November 3: Denver Snow Tapers (power still out across much of the northeast)

 

Wednesday was the 65th anniversary of the start of the biggest November snowstorm in Denver`s history, a storm which produced 30.4 inches in three days. - Earth Networks.

5.9" new snow fell on Denver Wednesday. Portions of I-25 and I-80 were closed due to drifting snow and whiteout conditions.

.6" snow reported in Omaha, Nebraska Wednesday.

58.43" precipitation in Cincinnati so far in 2011. The old record was 57.58" in 1990.

Mixed Up Weather Map. New York City and Philadelphia received measurable snow before Anchorage, AK. ANC got 1″ on Oct 30, NYC and Philly got theirs on Oct 29. Amazing but true.

South Florida: October, 2010 was driest on record. October, 2011 was the 4th wettest on record.

Denver: An Early Winter. Thanks To Matt Herrmann from Louisville, Colorado for sending in this photo of a very snowy Denver. Portions of I-25 and I-80 were shut down for a time early Wednesday, due to drifting and near white-out conditions.

Swamped With Snow. That looks like a good 8" of snow out at Aurora, a suburb of Denver. Thanks to Angelina Rodriguez for posting this on the "WeatherNation" Facebook page.

Heavy Snow Blankets The Rockies. A release from NOAA: "The storm system that blanketed Colorado and Wyoming is heading east into the central U.S. today, November 2, 2011. As it does, a wave of low pressure at the surface will develop near the Oklahoma Panhandle and move northeastward. As the low pulls toward the east, heavy snow will come to an end for the Colorado Rockies. Snow will still be possible on the back side of the low pressure system through tonight for areas from the Oklahoma Panhandle into southwest Iowa. As moisture from the Gulf of Mexico feeds into the system a large area of rain is expected to develop across parts of the central U.S. This image was taken by GOES East at 1815Z on November 2, 2011."




Predicted Snowfall. Here is the GFS solution through 1 pm Monday, showing additional snow from Colorado and Wyoming into North Dakota.


Saturday: Windy and Mild. At 7 pm Saturday the NAM model shows an intense area of low pressure northeast of Denver, south/southeast winds howling across the Great Plains, snow limited to the Northern Rockies and western Dakotas. Highs may reach the mid to upper 50s Saturday as far north as the Twin Cities and Milwaukee.


Deer Hunting Firearm Opener. It will look and feel more like late September or early October out there on Saturday, sun fading behind increasing clouds, a stiff southeast wind (15-30 mph) with highs well up into the 50s. 60-degree highs aren't out of the question south of the Minnesota River.


Sunday Morning: Brushed By Showers. We stay on the mild side of the storm track through the first half of the day Sunday, highs reaching the 50s (to near 60 south/east of the Twin Cities). Rain showers are most likely north of the metro area Saturday night and Sunday.

Dry October in Minnesota. Here are some details from the Minnesota State Climatology Office:
- October 2011 was another very dry month throughout Minnesota. This marked the third consecutive month of widespread rainfall shortfalls. In some locales, it was among the driest Octobers of the modern record.

- Significant rainfall shortfalls were reported across Minnesota over the past three and one-half months. When compared with the same fourteen-week period in the historical database, late-summer plus autumn 2011 precipitation totals rank among the lowest on record for numerous southern Minnesota locations.

- The U. S. Drought Monitor depicts nearly every Minnesota county as experiencing some level of drought. Large sections of northeast and north central Minnesota are said to be undergoing Severe Drought or Moderate Drought. The Drought Monitor also places a large portion of southern Minnesota in the Severe Drought or Moderate Drought categories.

October Weather Factoids. Here's some interesting information about October, courtesy of Planalytics:

"From a weather perspective, October had a bit of everything.  In North America, temperatures were above normal, although cooler than last year, helping year-over-year seasonal demand.  Precipitation was also above normal and last year.  The U.S. had its 12th warmest October in 51 years, although still cooler than last year.  Precipitation trended near normal.  Canada had its warmest October since 2007 and wettest since 2006.  Snowfall was notable, particularly in the U.S., highlighted by a late-month storm in the Northeast.  Snowfall across the US was 209% greater than last year and 26% above normal.  Snowfall in Canada was 166% greater than last year and above normal.
Significant Weather Events:

• October began in the U.S. with the warmest first week since 2007 and was wetter than last year, although drier than normal.  In Canada, the first week was the warmest since 2005 with above normal rain.

