June 5: Too Dry For Much of America (severe storm camping tips)

8" rain reported in parts of central and southern Maine over the weekend, over 7" reported at Portland, Maine.
98 F. high at Salt Lake City, Utah Monday, breaking the old record of 96 F in 1988. Source: NOAA.

Palmer Index. Here is a running tally of moisture conditions across the USA. The Red River Valley is still running a 4"+ rainfall deficit, but parts of central and east central Minnesota are showing a 2-3" rainfall surplus, for the first time all year. Palmer Index courtesy of NOAA.


84 Hour Rainfall Prediction. After a dry day today (make the most of it) an approaching warm frontal boundary will leave the atmosphere irritable, capable of a few T-showers Wednesday, with a possibility of stronger T-storms Thursday and Friday. The heaviest (.5 to 1.5") rainfall amounts are forecast to fall north/east of the Twin Cities.

The United (Stormy) States of America. This interactive Ham Aeris map shows the last week's worth of severe storm reports from coast to coast, over 3,000 at last count.

Montana "Hailers". National Weather Service employees captured these photos of 1-2" hail, which covered the ground near Potomac, Montana on Monday. Photos via Facebook.

That's One Way To Collect Hail. Thanks to max099tube for showing us the proper way to collect penny-size hail in Lehigh Valley, Pennsylvania on Sunday. A funny YouTube clip is here: "Zaxk having fun in the rain and hail."

A Threatening Sky. Thanks to the Yosemite Conservancy for sharing this photo taken yesterday.

Tuesday Severe Risk. A few storms may exceed severe criteria (1" diameter hail and winds over 58 mph) in northern Montana, southern Georgia and the Florida Panhandle, according to NOAA SPC.

Outlook: Smoky Sunsets? NOAA's "Fire Detect" URL shows the location of every active wildfire in the USA, as well as resulting smoke plumes. As hot air pushes north late in the week I wouldn't be surprised to see a few extra-red, smoky sunsets across Minnesota and much of the Upper Midwest.

Warming Trend. The extended 8-14 day outlook from CPC (NOAA's Climate Prediction Center) shows a significant warming from the Upper Midwest into New England through mid-June.

Missouri River Flooding: Sand Poses Major Problem For Farmers (Photos). Here's a snippet from The Huffington Post: "MISSOURI VALLEY, Iowa (AP) — Mason Hansen guns his pickup and cranks the steering wheel to spin through sand up to 4 feet high, but this is no day at the beach. Hanson once grew corn and soybeans in the sandy wasteland in western Iowa, and his frustration is clear. Despite months spent hauling away tons of sand dropped when the flooded Missouri River engulfed his farm last summer, parts of the property still look like a desert. Hundreds of farmers are still struggling to remove sand and fill holes gouged by the Missouri River, which swelled with rain and snowmelt, overflowed its banks and damaged thousands of acres along its 2,341-mile route from Montana through North Dakota, South Dakota, Nebraska, Kansas, Iowa and Missouri. The worst damage and the largest sand deposits were in Iowa and Nebraska."

Hurricane Forecast For 2012: Cloudy With Chance Of Landfall. I have this nagging gut feel (nausea?) that it's going to be an above-average summer and autumn for hurricanes impacting the USA. I hope I'm wrong. Here's an excerpt of a story at Property Casualty 360: "The Atlantic Hurricane Season starts this week, and forecasters are calling for a normal number of storms—but some warn that the odds are in favor of a U.S. landfall. Catastrophe-modeler RMS released its pre-season commentary, saying conditions remain right for the total number of tropical storms “to be near the long-term average of 10.7 tropical storms.” RMS notes that while some existing conditions could drive higher Atlantic basin-activity, other factors, such as higher wind shear over the Atlantic, have increased “the likelihood of a near-normal season in 2012.”



Officials: New Orleans Ready For Hurricanes. I hope those officials are right; here's an excerpt from Insurance Journal: "The Army Corps of Engineers — responsible for the massive rebuilding of hurricane protection after the devastation of Hurricane Katrina in 2005 — and leaders from around the metropolitan area say they’re working closely on emergency planning as the new hurricane season officially gets under way June 1. With billions of dollars invested in new levees, floodwalls and other flood protection, and an overhaul of cooperative emergency planning that emerged from the Katrina disaster, officials say citizens should have greater confidence that if tropical weather sweeps out of the Gulf of Mexico this year the systems and infrastructure in place are up to the test."
Photo credit: AP Photo/Gerald Herbert.

