April Mega-Storm: Potential For Tornadoes, Flooding, 1-2 Foot Snowfall Amounts by Thursday

Just the Messenger

May I be excused, please?

This might be a good time to drive south to a slightly warmer, more meteorologically hospitable spot, like Dubuque.

A friend of mine, Tim, reports local fast-ball softball teams are driving as far south as Illinois and Kansas City to find (thawed) ball fields to play on. Our stunted spring has many of us in a funk, and things are about to get even more "interesting".

A slow moving storm tracking across the Plains will spray a fire-hose of Gulf moisture northward - flooding rains for the Midwest & heavy wet snow from the Upper Mississippi Valley into the Dakotas, where some 20-30 inch amounts are predicted. Good grief. A cold rain today mixes with ice tonight and Wednesday, a plowable (4-8"+) pile of slush may reach the metro area from Wednesday into Thursday; heaviest amounts on lawns, fields and dazed robins.

Thursday may be the most challenging travel day.

Note to self: I shouldn't have taken off my snow tires - but at least I left my driveway stakes in.

It's baffling: the maps look like something out of early March. The most snow from an April storm? 13.6" on April 14, 1983. If we pick up 6.7" (possible) it would be the most April snow since 2002.

Biggest Single Day April Snowfalls In The Twin Cities? I was really hoping not to have to include this data from the Minnesota State Climatology Office:

Rank  Value  Ending Date

  1    13.6"  4/14/1983

  2     8.9"  4/7/1923

  3     8.8"  4/14/1949

  4     8.5"  4/13/1928, 4/27/1907, 4/20/1893

  7     7.2"  4/4/1957

  8     7.1"  4/27/1908

  9     6.6"  4/21/2002, 4/29/1984

Something For Everyone. Everything except sunshine and 70s. Flood watches & warnings for Wisconsin, a Winter Storm Watch for the Twin Cities, and Winter Storm Warnings west of St. Cloud. Details on the Winter Storm Watch from the Twin Cities NWS:

...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY EVENING
THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON...

A WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY EVENING
THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

* TIMING: LIGHT RAIN WILL TRANSITION TO A WINTRY MIX OF
  PRECIPITATION ON TUESDAY EVENING AND CHANGE OVER TO SNOW LATE
  WEDNESDAY.

* MAIN IMPACT: SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 INCHES OR GREATER...
  MAINLY BETWEEN WEDNESDAY EVENING AND MID DAY THURSDAY.

* OTHER IMPACTS: SMALL ICE ACCUMULATIONS DUE TO SLEET AND
  LIGHT FREEZING RAIN ON TUESDAY EVENING AND WEDNESDAY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
SNOW...SLEET...OR ICE ACCUMULATIONS THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL.
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS.

Hey...It'll Melt. Last night I complained about the snow to my wife of 28 years. She told me to shut up. "It'll melt", she said. True enough. The GFS is still going nuts, showing some 12-16" amounts, which could happen, if there is no wintry mix (sleet and freezing rain); if precipitation falls as ALL SNOW. This could happen, but I still expect some rain, sleet (ice pellets) and freezing rain to mix in, especially today and the first half of Wednesday, which will keep amounts down in the far more reasonable range of 5-8", maybe 10" far northern suburbs. But hey, it'll melt.

I Can't Quite Believe It Either. I want to dismiss this as utter nonsense. It's the second week of April! As far as the atmosphere is concerned it's the first week of March. There's enough cold air in place for some 1-2 foot snowfall amounts from eastern Wyoming into South Dakota; maybe 18" for west central Minnesota and a cool foot for St. Cloud. The NAM is hinting at 4-8" for the immediate MSP metro by Friday morning, with the heaviest amounts north and west of town (on lawns and fields). I feel the sudden urge to drive (run?) south - as fast as I can.

Potential For Glaze Ice Tonight. I expect a cold rain today, but surface temperatures should dip just below 32F later tonight, allowing rain to freeze into glaze in time for rush hour Wednesday morning. Plan on leaving a lot more time to get around Wednesday and Thursday.

WSI RPM Model. WSI's high-resolution 12km. RPM model is in pretty good alignment with the NAM, suggesting 8-10" across the MSP metro, most of that coming Wednesday PM into Thursday, when temperatures in the lowest mile of the atmosphere bottom out. Some 24"+ snowfall amounts are forecast west of Sioux Falls. What month is this again?


One Of The Biggest Snowfalls of Winter - Coming in "Spring". No, the irony isn't lost on me. The 00z NAM shows a major storm spinning up over the Plains, moving slowly to the east-northeast, tapping moisture from the Gulf of Mexico, taking a track favorable for heavy wet snow from South Dakota into Minnesota and Wisconsin.


