November 6: Record 14 Separate Billion Dollar Weather Disasters in '11

4.7 magnitude earthquake in central Oklahoma Saturday morning, second strongest tremor ever recorded.

6" snow reported at Flagstaff, Arizona Saturday.

Fraying Tempers. Tempers are snapping as fast as the snow-laden branches that brought down power wires across the Northeast last weekend, with close to 300,000 Connecticut customers still in the ark and the state's biggest utility warning them not to threaten or harass repair crews. Source: AP.

“...This is the biggest storm we’ve ever had,” Reed said. “I know I said that after the tornado and I said it again after hurricane Irene. But this is the biggest.” - story on the impact of "Snow-tober on the power grid below.



14 separate billion dollar disasters in 2011. Previous record was 9 billion dollar disasters in 1998. Details below.

October Snowstorm "Biggest Storm We've Ever Faced" National Grid President Marcy Reed Says. Masslive.com has the amazing details: "WILBRAHAM — National Grid hopes to have power substantially restored by Friday, but isolated pockets of outages in some neighborhoods will persist through he weekend, Marcy L. Reed, president of National Grid in Massachusetts, said Friday morning following a meeting with town officials. Reed explained and defended the utility’s storm response in a town where many were still without power Friday, more than five days after an unusually heavy, wet October snowfall brought trees down on wires and utility poles around the region. “This is the biggest storm we’ve ever had,” Reed said. “I know I said that after the tornado and I said it again after hurricane Irene. But this is the biggest.”



120 Hour Snowfall Accumulation. This is based on the GFS model, valid through 1 pm Thursday. The next southern storm tracks south/east of Minnesota Tuesday and Wednesday, enough cold air mixing into the circulation for a changeover to wet snow across central and southern Wisconsin, where some 1-3" snowfall amounts are possible. A little slush may fall over far southeastern Minnesota, but right now it does NOT look impressive for accumulating snow across Minnesota.



Shifting Storm Track. Storms spin up along the most significant temperature contrasts. The storm pushing into Canada will pump chilly air south of the border, pushing that temperature extreme closer to Kansas City and Chicago. Another storm is forecast to form over the panhandle of Texas and turn northeast, pushing a cold rain and possibly a little wet snow into the Upper Midwest by midweek.

Minnesota Deer Hunting Opener. The Minnesota State Climatology Office has some interesting weather factoids about weather on the deer hunting firearm opener: "Minnesota's 2011 Firearm Deer Hunting Opener is Saturday, November 5. The normal high temperature for November 5 ranges from the upper 30s across northern Minnesota to the upper 40s near the Iowa border. The average low temperature is in the 20s. The historical probability of receiving measurable precipitation on November 5 is approximately 25%. Early November precipitation often falls as snow in the north, while rain is more likely in the south. An enduring, winter-long snow cover is typically not established until later in November, even in northern Minnesota. The 2010 Firearm Deer Hunting Opener on November 6 was quite mild and mostly dry throughout Minnesota. High temperatures were generally in the mid to upper 50's with lows in the mid 20's to around 30."

St. Cloud Data. It has snowed only 2 of the last 9 Deer Hunting Openers in the St. Cloud area, a whopping 3.8" snow on November 4, 2003 in St. Cloud. The last 2 years have been quite mild,  with a high of 62 in 2009 and 58 last year. Data courtesy of the MN State Climate Office.




LSU-'Bama Game Bright Spot In Tornado-Ravaged City. The Shreveport Times has the story of what Saturday night's epic college football game meant to the city of Tuscaloosa, Alabama - hit incredibly hard in April of this year. Finally, locals had something to feel good about, as reported by the Shreveport Times: "TUSCALOOSA, Ala. — Six months after a tornado stripped this community and its people to their core, the only discernible aspect of a pile of rubble off Hargrove Road, presumably the former site of a home, is the local battle cry — "Roll Tide" — in crimson spray paint. This town has long been painted in crimson and white; the University of Alabama boasts some of the most avid fans in the land, but the color combination doesn't simply symbolize a passion for athletics any longer. It's hope. It's a reprieve. It's all some people have left. Sports have long been crucial to the people of our country in desperate times. Amid tragedy, fans' "congratulations" become a collective "thank you." The process is certainly familiar to folks in Louisiana.The last time Tuscaloosa caught a nation's eye, 12 percent of the town of 90,000 had just been wiped out by an EF4 tornado, believed to be 1½ miles wide at times."


Billion Dollar Plus U.S. Weather Disasters Keep Piling Up. From Huffington Post: "Some initial damage reports of the massive and record-breaking snow storm of last week are in, and damage in Connecticut alone will top $3 billion, according to Connecticut Governor Dannel Malloy. The snow storm was the 14th billion dollar plus weather disaster of the year in the U.S. alone, adding to what's already been a record-breaking year for the number of billion dollar weather disasters. The previous record the number of billion dollar disasters in one year was nine in 1998, and the records have been kept since 1980. Tropical Storm Lee and flooding associated with its remnants was the 13th billion dollar plus weather disaster in early September, which followed quickly on the heels of the very damaging Hurricane Irene in late August. Lee caused an estimated $1 billion-plus in damage, and Irene tallied over $7 billion in damages. Otherwise, the hurricane season -- although active in terms of the number of storms -- did not contribute to the number of billion dollar disasters. The horrendous tornado season did, though, producing the two most damaging weather events to date, in terms of property damage and loss of lives." (photo above courtesy of thedailyleicester.com).


