - Cut-Off Low Sparks Flooding Southeast USA (anniversary of Twin Cities' worst tornado outbreak)

Perfect

Finally. I can walk down the street without small children cowering in fear. Their parents are waving again (with all their fingers). I've been here since 1983 - this is the latest I can remember spring green-up. I'll never take GREEN for granted again.

Speaking of weather whiplash: last year set a record for the earliest ice-out on record for many Minnesota lakes; this year will be one of the latest. Lakes are still ice-covered from Mille Lacs, Gull & Whitefish on north to the Canadian border. Ice-out may be 2-5 days later than 1996; most central Minnesota lakes opening up by Saturday, but northern lakes? Keep your boating expectations low.

I wish I could write you a prescription & send you home early today: blue sky, light winds, no humidity or bugs. As good as it gets.

A cold swirl in the atmosphere pushes showers & T-storms into town tomorrow; dew points and wind shear values not high enough for a widespread severe outbreak.

A vigorous cold front arrives with showers by Friday night. Saturday looks brisk with 50s and jackets, but no accumulating snow! Mother's Day looks better; more sun & less wind - highs close to 60F. We may top 80 early next week.

More whiplash.

A Race Against Time. Cue the scary opening music: duh duh....duh. Will there be ice on northern Minnesota lakes for the Fishing Opener? Probably, although it may be off just in time at Mille Lacs, possibly Gull and Pelican. The midday Monday 1,000 meter NASA "Terra" satellite image shows ice-free lakes south of a line from Little Falls to Hinckley. But as you can see Mille Lacs, the Whitefish Chain and Leech are still covered in ice. Mild weather today and midweek rain will help to accelerate ice-out, but I have my doubts Park Rapids lakes will be ice-free in time for Gov. Dayton's big visit. At this rate he may have to drop by the local Coborn's and pick up some nice walleye filets. Can you say "improvise"?

Midweek Puddle Potential. The 00z NAM prints out .31" (all rain!) with showers spilling over into Thursday morning. Friday looks dry, only a fleeting light shower or two Friday night - probably not enough rain to seriously interfere with fishing.

Stuck Storms and Lazy Fronts. The ultra-slow-moving cut-off low grinding up the East Coast is acting as an atmospheric road block, slowing down the next upper level disturbance for the Upper Midwest. Showers and a few T-storms are likely here Wednesday into Thursday morning, then drier by late week, in spite of a cold frontal passage Friday night. Any weekend chill should be fleeting, a quick warming trend starts up again on Mother's Day. NAM model data: NOAA.

Visions Of A (Real) Spring. Today should be the mildest day into at least Sunday; low to mid 70s likely under a partly sunny sky. Wednesday still appears to be the wettest day, showery, convective rains: showers and a few heavier T-storms possible. After a wet start skies brighten Thursday, another shower Friday night as colder air approaches. Highs hold in the 50s Saturday (maybe some 40s far north - pack a sturdy jacket), but a quick temperature rebound is likely early next week.

Why I'm Going Warmer Monday - Tuesday. Even the normally trusty ECMWF (European) has been more erratic than usual as of late, as the atmosphere makes up its mind whether it wants to stay in winter-mode or graduate to spring. But we've had a few runs/row now pulling very warm air across the Rockies and Plains into Minnesota early next week. If this forecast verifies we'll see highs at or above 80F the first half of next week.


Minnesota's Deadliest Tornadoes. The Twin Cities National Weather Service has a comprehensive summary of the May 6, 1965 tornado outbreak with spun up F-4 tornadoes in the immediate metro. Fridley was hit the hardest (by two separate F-4 twisters; winds approaching 200 mph). Here's an excerpt: "The worst tornadoes in Twin Cities history occurred in 1965, with five tornadoes sweeping across the western and northern portions of the 7-county region, and a sixth tornado just outside the metropolitan area. Four tornadoes were rated F4, one was an F3, and the other produced F2 damage. Thirteen people were killed and 683 injured. Many more would have been killed had it not been for the warnings of the U.S. Weather Bureau, local officials, and the outstanding communications by local radio and television stations. Many credit the announcers of WCCO-AM with saving countless lives. It was also the first time in Twin Cities history that civil defense sirens were used for severe weather...."