Storm Track. NOAA models show a track well south of Minnesota, ensuring a steady supply of cold air at the height of the storm, Wednesday into Thursday. The slow forward motion of the storm will help to contribute to excessive precipitation amounts: rain and heavy wet snow.

Plenty Of Moisture. I was hoping for rain (to alleviate the drought), but we'll wind up with more snow than rain this week. Models suggest 1.5 to 2.5" liquid by Friday morning, more (rain) Sunday of next week. The good news? I feel more confident than ever that, based on the cool, wet pattern we're stuck in, the drought will ease over much of Minnesota by June.

Euro-Trash. Sadly, I think the ECMWF (European) model is probably on track to verify; hinting at 1.25" liquid Wednesday and Thursday, much of that moisture falling as heavy, wet snow. With high water content in the snow I wouldn't be surprised to hear reports of downed tree limbs, even some power outages at the height of the storm. It should be warm enough for rain showers Sunday, readings reach the 50s to near 60 by the middle of next week. Right.

Tracking A Freak April Storm. Here's a YouTube video that delves into the reasons for this week's March-like storm, and why rainfall and snowfall amounts may be very significant, some of the highest of the winter season: "Calendar says April 8th, but the weather maps are much more in line with what you would see in early March. 20-30" snowfall amounts possible along with the potential for a few large violent tornadoes. Millions of people will be impacted this week. Are you one of them? Watch what Meteorologist Paul Douglas has to say about this freak April storm."

Here is an excerpt of an Alerts Broadcaster briefing late Monday, which we provide to weather-sensitive companies around the world:

I'm sitting here, in a Monday funk, mourning the apparent death of spring, at least over the Plains and Upper Midwest. The calendar insists that its April 8, but as far as the atmosphere is concerned it's March 1, give or take. An unusually intense storm (for the second week of April) will impact the central USA with heavy wet snow, heavy rain capable of urban and river flooding, and deeper into the warm, humid air, a significant severe storm outbreak, with a potential for a few large, violent tornadoes: central Plains today and Tuesday, pushing into the Mississippi Valley and Mid South by Wednesday and Thursday.

Highlights:

* Near-blizzard conditions are possible in the Denver area Tuesday; where as much as 5-9" of snow will fall. Expect delays and cancellations at KDEN, especially tomorrow.
* Models print out some 20-30" amounts across South Dakota, with plowable snows pushing across Minnesota into Wisconsin Wednesday and Thursday.
* Chicago may pick up 3" of rain by Thursday, complicating stream and river flood forecasts - I expect some level of urban flooding as well.
* A few large, violent, long-track tornadoes are possible tomorrow from Austin and Dallas to Kansas City. By Wednesday the threat shifts to Shreveport, Little Rock, Memphis, St. Louis and Louisville. Details:

3-5 Week's Worth of Rain by Thursday. The NAM model prints out very heavy rainfall amounts for the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes, as much as 2-3" or more of liquid water. Most of that water will fall as heavy wet snow over the Plains and portions of the Upper Midwest.

Confirmation. The models are coming into alignment, showing the heaviest snowfall amounts from Nebraska into South Dakota and southwestern Minnesota, where some 12"+ amounts seem imminent. This could still be a plowable snowfall for the Twin Cities by Wednesday and Thursday, with some 5-10" amounts extending toward Wausau, Appleton and the Green Bay, Wisconsin markets.

Mile High Mess. Snow arrives tonight in Denver, peaking tomorrow, when an increase in wind speed may trigger near-blizzard conditions. I'm comfortable (wrong word) predicting 5-9" for the Denver area by the time snow tapers Wednesday.

Blizzard Potential Index. One of the many value-added models we run here at Alerts Broadcaster is the BPI, the Blizzard Potential Index, factoring in snowfall rates, wind speeds and predicted visibilities. The worst of the storm along Colorado's Front Range is forecast to come Tuesday afternoon.

Remarkable Extremes. I don't think I've ever seen this. Alerts Broadcaster models predict highs topping 100F over southern Texas, while holding in the 20s over Colorado and New Mexico over the next 72 hours. The resulting temperature gradient will help to spin up an unusually intense storm over the Plains states.

On Track For A Significant Severe Storm Outbreak. Although not as expected to be as violent as outbreaks in 2011, the stage is set for supercell thunderstorms capable of large, long-lasting tornadoes capable of significant destruction. The risk is greatest tomorrow from Dallas to Oklahoma City and Wichita - the threat shifts into the Mississippi Valley by Wednesday.