* Dr. Jeff Masters has a comprehensive article listing all 14 billion dollar disasters in 2011 (a new record) here.


14 Billion Dollar Disasters. The October 29 "Snow-tober" event was the 14th billion dollar weather disaster in 2011. The graphic above is courtesy of Jeff Master's Wunderblog, AON Benfield and NCDC.

Drought Continues To Develop In Southern Minnesota. According to NOAA's Drought Monitor more than 99% of Minnesota is "abnormally dry" and 40% of the state is in a moderate drought. The situation is getting wworse, especially south/west of the Twin Cities. We need a few good, long, soaking rainfalls - before the ground freezes up solid by late November. Here's more from Mark Seeley in this week's WeatherTalk blog: "Many Minnesota weather observers in southern counties are reporting large precipitation deficiencies since July. In fact the USA Drought Monitor shows that across southern Minnesota, from Lincoln County eastward to Goodhue County and from the Iowa border north to McLeod County much of the landscape is in moderate to severe drought, especially portions of Watonwan and Martin Counties. Many observers in southwestern and south-central Minnesota have reported their driest August through October period in history. Some of the locations reporting the least amount of rainfall over this 3-month period include: 1.93 inches at Winnebago; 1.03 inches at Marshall; 1.85 inches at Worthington; 1.35 inches at St Peter; 1.41 inches at St James; 1.30 inches at Lamberton; 1.28 inches at Windom; 1.65 inches at Fairmont; and 1.59 inches at Canby."


National Conditions. The drought has eased over central and southern Florida, but exceptional drought continues to grip a huge swatch of real estate from New Mexico, Texas and Oklahoma into western Louisiana, and much of the southeast. More from NOAA's Drought Monitor here.

November Outlook. According to CPC (Climate Prediction Center) there's a pretty good chance the month of November will wind up milder than average for the nation's mid-section, from the Rockies to the Great Lakes and Mid South, a cold bias for the far western USA. Looking at the maps I tend to agree. The full impact of La Nina may not kick in until December and January.

Lake Effect On The Great Salt Lake? I can't remember the last time I've seen this, snow bands setting up over Salt Lake, with a good explanation from the SLC National Weather Service.

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First Freeze For Dallas-Fort Worth. From the DFW NWS Office: “The first freeze of the season hit (Friday) morning. The lowest known temperature was 24 at Waco and Comanche. 26 degrees was recorded in Mineral Wells, while 27 and 28 degree readings were common. The temperature dropped to 29 degrees at Alliance Airport in Tarrant/Denton Counties…but most of the metroplex remained above 32 degrees overnight.”

How To (Safely) Drive Through A Dust Storm. I've never seen anything quite like this, courtesy of the Tucson National Weather Service Office. Hey, you never know - parts of Texas are enduring some of the driest conditions since the Dust Bowl of 1936. Drought conditions are growing across Minnesota. With any luck we won't have to drive through any dust storms anytime soon, but just in case....

2011 Hurricane Season. 17 named storms - an impressive hurricane season. Of course the big stories were Hurricane Irene and Tropical Storm Lee. Click here to see the tracks, courtesy of NHC.



Corp Pledges To Use Lessons From Flooding. It was a humbling summer for people living along the Missouri River and it's tributaries - as well as the Army Corp of Engineers. The Yankton Press and Dakotan explains what was learned from this summer's record floods: “No manual told you to do this to us,” said one woman, referring to the Corps’ master manual for operating the Missouri River. Farhat emphasized the Corps could not foresee the torrential rains in the upper basin that led to the record releases from the mainstem dams. The 160,000 cubic feet per second at Gavins Point Dam near Yankton and Fort Randall Dam at Pickstown more than doubled the dams’ old records. “You have our heartfelt condolences for your losses and the sacrifices that you lived through all summer,” Farhat told the audience. Those remarks were echoed by Brigadier General John McMahon, the Corps’ Northwestern Division Commander. “This was a very regrettable and unfortunate event,” he told the audience. “You have to know we are sincerely sorry for what you have been through.” During Thursday’s meeting, dozens of flood victims urged the Corps to change its plan and release more water to head off a repeat of this summer’s disasters." (photo above: northjersey.com).

 
360 Panorama. Check out this cool sunset from Lee Smith in California using a tool that allows you to see a 360 degree panorama of the scene from 360 Panorama. These guys just took sunrises and sunsets to the next level.