Image credit upper left: "A photo taken by Minnetonka resident H. B. Milligan of a tornado crossing to the west of the junction of Hwy 7 and 101 on May 6, 1965. It is believed that this was the tornado that touched down in Chanhassen at 6:27 p.m. and dissipated in Deephaven at 6:43 pm. The photo was published in July 1965 by the Minneapolis Tribune as part of the "Photos of the Week" feature, and photographers received a $5 award."

Image credit upper right: "Radar footage from 1965 was recently discovered, and the 35mm film was converted to digital format, although there was no method available to us other than a somewhat crude technique.  So we present them "as is," with little indication of how distant the storm was from the radar, or without any map backgrounds.  It will take quite some time, but we hope some day to assign high resolution map backgrounds and possibly filter the radar echoes to highlight the most important storms.  This will allow us to study the event in greater detail and learn important lessons from this historic tornado outbreak. The clock uses 24 hour timing, and is in Central Standard Time.  For example, 1800 would be 6:00 p.m. CST, and 2100 would be 9:00 p.m. CST."

The Cut-Off Low That Has Much Of America In A Weather Rut. The same slow-motion storm that dumped historic amounts of snow on southeastern Minnesota, western Wisconsin and parts of Iowa is now soaking much of the Southeast and Mid Atlantic Region. In recent days weather systems have stalled, cut off from the main belt of westerly jet stream winds. More details in today's edition of Climate Matters: "It's been incredibly wet in the Southeast and Mid Atlantic. Rainfall records are breaking from Key West to Atlanta and Charlotte. For folks in the moisture starved Southwest, raindrops today have been a welcome sight. Meteorologist Paul Douglas explains what he calls continued weather whiplash."

California Girds For Severe Fire Season As Dry Land Burns. California experienced the 4th driest winter rainfall season on record, which doesn't bode well for the fire season to come (which usually peaks in late summer and autumn). Bloomberg has the story; here's an excerpt: "Californians are preparing for a prolonged season of wildfires after an unusually dry winter that left millions of acres of scrub brush in the most populous U.S. state primed to burn. The tinder-box conditions have sparked more than 840 wildfires since January, about 320 more than the five-year average, according to the state Forestry and Fire Protection Department, known as Cal Fire. A fast-moving fire in Ventura County over the weekend charred an area the size of San Francisco, forced the evacuation of a college with 4,900 students and threatened 4,000 homes northwest of Los Angeles..."

Photo credit above: "A crew of firefighters climb through a burned area looking for hot spots in Hidden Valley, California, on Saturday, May 4, 2013. Rising humidity and cooling temperatures have slowed the massive fire on its third day." (Anne Cusack/Los Angeles Times/MCT

More Hurricanes For Hawaii? Warmer water and a shift in weather patterns may increase overall risk for Hawaii, according to this story at Science Codex; here's an excerpt: "News of a hurricane threat sends our hearts racing, glues us to the Internet for updates, and makes us rush to the store to stock up on staples. Hawaii, fortunately, has been largely free from these violent storms in the recent past, only two having made landfall in more than 30 years. Now a study headed by a team of scientists at the International Pacific Research Center, University of Hawaii at Manoa, shows that Hawaii could see a two-to-three-fold increase in tropical cyclones by the last quarter of this century. The study, which appears in the May 5, 2013, online issue of Nature Climate Change, though, leaves open the question, how worried Island residents should get. "Computer models run with global warming scenarios generally project a decrease in tropical cyclones worldwide. This, though, may not be what will happen with local communities," says lead author Hiroyuki Murakami..."

Image credit above: "Hurricane Flossie is approaching the Big Island of Hawaii in August 2007." (Photo Credit: NASA)

These Four Sisters Were Photographed Every Year For 36 Years. What a wonderful idea - this story from sobadsogood.com resonated with me; here's an excerpt: "The year was 1975 when Nicolas Nixon, a professor of photography at the Massachusetts College of Art originally photographed his wife Bebe and her 3 sisters. They were so impressed with the result, they collectively decided to make it a yearly event, the annual family photo. 36 years later, the sisters and Nicolas had all kept their promise, resulting in these 36 beautiful and candid photographs..."