Storm Of Money: Hurricanes, Insurance And The Secret Black Boxes That Make Our Rates So High. Wonder why your insurance rates are so high? Charleston's Post and Courier has a must-read article; here's an excerpt: "Some things are certain: As the earth spins, air moves swiftly around the equator, creating the trade winds. It’s also certain that storms will form because the sun shines bright where these trades blow, turning sea water into sky-high clouds of steam that inevitably collapse, a process announced by torrents of rain and thunder. And we know for sure from history and physics that a few of these air masses will spin counterclockwise, slowly at first, then faster and with enough momentum to flatten cities, alter destinies, and if hooked into some fantastic electric grid, pack enough energy to light every bulb on earth." Photo credit: Post and Courier.

"Ask Paul". Weather-related Q&A.

Paul,

"The last three years have been brutal for insurance companies writing business in Minnesota due to the severe weather. Do you think our current weather patterns are here to stay, ie, get used to it?"
Thank you,

Kevin Burkholder
Vice President - Personal Lines
RAM Mutual Insurance Company

Kevin - great question. The trends are pretty convincing in the severe weather department. Dr. Jeff Masters at Weather Underground believes the last 2 years have been the most severe for the USA since 1816. We're seeing more extreme weather events, more hail and more downpours, in fact, the number of severe, 3"+ downpours across the Upper Midwest has doubled in the last 50 years. There's no strong link (yet) between climate change and tornadoes, but there's little doubt that excessive rainfall events are on the rise, probably hail too, and this pattern will almost certainly accelerate as we pump more greenhouse gases into the atmossphere in the years ahead.


________________________________________________________________________________

Hello Paul,

"I just wanted to hear your opinion and ask you a question. I don't know if it's "Ironic", but you mention in your blogs that warmer atmosphere holds more water. Since this was the warmest spring, doesn't it still link to this 2nd wettest spring since it was warmer?"

Thanks,

Israel

Israel - there's little doubt in my mind that warmer = wetter (and more severe). A warmer atmosphere can hold more water vapor, loading the dice in favor of more (extreme) rainfall events, and that's what we're seeing in the data. Spring of 2012 was the warmest, and second wettest on record. 2010 was Minnesota's wettest year - and brought the most tornadoes the state has ever witnessed (145). I've been accused of being an "alarmist", but if you step back and really look at the trends, they are a bit alarming.

In A Skirmish To Control The Screens. Here's an excerpt of an interesting article from The New York Times: "Given the relentless battles by tech companies to win new smartphone users, you would think that the tiny screen is the only one that matters. Those battles are part of a larger war for three screens: smartphones, tablets and televisions. The most important facet of these devices won’t be the sharpness of the display or the sleekness of the design — they will, after all, essentially be the same: flat pieces of glass of varying sizes. What we will want most from these screens is their ability to communicate with one another like a group of gabbing teenagers in the middle of school recess."

Camping Storm Safety

Here's a rare nugget of good news on the climate front: the International Energy Agency (IEA) reports that the USA cut greenhouse gas CO2 emissions by 430 million tons (7.7%) since 2006. The bad news: global CO2 levels reached a new high in 2011 (31.6 gigatons). Details on the blog.

So what?

A warmer atmosphere holds more water, loading the dice in favor of more severe storms and flash floods.

What do you do if a severe thunderstorm approaches your campsite? Situational awareness is crucial. With portable NOAA Weather Radios and apps on smart phones there's no reason why you have to be surprised by storms. True, you may not get a great cell signal up in the BWCA.

Your vehicle offers more protection than a soggy sleeping bag. Are there restrooms nearby? Better than nothing. The danger is lightning and falling trees - so try to find an outcropping of rocks to ride out the storm.

A dry, quiet Tuesday gives way to a slight thunder risk Wednesday; a better chance of storms Friday as hot, humidifed air pushes north.

You'll want to evacuate to your favorite lake - highs reach the 90s Saturday and Sunday with dew points in the 70s.

