February 5: More March (colder, stormier, snowier by 3rd week of February?)

2,890 daily high temperature records were broken or tied in January across the USA. That's 4 times the number of record highs reached or surpassed last year. Source: NOAA.


Happy National Weatherperson's Day! What...you didn't know? Neither did I. Tantalizing details below.

“A true conservationist is a man who knows that the world is not given by his fathers, but borrowed from his children.”   -  John James Audubon, Wildlife Artist/Author


"Hoar Frost" and "Advection Frost" reported across much of Minnesota. Details below.

Superbowl Forecast for Indianapolis: mostly sunny, high of 45 F.

Andy Gabrielson: 1987-2012. I'm so sorry to have to pass along news of the death of Andy Gabrielson, one of America's most prolific and passionate storm chasers. He was involved in a fatal traffic accident (drunk driver traveling the wrong way on I-44 in Oklahoma), resulting in this tragedy. Andy had a knack for being in the right place at the right time - during a typical severe season he would capture scores of tornadoes. He even won a Regional Emmy in 2011. But Andy did more than just capture amazing videos - he tended to tornado survivors; often he was the first person on the scene. He cared about weather, but more important, Andy cared about people.  He had a huge heart, he was a terrific human being, and he will be missed by everyone that knew him and appreciated his many talents. More from Kory Hartman from Severe Studios: "Some very sad news to report tonight: my good friend and storm chaser Andy Gabrielson was killed on I-44 in Oklahoma (Saturday) afternoon....My thoughts and prayers are with the Gabrielson family and our extended storm chaser family as well. God bless and Godspeed Andy."

An Unusual (but fitting) Tribute. Late Saturday a group of Kansas storm chasers positioned themselves to spell out Andy Gabrrielson's initials on a state map; a fitting tribute to a man who spent much of his life on the road, in search of nature's most violent wind.

Hints of a Real Storm? It's early, and the long-range models have been especially erratic and unreliable in recent weeks, especially the GFS model. The 500mb map above is valid February 20. If this verifies (a huge if) it could translate into the first plowable snowfall for Minnesota and Wisconsin since early December. My confidence level is low; I want to see a few more runs before I get too excited. The last thing I want to do is get (tormented) snow lover's hopes up - but at least there's a shot in about 2 weeks. We'll see. More details below.

15.9" snow at Denver over 3 days, a new record. Photo courtesy of Laura Walter in Hampden Heights, Colorado.
50.5" snow reported at Pinecliffe, Colorado. That's without the drifts.
22.7" fell at Boulder, Colorado.


16% savings in heating bills, nationwide, so far this winter. Source: Weather Derivatives, WSJ.

.5" snow has fallen at Kansas City so far this winter. Last winter Kansas City had already picked up 30" snow.

Record Snows Hit Denver. Officially it was 15.9" over 3 days, a new 3-day record for the Mile High City. Thanks to Daisy Bailey, who lives in Lakewood, Colorado.


Minnesota Snow Lovers Are In Mourning. Yes, I have my black armband on too. I can rationalize the lack of subzero weather - I don't miss that one bit. But no snow, on the 5th day of February? That's just...unnatural. It's starting to look like Tulsa (with lakes) out there. Not good. Details on the photo above: "A man digs his car out of the snow on Friday, Feb. 3, 2012, after a snow storm hit Denver with 10 inches of snow overnight.  A powerful winter storm swept across Colorado on Friday as it headed east, bringing blizzard warnings to eastern Colorado and western Kansas, and winter storm warnings for southeast Wyoming and western Nebraska.(AP Photo/Ed Andrieski)."

Denver Records: more details on what will undoubtedly be the biggest snowstorm of the winter for the Denver area, courtesy of the Denver office of the National Weather Service: "12.5 inches of snow fell at Denver International Airport on February 3rd. This snowfall established a daily snowfall record for the date. The old record was 7.5 inches set back in 1932. The 12.5 inches that fell also established a daily snowfall record for the month of February. The previous daily snowfall record was 9.5 inches on February 22nd 1909 and February 19th 1953. In addition, from the evening of the 2nd through the morning of the 4th, 15.9 inches of snow fell at Denver International Airport. This establishes a new three day snowfall total for the month of February. The old record of 14.2 inches occurred back in 1912 from February 23rd through the 25th." Experimental graphic above courtesy of NOAA.


