December 6: Coldest Air of Winter 10 Days Away?

The Cruelest Month

No, January in Minnesota is not for the timid. But we're enjoying half a winter: plenty of cold, but legitimate snow storms have become as rare as a Congressional compromise.

Remember when it would snow, fairly reliably, every 2-4 days? Back when weather was leading the local news every other day? 3 inches on the ground; 16.8 inches for the winter - almost 7 inches below average, to date.

Commutes have been easier, with 3 days of an inch or more of snow (including that big dump of 10.5 inches on December 9). By now we should have picked up 6 days with an inch or more of snowy goodness.

Droughts are stubborn things. We may be days away from barge traffic grinding to a halt on the Mississippi. I keep waiting for the pattern to change; for southern moisture to reach our lofty latitude. I'll send up a flare when that glorious day arrives.

In the meantime Sunday shivers give way to a symphony of gurgling drain spouts and drippy icicles this week; 3 or 4 days near 32 F.

A sloppy southern storm brushes us with a little rain and drizzle late Thursday - a push of cold air next week sweeping any moisture into the Great Lakes; a few subzero nights expected the third week of January.

Good sleeping weather.

Midwinter Drizzle. NOAA data shows a high of 34 F. on Thursday, temperatures in the lowest mile of the atmosphere above freezing, meaning light rain or drizzle.

January Thaw. The models are in good agreement - you will regain some feeling in your fingers and toes next week, with as many as 4-5 days at or just above freezing. As we lose what little snow we have on the ground temperatures stand a better chance of reaching mid-30s by Wednesday and Thursday.

 

European Guidance. ECMWF data shows highs near freezing by tomorrow afternoon, possibly mid 30s Wednesday and Thursday. Most of the moisture stays east (again) on Thursday, a chance of a little light rain and drizzle. Colder air arrives next weekend, shoving the storm track farther east, away from Minnesota.

More Data On The January Thaw. Dr. Mark Seeley has some insight into the (almost) annual upward blip in temperatures in his weekly WeatherTalk Newsletter: "...Most residents of the Twin Cities area consider the January thaw to be a given each year. They know it will come, just not precisely when. This time around it looks like next Monday through Thursday (Jan 7-10) may bring a thaw period. Indeed for many central and southern Minnesota locations a January thaw is quite common. The definition of a January thaw is variable. Some consider it to be any single day with a temperature above 32 degrees F. But consequences associated with a January thaw, like loss of snow cover, melting and drying of street surfaces and sidewalks, softening of lake ice, etc are generally not realized unless temperatures rise above the freezing mark for two or more days. Using this as a sorting criteria we can look at the historical frequency of such temperatures for various locations in Minnesota. These frequencies of January thaws (listed below) indeed show great reliability in most of southern Minnesota, and even parts of central Minnesota, but more like a 50/50 probability in the northern sections of the state..."

 

 

Thursday: Warm Enough For Rain/Drizzle. European model guidance valid Thursday evening shows a little light rain and drizzle into southeastern and east central Minnesota, heavier rain from St. Louis it Chicago. Yes, it should be warm enough for rain on January 10. Map courtesy of WSI.

Another Close Encounter Early Next Week? The push of cold air behind Thursday's light rain/drizzle event may be strong enough to set up a storm track late Sunday and Monday - one that's just 100-200 miles too far east for significant snow in the Twin Cities. So close, and yet so far...

Coldest Air Of Winter? The models are trending colder again for the third week of January; the latest GFS run hinting at 3-6 subzero nights, maybe even a subzero daytime high or two, with the very coldest weather predicted between January 16-19. Still time to troll your favorite web site for a discount fare to somewhere toasty.

An Icy Landscape. NASA's 250 meter resolution MODIS imagery shows the dark gray smudge of the Twin Cities metro. Flat, undeveloped farmland shows up as bright white, as does Lake Minnetonka and the Inner Lakes south of Minneapolis.

"Surreal Warmth" in 2012. Here's another 2:30 minute video recap on YouTube, looking back at the extraordinary warmth of 2012, courtesy of WeatherNation TV.