A 100 F. heat index? We'll come close.

Climate Stories....


Climate Scientists Lament A Nation Stuck On The Wrong Debate. Here's an excerpt from a story at insideclimatenews.org: "The global warming debate in Congress, the states and on the campaign trail centers on two issues: Is Earth warming, and if so are humans to blame? But ask most climate scientists, and they'll tell you that these are the only questions not in dispute. Climate change is a matter of how bad and by when, they'll say—not whether. "Scientists are inherently skeptical," says Lonnie Thompson, a paleoclimatologist at Ohio State University, who has led studies of glaciers and ice sheets in 16 countries. "After enough evidence and observation, though, you have to start to accept findings. That is what happened with climate change. This wasn't a rash conclusion."

Photo credit above: "NASA scientists study changing conditions in the Arctic as part of the agency's ICESCAPE mission, or Impacts of Climate on Ecosystems and Chemistry of the Arctic Pacific Environment/Credit: NASA, Kathryn Hansen.

Climate Change Stunner: USA Leads World In CO2 Cuts Since 2006. Here's a bit of good news - not sure how much of this CO2 reduction was a symptom of the recession/depression we just muddled through, but the Vancouver Sun has a ray of good news; here's an excerpt: "The world has yet to figure out how to stop the relentless increase in climate pollution. But mixed in with all the bad news there was one shining ray of hope. One of the biggest obstacles to climate action may be shifting. As the IEA highlighted:

"US emissions have now fallen by 430 Mt (7.7%) since 2006, the largest reduction of all countries or regions. This development has arisen from lower oil use in the transport sector … and a substantial shift from coal to gas in the power sector."

How big is a cut of 430 million tonnes of CO2? It's equal to all CO2 from all Canadians outside Alberta. From a US perspective, it's equal to eliminating the combined emissions of ten western states: Alaska, Washington, Oregon, Idaho, Montana, North Dakota, South Dakota, Wyoming, Utah and Nevada."

Beyond Season's End: Sportsmen Concerned About Climate Change. Many farmers and fishing and hunting enthusiasts have told me stories about changes they're witnessing, literally out in the field, with their own eyes. It's a slow-motion transformation, but that northward shift in flora and fauna climate scientists were predicting 30 years ago? It's happening. Here's a post from Climate Denial Crock of the Week: "Rising summer temperatures pose a threat to coldwater brook trout in the Adirondacks, a recent study shows. Researchers recorded air and water temperatures over the course of 11 summers and correlated readings to spawning activity. A rise of 1.8 degree Fahrenheit delayed spawning by approximately one week and reduced the number of nests. Late spawning is likely to delay the emergence of fry, which could uncouple synchronicity with the emergence of prey. Water temperatures near 70 degrees Fahrenheit stress the fish, which do not have sufficient energy to feed. Consequently the growth of their reproductive organs slowed. High temperatures effectively caused the trout to shut down in the middle of the summer, the paper’s authors said."

The Planet Wreckers: Climate-Change Deniers Are On The Ropes - But So Is The Planet. Here's an Op-Ed from Bill McKibbon at Huffington Post: "It’s been a tough few weeks for the forces of climate-change denial. First came the giant billboard with Unabomber Ted Kacynzki’s face plastered across it: “I Still Believe in Global Warming. Do You?” Sponsored by the Heartland Institute, the nerve-center of climate-change denial, it was supposed to draw attention to the fact that “the most prominent advocates of global warming aren’t scientists. They are murderers, tyrants, and madmen.” Instead it drew attention to the fact that these guys had over-reached, and with predictable consequences. A hard-hitting campaign from a new group called Forecast the Facts persuaded many of the corporations backing Heartland to withdraw $825,000 in funding; an entire wing of the Institute, devoted to helping the insurance industry, calved off to form its own nonprofit. Normally friendly politicians like Wisconsin Republican Congressman Jim Sensenbrenner announced that they would boycott the group’s annual conference unless the billboard campaign was ended."