Feds: Response To Snowstorm Slower Than To Irene. There are a lot of very unhappy people living in the northeast, many still without power, 5 days after a freak October snow blitz. USA Today reports on the response: "HARTFORD, Conn. (AP) – Utility crews have been slower to fix Northeast power outages caused by last weekend's record-setting snowstorm than they were after Hurricane Irene and its remnants because they had less time to prepare, a U.S. Department of Energy official said Tuesday. Bill Bryan, a deputy assistant secretary for the agency, said during a stop in hard-hit Connecticut that he was monitoring the mutual aid response that has sent thousands of extra workers into the region. The freak October snowstorm knocked out power to 3 million homes and businesses from Maryland to Maine. About 1.6 million customers remained without power Tuesday. Bryan says utility companies didn't have time to get additional workers from other regions in place before the snowstorm like they were able to do before Irene in August. The companies had several days to prepare for Irene and only a few days to prepare for the snowstorm, which hit the region harder than was forecast. At midweek last week, some forecasters said the storm was going to miss New England."

States Scramble To Restore Power After Snowstorm. Ironically, Saturday's premature snowy plastering has had a much bigger impact on much of the northeast than Hurricane Irene did back in August, or Tropical Storm Lee in September. CNN reports: "New York (CNN) -- Utility companies in five states scrambled to restore power to more three quarters of million people still in the dark by late Wednesday afternoon after a snowstorm pounded the U.S. Northeast over the weekend. A massive snowfall that started Saturday downed trees and power lines, knocking out electricity to customers in various states, including Connecticut, New York and New Jersey. New Jersey resident Becky Fisher said she moved her family to a neighbor's home after they lost power and temperatures dropped to near freezing. Fisher, along with her husband and their 6-month-old daughter, have camped out at the neighbor's house in Maplewood, New Jersey, since the weekend storm coated her home in snow and knocked down trees and power lines."

Lingering Snowcover. It's been 5 days since 1-2 feet of heavy, wet snow plastered much of the northeast, and there's plenty of snow left on the ground. Here is the latest NASA "Modis" image taken from the low-orbiting "Terra" weather satellite, a little more than 200 miles above the ground.

Snowy Probabilities. The Minnesota State Climate Office just released some updated numbers for MSP. On average the Twin Cities sees 4.5 days every November with a tenth of an inch or more of snow and 1.8 days with 1"+ snow. Click here to see the details. Here's more information (glad to see they're using the term, "plowable" snow!) "Assuming that it is agreed that a two-inch snowfall is "plowable", the Days with Snowfall ... 2.0 inches and greater table below indicates that on average, a "plowable" snowfall occurs in the Twin Cities 7.4 days per season, with a standard deviation (a measure of variability) of 3.43 days. In tandem, these statistics inform users that during most seasons (two-thirds of all seasons), the metropolitan area receives two or more inches of snow between four and eleven times. The table also indicates that decision makers should account for the fact that the Twin Cities has had seasons with as many as 16 days of "plowable" snow, and as few as one day of "plowable" snow."

Storms Slamming Southwest Evoke Dust Bowl. According to NOAA the USA just experienced the hottest summer since 1936, at the height of the Dust Bowl. CBS News has a story on the apparent uptick in extreme weather worldwide: "Top scientists are warning that recent extreme weather patterns could continue well into the future. A draft report obtained Tuesday by The Associated Press says climate change will mean more floods, more heat waves and more droughts. And in bone-dry Texas, that future is now, as CBS News correspondent Anna Werner reports on the dust storms that are swirling in the Lone Star State. Lubbock, Texas hadn't seen anything like it in decades. The dust storm on October 17 stretched more than a mile high, with wind gusts of 75 mph -- hurricane-force. Kevin Watt recorded it on his iPhone. "It came in like a cloud," he said, "but you realize, 'Hey that's dirt.'"