Experience: "I Was Swallowed By A Hippo". A headline you don't see very often, if ever - details from The Guardian: "The hippo who tried to kill me wasn't a stranger – he and I had met before a number of times. I was 27 and owned a business taking clients down the Zambezi river near Victoria Falls. I'd been working this stretch of river for years, and the grouchy old two-ton bull had carried out the occasional half-hearted attack. I'd learned to avoid him. Hippos are territorial and I knew where he was most likely to be at any given time. That day I'd taken clients out with three apprentice guides – Mike, Ben and Evans – all in kayaks. We were near the end of the tour, the light was softening and we were taking in the tranquillity. The solid whack I felt behind me took me by surprise..."

17 Astrophotographs That Will Take You On A Time Warp Through Space. Astronomy buffs should enjoy this photo essay, courtesy of dashburst.com: "The stars are out in full force tonight. Previously, we've featured the amazing star trail photography of Lincoln Harrison, an astrophotographer extraordinaire, based out of Victoria, Australia. We humans have always had a fascination with the stars and sky above us, but Lincoln's work takes this to a whole new extreme. Our galaxy reflects light on our universe's past. And his exposures are so long and detailed, if you stare at them for awhile you'll feel like you've started warping through space and time as if you just embarked on some type of epic Star Trek mission!"

A Snowman's Rapid Demise. Thanks to Andrew and Jill Dahl (hey, any relation to...never mind) for sending in these before and after photos from southeastern Minnesota. The photo upper left was taken Thursday, May 2. The photo on the right was taken just 96 hours later. This has to be some sort of record for the fastest snowman meltdown on record.

Climate Stories....

With Carbon Dioxide Approaching A New High, Scientists Sound The Alarm. 400 ppm. Here's an excerpt from The International Herald Tribune: "For the first time in human history, atmospheric carbon dioxide levels will surpass 400 parts per million, according Scripps Institution of Oceanography, which has been measuring carbon dioxide in the atmosphere at the Mauna Loa volcano in Hawaii since 1958. “The 400-ppm threshold is a sobering milestone, and should serve as a wake-up call for all of us to support clean energy technology and reduce emissions of greenhouse gases, before it’s too late for our children and grandchildren,” said Tim Lueker of the Scripps Institution in a statement. The level of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere is closely linked to global warming. The more carbon dioxide, the higher global average temperatures have climbed, according to climate science. (This graphic shows how global temperature and atmospheric carbon dioxide levels have been linked in the past 400,000 years)..."

Arctic Melting Rapidly: Action Needed Now. If you haven't seen the documentary "Chasing Ice" - and you still have an open mind about climate change, spend the time, make the effort to see this film. It may change the way you feel about this subject. Some people still don't trust climate scientists. Hopefully they'll believe their own eyes. Here's an excerpt from a Huffington Post story: "The Arctic sea ice is melting at a phenomenal rate and the London-based Arctic Methane Emergency Group (AMEG) is calling for governments to put two and two together, and pull out all stops to save the Arctic sea ice or humankind will face starvation in the ensuing years ahead. This week, the White House will hear evidence from Australian scientist, Carlos Duarte, that the Arctic sea ice is on such a downward spiral that we may see a dramatic decline of sea ice over the next two years. Evidence was given to the UK government last year from British scientists, Peter Wadhams and John Nissen, that we could see minimal sea ice by September 2015, simply extrapolating the sea ice volume trend. Evidence from recent satellite images suggests that a record melt is in progress this year. The plight of the Arctic was highlighted to British MPs and the Met Office in a recent showing of the film "Chasing Ice" at the House of Commons, London. The Arctic has recently become an issue in the European Parliament..."

Suit Claiming Hurricane Katrina Related To Global Warming Goes Before Appeals Court. Think Philip Morris (time 10,000). Nothing diminishes shareholder confidence in fossil fuel companies faster than class action lawsuits. Can the plaintiffs prove that higher greenhouse gas levels (and warmer water in the Gulf of Mexico) fueled Katrina's explosive intensification into a Category 4-5 storm in the Gulf of Mexico? Keep an eye on this one and more to come; details from The Louisiana Record: "The U.S Court of Appeals for the Fifth Circuit is set to issue its second opinion in a drawn out climate change case that pits landowners against energy companies. The suit, which accuses a number of companies of contributing to global warming through greenhouse gas emissions, was originally filed in a Mississippi district court in 2005 just 22 days after Hurricane Katrina hit. In the original filing, 14 plaintiffs sued eight named oil companies, 100 unnamed oil and refining companies and 31 coal companies. Through the course of the litigation, electric utilities and chemical companies have been added as defendants. The plaintiffs claim that there is a causal relationship between the emissions, which increased the ferocity of Hurricane Katrina, and the resulting destruction of their property. Multiple defendants in the suit moved for a dismissal, alleging that the plaintiffs lacked standing and that their claims presented nonjusticiable political questions..."