Knowing Our Limits

Could Minnesota see another Armistice Day blizzard or Fridley tornado outbreak with little or no warning? Probably not. There's too much technology, a 24/7 news cycle - scores of meteorologists in Minnesota fixated on what comes next. TV news updates have given way to customized e-mail alerts, web maps and GPS-centric apps. We live in an on-demand weather world. One caveat: the historic October 29 "Snow-tober" storm that paralyzed much of New England showed up on weather models only 24-36 hours before the flakes began to fly. In contrast, I got a jump on last December's 17" snowfall about 5 days before the metro area got hammered. The truth: every storm is different. We'll still bust the 7-Day, but the odds of being totally surprised by a deadly storm are mercifully small.

Climate Stories...

Why North Dakota Is Really Suing Minnesota. Michael Noble has an interesting post for Fresh Energy: "After four years of threatening to sue Minnesota over its climate change policies, North Dakota finally did. First thing you should notice: it’s North Dakota’s lignite coal industry, electric companies, and their trade association who are suing Minnesota, and the state is the front man. You see, John Dwyer, the president of North Dakota’s coal industry council for the past 30 years, is more powerful than any governor or attorney general. He’s outlasted a bunch of them, and according to long-time observers of Bismarck politics, he calls the shots on utility matters The coal industry’s argument is very simple: by placing restrictions on the burning or importing of additional coal in the electric sector, Minnesota is both discriminating against North Dakota and violating the Commerce Clause of the U.S. Constitution. The North Dakota litany of grievances is outlined in this fact sheet."

Global CO2 Emissions Rising Faster Than Worst-Case Scenarios. From the Washington Post: "One of the small consolations of the Great Recessions was that global greenhouse-gas emissions had dipped slightly, giving the world a few years’ breathing room to figure out how to tackle global warming. But the Copenhagen climate talks fizzled, the world didn’t take advantage of the lull, and the grace period’s now over. According to new data from the Department of Energy’s Oak Ridge National Lab, global carbon-dioxide emissions just saw their biggest one-year rise, a 6 percent jump in 2010. The striking thing is that emissions are now rising faster than the worst-case scenarios envisioned by the IPCC in its 2007 report. What would this mean for global warming? The chart (above), from a 2009 study by MIT’s Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Climate Change, lays out the possibilities. If emissions keep growing at their current pace, then the average prediction from MIT’s modeling is that the world could heat up 5.2°C by 2100. But that’s just the average. There’s a 9 percent chance that global surface temperatures could rise more than 7°C — truly uncharted territory. And as we keep adding carbon-dioxide into the air, the odds that we’ll be able to dodge a drastic rise in temperatures become very, very low."

IPCC Report Adds To Studies Tying Climate Change To Extreme Weather. WRI Insights has an overview of the IPCC report that is about to be released: "According to media coverage, the forthcoming “Special Report on Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance Climate Change Adaptation” warns that a warmer world will likely lead to disruptive changes in the frequency and magnitude of extreme events, such as wildfires, heat waves and cyclones.
These findings are consistent with those from other authoritative scientific assessments:

• In 2009, the U.S. Climate Change Science Program, which is sponsored by 13 federal government agencies in the United States, issued an assessment concluding that human activities have likely been contributing to warmer nights, heat waves, and heavy downpours. They also warned that drought in the American Southwest is likely to worsen in a warming world, with severe implications for water availability and wildfires.
  
• In 2011, a climate science assessment by the U.S. National Academy of Sciences reached the same conclusions, noting that the U.S. has been no exception to these global trends.
  
• The IPCC’s Fourth Assessment Report has also determined that there has been an increase in extreme weather events such as heat waves, intense rainfall events, and category 4 and 5 storms, as well as drying trends across much of the northern and southern hemispheres.."
  

Eye Of The Storm. The Daily Beast focuses in on climate change; how women worldwide are more apt to be impacted than men: "The past decade has seen natural disasters on an unprecedented scale: “Hundred-year” floods are hitting Western Europe and India every two or three years; hurricane and tornadoes of extraordinary strength are ravaging every continent; agriculture systems from Somalia to Texas are collapsing under the assault of unrelenting drought. But what is lesser known is how the effects of these environmental catastrophes—whether sudden or slow-moving—are disproportionately borne by women. Disaster is seldom gender-neutral. The gap is easiest to see in the most acute disasters. In the 2004 Southeast Asia tsunami, death rates for women across the region averaged three to four times that of men. That’s in part because girls and women, per tradition, were less likely to have been taught how to swim. Also, many lacked the upper body strength necessary to climb to safety or cling to a tree; and, most tragically, in a fast-moving storm surge, mothers who stopped to find and gather up children or other dependents lost valuable time, which in some cases meant the difference between life and death."

Dr. Muller's Findings. Here's an Op-Ed in the New York Times: "Richard Muller, a prominent American physicist, was so skeptical about data showing a gradual warming of the Earth’s surface that he decided to investigate for himself. The results of his two-year inquiry — partially bankrolled by the Charles Koch Foundation, whose founder is a prominent global-warming denier — are now in. And, voilà, the Earth is indeed warming, just as most scientists have been saying for years. The main finding by Mr. Muller and his team at the University of California at Berkeley is that land temperatures have risen about 1 degree Celsius (or 1.8 degrees Fahrenheit) since 1950. This matches findings by the National Academy of Sciences, federal agencies and independent American and British researchers whose work has been repeatedly attacked by climate deniers and opponents of efforts to limit emissions of greenhouse gases."