Tornado-Affected Businesses Face Uncertain Future. Alabama's Crimson White has the story: "When an EF4 tornado tore through Tuscaloosa last April, it left businesses, homes and lives destroyed in its wake. Now, six months later, much of the debris has been cleared, but the damage has yet to be repaired. In place of Southern institutions like Hobby Lobby, Full Moon BBQ and Krispy Kreme, there remain bare foundations and scoured patches of earth. Some businesses have gathered the pieces and started rebuilding, while the status of others remains less clear. New construction is somewhat scarce in tornado-affected areas of Tuscaloosa, and affected businesses seem unsure of their future. CVS, which had its building damaged in the tornado, is one business that is slowly recovering. After moving employees to one of six other CVS locations in the Tuscaloosa area, the pharmacy began using a CVS-owned RV, which was last used during Hurricane Katrina, to serve as a temporary location."

FEMA: Be Prepared For Future Disasters. Here's a press release from FEMA with a few useful reminders: "Be prepared for future disasters. Stay informed about weather conditions…including the potential for flooding…and know the risks involved. Purchase and program a National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) weather radio to receive watches and warnings issued by the National Weather Service.  NOAA weather radios range in price from $30 to more than $100, depending on features, and can be purchased at any retail store that sells electronics. Determine the risk and take the necessary precautions. Never drive through water. Take action to reduce potential water damage. Consider flood insurance as well as property insurance against strong winds. Review your insurance coverage with your insurance agent, and update your coverage amounts as necessary. Consider elevating utilities or appliances – even the entire home. Focus on protecting and reinforcing the roof, windows and garage against strong winds. Keeping these in place could lessen overall damage during straight-line winds or a tornado. Install “hurricane straps” – very effective during tornado activity - and shutters.  Consult a building contractor, home improvement store or go to the following websites: www.fema.gov and www.ready.gov. "

6 Months Later: The April, 2011 Tornado and Severe Storm Outbreak. A few highlights from FEMA on what's happened in the last 6 months, since 750 tornadoes touched down in April, the most ever observed in one month in the United States:

• NOAA’s National Weather Service ranks April 2011 as the most active tornado month on record with 750 tornadoes across the U.S. There were a reported 361 fatalities.
• The April 27 “Super Outbreak” spawned four intensely destructive EF-5 and 11 EF-4 tornados across Alabama, Georgia, Kentucky, Mississippi and Tennessee.
• These storms launched an immediate response from the whole community, which included local, state, and federal agencies, voluntary, faith-based and community groups, the private sector and the public.
• Nearly $257 million in federal disaster assistance was distributed to survivors in the form of grants and low-interest recovery loans, as of October 20.
• FEMA obligated nearly $211 million in federal aid to local and state government and non-profit agencies to reimburse costs for public recovery and rebuilding projects such as debris removal and repairs to public facilities.
• FEMA provided more than $254 million in direct Federal assistance through mission assignments to other federal agencies for other essential commodities, emergency work and debris removal.

* tornado photo courtesy of ABC News.

4G Interfering With NWS Doppler? Check out this post from Madweather, focusing on strange radar "spikes" visible in recent days on St. Louis Doppler radar:

"The above is base-scan reflectivity from the NWS radar at LSX (St. Charles/St. Louis, Missouri) - time about 1800 UTC today (Wednesday, November 2nd). I have been noticing these strange, and persistent, clear air returns for a number of days, and asked about them in an e-mail. The LSX Webmaster replied: It is interference on our radar being caused by radio interference from 4G wireless internet towers that are popping up across the metro area. The Radar Operations Center in Norman Oklahoma is working on a filter that will dampen out these spikes. Hopefully they will be able to implement the filter later this year."

T-storms From Space. Check out this remarkable YouTube clip, courtesy of NHK. Astronauts onboard the ISS, the International Space Station, aimed a video camera out a window - things get interesting about 2:20 into the video.

The Best Gadgets - Um - "Productivity Tools". Here is Gizmodo's list. Techno-geek that I am, I'll have my own list a little closer to Christmas: "What gadget should I get?" is a timeless question. To answer it, here's our current leaderboard of favorite gadgets, including smartphones, laptops and cameras—updated with the latest and greatest. We know you don't want to blow that paycheck on merely the shiniest, or the the simply newest. So we've considered a balance of price, features, reliability—and above all, quality—to make sure you're choosing a gadget that isn't just great, but one that's sensible. We've updated our roster of Giz-approved gadgets, and below, you'll find these picks."




Sunny Finale. WeatherNation meteorologist Katie Ferrier snapped this picture of a setting sun Wednesday, a tip-off of a bright, sunny Thursday to come.