Warm Year: 2012. Here's an excerpt of a great overview of record warmth across the great state of Minnesota last year - courtesy of the Minnesota Climatology Working Group: "2012 will finish in a tie with 1931 as the warmest year on record in the Twin Cities and will range from the warmest to third warmest on record depending on the location around the region. For so long, it appeared like 2012 would be the warmest year on record for the Twin Cities, but then winter decided to arrive as if on cue on December 21 and since then temperatures have been mostly below normal. As a result, the average temperature for the Twin Cities for 2012 will wind up to be 50.8 degrees, the same as the 50.8 degrees recorded in 1931. The 1981-2010 average temperature for the year is 46.3 degrees so 2012 will finish 4.5 degrees above normal. Every month of 2012 was above normal except October which finished 1.4 degrees below normal. March 2012 was 15.5 degrees above normal and greatly assisted in lifting the average temperature for 2012. The hottest day of 2012 in the Twin Cities was 102 degrees on July 6 and the coldest temperature of the year was -11 on January 19."

Twin Cities (1873-2012)

Rank Year Average
-----------------
1.   1931   50.8
     2012   50.8
3.   1987   49.7
4.   2006   49.3
5.   1998   48.8

How Long Will Minnesota's Drought Linger? State Climatologist Greg Spoden adds some personal thoughts to his monthly HydroClim summary: "It is reasonable to assume that the present drought status will remain relatively unchanged for the remainder of the winter. The historical average precipitation over the next two months is less than two inches and the topsoil is sealed by frost. Therefore, Minnesota will be highly dependent on spring rains to ease the situation. Without abundant spring rains, a number of critical drought issues involving public water supply, agriculture, horticulture, tourism, and others will rapidly surface early in the growing season." (the latest Minnesota Drought Monitor information is here).

Preliminary Data. NOAA NCDC data shows that January - November was the warmest on record for a big chunk of the USA. Every region in bright red experienced the warmest year in 118 years of record-keeping.

Region Chops Sandy Debris Down To Size. Here's an eye-opening clip from an article at The Wall Street Journal: "The immense task of leveling the mountains of debris left behind by Sandy is coming into focus two months after the historic superstorm ravaged the East Coast. In the end, the federal government estimates that 16 million cubic yards of debris piled up around New York and New Jersey—enough to fill the Empire State Building 16 times over—though more than half has yet to arrive at landfills..."

Photo credit above: "A aerial view of the damage in Mantoloking, N.J., caused by Hurricane Sandy, Oct. 31, 2012. President Barack Obama toured New Jersey's ravaged coastline with New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie in a display of big-government muscle and bipartisan harmony." (Doug Mills/The New York Times)

Earth At Night. National Geographic has a very nice view showing the proliferation of light pollution across the planet. Getting a clear look at astronomical targets has never been more challenging: "Luminous patches glow on a map of nighttime Earth created from satellite and ground data on scattered light as of 1996-97. The situation is even worse today. Based on calculations, two-thirds of humanity lives under skies polluted with light, and one-fifth can no longer see the Milky Way. Least affected? The Central African Republic."

Favorite pics....

Sun Pillar. Laura Everly Daugherty snapped this photo at Beaver Dam, Kentucky Saturday morning, ice crystals sparking a faintly visible column of light above the rising sun. Photo courtesy of WeatherNation TV.

Riding The Rails. Mike Hall captured this pic at Lewistown, Kentucky yesterday. Very nice.

Funnels Over Miami. @ComplexJesse snapped this photo of a developing funnel cloud over Miami International Airport Friday afternoon; courtesy of WeatherNation TV.

Climate Stories...

Climate Change Won't Wait. Here's an excerpt of an Op-Ed from Bill McKibbon in the Los Angeles Times: "...If he were serious, Obama would be doing more than just the obvious and easy. God knows he had his chances in 2012: the hottest year in the history of the continental United States, the deepest drought of his lifetime, and a melt of the Arctic so severe that the federal government's premier climate scientist declared it a "planetary emergency." In fact, he didn't even appear to notice those phenomena, even as people in the crowds greeting him along the campaign trail were fainting from the heat. Throughout campaign 2012, he kept declaring his love for an "all of the above" energy policy where, apparently, oil and natural gas were exactly as virtuous as sun and wind. Only at the very end of the campaign, when Superstorm Sandy seemed to present a political opening, did he even hint at seizing it. His people let reporters know on background that climate change would now be one of his three priorities for a second term (or maybe, post-Newtown, four). That's a start, I suppose, but it's a long way from concrete action..."