November 5: High Winds - Mild November For Central USA?

Good Luck Out There. This will be one of the mildest Deer Hunting Firearm Openers in recent memory, highs in the 50s, topping 60 over parts of southern Minnesota. Sun fades behind increasing high clouds - the big story will be the wind, gusting into the 30-40 mph range at times.

Wind Advisory posted for much of central and southwestern Minnesota. Details below.

Wisconsin Snowfall Next Week? GFS, European (ECMWF) and Canadian (GEM) weather models keep the heaviest precipitation just east of Minnesota next week, a southern storm pushing a period of rain changing to snow from eastern Iowa across central and northern Wisconsin. Right now it looks like a potential snow-maker for Rhinelander, Oshkosh, Tomah, even the Wisconsin Dells, with some slush over far southeastern Minnesota. It's still too early, confidence levels are low.


Wind Advisory In Effect. Details from the local Twin Cities National Weather Service office:

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM TO 7 PM CDT
SATURDAY...

A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM TO 7 PM CDT
SATURDAY.

* TIMING...LATE SATURDAY MORNING AND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE
  WIND SHOULD BEGIN TO TAPER OFF EARLY SATURDAY EVENING.

* WINDS...SOUTH WINDS AROUND 30 MPH WITH GUSTS AROUND 45 MPH.

* IMPACTS...VEHICLES MAY HAVE A DIFFICULT TIME...ESPECIALLY
  THOSE DRIVING EAST OR WEST. BOATERS SHOULD BE VERY CAREFUL
  SINCE WAVES COULD GET RATHER CHOPPY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WIND ADVISORY MEANS THAT WINDS OF AT LEAST 30 MPH ARE EXPECTED.
WINDS THIS STRONG CAN MAKE DRIVING DIFFICULT...ESPECIALLY FOR
HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES. USE EXTRA CAUTION. BOATERS MAY NEED TO
POSTPONE ACTIVITIES OR MOVE TO SHELTERED WATERS.

Minnesota Deer Hunting Opener. The Minnesota State Climatology Office has some interesting weather factoids about weather on the deer hunting firearm opener: "Minnesota's 2011 Firearm Deer Hunting Opener is Saturday, November 5. The normal high temperature for November 5 ranges from the upper 30s across northern Minnesota to the upper 40s near the Iowa border. The average low temperature is in the 20s. The historical probability of receiving measurable precipitation on November 5 is approximately 25%. Early November precipitation often falls as snow in the north, while rain is more likely in the south. An enduring, winter-long snow cover is typically not established until later in November, even in northern Minnesota. The 2010 Firearm Deer Hunting Opener on November 6 was quite mild and mostly dry throughout Minnesota. High temperatures were generally in the mid to upper 50's with lows in the mid 20's to around 30."


St. Cloud Data. It has snowed only 2 of the last 9 Deer Hunting Openers in the St. Cloud area, a whopping 3.8" snow on November 4, 2003 in St. Cloud. The last 2 years have been quite mild,  with a high of 62 in 2009 and 58 last year. Data courtesy of the MN State Climate Office.



Close Encounter Next Tuesday? The GFS model tracks a significant storm just south and east of MSP next week, enough cold air drawn into the strengthening low pressure system for a stripe of heavy (6"+) snowfall amounts over central Wisconsin, maybe a couple inches for far southeastern MN, closer to La Crosse. Again, it's still too early to deliver a forecast with any kind of confidence. If you're traveling next week, especially south/east of the metro area, you'll want to check in for updates.


Drought Continues To Develop In Southern Minnesota. According to NOAA's Drought Monitor more than 99% of Minnesota is "abnormally dry" and 40% of the state is in a moderate drought. The situation is getting wworse, especially south/west of the Twin Cities. We need a few good, long, soaking rainfalls - before the ground freezes up solid by late November. Here's more from Mark Seeley in this week's WeatherTalk blog: "Many Minnesota weather observers in southern counties are reporting large precipitation deficiencies since July. In fact the USA Drought Monitor shows that across southern Minnesota, from Lincoln County eastward to Goodhue County and from the Iowa border north to McLeod County much of the landscape is in moderate to severe drought, especially portions of Watonwan and Martin Counties. Many observers in southwestern and south-central Minnesota have reported their driest August through October period in history. Some of the locations reporting the least amount of rainfall over this 3-month period include: 1.93 inches at Winnebago; 1.03 inches at Marshall; 1.85 inches at Worthington; 1.35 inches at St Peter; 1.41 inches at St James; 1.30 inches at Lamberton; 1.28 inches at Windom; 1.65 inches at Fairmont; and 1.59 inches at Canby."


November Outlook. According to CPC (Climate Prediction Center) there's a pretty good chance the month of November will wind up milder than average for the nation's mid-section, from the Rockies to the Great Lakes and Mid South, a cold bias for the far western USA. Looking at the maps I tend to agree. The full impact of La Nina may not kick in until December and January.