Interesting Times

"May you live in interesting times." The last 2 years have been off-the-scale crazy for weather folk. 2010 ties for the hottest year ever, a slow-motion 7-month flood on the Missouri River - Alabama is now America's tornado capital, 2011: hottest summer since the Dust Bowl of '36, record rains from New England to Florida while Texas burns, massive "haboobs" (dust storms) observed from Phoenix to Lubbock. And now the freakish "Snow-tober" storm, unlike anything we've seen since 1800 - possibly the most snow ever so early in the season over the northeast.

Another head-shaking weather factoid: it snowed 1" in New York and Philadelphia before it did in Anchorage, Alaska! Welcome to the Twilight Zone of Meteorology.

Climate Stories...

"Snowtober" Fits U.N. Climate Change Predictions. Here's a timely analysis of not only last Saturday's historic snow event, but 2 years of increasingly crazy weather worldwide, courtesy of the L.A. Times: "While the Northeast is still reeling from a surprise October snowstorm that has left more than a million people without power for days, the United Nations is about to release its latest document on adaptation to climate change. The report from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change is expected conclude that there is a high probability that man-made greenhouse gases already are causing extreme weather that has cost governments, insurers, businesses and individuals billions of dollars. And it is certain to predict that costs due to extreme weather will rise and some areas of the world will become more perilous places to live. Federal climate scientists have labeled 2011 as one of the worst in American history for extreme weather, with punishing blizzards, epic flooding, devastating drought and a heat wave that has broiled a huge swath of the country. Weather related losses amounted to more than $35 billion even before the Nor'easter shellacked the East Coast."

More Weather Disasters Ahead, Climate Experts Report. So far in 2011 record highs have outnumbered record lows by a 3 to 1 margin. NBC News has a good overview on how a warmer (wetter) atmosphere may be a breeding ground for more numerous and extreme weather disasters: "The report from the Nobel Prize-winning Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change will be issued in a few weeks, after a meeting in Uganda. It says there is at least a 2-in-3 probability that climate extremes have already worsened because of man-made greenhouse gases. This marks a change in climate science from focusing on subtle changes in daily average temperatures to concentrating on the harder-to-analyze freak events that grab headlines, cause economic damage and kill people. The most recent bizarre weather extreme, the pre-Halloween snowstorm, is typical of the damage climate scientists warn will occur — but it's not typical of the events they tie to global warming." (video from NBC News, story from AP).

Thailand's Heart Attack. Climate change doesn't trigger specific extreme weather events - but it may raise the odds of record events, according to the L.A. Times: "An obese, middle-aged man is running to catch a bus. Suddenly, he clutches his chest, falls to the ground and dies of a massive heart attack. It turns out that he's a smoker and a diabetic, has high blood pressure, eats a diet high in saturated fat and low in leafy green vegetables, pours salt on everything, drinks too much beer, avoids exercise at all costs and has a father, grandfather and two uncles who also died young of heart attacks. So what killed him? Most people are savvy enough about health risks to know this is a trick question. You can't pick out a single cause. His choices and his genes all contributed to the heart attack — but you can say with confidence that the more risk factors that pile up, the more likely it is to end badly. Somehow, though, people think that it makes sense to ask whether a given extreme weather event — a devastating heat wave or a punishing drought or a deadly torrential rainstorm — is caused by climate change."

Climate Change Bulks Up Birds. Discovery News has the unlikely story: "Big birds are gaining more than attention on Sesame Street. Birds in central California have been growing larger for several decades. Researchers think climate change may be bulking up the birds, while other studies suggest some animals and plants are shrinking in a warming world. Researchers from San Francisco State University and other institutions noticed the feathered-friend trend while analyzing data from thousands of birds caught and released over the years at two sites near San Francisco Bay and the Point Reyes National Seashore. The birds increased in mass and their wings grew longer over the past 27 to 40 years. "The fingerprint of climate change is showing up in many of our ecosystems," said Nat Seavy, of Point Reyes Bird Observatory Conservation Science, another organization involved in the research, in a press release."

November 2: Denver Blizzard (more evidence that America's weather is becoming more extreme)

Back To Standard Time. We come off daylight saving time this weekend. Don't forget to "fall back" one hour before turning in Saturday night. An extra hour of sleep! Newstaar Media has more on why we even mess with daylight saving time and standard time here.


November is Denver's second snowiest month, on average, with 8.7" snow (1981-2010). 