Full Page Ad To Appear in Hawaiian Newspaper Pressuring Obama On Climate Change. USnews.com has the story; here's the introduction: "As President Barack Obama wraps up his vacation to Hawaii, he'll be greeted with a full-page ad Saturday urging him to take action on climate change. The ad, appearing in Hawaii's main paper, the Honolulu Star-Advertiser, appeals to Obama's origins and legacy. "The 'aina is part of our legacy, Mr. President, and yours," the ad reads, using the Hawaiian word for "earth." "If we fail to act, rising sea levels, super storms, and droughts will forever change these islands, our nation and the world."

Ending The Silence On Climate Change. Check out the video at billmoyers.com: "Climate change communication expert Anthony Leiserowitz explains why climate change gets the silent treatment, and what we should do about it."

Facebook And The Rest Of Silicon Valley Could Be Wiped Out In 40 Years. Hype, or a real concern with rising sea levels? Here's an excerpt from a story at Business Insider: "While much of California's coastline is at risk of rising sea levels, things look particularly bad for the Bay Area. Silicon Valley is already 3-10 feet below sea level, and scientists say that seawater will rise 16 inches by 2050. By 2100, that number is supposed to jump to 65 inches, and the entire area will experience more frequent, hard-hitting storms. If the levees in place are destroyed or overwhelmed by a storm surge, one hard blow could put the 3 million people who live in Silicon Valley in a grisly Waterworld. "It's imminent," Mruz says. "There's no question in my mind; we're going to have to do something, at every spot around the Bay." Also at risk: Google, Yahoo, LinkedIn, Intel, Cisco, and Oracle. "Silicon Valley basically backs right up to the bay," Mruz told CW. "You have all of them, Yahoo, Google, all right there. Without some type of flood protection potentially in front of that, you could flood that whole area. You're talking billions of dollars..."

 

Scientists Link Global Warming To England's Rainiest Year On Record. This article at euractiv.com caught my eye; here's an excerpt: "Senior climate scientists are linking global warming to the UK Met Office's announcement yesterday (3 January) that 2012 was England’s rainiest year since records began. The weather service's numbers showed that due to slightly more seasonal figures in Wales and Scotland, the UK as a whole experienced its second wettest summer recorded. But four of the UK’s Top Five wettest years have now occurred since 2000, a statistic in line with the expectations of climatologists who model the effects of a warming world. “It is not just Britain but many other parts of northern Europe and north America that are getting wetter and there is a climate change component to it,” Kevin Trenberth told EurActiv over a phone line from the US National Center for Atmospheric Research in Boulder, Colorado..."

Climate Change: What's Faith Got To Do With It? Here is an excerpt of an article that resonated with me, from California's Whittier Daily News: "Throughout all of California and the rest of the country, the faith community has been working for many years to preach the gospel of good stewardship of our shared environment. Amid theological differences, we have fostered a shared sense of purpose and urgency that unites us in solidarity with our local and global communities, especially those most vulnerable to climate change. The action that results from this shared sense of purpose goes far beyond a congregation's four walls. People of faith bring shared principles - such as working for the common good, caring for our neighbors, and working for economic justice - into the public policy arena..."

Global Warming And Drought In The Midwest: Expect More Of The Same? Here's a snippet of a story at chicagomag.com: "The Midwest drought of 2012 has been one of the most expensive natural disasters of recent decades, with Mississippi River barge traffic on the verge of shutting down, and the Army Corps of Engineers blowing up underwater limestone to keep traffic moving:

‘If we were in the same conditions now, 30 years ago, we`d be running into problems much, much, sooner,’ Col. Hall said. The rock removal does stop traffic for 16 hours every day.  But the Coast Guard, the river`s `traffic cop`, unclogs the jam overnight. ‘During the time that the Army Corps contractors are removing rock, which is roughly 6:00am – 10:00pm at night, we gather up all the vessels that are waiting north and south,’ Capt. Teschenford said. ‘They actually do a quick survey of the area where rocks were removed and we open it up. ‘

January 5: Much-Needed January Thaw Brewing for Next Week

Midwinter Pause

"I like these cold, gray winter days. Days like these let you savor a bad mood" mused author Bill Watterson. Amen. And here in the Land of Low Weather Expectations 32 degrees (in January) is cause for noisy celebration. "Slush!" "Dripping icicles!" "I can feel my extremities!" We cool off into the low 20s today and Sunday - the real thaw kicks in starting Monday of next week.

The January Thaw is still something of a meteorological mystery. For some reason temperatures often spike 2-3 weeks after the Winter Solstice, especially east of the Mississippi. Temperatures thaw for a few days, before the coldest air of winter rushes south a week or two later. According to Dr. Mark Seeley these wondrous, if fleeting, thaws are more likely over southern Minnesota than up north.