Des Moines Snow. Yes, it was that close. Anywhere from 4-6" snow accumulated in Des Moines, Iowa, enough to shovel, plow and generally gum up area highways. Photo courtesy of Heather Burnside.


1,522 Records In The Past Week. All those red dots are record highs, yellow dots are record warm nighttime lows, green dots record 24 hour rainfall amounts. Click here to see an interactive map, courtesy of Ham Weather and NOAA. Check out the new Aeris platform from Ham Weather - nothing like it out there. Then again I'm a little biased.





February 4 or April 4? The latest high-res snowcover map for Minnesota (courtesy of NOAA) shows a total lack of snow south/west of the Minnesota River, a trace to 1/2" snow on the ground around the metro area, about 2-3" for Brainerd and Duluth, with a whopping 12-24" from the Boundary Waters to Grand Marais. I can't remember the last time there was so little snow on the ground in early February. 2006 was bleak for snow lovers, so was 2000, but this winter is breaking new ground...brown ground at that.

Latest USA Snowcover. According to NOAA, 25.5% of the USA (lower 48 states) was covered by snow, as of Saturday. That's up 4% since January 4.

One Year Ago. According to NOAA's NOHRSC (National Operational Hydrological Remote Sensing Center) 56.9% of the USA was snowcovered on February 4, 2011.

The Joys of "Hoar Frost". Yesterday was a ghostly, beautiful sight to behold. Thick fog coating every surface with a thin coating of frost, what meteorologists (tentatively) refer to as "hoar frost". Here's the definition from Wikipedia: "white frost or rime is the tiny solid deposition of water vapor from saturated air which occurs when the temperature of the surfaces is below freezing point. It occurs generally with clear skies." The name hoar comes from Old English and can be used as an adjective for showing signs of old age in reference to the frost which makes trees and bushes look like elderly white hair. It may also have association with hawthorn when covered in its characteristic white spring blossom."

* Note the spindly build-up of ice crystals on my mailbox - an odd sight, but beautiful nonetheless. I think this was an example of "advection frost, which "refers to tiny ice spikes forming when there is a very cold wind blowing over branches of trees, poles and other surfaces. It looks like rimming the edge of flowers and leaves and usually it forms against the direction of the wind. It can occur at any hour of day and night."

Prime Time For Tornadoes. Tornadoes are quite common along the Gulf Coast during February. This small EF-1 tornado touched down 3 miles south of DeRidder, Louisiana on Saturday. More details from the Lake Charles, Louisiana NWS office.


Houston Flooding. The epic Texas drought is finally showing signs of easing. Dallas is no longer in drought, and heavy rain triggered significant flash flooding in the Houston area in recent days.

Superbowl Weather Since 1967. What, you can't read this? Neither can I. Click here to see a pdf of Superbowl weather through the ages, courtesy of NOAA's Southeast Regional Climate Center.

Shift In The Pattern? We've been down this road before. A strongly positive AO (Arctic Oscillation) for much of the winter (correlating with incredibly strong and persistent westerly wind pumping Pacific air across North America), but all the models show a possible negative swing, bottoming out around Feb. 21 (when a full-latitude trough may spin up the first real storm in well over 2 months). It all adds up; we're long overdue for the jet to buckle, pulling Gulf moisture northward into Minnesota - but we've had a few false alarms in recent weeks. I need to see a few more computer runs to see if there's any continuity to this solution, or if it's another bogus computer glitch. Graphic courtesy of policlimate.com.

Maps Look Like Mid March. Check out this map from policlimate.com, showing the coolest temperatures expected over the next 8 days. I do expect a change the latter half of next week, but the next few days will feel more like early March than early February.


Rare Snows In North Africa. AccuWeather.com reports on the first significant snowfall for Algeria (Africa!) in 7 years: "A rare accumulating snowfall is in progress in Algiers, the capital city of Algeria. Cold air associated with a storm system currently moving into the region from the north is providing for some decent accumulations of snow in the north African country. According to Accuweather Meteorologist Eric Wanenchak, most reports say the last time Algiers saw this kind of accumulation was at least seven years ago in 2005. He said Algiers must fight a combination of limiting factors in order to see snowfall. First, the city is near the Mediterranean Sea, which is still quite warm, currently in the low 50s."