"The forecast for this storm is roughly 4 to 10 inches, which is the entire month’s average snowfall. In addition, just another tid bit of trivia…the biggest snowstorm in Denver was Nov. 2-4, 1946 (today marks the 65^th anniversary)  where 30.4 inches fell. More on November weather from the Denver NWS office here."



22" rain fell on Vero Beach, Florida in October, second greatest monthly amount on record (second only to 2004, when Hurricane Frances and Jeanne hit in the month of October).



"Weather Underground meteorology director Jeff Masters....said in the United States from June to August this year, blistering heat set 2,703 daily high temperature records, compared with only 300 cold records during that period, making it the hottest summer in the U.S. since the Dust Bowl of 1936." - AP article below on apparent global increase in extreme weather events.

Northeast Reels From Third Weather Disaster In 3 Months. From USA Today: "While people from West Virginia to Maine huddled in the cold Monday, state officials and utility workers were struggling with the third strike of disasters in three months. A rare October snowstorm this weekend slammed areas that were hit hard by flooding after Hurricane Irene in August and Tropical Storm Lee in September. The snowstorm, coming on the heels of those two storms and an earthquake, topped "a challenging year, because Mother Nature threw a lot of things our way," said Dennis Buterbaugh, a spokesman for the Pennsylvania Department of Transportation. "It's certainly a lot of work and a lot of extra expenditure." At least 21 deaths were blamed on the storm, including eight in Pennsylvania and one in Canada. Most were from falling trees and traffic accidents. More than 3 million customers lost power in the Northeast, and by Monday night, that number was down to 2.2 million."


La Nina Is Back. We've been talking about this for a couple months now. A cooling trend in the equatorial Pacific (although not as strong as last winter) may still favor colder, drier weather for the Upper Midwest, dry weather for the southern USA and a bias toward big storms tracking up the east coast of the USA. The story from NOAA: “A sea surface anomaly, or departure from the average temperature, is calculated by subtracting the temperatures from a time period of interest from the 30-year average (1981-2010) for the same time period. The resulting data shows areas that are hotter or colder than normal. Sea surface temperature anomaly data allow scientists to quickly identify features of interest, especially for El Niño/La Niña, coastal upwelling, and hurricane intensification. The strengthening La Niña in the Pacific Ocean brings with it a host of possible trends as outlined by the NOAA Climate Prediction Center’s Seasonal Outlook released October 20, 2011. These trends include lower than normal precipitation for the southwest and southern Great Plains and Mississippi Valley. Below normal temperatures are favored for southern sections of the Florida peninsula, northern Great Plains and northern Rockies. Trends favor modest warmer than normal conditions for much of the east."



Wednesday White-Out? Winter Storm Warnings are posted for Denver, with Blizzard Warnings in effect just south/east of the Mile High City for near-zero visibility. Hundreds of flights into KDIA may be delayed or cancelled today, with 5-10" snow for downtown Denver, more east of the I-25 corridor. Click here for storm updates from the Denver NWS.



Blizzard Warnings. NOAA has issued blizzard warnings from the southern/eastern suburbs of Denver into northwest Kansas for white-out conditions - winter storm watches as close as central Nebraska. Click here for the latest watches and warnings.



Predicted Snowfall. The NAM model is hinting at over a foot near Denver, with some 3-6"+ amounts into Nebraska and southwestern Iowa.


Weekend: Western Storm Track. The weather map late Saturday shows an intense storm over Nebraska, tracking almost due north - keeping us on the warm, eastern side of the storm track. That should mean 50s Saturday, even an outside shot at 60 degrees, followed by a cooler wind on Sunday - rain ending as snow showers/flurries over far northern Minnesota. This may be one of the warmer Deer Hunting Firearm Openers in recent memory.