Expect low 20s at game time in Green Bay - risk of a Purple Upset. We cool off this weekend before a 3-5 day spell at or above freezing next week. A southern storm pushes a cold rain into town next Thursday; a second disturbance may squeeze out some light snow on Friday.

I still expect 2-3 nights below zero from January 15-18. Nothing we can't handle.

Check out the blog for more on the January Thaw, Minnesota's deepening drought & a 2012 weather recap.

Looking forward to tracking Adrian Peterson on Doppler.

* photo above courtesy of Tim Wright, who snapped this photo near Sauk Rapids.

 

Green Bay Weather. Perfect weather for a Vikings victory. Will lightning strike twice, within the same week? The spread is 8 points, but I'm thinking....upset. Stranger things have happened - think positive. Weather should be a non-issue, a gametime temperature around 20-22 F. with a wind chill in the mid teens. Balmy for GRB. A few flurries are possible later tonight, maybe a dusting in Green Bay. More details from NOAA.

Predicted Highs Next Thursday. NOAA data shows highs in the low to mid 30s across most of central and southern Minnesota by next Thursday - fleeting hints of early March in the air.

Warming Trend. After a seasonably cool weekend (low 20s today and Sunday) the mercury rebounds next week, 4 days at or above 30 F. Right now Wednesday and Thursday look like the 2 mildest days; low to mid 30s possible.

European Guidance. ECMWF data suggests mid-30s next Wednesday, with a rain-snow mix possible next Thursday and Friday. Some (slushy) accumulation can't be ruled out late next week; it's much too early to even speculate about amounts.

More Data On The January Thaw. Dr. Mark Seeley has some insight into the (almost) annual upward blip in temperatures in his weekly WeatherTalk Newsletter: "...Most residents of the Twin Cities area consider the January thaw to be a given each year. They know it will come, just not precisely when. This time around it looks like next Monday through Thursday (Jan 7-10) may bring a thaw period. Indeed for many central and southern Minnesota locations a January thaw is quite common. The definition of a January thaw is variable. Some consider it to be any single day with a temperature above 32 degrees F. But consequences associated with a January thaw, like loss of snow cover, melting and drying of street surfaces and sidewalks, softening of lake ice, etc are generally not realized unless temperatures rise above the freezing mark for two or more days. Using this as a sorting criteria we can look at the historical frequency of such temperatures for various locations in Minnesota. These frequencies of January thaws (listed below) indeed show great reliability in most of southern Minnesota, and even parts of central Minnesota, but more like a 50/50 probability in the northern sections of the state..."

Weather Story. The local, Twin Cities office of the National Weather Service provided the graphic above, showing Minnesota in-between branches of the jet stream, a moist southerly river of high-speed air guiding storms well south of Minnesota, the northern branch blowing to our north, something of a quiet (Pacific) no-man's land over the Upper Midwest.

Thursday Slop-Storm? It's still too early to get specific, but the ECMWF model shows a moisture-laden southern storm tracking just south/east of Minnesota toward the end of next week. A rain-snow mix is possible over Minnesota, probably enough warm air aloft to prevent widespread heavy snowfall over the Twin Cities. It's too early to say with any confidence - parts of central and western Minnesota may see accumulating snow on Thursday. Map above valid Thursday evening courtesy of WSI.

Extended Outlook. I'm not buying the accumulating snow next weekend, at least not yet. But the models have been fairly consistent bringing another (brief) cold shot into Minnesota the third week of January; maybe 2-3 nights below zero between January 15-18. GFS guidance above.

An Icy Landscape. NASA's 250 meter resolution MODIS imagery shows the dark gray smudge of the Twin Cities metro. Flat, undeveloped farmland shows up as bright white, as does Lake Minnetonka and the Inner Lakes south of Minneapolis.

"Surreal Warmth" in 2012. Here's another 2:30 minute video recap on YouTube, looking back at the extraordinary warmth of 2012, courtesy of WeatherNation TV.