Friday Storm Potential. A few severe thunderstorms are likely in the Atlanta area late Thursday, possibly pushing into D.C., the Delaware Valley and New York City by Friday afternoon. Although the potential for tornadoes will be small, some storms may produce large hail and damaging straight-line winds. Friday's PM commute may be a real mess across the Northeast.

Summary: I've seen a lot of things in 40 years of meteorology, but I can't remember the last time I saw 20-30" snowfall amounts during the second week of April. Portions of the High Plains may be temporarily shut down, starting tomorrow, spilling over into Thursday. Disruptions to travel and the power grid may be considerable, especially from Denver into Nebraska and South Dakota. Ice changing to snow will create poor to treacherous travel conditions over Minnesota and Wisconsin. The worst conditions at KMSP (Twin Cities) and KMKE (Milwaukee) will probably come Thursday. The slow forward motion of the storm will prolong rainfall across the Midwest, accelerating run-off and stream/river flooding, especially southern Wisconsin into the Chicago and Indianapolis area by midweek.

Ask Paul. Weather-related Q&A:

Paul,

Is there an easy place to get searchable records for actual snowfall totals by location and date? Looking to compare each month of the 2012-2013 Winter season in my neck of the woods (or stretch of the prairie - I'm on the edge)

I stumbled around NOAA for awhile and ended up chasing my tail.

Kelly Larson

Bagley, Minnesota

I asked climate guru Pete Boulay at the Minnesota Climatology Working Group for his advice - here was his answer:

"You can find the closest snow data to your location by going here:

http://climate.umn.edu/hidradius/radius.asp

It appears as though the closest place with at least partial data is site 210643 (Bemidji Airport)."

Pete

Lightning Hits The Seattle Space Needle. At first I thought this photo was Photoshopped, but that is apparently not the case - this amazing image courtesy of Smithsonian.com: "Photo of the Day: March 15, 2013. An Editors' Pick from our 2012 Photo Contest.  Photo and caption by Clane Gessel (Seattle, WA); Photographed August 01, 2010, Seattle, WA."

Climate Change And Turbulence Link? Warmer Air Could Mean A Bumpier Airplane Ride. Great. This is just what I want to read before getting onto a flight. I'd like a seat in the Black Box please. Here's an excerpt from Huffington Post: "Transatlantic airline passengers might expect to stay seated with their seatbelts securely fastened more often in the future, according to new research that finds climate change could lead to more airplane turbulence. By the middle of the century, turbulence strength over the North Atlantic flight corridor could increase between 10 percent and 40 percent, and turbulence frequency could jump between 40 percent and 170 percent, according to the new study published online today (April 8) in the journal Nature Climate Change. The increase could have major implications for the airline industry, as approximately 600 flights a day make the North Atlantic transit from Europe to North America and back. The study researchers focused on clear-air turbulence, the sort of bumps that occur even in the absence of clouds or mountains (which can also give airplane passengers a rocky ride). Clear-air turbulence occurs when masses of air moving at different speeds collide in the atmosphere, making it invisible to the naked eye and nearly impossible to detect using radar or satellite..."

* Here's an abstract of the research referenced in the article above, from Nature.

How Aereo And The Dish Hopper Could "Dramatically Reshape" The Television Industry. I'm interested in new technologies that are disruptive. Aereo (and the Dish Hopper, which allows consumers to automatically skip all commercials on the 4 main networks) fits that definition. Here's an excerpt of a story at TVspy: "A pair of articles in Reuters and The New York Times take a look at the shifting television landscape. Reuters looks at Aereo and the Dish Hopper, “two fledgling technologies could dramatically reshape the $60 billion-a-year television broadcast industry”:

A favorable outcome for Aereo and the Hopper in court would push TV operators to dramatically reshape themselves. It could even force them to trade in their broadcast towers and become cable channels alongside networks such as Bravo, AMC and ESPN, says Garth Ancier, who has been the top TV programmer at Fox, NBC and the WB networks.
“They won’t have a choice,” Ancier said. “When someone attacks your business, sometimes you do something radical...”

 

 

 

 

Climate Stories...

Breaking News (Literally). NOAA Confirms Early Break-Up. Here's a video and excerpt of a story at Climate Denial Crock of the Week: "...A series of intense storms in the Arctic has caused fracturing of the sea ice around the Beaufort Sea along the northern coasts of Alaska and Canada. High-resolution imagery from the Suomi NPP satellite shows the evolution of the cracks forming in the ice, called leads, from February 17 — March 18 2013. The general circulation of the area is seen moving the ice westward along the Alaskan coast “Intense storms” are not an unheard of thing in the arctic. What’s new is that the ice is so fragile that normal storm activity is breaking it up much earlier than has  been seen in the past..."