The Facts Behind The National Flood Insurance Program. Here's an excerpt of FEMA's recent press release: "Federal Emergency Management Agency officials are clearing up some misconceptions about the National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP), which offers federally-backed flood insurance to property owners and renters in communities that participate in the program. “The NFIP is a critical component to help homeowners and businesses recover from flood damage,” said FEMA Federal Coordinating Officer Stephen M. De Blasio, Sr. “The more that people know about it and utilize it, the easier it will be for them to rebuild their homes and communities.” More than 20,000 communities participate in the NFIP nationwide, which is administered by FEMA but whose policies are sold through private insurance agents and companies throughout the country. More than 25 percent of claims paid are from areas at medium or low risk of flooding. In these areas, NFIP flood insurance can be purchased for as little as $129 a year to insure a building and its contents, or $49 for contents only. Homes can be insured against flood damage for up to $250,000 and commercial buildings insured for up to $500,000."


Today Is National Weatherperson's Day. Proving everyone and everything has at least one day dedicated to making them feel special. Right. Details from the central Illinois office of the National Weather Service: "Today, Feb. 5, is National Weatherperson's Day, commemorating the birth of John Jeffries in 1774. Jeffries, one of America's first weather observers, began taking daily weather observations in Boston in 1774 and he took the first balloon observations in 1784. This is a day to recognize the men and women who collectively provide Americans with the best weather, water and climate forecasts and warning services of any nation. Weather observations in central Illinois date back to the early 1800s. Visit our weather history page for more details."



Why Viewers Could Soon Control Superbowl Ads. MIT's Technology Review has the story: "During this Sunday's Super Bowl, a record five million viewers are expected to tweet or make other social media comments—not just about the game, but also about the many beer, snack, and car ads that are integral to the annual sports and entertainment ritual. This activity—up from 900,000 people making Super Bowl posts during last year's game—is now happening at such a vast scale that executives in television, broadcast news, and advertising expect analytics of the comments to start shaping advertising choices—and even the direction of news coverage—in near real-time."

"Ice Bowl" Memories

I'm old enough to remember the infamous "Ice Bowl", the first Superbowl played in 1967. The Packers narrowly defeated the Cowboys, in weather conditions that defy description. The temperature was -15 F at gametime, with a wind chill of -50. Players complained of frostbitten fingers and toes. A metal whistle froze onto the lips of the referee. It was the coldest NFL game on record; probably the worst Superbowl weather ever.

Now we have climate-controlled, hermetically-sealed stadiums where players can focus on the game, not surviving the elements.

The last few days have been a bust with thick fog and stratus; highly unusual for February, when windblown cold fronts should be scrubbing our skies with arctic sunlight.

We see an average of 1.4 foggy days/month in February. So yes, this is a bit odd. Jet stream winds are blowing in from the Pacific. It's been mild enough for significant snowmelt, moistening the lowest layers of the atmosphere. Light winds and a low sun angle made it hard to burn away lazy clouds (fog).

With reluctant sun we should hit 40 today, mid 40s Monday, colder next week, then a shot at 50 the 3rd week of February. No snow - maybe rain by Feb. 14? Really. And in spite of a chance of a (real) snowstorm around February 20 I'm not getting too excited just yet. The long-range models have been especially erratic and untrustworthy as of late...I want to see a few more computer runs before I brush the cobwebs off my snow shovel. That said...we're due.

* Ice Bowl photo above courtesy of dsmweather.com.

Climate Stories....

Superbowl Tackles Climate Change. Discovery News reports: "The field won't be the only thing green about Super Bowl XLVI. The NFL has a plan in their playbook to tackle the carbon dioxide emissions caused by energy use at the six major Super Bowl facilities. Renewable energy certificates will pass 15,000 megawatt hours of clean energy to the NFL's environmental receivers. At the slick new Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis even the lights shining on the New York Giants and New England Patriots will be accounted for by renewable energy certificates provided by Green Mountain Energy Company."


Climate Change Predicted To Escalate Tropical Cyclone Damage Costs For U.S. And China. Indybay.org has the details: "A new study looking at the economic costs of tropical cyclone damage taking into account climate change, forecasts that tropical cyclones will cause $109 billion in damages by 2100. Increased vulnerability of populations and growing economic wealth is expected to double the costs from $26 billion per year to $56 billion by 2100. Climate change is predicted to add some $53 Billion in damages. Two countries are responsible for incurring 75% of the extra damage from climate change associated with tropical cyclones: the United States and China. But tropical island nations will incur the highest damage per GDP - up to 37%."