Warm Year: 2012. Here's an excerpt of a great overview of record warmth across the great state of Minnesota last year - courtesy of the Minnesota Climatology Working Group: "2012 will finish in a tie with 1931 as the warmest year on record in the Twin Cities and will range from the warmest to third warmest on record depending on the location around the region. For so long, it appeared like 2012 would be the warmest year on record for the Twin Cities, but then winter decided to arrive as if on cue on December 21 and since then temperatures have been mostly below normal. As a result, the average temperature for the Twin Cities for 2012 will wind up to be 50.8 degrees, the same as the 50.8 degrees recorded in 1931. The 1981-2010 average temperature for the year is 46.3 degrees so 2012 will finish 4.5 degrees above normal. Every month of 2012 was above normal except October which finished 1.4 degrees below normal. March 2012 was 15.5 degrees above normal and greatly assisted in lifting the average temperature for 2012. The hottest day of 2012 in the Twin Cities was 102 degrees on July 6 and the coldest temperature of the year was -11 on January 19."

Twin Cities (1873-2012)

Rank Year Average
-----------------
1.   1931   50.8
     2012   50.8
3.   1987   49.7
4.   2006   49.3
5.   1998   48.8

How Long Will Minnesota's Drought Linger? State Climatologist Greg Spoden adds some personal thoughts to his monthly HydroClim summary: "It is reasonable to assume that the present drought status will remain relatively unchanged for the remainder of the winter. The historical average precipitation over the next two months is less than two inches and the topsoil is sealed by frost. Therefore, Minnesota will be highly dependent on spring rains to ease the situation. Without abundant spring rains, a number of critical drought issues involving public water supply, agriculture, horticulture, tourism, and others will rapidly surface early in the growing season." (the latest Minnesota Drought Monitor information is here).

Preliminary Data. NOAA NCDC data shows that January - November was the warmest on record for a big chunk of the USA. Every region in bright red experienced the warmest year in 118 years of record-keeping.

Region Chops Sandy Debris Down To Size. Here's an eye-opening clip from an article at The Wall Street Journal: "The immense task of leveling the mountains of debris left behind by Sandy is coming into focus two months after the historic superstorm ravaged the East Coast. In the end, the federal government estimates that 16 million cubic yards of debris piled up around New York and New Jersey—enough to fill the Empire State Building 16 times over—though more than half has yet to arrive at landfills..."

Photo credit above: "A aerial view of the damage in Mantoloking, N.J., caused by Hurricane Sandy, Oct. 31, 2012. President Barack Obama toured New Jersey's ravaged coastline with New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie in a display of big-government muscle and bipartisan harmony." (Doug Mills/The New York Times)

Climate Stories...

Facebook And The Rest Of Silicon Valley Could Be Wiped Out In 40 Years. Hype, or a real concern with rising sea levels? Here's an excerpt from a story at Business Insider: "While much of California's coastline is at risk of rising sea levels, things look particularly bad for the Bay Area. Silicon Valley is already 3-10 feet below sea level, and scientists say that seawater will rise 16 inches by 2050. By 2100, that number is supposed to jump to 65 inches, and the entire area will experience more frequent, hard-hitting storms. If the levees in place are destroyed or overwhelmed by a storm surge, one hard blow could put the 3 million people who live in Silicon Valley in a grisly Waterworld. "It's imminent," Mruz says. "There's no question in my mind; we're going to have to do something, at every spot around the Bay." Also at risk: Google, Yahoo, LinkedIn, Intel, Cisco, and Oracle. "Silicon Valley basically backs right up to the bay," Mruz told CW. "You have all of them, Yahoo, Google, all right there. Without some type of flood protection potentially in front of that, you could flood that whole area. You're talking billions of dollars..."

 

Scientists Link Global Warming To England's Rainiest Year On Record. This article at euractiv.com caught my eye; here's an excerpt: "Senior climate scientists are linking global warming to the UK Met Office's announcement yesterday (3 January) that 2012 was England’s rainiest year since records began. The weather service's numbers showed that due to slightly more seasonal figures in Wales and Scotland, the UK as a whole experienced its second wettest summer recorded. But four of the UK’s Top Five wettest years have now occurred since 2000, a statistic in line with the expectations of climatologists who model the effects of a warming world. “It is not just Britain but many other parts of northern Europe and north America that are getting wetter and there is a climate change component to it,” Kevin Trenberth told EurActiv over a phone line from the US National Center for Atmospheric Research in Boulder, Colorado..."

Climate Change: What's Faith Got To Do With It? Here is an excerpt of an article that resonated with me, from California's Whittier Daily News: "Throughout all of California and the rest of the country, the faith community has been working for many years to preach the gospel of good stewardship of our shared environment. Amid theological differences, we have fostered a shared sense of purpose and urgency that unites us in solidarity with our local and global communities, especially those most vulnerable to climate change. The action that results from this shared sense of purpose goes far beyond a congregation's four walls. People of faith bring shared principles - such as working for the common good, caring for our neighbors, and working for economic justice - into the public policy arena..."

