Thursday, February 6th: Nor'Easter to Bring Heaviest Snow of the Season!

Friday Nor'Easter There is a lot of chatter about an end of the week storm that could wallop parts of the Northeast with heavy wind and snow. Winter Weather Headlines have already been posted in advance of what looks like a plowable/crippling snow event!

 Weather Headlines
The National Weather Service has issued a number of weather headlines for the Northeast including BLIZZARD WATCHES! Expect additional headlines to be issued and upgraded as the end of the week nears.

Snow Potentail
Not sure I've ever seen colors like this before! The RPM model from Wednesday was suggesting totals of 1ft. to 2ft. This is what is posted on the NWS Boston Weather Service site:
...A POTENTIAL HISTORIC WINTER STORM AND BLIZZARD IS EXPECTED TO
DROP 1 TO 2 FEET OF SNOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY...


Remembering the "Northeastern Blizzard of 1978"
Interestingly, we had another massive storm back in 1978 that dumped over 30" of snow in parts of the Northeast from February 5th-7th, 1978. The front page of "The Evening Bullentin" called it the "Worst snow storm in R.I. history" - Providence, R.I. had it's all-time record snowfall of 27.6"

February 5th-7th, 1978 Snowfall Map
The map below comes from the National Weather Service. Note the darker blue (20" to 30") across parts of CT, RI, MA... there were even a few spots that had 30"+ !!! WOW! Providence, RI had 27.6" - Boston, MA had 27.1" - Atlantic City, NJ had 20.1"
Keep in mind that there was another massive snow storm that hit the Ohio Valley and the Great Lakes region (The Great Blizzard of 1978) 2 weeks prior this!

The Proverbial "Calm Before the Storm" ?
Take a look at the webcam from Boston College earlier Wednesday. Note still a little snow on the ground from Tuesday's 0.6" - shortly after this was taken, most of the snow had melted! Through Tuesday, Boston had only seend 1.2" of snow this February, -15.2" below the normal snowfall for the season!

Boston Seasonal Snow Tallies
Bostonians may remember the lackluster winter of 2011-12 when only 9.3" of snow fell! We're doing a little better than that this year. The last BIG snowfall season was 2010-2011, but was quite a bit below the record of 107.6" set in 1995-96. BTW, an average season sees nearly 42"

Snowfall Season to Date
Take a look at the snowfall season to date (numbers updated thru Tuesday, February 5th) - note the measly 1.5" there in Washington DC!

Seasonal Snow From Normal

Here are some of the other seasonal snow deficits from across the region. If current forecasts hold, some could actually be on the positive side by Saturday!

Clipper Train & Clipper Caboose
Since late last week, we've been dealing with those pesky "clipper systems" you've probably heard too much about lately. Well, the last car in the clipper train (Clipper Caboose) rolled through Minnesota on Wednesday. That was the last one before a potential winter storm moves in late weekend/early next week.

Minnesota Snow Reports
The "Clipper Caboose" was responsible for another 1" to 2" across parts of Minnesota.

2 Storms Collide... Create 1 BIG storm!
The two ingredients responsible for the end of the week Nor'Easter are highlighted below. A fast moving clipper across the Great Lakes Region will combine with a developing low pressure system across the Lower Mississippi Valley.

End of Week Nor'Easter
The image below shows the end result of the two mergings storms. The pink colors indicate HEAVY snow potential across some of the large cities in the Northeast. Note also the white lines, those are isobars or lines of equal air pressure. The more tightly packed those guys are, the stronger the winds blow! This has the potential to be a real doozy!

EARLY Look at Snowfall Potentail
Here's an EARLY look at snowfall potential. THIS FORECAST WILL LIKELY CHANGE as the storms merge and more of the fine details storm coming together (i.e. storm track, speed and temperatures). However, the EARLY looks suggests up to 1ft. OR MORE in some spots!

Another Developing Snow Storm?
We've also been watching a developing storm system over the Pacific, which was two idividual lows that have merged and are on the way into the Southwestern corner of the nation!

Weekend Snow Event...
It appears that this will move through the mid-section of the nation over the weekend/early next week time frame. We're still on track for some accumuluating snow across parts of the Central Plains into the Upper Midwest through Monday.