Hurricane-Force Winds Buffet Utah. Check out some of these wind gusts on Friday, as high as 76 mph. at Signal Peak, at an altitude of 8,792 feet. Map courtesy of the Salt Lake NWS.


First Freeze For Dallas-Fort Worth. From the DFW NWS Office: “The first freeze of the season hit this morning. The lowest known temperature was 24 at Waco and Comanche. 26 degrees was recorded in Mineral Wells, while 27 and 28 degree readings were common. The temperature dropped to 29 degrees at Alliance Airport in Tarrant/Denton Counties…but most of the metroplex remained above 32 degrees overnight.”


How To (Safely) Drive Through A Dust Storm. I've never seen anything quite like this, courtesy of the Tucson National Weather Service Office. Hey, you never know - parts of Texas are enduring some of the driest conditions since the Dust Bowl of 1936. Drought conditions are growing across Minnesota. With any luck we won't have to drive through any dust storms anytime soon, but just in case....

2011 Hurricane Season. 17 named storms - an impressive hurricane season. Of course the big stories were Hurricane Irene and Tropical Storm Lee. Click here to see the tracks, courtesy of NHC.


Tin Foil Hat Time. Is DST, Daylight Saving Time, a conspiracy of sorts? Here's an interesting post from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet: "The sham that is daylight saving time ends this weekend and so to encourage those who wear tin foil hats, the featured chart is presented comparing two periods of the day computed in CST and CDT....From an energy perspective, the result is potentially favorable for businesses to save a bit on cooling in the summertime and heating in the winter time. It is a conspiracy! Of course, when we are at home, the effect is reversed, so we have slightly warmer sleeping periods in the summer with CDT and cooler sleeping periods in the winter with CST. Your head is probably spinning trying to follow the logic presented, but think how CDT shifts the work day into earlier in the day to leave more light at night and time for lawyers to golf after work (net cooler, less cooling bill)."



Bad Idea. Please don't try this at home.

"Clean Coal"

North Dakota is suing Minnesota, claiming our Next Generation Energy Act limiting carbon emissions from power generated outside the state (from burning coal) is unconstitutional. Curious timing: 2010 saw the largest increase in greenhouse gases ever observed worldwide; a 6% increase from 2009 to 2010, or 564 million tons. "From an emissions standpoint, the global financial crisis seems to be over" said Energy Department's Tim Boden in a USA Today article.

Coincidence? Record drought, 1 in 100 year storms every 3 years, an April record for tornadoes (748 in one month) - now a freakish, historic snowstorm in the northeast that took a bigger toll on the electrical grid than Hurricane Irene. Turns out a 4% increase in water vapor is spiking both summer and winter storms.

Climate Stories...


Global CO2 Emissions Rising Faster Than Worst-Case Scenarios. From the Washington Post: "One of the small consolations of the Great Recessions was that global greenhouse-gas emissions had dipped slightly, giving the world a few years’ breathing room to figure out how to tackle global warming. But the Copenhagen climate talks fizzled, the world didn’t take advantage of the lull, and the grace period’s now over. According to new data from the Department of Energy’s Oak Ridge National Lab, global carbon-dioxide emissions just saw their biggest one-year rise, a 6 percent jump in 2010. The striking thing is that emissions are now rising faster than the worst-case scenarios envisioned by the IPCC in its 2007 report. What would this mean for global warming? The chart (above), from a 2009 study by MIT’s Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Climate Change, lays out the possibilities. If emissions keep growing at their current pace, then the average prediction from MIT’s modeling is that the world could heat up 5.2°C by 2100. But that’s just the average. There’s a 9 percent chance that global surface temperatures could rise more than 7°C — truly uncharted territory. And as we keep adding carbon-dioxide into the air, the odds that we’ll be able to dodge a drastic rise in temperatures become very, very low."



IPCC Report Adds To Studies Tying Climate Change To Extreme Weather. WRI Insights has an overview of the IPCC report that is about to be released: "According to media coverage, the forthcoming “Special Report on Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance Climate Change Adaptation” warns that a warmer world will likely lead to disruptive changes in the frequency and magnitude of extreme events, such as wildfires, heat waves and cyclones.
These findings are consistent with those from other authoritative scientific assessments:

• In 2009, the U.S. Climate Change Science Program, which is sponsored by 13 federal government agencies in the United States, issued an assessment concluding that human activities have likely been contributing to warmer nights, heat waves, and heavy downpours. They also warned that drought in the American Southwest is likely to worsen in a warming world, with severe implications for water availability and wildfires.
• In 2011, a climate science assessment by the U.S. National Academy of Sciences reached the same conclusions, noting that the U.S. has been no exception to these global trends.
• The IPCC’s Fourth Assessment Report has also determined that there has been an increase in extreme weather events such as heat waves, intense rainfall events, and category 4 and 5 storms, as well as drying trends across much of the northern and southern hemispheres.."