Global Warming And Hurricanes. Here's a snippet of a story at the Grand Cayman Observer: "Although there is a strong consensus among scientists that human-induced carbon dioxide emissions are causing a greenhouse effect and thus raising surface temperatures on Earth, other scientists staunchly oppose the idea.  One of those opposing scientists is William Gray, a meteorologist who pioneered seasonal hurricane forecasts while working at Colorado State University, where he remains professor emeritus of atmospheric science.  Among his theories based on his scientific observations, Gray doesn’t believe that carbon dioxide emissions are having any measurable effect on the formation of tropical cyclones. "

* image of Hurricane Ivan above courtesy of NASA.

How Climate Change Is Growing Forests In The Arctic. Here's an excerpt of a story in Time Magazine: "If there’s a single lesson for early 21st century life on the planet Earth, it’s this: everything connects. That’s true whether we’re looking at the global economic system, where sickness is now spreading from the Euro zone to China to a wobbly U.S., or the global environment, as we can see in a new study showing the Arctic rapidly responding to climate change by sprouting sudden trees in the tundra. Researchers in Britain and Finland studied an area of 38,600 sq. mi (100,000 sq. km) in what’s known as the northwestern Eurasian tundra, which stretches from western Siberia to Finland."

Photo credit above: B.C. Forbes. "Growing shrubs in the Arctic of western Siberia."

Nuclear, Coal Power Face Climate Change Risk - Study. Reuters has the story; here's an excerpt: "SINGAPORE, June 4 (Reuters) - Warmer water and reduced river flows will cause more power disruptions for nuclear and coal-fired power plants in the United States and Europe in future, scientists say, and lead to a rethink on how best to cool power stations in a hotter world. In a study published on Monday, a team of European and U.S. scientists focused on projections of rising temperatures and lower river levels in summer and how these impacts would affect power plants dependent on river water for cooling. The authors predict that coal and nuclear power generating capacity between 2031 and 2060 will decrease by between 4 and 16 percent in the United States and a 6 to 19 percent decline in Europe due to lack of cooling water."

June 4: Heating Up Again (severe storms from Boise to Atlanta)

Smashing The Old Spring Record. Spring 2012 was 7.4 F. warmer than average, according to the Minnesota Climatology Working Group. The two warmest springs in the Twin Cities have been observed since 2010.

"As Climate Central reported on May 23, the 2012 fire season is likely to continue the trend of severe wildfire seasons in the Southwest, due largely to the prevalence of long-term drought conditions in the region. Long-burning, massive wildfires have become more common in the U.S. recent years." - details on the record blaze burning in southwestern New Mexico from Climate Central below. Photo courtesy of NOAA.

Partly-Severe. SPC is predicting a few severe T-storms for Idaho and Montana, on the leading edge of unusually hot, steamy air. Another band of rough weather may break out from the suburbs of St. Louis to Memphis, Atlanta and Savannah.

Day 3-7 Weather Threats. Here are NOAA's major concerns this week, ranging from significant heat from Denver northward into Wyoming, highs winds for Salt Lake City and northern Arizona, heavy rains for Idaho and Montana, and lingering drought for many southern states.

Rainfall Potential. A very soggy week is brewing for the Pacific Northwest and much of the south, some 2-4" rains from Boise to Dallas to the Florida Panhandle and Charleston. Map: NOAA.

Wild Storms. Thanks to @rcoryjohnson, who snapped this shot in Fultondale, Alabama on Sunday.

Roll Cloud. Severe thunderstorms rumbled through St. Augustine, Florida yesterday. Photo courtesy of Karen Nelson.

Flooded Yards. Robert Denton snapped this photo in his backyard in Portland, Maine. Some 2-3" rainfall amounts soaked New England over the weekend from an unusually slow-moving storm.

180 Hour Forecast. Unusually cool, stormy weather grips the Pacific Northwest, while heat builds across the Rockies and Plains by late week. Strong/severe storms break out across the Deep South. No tropical storm development is expected this week. GFS outlook courtesy of NOAA.

Record-Setting Blaze In Isolated Area Of Southwestern New Mexico Grows To Nearly 340 Square Miles. It's already New Mexico's largest blaze on record, and it continues to grow in size and intensity. Here's an update from AP and The Washington Post: "RESERVE, N.M. — A wildfire burning in what New Mexico’s governor called “impossible” terrain in an isolated, mountainous area of the state continued its rapid growth Friday as forecasters called for thunderstorms and dry lightning that could spark even more fires. The massive blaze in the Gila National Forest in southwestern New Mexico is the biggest in state history and the largest currently burning in the country. It scorched an additional 39 square miles in the past day, growing to nearly 340 square miles, as more than 1,200 firefighters worked to halt its spread."