Bob Ingliss Going The Distance On Carbon Emissions Tax. Bob Ingliss is a notable Republican, which makes his initiative significant. He proposes putting a price on greenhouse gas pollution, but in a way that is revenue neutral; a way that stimulates the economy without growing the size of government. Here's an excerpt from Politico: "Former Rep. Bob Inglis knows that his devotion to a carbon tax might have cost him his job. But the South Carolina Republican has no regrets as he dedicates his post-congressional career as well to the battle to persuade fellow conservatives to embrace a revenue-neutral carbon tax. “And really, I am the worst commercial for this, because I got my head blown off trying to do it,” he told POLITICO, sitting at a coffee shop a short walk from the Capitol. But he added, “Losing an election is not the worst thing that can happen to you. Losing your soul is considerably worse.” The controversial tax proposal has long won the backing of many economists, who say it is the simplest and purest means of reducing emissions blamed for contributing to climate change. And while it has also won tentative backing from oil giants like Shell and ExxonMobil, it’s been pilloried by many oil-state politicians and conservatives, who say it would raise energy costs and hurt fossil fuel industries..."

Maps Starting To Look More Like May (fire threat eases over California)

Mellowing May

I'm grateful when someone has a good question or thoughtful observation about the weather. Sunday, cheering on my wife in the Lake Minnetonka Half Marathon, I wasn't so lucky. "Paul, are all the local meteorologists in a cult? Do you swap stories and forecasts and just hang out?" a stranger grinned.

Um, no. I have a lot of respect for all the meteorologists in the Twin Cities. I try not to see what others are saying, because it might subtly sway my outlook. Ask 5 forecasters - you'll get 5 different opinions. Why? It all comes down to interpretation of raw data.

It's the same reason why you can interview 5 financial planners and get 5 starkly different suggested portfolios. Experience - which models to trust; predicting the future is as much art as science.

May kicks in this week; a distractingly nice Monday & Tuesday with highs near 70. Thundershowers pop up Wednesday; a cooler front sparking a few showers by early Saturday. Most of Fishing Opener Weekend looks dry - Mother's Day the nicer day, as southwest winds tug the mercury into the 60s. A potentially perfect day at Race For The Cure.

It's a fickle pattern; the ECMWF model has done a full-180, hinting at low 80s early next week.

Hang on!

* photo above from WeatherNation TV Executive Producer Lori Ryan, who was positively giddy about the magnolias blooming in her St. Louis Park yard. Finally.

Clouds Vs. Snow. Look carefully at the stripe of white over southeastern Minnesota and western Wisconsin. It's snow still on the ground - and you can watch it melt before your very eyes. Thicker clouds over western Minnesota kept Sunday highs in the low to mid 50s. Visible cloud loop: WeatherTap.

Looks Like...May. Expect 70+ highs today and Tuesday, a late-week cooling trend, followed by an even warmer front early next week. ECMWF model data shows highs topping 80F by Tuesday of next week.

Long Overdue Temperature Inflation. The mercury nudges 70F today, low to mid 70s Tuesday and Wednesday. Showers and a few T-showers may drift in Wednesday; depending on the timing of any midweek rain that could keep temperatures a few degrees cooler. A cold front arrives early Saturday - highs may hold in the 50s with gusty northwest winds and a rising barometer. Friday night may be the best time to catch walleye, out ahead of the front.


Slow-Motion Weather Map. A very slow-moving cut-off low will weaken as it spreads heavy showers and T-storms across the Carolinas into the Virginias today, lukewarm sun the rule over the Great Lakes and Upper Midwest. A Pacific storm spreads clouds, higher humidity, and light rain into California, helping to (temporarily) ease the brushfire risk. The next chance of showers and T-showers for Minnesota comes Wednesday. NAM model data: NOAA.