 

Global Warming And Drought In The Midwest: Expect More Of The Same? Here's a snippet of a story at chicagomag.com: "The Midwest drought of 2012 has been one of the most expensive natural disasters of recent decades, with Mississippi River barge traffic on the verge of shutting down, and the Army Corps of Engineers blowing up underwater limestone to keep traffic moving:

‘If we were in the same conditions now, 30 years ago, we`d be running into problems much, much, sooner,’ Col. Hall said. The rock removal does stop traffic for 16 hours every day.  But the Coast Guard, the river`s `traffic cop`, unclogs the jam overnight. ‘During the time that the Army Corps contractors are removing rock, which is roughly 6:00am – 10:00pm at night, we gather up all the vessels that are waiting north and south,’ Capt. Teschenford said. ‘They actually do a quick survey of the area where rocks were removed and we open it up. ‘

January 4: Hints of a January Thaw (coldest air of winter 2 weeks away?)

Rock Bottom

"As the days lengthen, the cold doth strengthen."

Yes it doth. Byron Gilman asks "what is the coldest day of the year, on average?" Great question. Looking at the last 30 years the mean temperature at MSP bottoms out at 15 F. between January 8 and January 22. So you could make a case that the coldest days are January 15-16.

Of course it varies from year to year, but you may be happy to hear that temperatures rise 2 F. by the end of January. Hints of what's to come.

No blistering, hair-curling, paint-peeling cold is brewing, but models bring another surge of Canadian Delight south of the border the 3rd week of January; a few subzero nights around January 16-20. Coincidence? I suspect this may be the coldest outbreak of winter.

But first we thaw out a bit: 2 to 4 days at, or just above, freezing next week. It may be warm enough for a rain/snow mix next Thursday. Rain.. in mid-January. Strange. Then again, nothing much surprises me anymore.

This may come as a shock, but I don't see any significant snow looking out 2 weeks. 98 percent of Minnesota is now in moderate drought or worse. We need moisture.

Today's blog has my video clip recap of the top weather & climate stories of 2012. Based on my number crunching there's no doubt in my mind 2012 will be the warmest year ever recorded across the USA.

 

362 all-time record highs across the USA in 2012.

0 all-time record lows in 2012. Source: Capital Weather Gang and Weather Underground. Details below.

Vikes-Cast. Heading to Green Bay for Saturday's game? The weather will be pretty tolerable, at least by Green Bay standards: expect game-time temperatures in the low 20s under a partly cloudy sky, a wind chill dipping into the low teens. Could be worse. A detailed forecast for Green Bay from Ham Weather is here.

Coldest Day of Winter? I seem to get this question every year. It's probably human nature to want to know when we reach rock bottom, and when we can look forward to temperatures trending upward again. The chart above show average and mean temperatures for the month of January. The mean temperature bottoms out at 15 F. from January 8 to 22. The midpoint of the mean is January 15-16, so you could make a case that, statistically, these are the coldest days of winter, on average. Of course you can prove anything with statistics. But this tracks with conventional wisdom that, most winters, the coldest spell of weather arrives the second or third week of January, coming about 3-4 weeks after the Winter Solstice. And cheer up, the mean temperature rises 2 whole degrees between January 22 and 31! Calendar info courtesy of the Minnesota Climatology Working Group.

Risk Of A Fleeting January Thaw. The mercury may nudge 30 (above!) today, then cool down into the low and mid 20s over the weekend, close to normal for early January. Pacific air arrives next week, highs near freezing from Monday into Friday. Precipitation next Thursday and Friday may fall as a mix of rain and wet snow. A slushy accumulation can't be ruled out, but this looks like more of a Marchlike slush-event, possibly starting out as a little glaze ice (freezing rain). ECMWF high temperature forecasts above are in Celsius.

What A Difference A Year Makes. Here's one reason why I don't expect this winter to be nearly as mild as last winter. According to NOAA data snow is currently covering 65% of the lower 48 states of the USA; that compares with 21% of the USA on January 3, 2012. Snow on the ground keeps air temperatures 10-20 F. colder than they would be otherwise (with bare ground), and this acts as a break on temperatures to some degree. Granted, there isn't that much snow on the ground across the Upper Midwest, in fact I expect snowcover amounts to drop by roughly 50% during next week's thaw.