Extreme Rainfall In Central India In Past 50 Years. Zeenews.com has the story: "Meteorologists have observed a very high rise in the "extreme events of rainfall" in the country in the last 50 years, particularly in Central India region in a climate change that can be attributed to global warming.  The finding is noted by the scientists at the city-based Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology (IITM) which is engaged in various research projects relating to the monsoon behaviour in the country.  "We feel that the rise in extreme events of rainfall which has almost doubled in the past 50 years in Central India (excluding mountainous region) has a relation with global warming," B N Goswami, Director, IITM said in a talk with PTI."

February 4: Denver Digs Out (Marchlike warmth for most of the USA)

45 F. predicted high in Indianapolis for Sunday's Super Bowl.


Season's biggest snowfall in Denver (1-2 foot snows were reported in the metro area). Twitter photo courtesy of Joseph Labrecque in Denver and topsy.com.

First significant snow in Rome, Italy in 26 years.


A January To Remember. Twin Cities temperatures last month were 7.7 F. warmer than average, the 8th warmest in modern-day records. Details below.

"Football: you have to play this game like somebody just hit your mother with a two-by-four." - Dan Birdwell

Bad Day To Fly Through Denver. As of early afternoon Friday flightaware.com was reporting over 500 cancellations at KDEN, the result of white-out conditions, whipping 10-14" snow into 3-4 foot drifts.

Winter The Way It Was Meant To Be? Denver probably saw its biggest snowfall of the winter season, anywhere from 1-2 feet across most of the metro area, with near blizzard-conditions reported at times.

Photo credit above: "Lana Hill and her brother Paul Licari work to clear the snow from their car after an overnight snowfall in Arvada, Colo. on Friday, Feb. 3, 2012. A powerful winter storm swept across Colorado on Friday as it headed east, bringing blizzard warnings to eastern Colorado and western Kansas, and winter storm warnings for southeast Wyoming and western Nebraska. (AP Photo/The Denver Post, Joe Amon)."

Denver Snow Blitz. Thanks to Matt Herrmann for reminding snow-starved Minnesotans what a real storm looks like; a cool 11-15" in the immediate Denver metro area, but Black Hawke reported 48" (without the drifts!) NOAA is reporting 4-5 foot drifts in the Denver area, where kids had the day off from school, more than 500 flights were cancelled at KDEN, and a huge stretch of I-70 had to be closed due to treacherous conditions.



So Close... Snow-lovers are in mourning. Perpetual mourning. The video coming out of Denver isn't helping matters. The NAM model prints out over a foot of snow for eastern Nebraska, as much as 8-12" for Omaha and Sioux City, maybe an inch or two for Des Moines. Minnesota? Zilch. Nyet. Nada. Nothing. Same old story in the weather department.

February Starts Warm And Foggy. Dr. Mark Seeley has a good overview of recent weather trends in his weekly WeatherTalk blog: "Following the trend of previous months, February started very warm this week with temperatures ranging from 15 to 25 degrees F warmer than average. Some observers in western Minnesota reported new record highs for February 1st including: 50 F at Morris; 51 F at Benson; 52 F at Ortonville and St James; 55 F at Marshall; and 56 F at Minneota. On February 2nd afternoon temperatures again reached the 40s and 50s F in some places, as Rochester reported a new record high of 48 degrees F. It was the warmest first two days of February since 1931."

Photo credit above: "In this photo taken on Friday, February 3, 2012, the snowmobile trail in Wauconda, Ill., along Ivanhoe Road near Lakewood Forst Preserve is all mud thanks to the lack of lasting snowfalls this winter. The mild temperatures in January and February have kept the snowmobiles inside. (AP Photo/Daily Herald, Paul Valade)."



January Recap. The warmest temperatures in January were observed over the Red River Valley (as much as 8-11 F. warmer than normal). Data courtesy of the Midwestern Regional Climate Center at the U. of Illinois. Last month was the 7th warmest on record for St. Cloud, the 14th warmest for Eau Claire, Wisconsin. More details from the local NWS office here.

No End In Sight To The Warm Winter. The L.A. Times reports: "Birds were singing. Insects were buzzing. And a large skunk suddenly appeared in the road in front of meteorologist Paul Pastelok as he drove to work in rural Pennsylvania. Pastelok missed the skunk, but the close encounter this week was a reminder of how freakishly warm the winter has been from the Plains to the East Coast, and how the higher temperatures have upended everything from wildlife to resorts whose life cycles are dictated by snow. In New York City, where "unseasonably mild" and "balmy" have been the forecasts of late, temperatures this week have been at least 10 to 20 degrees warmer than the usual average high of 39, a pattern seen across much of the eastern half of the country."