A More Springlike Pattern: Midweek Convection? O.K. Convection is meteorological slang for random small-scale showers and T-storms, as opposed to stratiform precipitation, rain and snow that impacts hundreds of thousands of square miles. Wednesday looks showery; dew points and shear probably not high enough for any severe storms, but a few heavy T-storms can't be ruled out. The next chance of showers: Friday night and Saturday as a cooler front approaches.

Mother's Day Preview. The European model (courtesy of WSI) shows a fairly strong southwest breeze kicking in next Sunday. After a chilly start (30s) temperatures should reach the upper 50s to mid 60s under a sunny sky - potentially good news for Race For The Cure....and mom.

30 Day Precipitation. NOAA data shows some Doppler precipitation estimates in excess of 10" in the last month from southeastern Minnesota to eastern Iowa, central Indiana to the much of the Mid South and Gulf Coast. The drought is fading fast, especially east of I-35.

Forecasting A Flood: Reams Of Data, And Still An Imprecise Science. You think predicting when showers will arrive or how many inches of snow may fall is hard? Try predicting what time a river will crest, and how high. Here's a segment of a story that captures the uncertainty, and limits of flood forecasting, from The Washington Post: "Flood forecasting in this part of the continent starts with models for determining how much snow is on the ground. Observers record every snowfall. But it’s even more important to figure out how much water is in that snowpack, which requires melting samples. It can also be done by going airborne to measure the natural radiation coming from the soil — a factor affected by the water in the snowpack. Next up is more modeling on what will happen when the snow melts, which includes a dizzying number of variables. Is the ground frozen? How deep? How much moisture is in the soil? Months of drought worked in Fargo’s favor this year. So did a freeze-thaw cycle that melted snow and warmed the soil during the day — giving runoff a place to go — and then slowed or stopped the melting overnight..."

Photo credit: Dave Kolpack/Associated Press. "In this April 30, 2013 photo, members of the U.S. Geological Survey prepare to launch a boat on the Red River in Fargo, N.D. so a USGA hydrologist can take stream flow measurements. Even with the treams of data, forecasting a flood is still an imprecise science."

April Numbers. April was more than 6F colder than average, 2.56" wetter than normal, with nearly 18" of snow (which is 15.5" snowier than average). More March than April. More details from the Twin Cities National Weather Service.
 

April Highlights - Emerging From Drought. Here's an excerpt of a good summary of April weather conditions statewide, from the Minnesota DNR:

• April precipitation totals were well above historical averages in the eastern one-half of Minnesota, near to below historical averages for the western one-half of the state. For many southeast Minnesota counties, monthly precipitation totals topped the long-term average by more than three inches, erasing drought concerns in those areas. Many observers reported measurable precipitation on more than 20 days during the month. Some observers reported precipitation on 10 or 11 consecutive days.
  [see: April 2013 Precipitation Map  |  April 2013 Climate Summary Table]

• Ten winter storm warnings and numerous winter weather advisories were issued for Minnesota counties by the National Weather Service during the course of the April. Frequent, and often heavy, storms piled up snowfall totals to record or near-record levels at many locations. Historical average monthly snowfall totals range from two inches in southern Minnesota to six inches in northern counties. In many Minnesota communities, April 2013 monthly snowfall totals exceeded 12 inches. Numerous locales reported monthly snowfall totals in excess of 24 inches. The focal point for the heaviest of the April snowstorms was northeast Minnesota, particularly Duluth, where April snowfall reached historic levels. The monthly snowfall total at Duluth's International Airport was an astounding 50.8 inches. Not only did this top the previous April record by nearly 20 inches, it was Duluth's snowiest month ever for any month of the year. The April snow and cold snarled roads, delayed agricultural field work, canceled outdoor events, and postponed natural signs of spring by many weeks.

Sun Emits Mid-Level Flare. Here's an update from NASA on Friday's M-Class flare: "The sun emitted a mid-level solar flare, peaking at 1:32 pm EDT on May 3, 2013. Solar flares are powerful bursts of radiation. Harmful radiation from a flare cannot pass through Earth's atmosphere to physically affect humans on the ground, however -- when intense enough -- they can disturb the atmosphere in the layer where GPS and communications signals travel. This disrupts the radio signals for as long as the flare is ongoing, and the radio blackout for this flare has already subsided."