Late Next Week: Slop Storm? It's way too early to launch into specifics, but a southern storm will push a shield of precipitation into the Upper Midwest Thursday and Friday. To get (all) snow temperatures in the lowest mile of the atmosphere will have to be below 32 F. Right now that looks unlikely - models hinting at enough warm air aloft for rain, or a rain-snow mix. Midday Thursday (January 10) guidance from ECMWF courtesy of WSI.

A Real Cold Front? GFS model data continues to hint at what may be the coldest air of the winter season shaping up for the third week of January, maybe 3-4 days with highs near zero and lows dipping well below zero. Anytime 850 mb temperatures fall to -25 F we're in for a bitter spell. I think we'll quickly recover by the last week of January, but don't write off a battery-draining arctic frontal passage just yet.

2012 USA Climate Recap. I prepared a 2:30 overview for WeatherNation TV, our new, national weather channel. I could have spent 30 minutes recapping the extreme, bizarre year of 2012. This YouTube clip touches on some of the highlights, including record warmth, no real winter, flowers blooming in March (in Minnesota!), a 1 in 500 year flood for Duluth, the most severe derecho on record, extreme drought and record Arctic ice loss.

2012's Surreal Record Warmth In The USA. Meteorologist Jason Samenow has a great recap of last year, what will almost certainly be the warmest year in recorded U.S. history, at the Washington Post's Capital Weather Gang; here's an excerpt: "We await the inevitable “official” announcement from NOAA that 2012 was the warmest year on record in the Lower 48, by a huge margin. Recall, in mid-December Climate Central calculated there was 99.99999999 percent chance this feat would be achieved. In the mean time, it’s amazing to watch related records stream in at national, regional and local scales. Perhaps the most jaw-dropping record I’ve encountered was posted by wunderground historian Christopher Burton: there were 362 all-time record highs logged in the U.S. in 2012 but ZERO all-time record lows. That is an incredible disparity which - to me- seems like it would be impossible to accomplish without a marked human influence on climate BOTH from urbanization around weather stations and elevated greenhouse gas concentrations..."

Graphic credit above: "2012 temperatures in the U.S. compared to normal. The only large region where temperatures were slightly cooler than normal was the Pacific Northwest. (High Plains Regional Climate Center)."

2012: A Year Of Weather Extremes. Here's an excerpt of an excellent recap of last year's jaw-dropping weather from ouramazingplanet.com: "From unprecedented drought to killer cold, 2012 was a year of weather extremes. In 2012, the United States suffered 11 weather-related events that cost $1 billion apiece, according to a preliminary list released Thursday (Dec. 20) by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). Economic losses for Hurricane Sandy and the yearlong drought are still being calculated, but NOAA estimates 2012 will surpass 2011 in terms of aggregate costs for disasters (exceeding $60 billion). Severe weather disasters hit beyond the United States, too, as super typhoons slammed into Asia and a cold snap froze Europe's rivers. Globally, countries battled heat waves and droughts..." (image above: NASA GOES Project).

Sandy Tops List Of 2012 Extreme Weather And Climate Events. The meteorologists and climate scientists at Climate Central have a terrific overview of a wild 2012; here's an excerpt: "...The statistics are staggering: The first half of the year was so warm that by early August, the U.S. had already exceeded the number of record-high temperatures set or tied during all of 2011. July 2012 was the hottest month on record in the U.S., as a desiccating drought enveloped the majority of the lower 48 states, stretching its misery from California to Delaware. The drought has been the most extensive this country has seen since the 1930s. Ranchers were forced to sell off their herds as their fields turned to dust and the price of feed rose steeply; the Mississippi River neared a record-low level, threatening to curtail commerce; and drought-fueled wildfires consumed tens of thousands of acres across the West and threatened a large population center in Colorado Springs...."

2012 Severe Storm And Tornado Warnings. Here is an interesting YouTube animation, showing all severe storm warnings (blue) and tornado warnings (red) last year. Notice the concentration of tornadoes east of what is traditional "Tornado Alley", due to drought conditions and excessive heat much of the summer. There were far more tornadoes from Kentucky southward to Alabama - a trend we've seen in recent years. Animation courtesy of Greg Carbin at NOAA SPC.