Photo credit above: "New Yorkers and visitors are enjoying a mild winter in 2012, with January temperatures in the low 60's drawing a crowd to Central Park. New York City, which last year was staggering beneath 36 inches of snow by February 1, has seen just four inches fall so far this winter, and the remnants of the last storm melted away long ago. Similarly mild weather is widespread in the U.S. this winter. (Carolyn Cole/Los Angeles Times/MCT)."

Groundhog Day In A Year Without A Winter. Andrew Freedman over at Climate Central has the story: "The groundhog Punxsutawney Phil may have seen his shadow today, but the prospect of six more weeks of the mild winter of 2011/12 doesn't seem so terrible. In fact, now that we're past the typical coldest period of the year, the days are already getting longer, and the typical average temperatures are warming up day by day across the country. In many areas, this tame winter has been unusual but not unheard of. For example, in the Northeast, the winter has been one of the warmest and least snowy on record, but it has been warmer during past winters.   While winter temperatures have been increasing, on average, due to global warming, the mild winter this year is likely mainly due to natural climate variability, including a La Niña event in the Pacific Ocean and the orientation of the upper air jet stream. Temperatures in the Northeast have averaged at least 5°F above average since December, with very little snow cover, according to Art DeGaetano, a Cornell University climatologist and the director of the Northeast Regional Climate Center."

Snow Lovers Support Group. Thanks to the Washington Post's Capital Weather Gang for passing this along - check out more on their Facebook page.

Snow In Rome. Here's an amazing photo and post, courtesy of Earth Networks: "In the past 26 years, it's only snowed 8 times in Rome. Temperatures dropped overnight -30C (-22°F) as the city experienced its heaviest snowfall (40 cm...about 15 inches) in the northern outskirts by midday) since February 11, 1986. From @isabellawitter on Twitter – Snow on the Roman Forum."

Snow Falls In Rome For First Time In 26 Years, Death Toll Rises To 150. The U.K. Daily Mail has great information (and some spectacular photos): "Snow fell in Rome today (Friday) for the first time in 26 years as freezing temperatures took the death toll across Europe to more than 150. The Italian capital is usually blessed by a moderate climate, but the snowfall prompted authorities to stop visitors from entering the Colosseum, the Roman Forum and the Palatine Hill, the former home of Rome's ancient emperors. The last substantial snowfalls in Rome were in 1985 and 1986, though there have been other cases of lighter snow since then, including in 2010."

Photo credit above: "Boys throw snowballs in front of the Colosseum as snow falls in downtown Rome on Friday, Feb. 3, 2012. Snow is a rare occurrence for a capital usually blessed by a temperate climate. The snowfall prompted authorities to stop visitors from entering the Colosseum, the Roman Forum and the Palatine Hill, the former home of Rome's ancient emperors. (AP Photo/Riccardo De Luca)."

Snow In Unlikely Places. Much of America can't buy a snowflake, while Europe is getting hammered by heavy snow and unsually cold weather. Details: "Snow covers Vittorio Emanuele Bridge on the Tiber river as snow falls in downtown Rome on Friday, Feb. 3, 2012. Snowfall is a rare occurrence for a capital usually blessed by a temperate climate. The snowfall prompted authorities to stop visitors from entering the Colosseum, the Roman Forum and the Palatine Hill, the former home of Rome's ancient emperors. (AP Photo/Riccardo De Luca)."


Where Does The Deepest Snow On Earth Accumulate? Dr. Jeff Masters has the answer in his always-fascinating Wunderblog. Here's an excerpt: "Impressive as the depths recorded in North America might seem, the deepest snow on earth accumulates in the Japanese Alps of Honshu Island around the 2,000-6,000’ level. The average annual snowfall is estimated to be in the 1200-1500” range (see The Climate of Japan by E. Fukui p. 171). On Feb. 14, 1927 a snow depth of 465.4” was measured on Mt. Ibuki at 5,000 feet. In fact, these amazing snow depths are a singular tourist attraction since a highway that transects the mountains is kept open all winter. It is known as the Yuki-no-Otani Snow Canyon."