Photo credit above: "In this Saturday, June 2, 2012 photo provided by the U.S. Forest Service, a large cloud of smoke rises from a fire in the Gila National Forest in New Mexico. The Whitewater-Baldy Complex fire has scorched more than 377 square miles. (AP Photo/U.S. Forest Service, Kari Greer)."

New Mexico Wildfires Now A Record-Setting "Megafire". Here's some perspective from meteorologist Andrew Freedman at Climate Central: "...The megafire is the result of a merger of two separate, relatively modest-sized fires. When the two merged in late May, the fire dramatically expanded, burning 70,000 acres in just one day. As of Friday, the fire had burned 216,000 acres, and was only 10 percent contained. More than 1,200 personnel were battling the fire. There have been no fatalities or major injuries. The fire has surpassed New Mexico’s record fire, which occurred just last year. The Las Conchas fire burned more than 156,000 acres and came perilously close to Los Alamos National Laboratory, the birthplace of the atomic bomb."

Photo credit above: "Firefighters work burnout operations at the Gila National Forest." Credit: U.S. Forest Service.

Be Ready To Go; Hurricane Season Is Here Again. Without an El Nino pattern to increase winds over the tropics (which tends to weaken developing storms over the Atlantic and Caribbean), and with water temperatures running 1-3 F. warmer than average, I suspect an above-average year for hurricanes is brewing. Here's an excerpt of a good article from Longboat Key News: "...Being involved in evacuations with Sarasota County there were residents on Siesta Key that refused to leave their home when we strongly encouraged them to do so only later to find them calling the 9-1-1 Center asking for the fire department to get them out of their home.  The safety of emergency workers is also at the top of the list and we do not go out of our shelter when winds are sustained at 46 MPH.  Evacuate early!

Our population must take evacuation seriously.

If you haven’t thought about hurricane preparedness than here is what is suggested:

1. Make a plan as to where you will go.  Go to www.floridadisater.org
2. Contact Manatee or Sarasota County Emergency Management or Longboat Key Fire Rescue for a Hurricane Guide.
3. Develop a Disaster Supply Kit
4. Protect your home before the storm
5. Purchase a battery operated weather radio"

* Image above courtesy of NASA.

NASA To Fly Drone Aircraft Above 2012 Hurricanes. NOAA NHC forecasters do a remarkably good job predicting hurricane tracks. But forecasting hurricane intensity ("will Hurricane Bubba be a Category1 or a Category 3 storm when it reaches land?") is much tougher to pin down - models do a consistently poor job predicting intensity. It turns out technology originally developed for the military has potentially life-saving applications. Brevardtimes.com has the fascinating details; here's an excerpt: "Beginning this summer and over the next several years, NASA will be sending unmanned aircraft dubbed "severe storm sentinels" above stormy skies to help researchers and forecasters uncover information about hurricane formation and intensity changes. Several NASA centers are joining federal and university partners in the Hurricane and Severe Storm Sentinel (HS3) airborne mission targeted to investigate the processes that underlie hurricane formation and intensity changes in the Atlantic Ocean basin."

Hurricane Prep 2012: Answers From The Storm Experts. Here's an excerpt of an interesting post from al.com:

Has there ever been an attempt or experiment to reduce the strength of a hurricane?
"The U.S. government once supported research into methods of hurricane modification, known as Project Stormfury. For a couple decades the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and its predecessor tried to weaken hurricanes by dropping silver iodide -- a substance that serves as a effective ice nuclei -- into the rain bands of the storms. During the Stormfury years, scientists seeded clouds in Hurricanes Esther (1961), Beulah (1963), Debbie (1969), and Ginger (1971). The experiments took place over the open Atlantic far from land. The seeding targeted convective clouds just outside the hurricane eyewall in an attempt to form a new ring of clouds that, it was hoped, would compete with the natural circulation of the storm and weaken it."

* Hurricane Irene image courtesy of NASA.