Simpler, Cheaper Way To Make Methanol Fuel Using CO2 and Sunlight. Find a revenue-neutral way to price carbon pollution (one that doesn't make government bigger) then step back and let the markets do what they do best: innovate. Here's an excerpt of a fascinating story at gizmag.com: "Most previous methods of producing methanol from carbon dioxide have involved lots of electricity, high pressures and high temperatures, and used toxic chemicals or rare earth elements like cadmium or tellurium. A team of researchers at the University of Texas at Arlington (UTA) has developed a new method they claim is safer, less expensive, and simpler than current approaches and can be scaled up to an industrial scale to allow some of the CO2 emitted from electrical power plants to be captured and converted into a useful fuel..."

Photo credit above: "Researchers at University of Texas at Arlington have developed a novel means of creating methanol from sunlight and CO2." (Photo: Shutterstock)

Oceans May Explain Slow-Down In Climate Change. 90-93% of warming is going into the world's oceans, the balance warming the atmosphere and melting ice. Here's an excerpt from Yahoo News: "Climate change could get worse quickly if huge amounts of extra heat absorbed by the oceans are released back into the air, scientists said after unveiling new research showing that oceans have helped mitigate the effects of warming since 2000. Heat-trapping gases are being emitted into the atmosphere faster than ever, and the 10 hottest years since records began have all taken place since 1998. But the rate at which the earth's surface is heating up has slowed somewhat since 2000, causing scientists to search for an explanation for the pause. Experts in France and Spain said on Sunday that the oceans took up more warmth from the air around 2000. That would help explain the slowdown in surface warming but would also suggest that the pause may be only temporary and brief..."

Photo credit above: "The tide comes in as the sun sets on the seafront in Scarborough, northern England February 26, 2013." REUTERS/Dylan Martinez.

Climate Change Will Threaten Wine Production, Study Shows. Coffee, chocolate, now wine? Say it isn't so. Here's an excerpt from The Guardian: "Bid adieu to Bordeaux, but also, quite possibly, a hello to Chateau Yellowstone. Researchers predict a two-thirds fall in production in the world's premier wine regions because of climate change. The study forecasts sharp declines in wine production from Bordeaux and Rhone regions in France, Tuscany in Italy and Napa Valley in California and Chile by 2050, as a warming climate makes it harder to grow grapes in traditional wine country. But also anticipate a big push into areas once considered unsuitable. That could mean more grape varieties from northern Europe, including Britain, the US north-west and the hills of central China..."

Photo credit above: "A study has found sharp declines in wine production from Bordeaux, Rhone and Tuscany, as well as California’s Napa Valley and Chile by 2050, as a warming climate makes it harder to raise grapes in traditional wine country." Photograph: Cephas Picture Library / Alamy

Why We Support A Revenue-Neutral Carbon Tax. Here are two prominent Republicans, George Schultz and Gary Becker, proposing to tax a known pollutant, but in a way that encourages economic growth and innovation in the marketplace. The Wall Street Journal has the story; here's an excerpt: "Americans like to compete on a level playing field. All the players should have an equal opportunity to win based on their competitive merits, not on some artificial imbalance that gives someone or some group a special advantage. We think this idea should be applied to energy producers. They all should bear the full costs of the use of the energy they provide. Most of these costs are included in what it takes to produce the energy in the first place, but they vary greatly in the price imposed on society by the pollution they emit and its impact on human health and well-being, the air we breathe and the climate we create. We should identify these costs and see that they are attributed to the form of energy that causes them. At the same time, we should seek out the many forms of subsidy that run through the entire energy enterprise and eliminate them. In their place we propose a measure that could go a long way toward leveling the playing field: a revenue-neutral tax on carbon, a major pollutant..."

Study: "Working Together" Won't Fix Climate Change. It's in our DNA to collaborate on big challenges, right? Not so much, argues this article at Salon; here's an excerpt: "When it comes to climate change, we’re all in this dilemma together, and forcefully addressing it will require collaboration and cooperation. A stirring sentiment, but if you’re looking to spur white Americans to action, it’s actually counterproductive. That’s the conclusion of a Stanford University research team, which found invoking the idea of interdependence undermined the motivation of European-American students to take a course in environmental sustainability. The researchers, led by MarYam Hamedani of Stanford’s Center for Comparative Studies in Race and Ethnicity, argue that in mainstream European-American culture, independence functions as a “foundational schema” — that is, an underlying design or blueprint that guides behavior..."