Still Waiting For A Real Cold Front. Not that I'm complaining or anything. I miss the snow, but not the negative numbers. Earlier Friday runs of the GFS were hinting at a harsher cold frontal passage around Feb. 18, but the latest run keeps the coldest air north/east of Minnesota, a continuation of a modified Pacific flow for Minnesota. 500 mb map above valid February 19.




Conflicting Signals. The AO (Arctic Oscillation) is trending negative, implying weaker westerly jet stream winds over North America, in theory, hinting at a growing chance of bitter air penetrating southward into the lower 48 states. yet the NAO (North Atlantic Oscillation) is still neutral to slightly positive after Feb. 12 or so. If both the AO and NAO were strongly negative I'd be far more confident about impending arctic air, but as it stands now I still don't see anything subzero through the third week of February. Could the subzero air (all 3 nights of it) already be behind us? Not willing to go that far...yet,  but with each passing day the odds of subzero weather drop off fairly significantly.


One More Time: What Winter? Check out the GFS predicted temperatures from Feb. 11-19. Highs reach the 30s and 40s - I wouldn't be shocked to see a 50-degre high around Feb. 16-17. Our lack of snow means temperatures can rise 5-15 degree higher than they would otherwise. This looks more like late March than the third week of February.

The First "Snow-Optional" Sled? Now here's a great idea, perfect for our meager winter. Check out the web site here (hanczar.com). More details from treehugger.com: "Right now, Polish designer Szymon Hanczar could probably use a regular sled, but earlier in the year he thought there might be a bit of a problem. "Not so long ago people in Poland used to take their sledges from the basements and take over all possible city hills. At that time snow still existed. As we are suffering from greenhouse effect and something like snow simply does not exist anymore, we are offering a brand- new, attractive and minimalist sledge, possible to use on all types of flat surfaces, sloping though."

West Coast Chill Lays Claim To The Title Of "World's First Self-Chilling Beverage." Now THIS is progress! Gizmag.com has the details: "Miller Beer may have announced its plans to do so several years ago, but now someone else is actually going through with it ... releasing a beverage in a self-chilling can, that is. At the end of the first quarter of this year, Joseph Company International will be launching its West Coast Chill all-natural energy drink, which will come in the company's patented Chill Can. When buyers press a tab on the can, the temperature of the liquid inside will decrease by 30ºF within three minutes."


Americans Will Devour 1.25 BILLION Chicken Wings During Super Bowl. I'm getting heartburn just typing this. Come to think of it, I'm hungry again. Western Farm Press has the tasty details: "Whether you are an avid football fan who can’t wait until kickoff or you’re part of the 40 percent going to a Super Bowl party just for the food, there’s a good chance you will be as close to chicken wings as the television on Sunday. In fact, the National Chicken Council estimates that Americans will consume nearly 1.25 billion wings during this year’s Super Bowl."


"You cannot shake hands with a clenched fist." - this quote is attributed to both Indira Gandhi and Golda Meir. Source: quotegarden.com

(Amazingly) Quiet Holding Pattern

Alaska is enduring one of the coldest, snowiest winters in state history. Europe and Asia have been bludgeoned by numbing cold and 8 foot drifts, but here in Minne-snowless we're still waiting, wondering, twiddling our thumbs, waxing our skies, tuning our sleds, waiting for the Winter Games to begin.

Talk about infrastructure: the new (invisible) Snow Dome high above Minnesota is doing a good job deflecting storms to our north and south. What else to account for dribs and drabs of snow; a FIFTH as much as we enjoyed last winter at this time.

The storm that pasted the Denver area with 1-2 feet of snow slides south of Minnesota today, the next chance of a lousy inch or two of slushy snow Feb. 14-15.

At this rate local TV stations will be leading their newscasts with cookie recipes and pothole alerts. We've lost our Winter Mojo, but weather (like life) is cyclical. There's always next winter. And in spite of highs mostly in the 30sand 40s  through mid February it would be wildly premature to entirely write off winter just yet.

Jet stream winds continue to blow (persistently) from the Pacific, not the Yukon. Friday morning it looked like we might experience a real cold front after Feb. 18, but later runs keep the coldest air well north in Canada. I still don't see anything subzero looking out 2 weeks. Beyond that the crystal ball gets murky in a hurry, but I'm beginning to think CPC's prediction of a (much) warmer than average February for most of America east of the Rockies is right on the money.  Welcome to what will probably turn out to be one of the 10 warmest winters on record for the USA.