Eye Of The Storm. The Daily Beast focuses in on climate change; how women worldwide are more apt to be impacted than men: "The past decade has seen natural disasters on an unprecedented scale: “Hundred-year” floods are hitting Western Europe and India every two or three years; hurricane and tornadoes of extraordinary strength are ravaging every continent; agriculture systems from Somalia to Texas are collapsing under the assault of unrelenting drought. But what is lesser known is how the effects of these environmental catastrophes—whether sudden or slow-moving—are disproportionately borne by women. Disaster is seldom gender-neutral. The gap is easiest to see in the most acute disasters. In the 2004 Southeast Asia tsunami, death rates for women across the region averaged three to four times that of men. That’s in part because girls and women, per tradition, were less likely to have been taught how to swim. Also, many lacked the upper body strength necessary to climb to safety or cling to a tree; and, most tragically, in a fast-moving storm surge, mothers who stopped to find and gather up children or other dependents lost valuable time, which in some cases meant the difference between life and death."


Dr. Muller's Findings. Here's an Op-Ed in the New York Times: "Richard Muller, a prominent American physicist, was so skeptical about data showing a gradual warming of the Earth’s surface that he decided to investigate for himself. The results of his two-year inquiry — partially bankrolled by the Charles Koch Foundation, whose founder is a prominent global-warming denier — are now in. And, voilà, the Earth is indeed warming, just as most scientists have been saying for years. The main finding by Mr. Muller and his team at the University of California at Berkeley is that land temperatures have risen about 1 degree Celsius (or 1.8 degrees Fahrenheit) since 1950. This matches findings by the National Academy of Sciences, federal agencies and independent American and British researchers whose work has been repeatedly attacked by climate deniers and opponents of efforts to limit emissions of greenhouse gases."

November 4: Indian Summer Returns (northeast snow damage worse than "Irene")

60 on Saturday? With a gusty south/southeast wind (15-30 mph) temperatures may be 10-15 degrees above average statewide, 50s statewide, with some low 60s possible south of the Minnesota River. This may wind up being one of the warmer Minnesota Deer Hunting Openers in recent memory.


Fall Back 1 Hour Saturday Night. Heading back to standard time - an extra hour of sleep this weekend. Woo hoo!

First snow event next week? There's a (slight) chance of wet snow next Wednesday night or Thursday morning - latest models take the storm a little too far south and east for any accumulation in the Twin Cities. But it's still early...

30 and 40-degree highs after November 18 or so, based on GFS model guidance.

Close Encounter. From NASA: "NASA scientists will be tracking asteroid 2005 YU55 with antennas of the agency's Deep Space Network at Goldstone, Calif., as the space rock safely flies past Earth slightly closer than the moon's orbit on Nov. 8. Scientists are treating the flyby of the 1,300-foot-wide (400-meter) asteroid as a science target of opportunity -- allowing instruments on "spacecraft Earth" to scan it during the close pass." Details below.


Fire Weather Watch. A watch means conditions are ripe (for brushfire). Red Flag Warnings are in effect for far southwestern Minnesota, where winds will be strongest - meaning a heightened risk of fire. From the local Twin Cities office of the National Weather Service:

......A FIRE WEATHER WATCH IS IN EFFECT FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR CENTRAL AND MOST OF SOUTHERN MINNESOTA DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF DRY FINE FUELS...STRONG WINDS...AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME...

MINNESOTA WILL FIND ITSELF IN BETWEEN A STRONG FALL SYSTEM DEVELOPING IN THE ROCKIES AND AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OFF TO THE EAST TOMORROW AFTERNOON. THE RESULT WILL BE STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS WHICH WILL STRENGTHEN DURING THE LATE MORNING AND CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON. SUSTAINED WINDS BETWEEN 15 AND 25 MPH WITH GUSTS OVER 30 MPH ARE EXPECTED ALONG WITH LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES BETWEEN 20% AND 30%. FURTHERMORE...MANY LOCATIONS IN MINNESOTA HAVE RECEIVED ONLY AN INCH OR LESS OF RAIN SINCE SEPTEMBER PRODUCING VERY DRY FINE FUELS. DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF THESE FACTORS...A FIRE WEATHER WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON IN CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MINNESOTA. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO ONLY BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S WHICH MAY TEMPER FIRE GROWTH POTENTIAL A BIT. HOWEVER...THE STRONG WINDS AND VERY DRY FUELS ARE ENOUGH TO OVERRIDE THE COOL TEMPERATURES.

THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE IN WESTERN MINNESOTA.

Weekend Storm Track. The heaviest snows usually fall north/west of the storm track. That will mean significant snow for the northern Rockies extending into the western Dakotas. But a south/southeast flow on the east side of the storm track will mean highs in the 50s and 60s as far north as Minnesota and Wisconsin. Map courtesy of NOAA.

Saturday Winds Aloft. Predicted winds at 500 mb (about 18,000 feet above the ground) show a deep trough of low pressure over the Intermountain West, another stormy surge of energy/moisture diving southeastward toward Los Angeles. Saturday's storm will pass well west of Minnesota, keeping the Twin Cities, Chicago and St. Louis on the warm/eastern side of the storm track, meaning highs in the 50s and 60s, well above average for early November.