In Flooded Bangkok, Shades Of Hurricane Katrina. One factor that contributed to extreme flooding in New Orleans (and Bangkok): overdevelopment. Paving over swamps and suburbs with parking lots and corporate office parks meant rainwater had less of a chance to drain properly and naturally - the potential for historic flooding increases when water is forced to run off into streets, sewars and rivers. Globalpost.com has the story: "BANGKOK, Thailand — Sacrificial neighborhoods, overtaxed infrastructure and political infighting. Though far less chaotic and fatal than Hurricane Katrina, Bangkok’s flooding woes share similarities with the 2005 disaster that nearly destroyed New Orleans. Bangkok and New Orleans, both founded in the 18th century, are low-lying port cities built in natural floodplains. As they developed, both cities lost protective marshlands and forests to concrete sprawl and deforestation, leaving residents more vulnerable to floodwaters. Greater Bangkok’s crisis and Hurricane Katrina are not equal in scope: the Thai floods’ rising death tool is at 380 and Katrina killed more than 1,800. A sudden and ferocious hurricane wrought New Orleans’ flooding; Thailand has suffered the agonizing build-up of waters brought by a 25 percent increase in average seasonal rainfall."

Thailand Flood Defenses Divide Bangkok. The Christian Science Monitor has the details: "An uneasy calm prevailed today along the Sam Wa canal in northern Bangkok after Thailand's government acquiesced to angry locals who wanted to hack a 1-yard-wide opening in a sluice gate along the canal. The hole will allow their flooded suburbs to drain – but threaten flooding in the heart of the city. For more than two months Thailand has been inundated with the worst flooding the country has seen in decades, in some places deeper than five feet. Almost 400 people have been killed and hundreds of thousands of others displaced. Bangkok, the economic hub of the country, has been relatively spared from massive flooding, protected by a system of barricades and canals. However, partly because of the barricades, the water inundating the suburbs surrounding the city hasn't been able to properly drain, frustrating residents and forcing a debate on the ethics of protecting the canal-lined heart of Bangkok at the expense of the suburbs."

Will A New Weather Satellite Change The Way Weather Is Predicted? Here's a fascinating article from the Alaska Dispatch: "A prototype for a new generation of weather satellites successfully launched from Vandenberg Air Force Base in California in the predawn hours Friday morning. The $1.5 billion, SUV-sized craft carries five instruments that will monitor 30 features in the atmosphere, on land, and in the ocean that affect daily and seasonal weather patterns, as well as long-term climate behavior. Known by its acronym NPP, the 2.3-ton craft is designed to orbit Earth around its poles 14 times a day to provide its measurements in virtually unprecedented detail. Four of the five instrument packages aboard the craft are traveling to space for the first time, although prior craft have carried hardware that has measured similar climate parameters. The craft is unique in that it is the first satellite designed to satisfy the needs of weather forecasters and climate researchers simultaneously, project officials say. "NPP will help improve weather forecasts, enable unique scientific insights, and allow more-accurate environmental predictions," says Michael Freilich, who heads the Earth Science Division at the National Aeronautics and Space Administration."

A Storm Out Of Season. Here's an Op-Ed on last Saturday's historic snowstorm across the northeast from the New York Times: "It sounds like the pitch for a Tim Burton movie: White Halloween. But Saturday night and Sunday morning were more frightful than amusing. The astonishing snowstorm that swept across the region left millions without power. Everywhere from West Virginia to New Hampshire, the landscape was a chaos of downed limbs, felled trees and snapped utility lines. Monday began in many places without school and electricity; in some, it looked as though even Halloween might be put on hold until the cleanup was further along. At higher elevations farther north, where the snowfall was deep but relatively dry, the damage was not severe. And there was a peacefulness in the sudden, temporary halt to autumn’s bustle. Farther south, there was less snow, but it was wetter, heavier and far more destructive, especially because it fell on trees that were not yet bare. Where the damage was worst, it looked as though autumnal trees had shed their branches instead of their leaves."


Sunrise. “Picturesque sunrise this morning thanks to some altocumulus clouds about 15,000 ft above the desert. Photo taken from NWS San Diego in Rancho Bernardo.”

Outlook: More Extremes

Shell-shocked residents of the Northeast must be wondering what's next? Hurricane Irene in August, Tropical Storm Lee in September, an earthquake, and now the historic "Snowtober" storm. We can't find a comparable October snowfall going back to 1804.

This slushy misery comes on the heels of the most extreme year in U.S. history: a record 10 separate billion dollar events in 2011. Dr. Jeff Masters at Weather Underground reports the U.S. just experienced the hottest summer since the Dust Bowl of 1936; 2,703 daily high temperature records, compared to only 300 low temperature records. One summer doesn't prove anything, but a warmer atmosphere can hold more water vapor, loading the dice in favor of more floods (and record winter season snows).

Blizzard warnings are posted near Denver, some 6-12" amounts likely, with wet snow as close as Iowa tomorrow.