GFS Snow Totals
This too is an early look at snowfall potentail over the weekend/early next week. The track on this system is still a bit uncertain, so this forecast will likely change as well. Keep in mind that the storm we're talking about here as of Wednesday, hadn't even moved over the contiguous 48 yet. Weather models tend to get a little more accurate when there is MORE DATA from the system being injected into the model equations (i.e. storm system over land vs. water).

Thanks for checking in and have a great rest of your week!
Don't forget to follow me on Twitter @TNelsonWNTV

Wednesday, February 6th: Developing Nor'Easter

Tuesday (February 5th) was National Weatherperson's Day and National Pancake Day... How could I forget about Pancake Day?!?! National Weatherperson's Day coincides with John Jeffries birthday 2/5/1744 who was one of the United States' first weather observers who took daily weather observations from 1774 to 1816.

Fresh Snow in February

Thanks to JohnDee.com for the picture below out of Allouez, MI north of Houghton on the Keeweenaw peninsula. Nice to see all that fresh snow John! Hope it keeps up!! Take a look at the wonderful and extensive list of webcams on JohnDee.com HERE:

Chicago Snow

Chicago had more snow Tuesday making it a nice string of snow so far this month. Get this, through Monday, Chicago had seen 5.2" of snow through the first 4 days of the month, which is more than half of what they've seen all season! Even with the recent snow, Chicago is still nearly a foot below normal for the season!

Snow Tallies

Here are some of the recent snow tallies (updated through Monday). Thanks to the persistent Northwesterly flow, we've seen quite a bit of snow through the first few days of the month!

2013 vs. 2012

I thought this was interesting. Take a look at the snow cover from February 1st, 2012 to 2013. Note how big of a difference there is this year vs. the lackluster winter of 2012!

More Snow Stats

These clipper system have been dropping into the Lower 48 across the High Plains/Upper Midwest. Since Friday, there have been 4 clippers that have run through the area. The last clipper in the clipper train... the clipper caboose, will move through Wednesday/Thursday.

Snow Cover 2012 vs. 2013

The image below is the snow cover difference this year to last. Note how different the landscape looks here too!

Clipper Caboose

The clipper caboose will be the last car in the clipper train since it all started late last week. In all, there will have been 5 clipper events that have dropped snow since the beginning of February.

Clipper Caboose Drops In...

The image below shows the accumulated precipitation from the High Plains to the Great Lakes through PM Thursday as our final clipper system drops in the region. Note the heavier band that looks to set up over Wisconsin and Lower Michigan.

Snow Potential

Note how snow amount ramp up over the Central Great Lakes Region Wednesday into Thursday as the storm pushes east. It appears that 6"+ may be possible in the Central Great Lakes Region through that time!

Nor'Easter?

Look what happens to the storm as it slides east... A Nor'Easter? There are still quite a few uncertainties here, but the end of the week/early weekend could get quite interesting for folks in the Northeast. Shovel potential is increasing!!

GFS Snowfall Forecast

Looks at the extended snowfall forecast for the Northeast through AM Saturday. The orange color indicates snowfall potential of 6" or more! Keep in mind that there will be wind with the system as well, so blowing snow would be a problem if indeed this system holds it's course.

Next Big Storm?

A storm system wrapping up in the Pacific could also make for an interesting weather scenario in the middle part of the country by late weekend/early next week. A low pressure system is forecast to lift northeast into the Great Lakes Region with heavy snow on it's northwest flank and strong/severe storms across the Lower Mississippi Valley. The image below is the latest ECWMF (European Model) update. It still shows a fairly robust system on Sunday!

By Monday, the storm looks to be wrapping up over the Great Lakes with lots of wind. Keep in mind that this forecast WILL LIKELY CHANGE, so stay tuned!

Humorous Forecast??

I just about fell off my chair when I saw this meteogram... DON'T BUY INTO WHAT GFS IS SELLING!!! This forecast WILL CHANGE... Thought I'd just share what kind of *wishcasting* is going on by weather models near you.

Thanks for checking in and have a great rest of your week.