Snow Potential Next Wednesday? Here's the latest GFS model, showing an impressive storm tracking south/east of Minnesota the middle of next week, loaded with moisture from the Gulf of Mexico. It's too early for specifics, but I could envision a cold rain mixing with and even changing over to snow by Wednesday of next week, with the best chance of a sloppy mix coming south and east of MSP. Stay tuned...


Surface Map: Next Wednesday Night. The latest models push the storm track farther south and east, just brushing southeastern MN with a cold rain, possibly mixed with wet snow late Wednesday into Thursday morning of next week. Still too early....

Stormy Spell For The West. Here is information from the Flagstaff office of the National Weather Service - snow is predicted above 6,000 feet.

Storm-Downed Power Lines Bring Complaints - And Lessons In Physics Of The Grid. Hundreds of thousands of residents of the northeast (still without power, nearly a week after the freakish "Snow-tober" storm) are rapdily losing their sense of humor, as reported by The Washington Post: "NEW YORK — With our wireless Internet connections and far-ranging cell phones, it’s easy to forget the hard-wired electricity that powers our homes and gadgets — until the lights go out. But the freak fall snowstorm that left millions of homes in the Northeast dark this week is delivering a startling reminder of the limits — imposed by both dollars and physics — that keep many Americans reliant on above-ground wires for power, more than a century after Thomas Edison created the modern electrical utility business.

Despite a technological revolution that has transformed the ways people communicate in barely a generation, the mechanics of delivering the electricity that powers all those new devices remains fundamentally unchanged. The outages have ignited anger among some utility customers, many of whom also lost power during Hurricane Irene in August. Some are demanding to know why power providers haven’t spent the money or adapted the technology necessary to prevent such problems."

 

Connecticut Snow Damage Exceeded Hurricane Irene. Strange, but (apparently) true. Here's a story from Bloomberg News and sfgate.com: "Damage from an early snowstorm in the Northeast will exceed the costs from Hurricane Irene for the state of Connecticut, as utility crews work to restore power for 99 percent of customers in the next four days. About 538,000 Connecticut homes and businesses remain blacked out today, more than half of the estimated 1.07 million still without electricity across the Northeast four days after the storm, according to data compiled by Bloomberg from utility and state websites. "People's frustration has been mounting," Connecticut Governor Dannel Malloy, a Democrat, said at a press conference today in Hartford. "Mine has been too." Record October snow amounts fell in Hartford and New York City, collapsing trees and branches that hadn't yet shed leaves. More than 3 million customers lost power from the snow, which began Oct. 29 and fell from West Virginia to Maine. Hurricane Irene, which hit the region in August, cut power to an estimated 6.69 million customers." (photo above courtesy of The Examiner).

Northeast Loses School Days To Irene, Snow. The story from USA Today: "HARTFORD, Conn. (AP) – Education officials in the Northeast worried Thursday about having to shorten school vacations to make up for all the days students have missed because of power failures caused by last weekend's snowstorm, combined with days lost to Hurricane Irene at the start of the academic year. Many schools are closed this entire week as crews continue efforts to restore power to about 760,000 utility customers who remain in the dark in several states Thursday. Last weekend's storm dumped an inch to more than 30 inches of wet, heavy snow across the region and took down thousands of trees and wires, cutting power to more than 3 million homes and businesses."



Power Outage Update. Here is a  state-by-state look, as of Thursday evening, at some of the effects of the late October storm that shocked the Northeast during the weekend with up to 32 inches of snow. About 675,000 homes and businesses still lacked power, and at least 29 deaths, including one in Canada, were blamed on the storm through traffic accidents, electrocutions or other causes. Information courtesy of Chad Merrill at Earth Networks:


CONNECTICUT
About 426,000 customers without power, down from more than 800,000. At least eight deaths reported.
MASSACHUSETTS
More than 140,000 without power, down from more than 670,000.
NEW HAMPSHIRE
About 20,000 without power, down from 315,000.
NEW JERSEY
About 50,000 without power, down from 700,000.
NEW YORK
More than 18,000 without power Wednesday morning, down from more than 300,000.
PENNSYLVANIA
About 21,000 without power, down from about a half-million. At least eight deaths reported.

* photo above courtesy of the Christian Science Monitor.

NASA In Final Preparations For November 8 Asteroid Fly-By. Details from NASA: "NASA will start tracking an aircraft carrier sized asteroid with a 70 ft Deep Space network antenna tomorrow at 11:30 CDT and continue tracking it until Nov. 10th. The asteroid, called 2005 YU55, will pass just inside the moon’s orbit, and should have no detectable gravitational impact on Earth. The asteroid orbits around Mars and Venus, and passes this close to Earth every 200 years. The last time an asteroid of this size passed this close to Earth was in 1976, and NASA did not know about it until it had already passed. Another situation similar to this will happen again in 2028."

Uranus Has A Bright New Spot, Picture Shows. National Geographic has more details. "In a surprise to astronomers, Uranus recently presented onlookers with a new spot on its northern hemisphere. Near-infrared pictures from the 8.1-meter Gemini North Telescope in Hawaii have revealed a region on the giant planet that's much brighter than its surroundings. The spot is likely a tall methane cloud that reaches high enough for us to see sunlight scattered by its icy particles, said Uranus expert Heidi Hammel, executive vice president of the Association of Universities for Research in Astronomy (AURA). The Uranian cloud is probably similar to an anvil cloud, the type of towering cumulonimbus cloud (picture) that's associated with severe thunderstorms on Earth."