Photo credit above: AP/Ian Joughin.

Schwarzenegger: California's Silent Disaster. Here's an excerpt of an Op-Ed in the L.A. Times from the former governor of California: "I will always remember the day I woke to the news that more than 2,000 fires were burning in California. I thought I must not have heard correctly. Two thousand fires? How could that be? In the end, the state's brave firefighters, joined by contingents from out of state, won the battle. But not before 11 emergency declarations were issued and more than 400,000 acres burned. Countless lives and livelihoods were ruined. Today, there's a new disaster looming, and although it's not as riveting or dramatic as walls of flames and billowing black smoke, it needs our immediate attention. The draft National Climate Assessment, now being circulated for comment and scheduled for release this year by the U.S. Global Change Research Program, presents a sobering vision of the world that awaits us if we don't act..." (image: NASA).

Major Storm Central USA (tornado potential, heavy wet snow, growing flood risk)

Sputtering Spring

"This isn't funny Paul - we're not Duluth". That was my Saturday evening; more stares & glares than friendly smiles. Our tortured spring hits rock-bottom later this week; the second week of April's weather looking like something out of early March.

An intense storm spins up tornadoes from Kansas City to Dallas, while 1-2 feet of snow buries the Dakotas. I expect enough warm air aloft for rain into Tuesday evening. And then it gets interesting.

Models suggest enough sub-freezing air in the lowest few thousand feet of the atmosphere for some freezing rain (glaze ice) and sleet (ice pellets) by Wednesday- maybe a few inches of slush on lawns & fields by Thursday. Plowable?

It's too early to speculate on amounts, but whatever falls should be pretty much gone by Friday afternoon. The sun is too high in the sky for slush to linger.

1-2" of precipitation may fall this week close to home, complicating the flood forecast - the ground is still frozen, making run-off and rapid urban, stream and river flooding a greater risk.

A few months ago I predicted a late spring, a slow easing of drought, and a cooler, wetter, more severe summer. I stand by that prediction.

Short-term I may need a better disguise and more therapy: long-range models hint at another slush-storm in one week.

I hope I'm wrong.

A Potentially Very Wet Week. Models are printing out well over 1" of liquid precipitation by Wednesday; mostly rain for the Twin Cities, but a wintry mix can't be ruled out by midweek. The local NWS office is predicting 1.2" by Wednesday midday. Graphic: Iowa State.

May I Please Be Excused? I'm tempted to drive to MSP International and hop the first southbound flight. Anywhere. Not sure I want to be here Wednesday and Thursday. The natives are already restless - if we do pick up a few inches of slush by Thursday that might just push people over the edge. Rain today, Tuesday and the first half of Wednesday. If we do see a wintry mix it would probably come from Wednesday PM into Thursday. Saturday looks dry, a cold rain pushing back into Minnesota Sunday - right now it looks warm enough for rain, at least in the Twin Cities, based on ECMWF guidance.

Skew-T. The projected temperature sounding (in red) by 2 pm Wednesday shows a relatively shallow layer of sub-freezing air in the lowest few thousand feet of the atmosphere. Warm ari aloft will melt rain, which may re-freeze into sleet or even wet snow by Wednesday afternoon and night.

Latest from Alerts Broadcaster:

A major storm is spinning up for the central USA, capable of impacting towns from Denver to Dallas to the Twin Cities from Monday thru Thursday of this week with a wide variety of potentially disruptive weather:

- Significant tornado outbreak possible the first half of this week. Tuesday looks like the most violent day from Dallas and Oklahoma City to Kansas City and St. Louis, with a few large, violent, long-track tornadoes expected.

- Heavy wet snow will fall from Wyoming and Colorado's Front Range across the Dakotas, potentially plowable amounts of slush into part of Minnesota, Wisconsin and Lower Michigan by Wednesday and Thursday. Yes, this is unusual for the second week of April.

- Flood risk. The ground is still frozen over most of the Upper Midwest - any heavy rain will run off into streets, streams and rivers. I expect river flooding (and urban flooding) to be on the increase over the next 72 hours. Details:

Latest Watches. Denver may pick up as much as 5-10" of snow from Monday night into Tuesday. Blizzard Watches are posted for portions of Colorado, a Winter Storm Watch from the Central Rockies into the Dakotas and western Nebraska. Severe thunderstorms are already popping up over the Plains; the potential for severe weather will increase into Tuesday.

Tuesday Severe Storm Potential. Severe storms are likely over the Plains Monday into Wednesday, but I suspect Tuesday will be the busiest day as dynamics converge for a few large, potentially violent tornadoes from Austin and Dallas northward to Tulsa, Wichita, Kansas City, St. Louis, even Des Moines. The timing is right - I expect SPC to upgrade the risk to "moderate" within 24 hours.