Barge Traffic Stalls Along Drought-Parched Mississippi River. We may be a few days away from the closing of the Mississippi River to barge traffic due to lingering drought and record-low water levels on the (once) Mighty Mississippi. By some calculations over 8 feet of snow would be required to alleviate drought conditions over the Central Plains, water which would eventually help to raise water levels. Here's an excerpt of a Chicago Tribune story, via The Los Angeles Times: "CAPE GIRARDEAU, Mo. — Tim Cox was supposed to be steering an 800-foot string of barges through the twists and turns of the Mississippi River last week, moving tons of grain and coal toward the Gulf of Mexico. Instead, his towboat and about half a dozen others spent nearly 15 hours stationary in the drought-parched river, about 115 miles south of St. Louis. The boats had to stop while crews dredged downstream in a desperate attempt to keep the shipping channel open as the river approaches historically low levels. Cox, second in command on the towboat LJ Sullivan, sat in the captain's chair high above his barges, looking out the wheelhouse windows in disbelief at sandbars and stone dikes that are usually deep underwater..."

Photo credit above: "Water levels are low along the entire Mississippi River, but the Army Corps of Engineers says the worst stretch is from St. Louis to Cairo, Ill., where the Ohio River flows in. Above, barge traffic on the Ohio River at Cairo." (E. Jason Wambsgans / Chicago Tribune / December 20, 2012)

Ski Mexico! For months I've been telling you how storms are (once again) detouring well south of Minnesota. Who is seeing snow? According to the NAM model (courtesy of Weathercaster) as much as 6-10" snow is expected west of El Paso, Texas. Good grief.

Nagging Drought. It's being called the worst U.S. drought since 1956; exceptional drought conditions being reported from South Dakota and Nebraksa southward to Texas. The latest U.S. Drought Monitor is here.

"Extreme Rain": UK Warned Over Flood Risk. Whilte much of the USA suffers through debilitating drought - 2012 was the wettest year ever recorded for the United Kingdom. Sky News has a video report on the parade of storms; here's an excerpt of their story: "The UK is suffering more "extreme rainfall", which could have a serious impact on flooding problems, the Met Office has warned. The torrential downpours that have hit the UK this year are of a similar magnitude to those being experienced by China and India, according to the scientists. They have called for more research to be done to help protect the country from flooding in the future as these "extreme" weather events threaten to become more frequent. The disclosure has sparked warnings from environmentalists that it is further evidence of climate change in action..."

"Chilly" In Phoenix. The forecast calls for Phoenix calls for lows in the upper 30s, highs in the upper 50s to mid 60s. I could deal with that. Thanks to Joel Rivera and WeatherNation TV for sharing this photo.

Parhelia. Donna Wick Paul snapped this photo in Piqua, Ohio yesterday, capturing a "sun dog" or mock sun, triggered by sunlight being refracted (bent) by hexagonal ice crystals.

A Good Excuse To Check Out Kickstarter. Crowdsourcing is becoming an increasingly popular way of raising money for projects, products and new services that resonate with people. O.K. I'm a little biased, but I'm a fan of up and coming Twin Cities rock/blues/funk band "The Lost Wheels", and they're trying to raise a little money to create a new CD for their growing legion of fans around the state. Even if you don't want to be a part of this groundswell, check out their Kickstarter video - it'll give you a much-needed chuckle or two.

I Did Not Know That. Thanks to Youtubehigh.com for clearing this up for us. Suddenly it all makes sense...

Climate Stories...

Another Record-Breaking Year For Climate Change. The Wichita Eagle has another look back at 2012, a year that won't soon be forgotten for a string of climate calamities; here's an excerpt: "It’s virtually certain that 2012 was the warmest year on record for the continental United States. When scientists affirm these results, they’ll no doubt make headlines. But we should put that record in perspective. North America covers just 2 percent of the Earth’s surface. Globally, we’re set to have another very hot year, likely in the top 10, according to the World Meteorological Organization. Looking further back, the past 35 years have all exceeded the 20th-century average global temperature. That’s a generational shift. Half the U.S. population is 35 or younger, so half of all Americans have never lived through an “average” year..." (wall cloud photo above courtesy of Brittney Misialek, from NOAA SPC).

In Farewell Speech, House Republican Lists Climate Change As A Top Priority. Here's an excerpt from Think Progress: "During his farewell speech Tuesday, outgoing House Rules Committee Chairman David Dreier (R-CA) listed climate change as a top problem facing the country — a rare moment when a Republican leader in office openly acknowledged the need for climate action. Taking to the House floor, Dreier said climate change “is a fact of life” that must be confronted, and said it should be an imperative on par with the economy and gun control for his party..."