Climate Stories...



Muller: Why You Should Not Be A Global Warming Skeptic. By now you're heard the story, a climate change skeptic who employed a team to try and do a better job analyzing global data (filtering out warming from cities). The result: he confirmed what IPCC, NOAA and NASA scientists (and every other major scientific association on Earth) has been saying for 20 years: the atmosphere is warming, and we are probably largely responsible for this spike. More from Technorati:  "On October 21, Dr. Richard Muller published an article in the Wall Street Journal (WSJ) presenting the results of a two-year exhaustive study of the world temperature records using multiple methods to verify the data. The verdict, global warming is real and the skeptics are wrong. This was news because Dr. Muller, a physics professor at the University of California, Berkeley, has been one of the 'legitimate scientists' that skeptics have relied on to support their position that global warming is a myth. This startling announcement was largely ignored by the news media until Jon Stewart had a field day with the announcement on his October 26 episode of The Daily Show with Jon Stewart. Since airing, several other news media outlets have picked up the story, including MSNBC and The Huffington Post."


Wild Weather Will Get Wilder, Says Global Warming Panel. Here's a good recap from the New York Daily News. New York saw the snowiest January on record (3 huge storms) and the wettest August ever recorded. Here's an excerpt from the article: "The report, obtained by the Associated Press and AFP, says weather costs will rise and some locations may become “increasingly marginal as places to live.” The scientists said they were a 99% certain that temperature extremes will keep increasing and called it “likely” that peak temperatures will rise 5.4 degrees F by 2050, and 9 degrees F by 2100. Three years in the making, the report comes in a year of unprecedented weather extremes and a record-breaking 10 multi-billion-dollar weather disasters, from February’s mega-blizzard to Hurricane Irene to the record-smashing tornado swarms in Midwest and Southeast. “It think that this year's weather extremes are a sign that climate change is starting to effect our weather,” said Weather Underground meteorologist Jeff Masters. “When you get a naturally extreme year combined with climate change putting more energy into the atmosphere, you're going to get an incredible year like this one.”

Thailand Flood Misery Continues As Scientists Say Climate Change Is Causing More Weather Extremes. This entry from MSNBC.com: "Residents walk along a major flooded intersection in the Thonburi area of Bangkok, Thailand, on October 31. Thousands of flood victims have been forced to take shelter at crowded evacuation centers around the capital. Thailand is experiencing the worst flooding in over 50 years which has affected more than nine million people.
The AP reports:

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change says that extreme weather disasters like the recent record floods in Thailand are striking more often, according to a draft summary of a report obtained by The Associated Press. It says there is at least a 2-in-3 probability that climate extremes have already worsened because of man-made greenhouse gases. Read the full story."

Photo credit above: Paula Bronstein / Getty Images

Panel Says Wild Weather Worsens. Here's a timely article from the Associated Press: "WASHINGTON (AP) — Freakish weather disasters — from the sudden October snowstorm in the Northeast U.S. to the record floods in Thailand — are striking more often. And global warming is likely to spawn more similar weather extremes at a huge cost, says a draft summary of an international climate report obtained by The Associated Press. The final draft of the report from a panel of the world's top climate scientists paints a wild future for a world already weary of weather catastrophes costing billions of dollars. The report says costs will rise and perhaps some locations will become "increasingly marginal as places to live." The report from the Nobel Prize-winning Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change will be issued in a few weeks, after a meeting in Uganda. It says there is at least a 2-in-3 probability that climate extremes have already worsened because of man-made greenhouse gases. This marks a change in climate science from focusing on subtle changes in daily average temperatures to concentrating on the harder-to-analyze freak events that grab headlines, cause economic damage and kill people. The most recent bizarre weather extreme, the pre-Halloween snowstorm, is typical of the damage climate scientists warn will occur — but it's not typical of the events they tie to global warming. "The extremes are a really noticeable aspect of climate change," said Jerry Meehl, senior scientist at the National Center for Atmospheric Research. "I think people realize that the extremes are where we are going to see a lot of the impacts of climate change." (photo above courtesy of sacbee.com).