Memories Sharp, Emotions Strong For Those Who Lived Through 1972 Flood. A look back at what may have been a 1-in-500 year flood from The Rapid City Journal; here's an excerpt: "Tears glistened in Don Barnett’s eyes as he stood on the city bike path near Rapid Creek and remembered the horrors of that night 40 years earlier. There, just downstream from the Omaha Street bridge, a woman who had been swept down in raging flood waters from somewhere upstream was clinging to a tree as a rope crew with the South Dakota National Guard tried to save her. They could not. “Oh, it was so bad down here. The water was so deep and fast, and it was so cold,” said Barnett, who was Rapid City’s 29-year-old mayor on June 9, 1972, the night the flood hit. “A young guardsman got to within 10 or 12 feet of that woman, and then she just couldn’t hold on. And she was gone. And he was devastated. That’s when I knew it was going to get bad.”

Photo credit above: "Don Barnett was mayor of Rapid City during the 1972 flood. Barnett is seen here along a bank of Rapid Creek where he recalls a scene from that historic night."  Photo: Kristina Barker.

Japan City Could Watch Animals For Tsunami Signs. Here's an excerpt of an interesting story from Yahoo News: "A Japanese city is considering introducing a tsunami warning system which involves looking out for abnormal behaviour in animals and monitoring water levels in wells for signs of an imminent disaster. The southwestern coastal city of Susaki is contemplating studying whether a rapid lowering of water in wells or chickens squawking loudly for no apparent reason are indicators of an impending earthquake and tsunami. "They may not foretell a future disaster in a perfectly accurate manner, but the most important is to analyse such data thoroughly," said deputy mayor Yoshihito Myojin, according to a regional broadcaster late last month."

Photo credit above: Yasuyoshi Chiba/AFP/File. "A general view shows tsunami damage in Onagawa, Miyagi prefecture in 2011. A Japanese city is considering introducing a tsunami warning system which involves looking out for abnormal behaviour in animals and monitoring water levels in wells for signs of an imminent disaster."

I Just Deleted All My Music. I don't know if this is something you worry about, but I live in a constant state of perpetual paranoia that all my data, family photos and important online documents will get wiped out by a virus, a power outage or solar flare, or just plain idiocy on my part. The "cloud" will save us? Not so sure. Anything made my man can be broken. I've taken to using not only Apple's Time Machine, but multiple hard drives to back up all my essential home photos and movies - the stuff I would REALLY miss if I experienced a massive computer failure. Do you back up your phones, tablets, laptops and desktop systems religiously? Not to be a nag, but that old wise proverb about "an ounce of prevention" really rings true with me. Here's a cautionary tale from NPR: "I just deleted over 25,000 songs from my iTunes library. I am going to trust in the cloud, where my library now lives. I'm a bit scared, but I backed everything up, took a deep breath and stepped into the future. Abandoning the way I've come to listen to music over the last decade feels like a big experiment, but in some ways, the decision was a long time coming. I've been close to maxing out the hard drive space on my laptop for a while, and in a single day this week, I reclaimed nearly 200 gigabytes."

Photo credit above: iStockphoto.com. "Bob Boilen had more than 25,000 songs stored on his laptop's hard drive. Now there are none."

A Warm, Silver Lining

Now comes word from the Minnesota Climatology Working Group that much of Minnesota just experienced the warmest spring on record. Accurate data goes back to 1873.

You don't have to like it, but our atmosphere is warming.

The western US is drying out with more wildfires. In our lifetime a city like Las Vegas or Phoenix will probably run out of water.

I'm still alarmed by the global trends, but climate change may be a net-positive for Minnesota. In a century where water is destined to become our most precious natural resource, we're in good shape. The trends point to shorter winters (only 1 in 4 will be "old fashioned" with average snow & cold), fewer subzero nights, longer growing seasons, more rain, and more severe storms. 

I'm still waiting for 3M to invent a hail-resistant film for my hybrid, btw....

Fortune 500 companies will have an easier time luring fearful executives to MSP. I predict we'll be a Top 10 major market by 2030. A northward migration is imminent. Wait for it. Talk about a long-range prediction, but based on the trends I'm seeing that's my extra-long-range outlook.