Facilities On Alert. There is a 30% probability of severe weather (58 mph+ winds and/or 1" hail or larger) within 25 miles of metropolitan areas from Dallas and Oklahoma City to Kansas City and Topeka on Tuesday. I expect numerous Tornado Watches and Warnings, with the greatest potential for damaging winds between 3 pm and 8 pm.

Cities Potentially Impacted Tuesday. Here is a close-up of the significant severe threat area, which includes Waco, Wichita Falls, Wichita, Springfield and the suburbs of Kansas City.

Serious Slush Potential. Chicago should avoid any snowy headaches, but enough snow to shovel and plow is expected from Denver into South Dakota and western and central Minnesota. A few inches of slush may accumulate on lawns and fields in the Twin Cities Wednesday night into Thursday - most freeways should stay wet.
 

Sliding Into A Much Wetter Pattern - Growing Flood Risk. The GFS model is printing out impressive rainfall amounts with this storm by Friday evening, as much as 4" from near Omaha and Lincoln to Des Moines; some 2-3" amounts near Milwaukee, Chicago and Detroit. This may complicate river flooding later this week. Areas prone to urban, stream and river flooding will want to keep a close eye on conditions and have contingency plans ready to go.

Flood Update. Major flooding is already underway near Devil's Lake, North Dakota, and along the East Fork of the Black River in Wisconsin. I expect river flooding to intensify later this week - the greatest concern is along the Red River flowing through Fargo, where a crest is still probably 1-2 weeks away. Urban flooding later this week is most likely from Des Moines into the Twin Cities, Milwaukee and possibly the greater Chicago area.

Summary: The calendar says April, but the weather maps still look like something out of early March. An unusually intense spring storm will elevate the risk of heavy wet snow (western Plains and Upper Mississippi Valley), significant river flooding from some 1-4" rainfall amounts, and a substantial risk of severe storms, hail, damaging winds and a few large, violent tornadoes by Tuesday from Dallas to Kansas City. After peaking in the 60s earlier today Denver will see 5-10" snow Monday night into Tuesday; I expect numerous delays and cancellations at KDEN Tuesday. We'll watch the storm unfold and provide updates as needed.

Impact Based Warnings. Minnesota is one of 14 states that will see new, enhanced wording of tornado warnings, to try to better reflect and communicate the risks to consumers in the potential path. Details from NOAA's Central Region: "An experimental National Weather Service warning enhancement will be used across much of the central U.S. this thunderstorm season (beginning April 1). This is an expansion of a smaller NWS experiment that began in Kansas and Missour in 2012. The Impact Based Warning (IBW) experimental product is an effort to better communicate severe weather threats within National Weather Service warnings. While the basic function of Severe Thunderstorm and Tornado warnings will remain the same, additional enhanced information will be provided within the warning to provide additional expected "impact" information. The goals are to provide more information through the warnings in order to facilitate improved public response and decision making, and to better meet societal needs in the most life-threatening weather events. This effort is in response to key findings from recent service assessments of devastating tornadoes in 2011, particularly the EF-5 tornado in Joplin, MO..."

 

 

NOAA Needs Your Help. The local Twin Cities National Weather Service is interested in knowing whether the ground is still frozen in your neighborhood. Why does this matter? The extent and depth of lingering frost in the ground will help to determine rainfall run-off rates next week, when we may see a significant storm. This will impact not only the potential for minor flash flooding in the Twin Cities, but more significant river flooding, especially on the Red River in the weeks to come. Details: "As we head in to Spring, potential flooding is a primary concern across Minnesota and Wisconsin.  We could use your help in determining if the ground is still frozen, or if there has been some partial thaw of the ground.  As you can see on the map below, we have quite a large area with no data across southern MN and western WI.  Visit our Facebook Page or send us a message via Twitter @NWSTwinCities and let us know what the ground condition is like at your location."

Median Lake Ice Out Dates. The interactive map above shows median dates when most of the ice is off Minnesota's lakes. For Nokomis the date is April 5. Not this year. Map courtesy of the Minnesota DNR.