Image credit above: "A burst of solar material leaps off the left side of the sun in what’s known as a prominence eruption. This image combines three images from NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory captured on May 3, 2013, at 1:45 pm EDT, just as an M-class solar flare from the same region was subsiding. The images include light from the 131-, 171- and 304-angstrom wavelengths." Credit: NASA/SDO/AIA

Farewell To The Gas Station: The Demise Of A Car Culture Icon. Here's a clip of an interesting article at The Daily Beast: "...According to the trade publication National Petroleum News, the station count—which includes public fueling stations, marinas, convenience stores, gas stations, and hypermarkets that sell gas (e.g. Costco)—was 156,065 at the end of 2012, down 1,328, or about 1 percent, from 2011. That marked the seventh consecutive year of decline. Since 2002, the station count has fallen by nearly14,000, or about 8 percent. The trend got started in the 1990s, when “hypermarkets,” – grocery store chains, and retailers like Costco and Walmart – began to sell gasoline at their big-box locations, said Jeff Lenard, a spokesperson at the National Association of Convenience Stores. Just as Walmart and other giants put pressure on mom-and-pop grocers and retailers, these huge chains, with their ability to run on low margins, put some low-volume gas stations out of business..."

Photo credit above: "A Gasland gas station is out of business on a cold winter day on the east side of Buffalo, N.Y., Wednesday, Jan. 23, 2013." (David Duprey/AP)

No, Google Glass Is Not A Segway For Your Face. My favorite headline of the week; here's an excerpt from pandodaily.com: “Google Glass is so futuristic it’s like wearing a Segway on your face.”– Tweet by Matt Novak

"That Tweet likely articulates Google’s biggest fear for Glass, its wearable computer. What if the cool crowd doesn’t accept it? What if, like the Segway, it becomes an emblem of the awkwardly nerdy? What if consumers reject the technology because, even though it’s amazing, there’s too much social stigma to being seen in public with it?..."

Climate Stories...

Arctic Nearly Free Of Summer Sea Ice During First Half Of 21st Century. Details from NOAA: "For scientists studying summer sea ice in the Arctic, it’s not a question of “if” there will be nearly ice-free summers, but “when.” And two scientists say that “when” is sooner than many thought — before 2050 and possibly within the next decade or two. James Overland of NOAA’s Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory and Muyin Wang of the NOAA Joint Institute for the Study of Atmosphere and Ocean at the University of Washington, looked at three methods of predicting when the Arctic will be nearly ice free in the summer. The work was published recently online in the American Geophysical Union publication Geophysical Research Letters. “Rapid Arctic sea ice loss is probably the most visible indicator of global climate change; it leads to shifts in ecosystems and economic access, and potentially impacts weather throughout the northern hemisphere,” said Overland. “Increased physical understanding of rapid Arctic climate shifts and improved models are needed that give a more detailed picture and timing of what to expect so we can better prepare and adapt to such changes. Early loss of Arctic sea ice gives immediacy to the issue of climate change...”  (Photo: NOAA).

Chemical Soup Used In Fracking Includes Hydrochloric Acid, Antifreeze. Here's an excerpt from The Vancouver Sun: "Toxic chemicals such as hydrochloric acid and ethylene glycol (antifreeze) are among those pumped underground to help release natural gas through hydraulic fracturing, according to a database operated by the B.C. Oil and Gas Commission. Environment Canada wants gas companies to fully disclose what fluids they inject deep underground during fracking, a process that fractures shale rock with tonnes of sand, water and chemicals injected at high pressure to get the gas out..."

Photo credit above: "A worker checks water and temperature levels in a series of tanks at an Encana hydraulic fracturing operation at a gas drilling site in Colorado on March 29, 2013." Photograph by: Brennan Linsley , AP

Getting Rich Off Global Warming. Here's an excerpt from Salon: "Local officials and enviros are making plans for a post-global warming America. And so are profit-seeking companies...He didn’t know anything about the 20 federal agencies that just released adaptation planning studies, or the dozen coastal states negotiating the early stages of “managed retreat” and “coastal abandonment,” buzzwords for the work, underway from Puget Sound to Brighton Beach, of accommodating rising seas by contracting the contours of the U.S. map. Hughes didn’t know about any of this. He just knew that the Elmhurst sewage and water systems were buckling under the strains of the new normal, and that his job was figuring out what to do about it. “The floods keep coming, they keep getting worse, and every time there’s damage, everyone blames me,” he said. “I’m here to learn more about what’s happening, and talk to people dealing with the same problems...”