Don't forget to follow me on Twitter @TNelsonWNTV

Tuesday, February 5th: No Rest for the Weary

Northern Lights
Great picture from James Helmericks out of Alaska (Shared by the National Weather Service Alaska Facebook page)!
"While out seeing how many stars I could see in Orion for the Globe at Night project the Aurora came out to dance. Took a photo of the Colville Village cotton shelter and drifts under the aurora."

International Falls Record Cold?

Question: 
A major Dutch paper reported on the recent cold weather streak and mentioned that International Falls had a chance to break the low temperature record.
As ex-Minnesota residents (1968-1980) we are interested whether this happened indeed.
Regards
Hanneke and Bert Potjer

Thanks for your question Hanneke and Bert. I looked at the low temperatures recorded in International Falls, MN thru January and could find no record low temps. They got close, but no record lows were tied or broken.

The coldest February low temp was -39F on the 2nd. The record low for that day is -45 set in 1996.

 January's coldest overnight low in International Falls was -36, but not a record. The record for that date was -40 set in 1966.

All-Time Cold in International Falls?
Here are some of the all-time coldest ever recorded in International Falls since 1897.

Coldest Temp in Minnesota?
The coldest temperature in Minnesota ever recorded was -60F set February 6th, 1996. It was a cold winter in 1996, in fact, according to the Great Lakes Aquarium, Lakes Superior was nearly 100% frozen over.
The image below was taken early March 2009 when Lake Superior was nearly 100% frozen over... pretty cool! I actually remember this quite well because one of the Duluth High School Hockey teams had a practice on Lake Superior!

Clipper-Fest Continues
Take a look at the webcam from earlier Monday out of Chicago! Fast moving clipper systems have been sailing through the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes Region since late last week. Each system has dropped a couple/few inches of fluffy snow in a narrow band, which has already added up to shovelable/plowable amounts since the start of the month. Snow AM Monday led to substantial flight delays in Chicago, which may be possible again Tuesday as another clipper rolls in.

Monday Snow Totals
Here are some of the snow totals that were tallied across Chicago from PM Sunday-AM Monday.

 Monday Snow Totals Across the Twin Cities
The Clipper that rolled through PM Sunday-AM Monday across the Twin Cities was responsible for another couple/few inches of snow as well.

Fresh Snow
One thing about fresh snow is that it really brightens the landscape doesn't it? I have to admit, I actually kind of like not having to stare at ugly brown snow piles. The image below suggest how much snow we've seen since the start of the month! Keep in mind that snow tallies from Sunday-Monday haven't been added into the data below.

Snow Season to Date
Interestingly, we've seen nearly half the seaonal snow in Chicago so far this month and more is on the way!

Seasonal Snow Deficit
Despite the recent snowfall as of late, we're still quite a bit behind schedule. There are still several spots with large season snow deficits. It appears that we'll be making up for lost time through the rest of the week and potentially again late weekend.

Cold Blog Steers Clippers
Low temperatures Monday morning revealed the clipper storm track pretty well. These fast moving (fairly week) systems are riding the edge of the Arctic air, which is bottled up north of the Great Lakes and around the Hudson Bay.

Clipper-Fest Continues

We're not quite done with clippers just yet. We've got at least 2 more before the weather pattern chances this weekend. The image below suggests the additional snow from PM Monday-PM Wednesday. The darker blue across northern Minnesota would suggest the possibility of nearly 4" to 6" through that time.

Weekend Storm System...

Take a look at the storm system over the Pacific Ocean. This is going to be the next system that makes waves across the mid-section of the nation by late weekend/early next week.

Late Weekend Storm

Here's the storm progged by late Sunday/AM Monday over the middle part of the country. Note the heavier snow swath on it's northwestern flank. This could bring shovelable/plowable snow from the Central Plains to the Great Lakes.

Differences in Model Runs

It is important to keep in mind that this is a developing storm and the forecast WILL CHANGE!!! The image below was the 6pm Sunday ECMWF model run.

The image below shows the same storm, but this is a little newer run from 6am Monday... The other thing we'll have to keep an eye on is the severe weather potential across the Lower Mississippi Valley.

Thanks for checking in and have a great rest of you week!

Don't forget to follow me on Twitter @TNelsonWNTV