HydroClim Update. Here are a few bullet points from the latest update, courtesy of the Minnesota State Climate Office and the Minnesota office of the DNR:

• Snow depths range from zero in the southern one-third of Minnesota to over 20 inches west central Minnesota, north central Minnesota, and in the Lake Superior highlands.
  [see: NWS Snow Depth Estimation Map  |  Snow Depth Maps]
• The amount of water content in the snow pack is estimated to be in excess of five inches in some west central and north central Minnesota counties. The large amount of water on the landscape, lying upon an impervious frozen surface, has led to a high risk for major flooding in the Red River basin.
  [see: NWS Snow Water Equivalent Estimation Map]
• The U.S. Geological Survey and Minnesota DNR report that stream discharge values vary widely across the state. After the initial flush of snow melt runoff recedes, stream discharge values will quickly fall below historical medians unless there is a very wet spring.
  [see: USGS Stream Flow Conditions  |  MNDNR Weekly Stream Flow Maps and Tables]
• Water levels on most Minnesota lakes are low due to the dry summer and autumn of 2012. Lake Superior's water level is approximately one foot lower than its historical average for this time of year.

* latest modeled snow depth from NOAA is here.

Weather, Disaster Agencies Turn To Twitter, Facebook, YouTube. Bill McAuliffe at The Star Tribune takea look at The Star Tribune takes a look at social media's impact on weather coverage, specifically severe storm tracking and communication. As I say in the article, I suspect it's a mixed blessing: nice to have more information, but be sure you're following "trusted sources" to get reliable, actionable information. Here's an excerpt: "With the season for quick-hitting storms about to barge into Minnesota, social media are about to become a key news tool. Indeed, public agencies concerned with natural disasters are glomming onto social media like so many teenagers, attracted to its instant, two-way connectivity. “It’s fast. It’s direct. It enhances our ability to deliver the message,” said Bruce Gordon, director of communications for the Minnesota Department of Public Safety, whose 12 public information officers post breaking news, safety tips and even human interest stories on Facebook, Twitter and YouTube..."

38 Things Minnesotans Are Too Nice To Brag About. O.K. This is kind of funny, but rated PG. Buyer beware. Photo and article courtesy of Buzzfeed.

America's Most Bike-Friendly City? Minneapolis. At least according to Bicycle Magazine, which writes: "Despite the cold wintertime climate, Minneapolis has a thriving bike community. It has 120 miles of on- and off-street bicycle facilities, plus indoor bike parking and other cycling-friendly facilities."

Climate Stories....

When It Rains It Pours: Study Confirms Climate Change Will Keep Driving More Intense Precipitation. Here's a clip from a story at Think Progress: "...The NOAA study, published in Geophysical Research Letters, found that extreme precipitation events will become more intense this century as the globe continues to warm. Extra moisture expected from that warming will be the dominant factor fueling this increase in extreme precipitation, with a 20 to 30 percent more precipitation in the Northern Hemisphere by 2099.

The paper looked at three factors that go into the maximum precipitation value possible in any given location: moisture in the atmosphere, upward motion of air in the atmosphere, and horizontal winds. The team examined climate model data to understand how a continued course of high greenhouse gas emissions would influence the potential maximum precipitation. While greenhouse gas increases did not substantially change the maximum upward motion of the atmosphere or horizontal winds, the models did show a 20-30 percent increase in maximum moisture in the atmosphere, which led to a corresponding increase in the maximum precipitation value..."

Killing Pipeline Is Key To Climate Change Fight. Here's an excerpt of an Op-Ed written by climate scientist James Hansen in The Register-Guard: "...The draft review suggests the climate impacts of the pipeline are limited because the project will not substantially “induce growth in the rate of extraction in the oil sands.” This narrow analysis misses the mark. Researchers now say that the Alberta tar sands contain 360 to 510 billion tons of carbon — more than double that of all oil burned in human history. While only a fraction is considered economically recoverable right now, we humans are genius at finding new and better ways to dig junk out of the ground. Digging begets more digging. Once the big spigot is open, TransCanada will have every incentive to milk the massive tar sands basin for all it is worth..." (image: Clean Technica).

Getting Serious About A Texas-Size Drought. Here's an excerpt from The New York Times (subscription may be required): "...Other desperately dry states in the Midwest and West are facing similar challenges. Drought has hurt farmers in New Mexico and reduced California’s crucial mountain snowpack. Even the Great Lakes are at worryingly low levels. Drought conditions in the western half of the country are likely to persist at least through June, federal forecasters have warned. Over time, as the effects of climate change become more pronounced, hotter weather and longer dry spells will continue to threaten water supplies that are essential for development. Already the drought has led to consideration of wild, expensive ideas, like piping water hundreds of miles from the Missouri River to the parched Colorado River basin. Water traditionally has been mostly a state or local issue because communities draw supplies from nearby rivers or aquifers. But increasingly it is becoming a national one. Economies will rise and fall on the availability of water, whose price is inexorably marching upward. Litigation and rural-urban water conflicts are likely to intensify throughout the West and Midwest..."