Climate Stories...


Biggest Jump Ever Seen In Global Warming Gases. The story from USA Today: "WASHINGTON – The global output of heat-trapping carbon dioxide jumped by the biggest amount on record, the U.S. Department of Energy calculated, a sign of how feeble the world's efforts are at slowing man-made global warming. The new figures for 2010 mean that levels of greenhouse gases are higher than the worst case scenario outlined by climate experts just four years ago. "The more we talk about the need to control emissions, the more they are growing," said John Reilly, co-director of MIT's Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change. The world pumped about 564 million more tons (512 million metric tons) of carbon into the air in 2010 than it did in 2009. That's an increase of 6%. That amount of extra pollution eclipses the individual emissions of all but three countries — China, the United States and India, the world's top producers of greenhouse gases. It is a "monster" increase that is unheard of, said Gregg Marland, a professor of geology at Appalachian State University, who has helped calculate Department of Energy figures in the past."

North Dakota Sues Minnesota Over Anti-Global Warming Measure. Bloomberg News has the story: "Nov. 2 (Bloomberg) -- North Dakota sued Minnesota, claiming the neighboring state’s 2007 law limiting carbon emissions from electricity generated outside Minnesota and used within the state is unconstitutional. “Minnesota’s Next Generation Energy Act has direct and serious consequences for North Dakota,” Attorney General Wayne Stenehjem said today in a press statement announcing his filing with the federal court in St. Paul, Minnesota. North Dakota power plants export most of their generated power to other states, including Minnesota, Stenehjem said. The Minnesota statute unconstitutionally interferes with his state’s energy production, the attorney general said. North Dakota seeks a court order invalidating the measure. Signed by then-Governor Tim Pawlenty in May 2007, the Next Generation act was intended to reduce greenhouse gas emissions while promoting renewable energy sources and greater energy efficiency. “The best time to have taken action on energy issues would’ve been 30 years ago. The second best time is right now,” Pawlenty said then in a press statement." (photo above courtesy of energyresults.com).

* More on the North Dakota lawsuit from legalnewsline.com.

NASA Airborne Mission Maps Remote, Deteriorating Glaciers. Here's a press release from NASA: "PUNTA ARENAS, CHILE – NASA's airborne expedition over Antarctica this October and November has measured the change in glaciers vital to sea level rise projections and mapped others rarely traversed by humans. Operation IceBridge, nearing completion of its third year, is the largest airborne campaign ever flown over the world's polar regions. Bridging a gap between two ice elevation mapping satellites, and breaking new scientific ground on its own, IceBridge this fall has charted the continued rapid acceleration and mass loss of Pine Island Glacier. IceBridge has now generated three years of laser altimetry data over certain locations to continue the record from NASA's Ice Climate and Elevation Satellite (ICESat), which stopped operating in 2009. IceBridge measurements show Pine Island following its rapid deterioration that began around 2006. Combined IceBridge and ICESat data show the glacier is losing more than six times as much mass per year -- mass loss was measured at 7 gigatons a year in 2005 and about 46 gigatons a year in 2010 – making it one of the most significant climate change response trends that scientists see worldwide. For comparison, the Chesapeake Bay holds about 70 gigatons of water."

Photo credit above: "A close-up image of the crack spreading across the ice shelf of Pine Island Glacier shows the details of the boulder-like blocks of ice that fell into the rift when it split. For most of the 18-mile stretch of the crack that NASA’s DC-8 flew over on Oct. 26, 2011, it stretched about 240 feet wide, as roughly seen here. The deepest points ranged from about 165 to 190 feet, roughly equal to the top of the ice shelf down to sea level. Scientists expect the crack to propagate and the ice shelf to calve an iceberg of more than 300 square miles in the coming months. This image was captured by the Digital Mapping System (DMS) aboard the DC-8. Credit: NASA/DMS."

Global Warming To Blame For Extreme Weather: 5 Examples of Bizarre Weather in 2011. The International Business Times has the story: "A report from top climate scientists warns that such extreme weather like heat waves, floods and droughts will continue to trouble the world and disasters could become even more severe in the next few years. The report from the Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change (IPCC) will focus on extreme weather phenomenon that has decimated towns and killed thousands of people around the world. "This is the largest effort that has ever been made to assess how extremes are changing," said Neville Nicholls, a professor at Monash University in Melbourne, Australia, and a coordinating lead author of one of the review's key chapters. The draft summary of the report, obtained by the Associated Press, says that climate extremes have worsened because of man-made greenhouse gases. The report concludes that the frequency and magnitude of hot days will increase over the 21st century. It is very likely that heat waves will continue to increase over most land areas. Peak temperatures are likely to increase to 3.0 degrees Celsius by 2050 and 5.0 C by 2100. Droughts will intensify in parts of the globe like North America, northeastern Brazil and southern Africa."