A dry, temperate week is on tap; nothing severe until next weekend, when a hot front sparks T-storms - 90s possible by Sunday.

Umbrellas optional for 5 days in a row? We've earned this weather-break!

Climate Stories...

Are We In The Midst Of A Sixth Mass Extinction? "Honey, please pass me the sports page. Paul's on a rant about extinction now - Monday's are tough enough." I realize this is tough to read, but this book review in The New York Times caught my eye on Sunday; here's an excerpt: "NEARLY 20,000 species of animals and plants around the globe are considered high risks for extinction in the wild. That’s according to the most authoritative compilation of living things at risk — the so-called Red List maintained by the International Union for Conservation of Nature. 


This should keep us awake at night. 

By generalizing from the few groups that we know fairly well — amphibians, birds and mammals — a study in the journal Nature last year concluded that if all species listed as threatened on the Red List were lost over the coming century, and that rate of extinction continued, we would be on track to lose three-quarters or more of all species within a few centuries."

Why We Ignore Low-Tech Fixes For The Climate. Here's a thought-provoking piece from Ezra Klein's Wonkblog at The Washington Post: "Whenever the conversation turns to greening the world’s energy supply, a lot of the ideas tend to emphasize new and futuristic sources of power. Build more wind turbines. Stack up more solar panels. Make sure fresh coal plants don’t get built. But Catherine Wolfram, an economist at UC Berkeley’s Haas School of Business, says that we too often ignore simpler solutions, such as wringing more efficiency out of our existing fossil-fuel and nuclear plants. Many of those power plants, after all, are likely to stick around for decades to come. And there are quite a few minor tweaks that can be made to these plants that can cut greenhouse-gas emissions dramatically — tweaks that can have as much impact as building hordes of new wind farms or solar panels."

Photo credit above: "A climate savior?" (Michael S. Williamson/The Washington Post)

Batterend By Erosion And Facing Global Warming, Some Places Are Moving Back From The Sea. Here's a clip of a story from AP and The Chicago Tribune: "LOS ANGELES (AP) — Years of ferocious storms have threatened to gnaw away the western tip of a popular beachfront park two hours drive north of Los Angeles. Instead of building a 500-foot-long wooden defense next to the pier to tame the tide, the latest thinking is to flee. Work is under way to gauge the toll of ripping up parking lots on the highly eroded west end of Goleta Beach County Park and moving a scenic bike path and buried utility lines inland away from lapping waves. Up and down the California coast, some communities are deciding it's not worth trying to wall off the encroaching ocean. Until recently, the thought of bowing to nature was almost unheard of."


Global Warming Turns Tundra To Forest - Study. Reuters has the details: "Plants and shrubs have colonised parts of the Arctic tundra in recent decades growing into small trees, a scientific study found, adding the change may lead to an increase in global warming pressures if replicated on a wider scale. Scientists from Finland and Oxford University investigated an area of 100,000 square km, roughly the size of Iceland, in the northwestern Eurasian tundra, stretching from western Siberia to Finland. Using data from satellite imaging, fieldwork and observations from local reindeer herders, they found that in 8-15 percent of the area willow and alder plants have grown to over 2 metres in the last 30-40 years."

G.(reen) O.P. Here's an excerpt of a New York Times Op-Ed from St. Louis Park native Thomas Friedman: "...This obsession with coal and oil strikes me as wrongheaded for three reasons. First, there is a more intelligent conservative energy strategy: a campaign to develop an energy mix that is “American, diverse and clean.” Put the G.O.P. behind whatever fuel sources or technologies the marketplace produces — be they natural gas, wind, wave, solar, nuclear, efficiency, biofuels or sequestered coal — provided they’re produced in America, give us diversity of supply and steadily move us to cleaner air."  

Politics Of Red, White And Green. Here's an excerpt of an Op-Ed from The Boston Herald: "It was interesting while it lasted. But it looks like the “green revolution” has entered the long slide into “What was all that about?” In January, the Spanish government removed absurdly lavish subsidies for its renewable energy industry, and the renewable energy industry all but imploded. You could say it was never a renewable energy industry at all. It was a government subsidy industry where in exchange for creating conscience-soothing but other-wise inefficient windmills and solar panels, the government gave the makers piles of cash consumers never would."