Graphic credit above: Wesley Bedrosian

No Debate In The Scientific Community. Graph above courtesy of Greg Laden at scienceblogs.com.

How U.S. Energy Policy Fails To Address Climate Change. The Christian Science Monitor reports; here's an excerpt: "What never gets asked and answered definitively in the policy debate is this: What should our ultimate goal be and when should we aim to achieve it? The first part of the question has elicited so many answers from so many constituencies that I may not be able to represent them all here. But here is an attempt to categorize the main lines of thinking concerning the country’s energy goals:

1. Seek the cheapest price for energy with the implication that environmental consequences should not be tallied as part of the cost.
2. Complete a transition to renewable energy as quickly as possible while drastically reducing the burning of fossil fuels.
3. Replace all fossil fuel energy with nuclear power..."

Photo credit above: "Wind turbines of the Smoky Hill Wind Farm dot the countryside near Ellsworth, Kan. Perhaps the simplest way to manage the energy transition we must undergo would be to impose a high and ever rising tax on carbon, Cobb writes." Orlin Wagner/AP/File

Global Warming: 1,600 Years Of Ice In Andes Melted In 25 Years. Here's an excerpt from frenchtribune.com :  "Providing one of the signs of global warming, glacial ice in the Peruvian Andes has started melting. A structure that took 1,600 years to build has fallen into the grip of high temperatures and melted within 25 years. The research has been conducted by Lonnie G. Thompson, the Ohio State University glaciologist. According to him, his team has worked from time to time on the Quelccaya ice cap for decades. Findings have been published in a paper that has been released online. Global warming is one of the results of man-made activities. This recent report has highlighted that the problem of global warming has reached its peak. This time the proof has been provided by margins of the Quelccaya ice cap in Peru..."

Even Doubter Wants To Prepare For Global Warming. Mother Nature News has the article; here's the intro: "Some still insist that climate change is a hoax, but the vast majority of Americans believe the globe is warming, a new survey finds — and they want to prepare for the worst. In fact, even 60 percent of climate-change doubters favored preparations, the survey found. Researchers collected opinions between March 3 and March 18 via an online questionnaire, using a nationally representative sample of 1,174 American adults, both English and Spanish speaking. The survey asked about climate-change beliefs and support for adaptation strategies to help coastal areas cope with the rising sea levels and frequent, intense storms that a warmer world could bring. The results showed that 82 percent of Americans are in favor of preparation..."

Photo credit above: "Sea level rise is swamping coasts. Rodanthe in the Outer Banks of North Carolina is pictured."(Photo: Andrew Kemp, Yale University)

Federal Study: Global Warming Means More "Extreme" Rains. Basic physics: warm up the atmosphere, even by a few degrees, and you increase the capacity of the sky overhead to hold more water vapor (which is itself another greenhouse gas). The result? More fuel for extreme rains (and snows). The Hill has the story; here's the intro: "Global warming will make cases of “extreme” rainfall even more intense and worsen flood risks, federal researchers say in the latest warning that climate change will likely worsen violent weather. A new federally led study explores how growing amounts of atmospheric water vapor due to global warming will affect what is called probable maximum precipitation. The report, released by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, forecasts an “accelerated water cycle with heavier extreme rains.” The study shows “a 20-30 percent expected increase in the maximum precipitation possible over large portions of the Northern Hemisphere by the end of the 21st century if greenhouse gases continue to rise at a high emissions rate,” NOAA said..."

Photo credit above: "The flooded Red River surrounds houses near Fargo, N.D., in 2010. Scientists say climate change will produce more intense storms, increasing the risk of damaging floods." (M. Spencer Green / Assoicated Press / March 21, 2010)

* The Los Angeles Times has another perspective on the potential for more extreme rains here.

Rising Seas Swallow 8 Cities In These Climate Change GIFS. Mashable has the story; here's an excerpt: "Climate change and global warming may cause sea levels to rise and flood coastal cities across the world. Over the past century, the Global Mean Sea Level has risen by 4 to 8 inches. And according to estimates by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (PDF), it will keep rising between 8 inches and 6.6 feet by 2100. How will the world look if that happens? In November of 2012, The New York Times published interactive maps displaying the effects of the sea level rising, in a series titled "What Could Disappear?" The maps show how much land the sea will claim in the future, if it rises by 5, 12, and 25 feet. Nickolay Lamm, a 24-year-old researcher and artist saw the interactive maps and wondered: "What would this actually look like in real life?" Lamm told Mashable in an email interview that "the only imagery I had of sea level rise came from Hollywood." So he decided to put his skills to work..."