"We should all be concerned about the future because we will have to spend the rest of our lives there." - Charles F. Kettering

Climate Stories....



Global Warming? Phooey! Here's a post from The Times And Democrat: "Pennsylvania’s Punxsutawney Phil had the gall to predict six MORE weeks of winter after allegedly seeing his shadow Thursday. Where has the stupid groundhog been, anyway? How can we have six more weeks of winter when we haven’t had enough cold weather to even call it winter? I think the mild temperatures this winter are part of a conspiracy staged by those global warming fanatics to try to fake us out. Just because flowers and trees are blooming like it’s the middle of spring and glaciers are melting and polar bears are rapidly running out of habitat because it’s melting, we certainly can’t jump to the conclusion that we’re responsible because we’re burning more and more fossil fuels and raising levels of greenhouses gases. How ridiculous is that! After all, God wouldn’t have given us all these natural resources unless he intended for us to use them all up, now would he?"

Photo credit above: "In this Feb. 1, 2012 photo, University of Tennessee-Chattanooga sophomore Sydney Lamb walks past blooming daffodils in Chattanooga, Tenn. Above average temperatures and rainfall have prompted an "early" spring in the region. (AP Photo/Chattanooga Times Free Press, Angela Lewis)."


Global Warming Or Not, This Winter Is Strange. The story from thesouthern.com (serving southern Illinois): "Streams of unconsciousness from the outdoors world:

- The globe is warmer: Whether or not you subscribe to global warming theories, you have to admit this has been a crazy warm winter.

It's so warm nature is confused. The maple tree in my yard is budding. I have crocus in bloom, daffodils ready to pop open and a planter at the end of my driveway full of blooming pansies. This is just screwed up. The pansies should have frozen and died sometime in later November or early December. The crocus should bloom when pitchers and catchers report for spring training - in about two weeks. And, I associate blooming daffodils with the Missouri Valley Conference basketball tournament - in about a month."


So Why Are The Plant Zones Changing? I know, now the USDA is in on "the conspiracy". Here's an excerpt of an Op Ed in The Washington Post: "The interesting front-page story about the shifts in the Agriculture Department’s plant hardiness zone maps since 1990 [“New plant map shifts area to warmer zone,” Jan. 26] included this headline on the continuing page: “Plant map doesn’t measure climate change.” However, nothing in the article discusses the relationship of the zone changes to climate change, whether global, national or regional. The nearly uniformly northward shifting zones reflect increases in “average winter low temperatures between 1976 and 2005 at 8,000 weather stations.” While this doesn’t fully measure all the changes in climate, if this nationwide pattern is not attributable to global climate change — specifically to the global warming that scientists have concluded is unequivocal — what, pray tell, is responsible? The failure of The Post, not only to make the connection with global climate change but also to seemingly disavow it, is most puzzling."


Global Warming: German Researchers Find More Evidence For Links Between Arctic Sea Ice Decline And European Weather. The story from the Summit County Citizens Voice: "SUMMIT COUNTY — German scientists say they’ve found more evidence showing links between declining Arctic sea ice and shifting weather patterns, with cold, snowy winters more likely in Europe following summers when Arctic sea ice is low. The researchers from the Alfred Wegener Institute for Polar and Marine Research say shrinking summertime sea ice cover changes the air pressure zones in the Arctic atmosphere, slowing westerly winds that usually transport relatively warm and moist air toward Europe. If there is a particularly large-scale melt of Arctic sea ice in summer, as observed in recent years, two important effects are intensified. Firstly, the retreat of the  ice leaves a darker ocean to warm up more in summer from  solar radiation."

Storm Over Climate Change Among Weather Forecasters. The story from Reuters and The Chicago Tribune: "You don't need a weatherman to know which way the wind blows. But weather forecasters, many of whom see climate change as a natural, cyclical phenomenon, are split over whether they have a responsibility to educate their viewers on the link between human activity and the change in the Earth's climates. Only 19 percent of U.S. meteorologists saw human influences as the sole driver of climate change in a 2011 survey. And some, like the Weather Channel's founder John Coleman are vocal in their opposition. "It is the greatest scam in history," wrote Coleman, one of the first meteorologists to publicly express doubts about climate change, on his blog in 2007. "I am amazed, appalled and highly offended by it. Global Warming; it is a SCAM."