The Last Time CO2 Was This High Humans Didn't Exist. Climate Central has the story; here's an excerpt: "The last time there was this much carbon dioxide (CO2) in the Earth's atmosphere, modern humans didn't exist. Megatoothed sharks prowled the oceans, the world's seas were up to 100 feet higher than they are today, and the global average surface temperature was up to 11°F warmer than it is now. As we near the record for the highest CO2 concentration in human history — 400 parts per million — climate scientists worry about where we were then, and where we're rapidly headed now. According to data gathered at the Mauna Loa Observatory in Hawaii, the 400 ppm mark may briefly be exceeded this month, when CO2 typically hits a seasonal peak in the Northern Hemisphere, although it is more likely to take a couple more years until it stays above that threshold, according to Ralph Keeling, a researcher at the Scripps Institute of Oceanography..."

Graphic credit above: "CO2 levels are far higher now than they have been for anything during the past 800,000 years." Scripps Institution of Oceanography.

NASA Study Projects Warming-Driven Changes In Global Rainfall. Here's an excerpt from a NASA press release: "A NASA-led modeling study provides new evidence that global warming may increase the risk for extreme rainfall and drought. The study shows for the first time how rising carbon dioxide concentrations could affect the entire range of rainfall types on Earth. Analysis of computer simulations from 14 climate models indicates wet regions of the world, such as the equatorial Pacific Ocean and Asian monsoon regions, will see increases in heavy precipitation because of warming resulting from projected increases in carbon dioxide levels. Arid land areas outside the tropics and many regions with moderate rainfall could become drier. The analysis provides a new assessment of global warming's impacts on precipitation patterns around the world. The study was accepted for publication in the American Geophysical Union journal Geophysical Research Letters..."

Carbon Tax Is Best Way To Minimize Disastrous Climate Change: Opinion. Here's an excerpt of an Op-Ed from a Senior Engineer at JPL, The Jet Propulsion Laboratory, at the Los Angeles Daily News: "...This is indeed the situation on Earth today. Earth's climate is changing rapidly and there is grave concern about the potentially adverse effects of these changes for life on the planet. Fossil fuels have brought us breath-taking prosperity, but over the long term this wealth is illusory because full-cost accounting hasn't been practiced "" for example the high cost on the biosphere of burning coal, oil and gas. Most of us are cost-conscious in making decisions, yet these business-as-usual "cheap" energy sources will contribute to multiple extinctions in the near future, leaving our children with only limited and very expensive options. The problem is not so much today's climate. As noticeable and frightening as the changes are to date, they're just the tip of the iceberg and can be accommodated, barely. The alarming, existential threat is the continuance of business-as-usual leading to unprecedented heating. We have to be smart enough to anticipate this heating trajectory and take steps to avoid it..." (Photo: Reuters).

"...Last year was the 27th consecutive year with an above average global temperature and the ninth warmest year on record. The years between 2001 and 2012 were among the top 13 warmest on record." - The Telegraph

Climate Change Creates Maddening Weather Whiplash. Yep, that pretty much sums it up - from one extreme to the next. Here's an excerpt of a story from Discovery News and NBC News: "...The term "weather whiplash" was first invoked to describe this effect by science writer Andrew Freedman in 2009. But now climate scientists are using the term, and pointing to the current floods, in the Midwest as the classic case. "I'm using it now to describe the longer term kind of flooding-drying cycles," said meteorologist Jeff Masters, co-founder and director meteorology at the Weather Underground. "It's pretty amazing. It used to be only one in three years were flood years. Now it's almost every year." The whiplash has become especially painful in river towns where just a few months ago dredging was needed to keep goods afloat and keep communities alive. Now sandbags are the only thing holding back the rivers from flooding the very same towns..."

Photo credit: Office of Missouri Gov. Jay Nixon via Reuters. "Flooding is seen along the Mississippi River near LaGrange, Missouri, in this April 21, handout photo courtesy of the Missouri Governor's Office."