Climate Change Linked To Wild Weather. Another perspective on the soon-to-be-released study from the IPCC, this time from the Sydney Morning Herald: "A draft UN report three years in the making concludes that man-made climate change has boosted the frequency or intensity of heat waves, wildfires, floods and cyclones and that such disasters are likely to increase in the future. The document being discussed by the world's Nobel-winning panel of climate scientists says the severity of the impacts vary, and some regions are more vulnerable than others. Hundreds of scientists working under the Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change (IPCC) will vet the phonebook-sized draft at a meeting in Kampala of the 194-nation body later this month. "This is the largest effort that has even been made to assess how extremes are changing," said Neville Nicholls, a professor at Monash University in Melbourne, Australia, and a coordinating lead author of one of the review's key chapters."

Trees Not Adapting Well To Climate Change. The story from UPI: "DURHAM, N.C., Oct. 31 (UPI) -- More than half of tree species in eastern U.S. forests aren't adapting to climate change as quickly or consistently as predicted, researchers said. Nearly 59 percent of the species examined in a study by Duke University researchers showed signs that their geographic ranges are contracting from both the north and south, a Duke release said Monday. "Many models have suggested that trees will migrate rapidly to higher latitudes and elevations in response to warming temperatures, but evidence for a consistent, climate-driven northward migration is essentially absent in this large analysis," James S. Clark, a professor of environment, said. Fewer species -- only about 21 percent -- appeared to be shifting northward than predicted, the researchers said. "Warm zones have shifted northward by up to 100 kilometers (62 miles) in some parts of the eastern United States, but our results do not inspire confidence that tree populations are tracking those changes," Clark said." (Photo above courtesy of treehugger.com).

 

Forests Not Adapting To Climate Change. Another look at the Duke study from zeenews.com: "Washington: More than half of eastern US tree species aren’t adapting to climate change as quickly or consistently as predicted, according to a new Duke University-led study. “Many models have suggested that trees will migrate rapidly to highelatitudes and elevations in response to warming temperatures, but evidence for a consistent, climate-driven northward migration is essentially absent in this large analysis,” said James S. Clark, H.L. Blomquist Professor of Environment at Duke’s Nicholas School of the Environment.  Nearly 59 percent of the species examined by Clark and his colleagues showed signs that their geographic ranges are contracting from both the north and south. Fewer species - only about 21 percent - appeared to be shifting northward as predicted." (photo courtesy of sciencedaily.com).

 

 

Ignorant And Proud. A story from Media Matters: "By any reasonable measure, last week was not a good one for conservative media figures that believe climate scientists are somehow fabricating the theory of climate change.  Richard Muller, a physicist at University of California, Berkeley, announced the results of new research from the Berkeley Earth Surface Temperature Project affirming that the planet is getting warmer and confirming the accuracy of several other existing global temperature records. As the Associated Press explains, while the findings are "no different from what mainstream climate scientists have been saying for decades," what's especially notable about Muller's findings is "who is behind the study": One-quarter of the $600,000 to do the research came from the Charles Koch Foundation, whose founder is a major funder of skeptic groups and the tea party. The Koch brothers, Charles and David, run a large privately held company involved in oil and other industries, producing sizable greenhouse gas emissions. A study funded in part by oil industry interests finds that the planet is getting warmer and that climate scientists have "truly been very careful in their work, despite their inability to convince some skeptics of that" -- this seems like the kind of thing that should give pause to people that refuse to accept data from supposedly biased sources like NASA."

Wingnut Watch: October Snow Ends Climate Change Debate. More on the "heavy October snow means climate change is bunk" line of thought, from Media Matters and The Rolling Stone: Via Media Matters: "It's snowing in October – so, sorry, that pretty much sews up the case against climate change. How could the planet be warming if it's getting colder? Thus, the logic of Fox News Eric Bolling, who tweeted as follows on Saturday, as snowflakes blanketed the Northeast: "Hey, Al Gore ... earliest snowfall in NYC since the Civil War ... where's your global warming now, see?" Bolling followed this up with a segment on his Fox Business show gleefully citing the snowstorm as evidence that climate change is bogus. There's a lot to be said about this, but let me just quote Andrew Freedman over at the Washington Post, who writes: "Snowtober” occurred during a year in which the U.S. has already suffered a record number of billion dollar weather disasters, including Irene; spring flooding along the Mississippi River, and the ongoing Texas drought. Scientific evidence continues to mount that certain types of extreme weather events, including heavy precipitation events (both heavy rain and snow) are becoming more common and severe due to global warming."