October 4: 80s North, Snow for California, West Virginia (more records fall)

83 F. high in the Twin Cities on Monday. Average high for October 3 is 64.
11 hours, 39 minutes of daylight on Monday. Minneapolis/St. Paul has lost nearly 4 hours of daylight since June 21, which makes 80s in early October all that much more impressive.
86 F. in 1912: Wednesday all-time high temperature record in the Twin Cities (in danger of being broken).


What Month Is This Again? Believe it or not, the warmest weather may still be ahead of us. Models are hinting at mid 80s on Wednesday, even some upper 80s close to home. Not too shabby, considering the sun angle is equivalent to the first week of March.

* Houston, Texas has had 139 days at 90 degrees or higher so far this year. That’s more than half the days from Jan 1 to October 3, 2011.  (We are now 276 days into 2011).

* Houston has also had 46 days so far this year at 100 or higher.

* The Phoenix monsoon season wrapped up with the end of September. It was the warmest on record in Phoenix, and one of the warmest in Yuma. It was also drier than normal, with 1.6″ of precipitation recorded.

* 13.32" rain at Baltimore, a new September rainfall record. The old record was 12.41" in 1934.


"...A hole that developed in the Earth's protective ozone layer over the Arctic this year was the largest ever recorded in the Northern Hemisphere and spread over parts of northern Russia, Greenland and Norway, the journal Nature reports. For the first time, the hole was comparable to one that appears regularly over the Antarctic, researchers found." (graphic above courtesy of NASA).

- from a USA Today article below.


Chemical Fire From Space. The black smoke billowing from a chemical fire just south of Dallas was so massive that it showed up on satellite images - this one taken by NASA's low-orbiting "MODIS" Terra satellite, about 220 miles above the ground.

THE 2-DAY AVERAGE MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE IN WASHINGTON DC FOR THE
SAME PERIOD WAS 56.5 DEGREES…WHICH NOW RANKS AS THE COOLEST 2
DAY START IN OCTOBER. THIS SURPASSES THE PREVIOUS COOLEST OCTOBER
2-DAY START OF 57.5 DEGREES SET IN 1940. THE NORMAL AVERAGE HIGH
TEMPERATURE FOR OCTOBER 1ST AND 2ND IN WASHINGTON IS 73.5 DEGREES.

...RECORD PRECIPITATION AT BINGHAMTON NY...

PRECIPITATION AT THE BINGHAMTON REGIONAL AIRPORT IN NEW YORK NOW

STANDS AT 57.85 INCHES FOR THE YEAR UP TO AND INCLUDING OCTOBER 1ST.

THIS IS THE WETTEST YEAR ON RECORD. THE PREVIOUS RECORD WAS 49.78

INCHES IN 2006.

...WETTEST SEPTEMBER ON RECORD AT BALTIMORE MD...

 A RECORD MONTHLY RAINFALL OF 13.32 INCHES WAS SET FOR SEPTEMBER AT

BALTIMORE IN 2011. THIS BREAKS THE OLD SEPTEMBER RECORD OF 12.41 SET

IN 1934.

From Green To Brown. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet has a couple of satellite photos that show the progression of the seasons, the transition from greens to (mostly) browns: "Clear skies overhead this weekend give satellites a great look at the ground to show what has happened to our landscape over the past month. The featured image is of Aqua MODIS true color imagery from 6 September and 1 October of this year. Our lush green landscape has been replaced by the brown shades of fall. This color change is important as it changes the albedo of the surface allowing warming to occur more rapidly. This change will be in effect this week with mostly clear skies expected to push temperatures to near 80."

Skiers Are Happy. This photo was taken at the Snowshoe Ski Resort in West Virginia, where a whopping 9" of snow has fallen.

********************STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL********************

LOCATION          STORM TOTAL    TIME/DATE    COMMENTS
                     SNOWFALL       OF
                     (INCHES)   MEASUREMENT

PENNSYLVANIA

...BLAIR COUNTY...
   ALTOONA                  T    610 AM    10/2   NWS EMPLOYEE

...CAMBRIA COUNTY...
   EBENSBURG               1.0   730 AM    10/2   WEBCAM
   WESTMONT                 T    730 AM    10/3   COCORAHS
   BELMONT                  T    730 AM    10/2   COCORAHS
   PRINCE GALLITZIN SP      T    700 AM    10/2   COOP

...CENTRE COUNTY...
   PHILIPSBURG             1.2   700 AM    10/2   COOP
   STATE COLLEGE            T    630 AM    10/2   NWS EMPLOYEE

...ELK COUNTY...
   SAINT MARYS 2 SE         T    700 AM    10/3   COCORAHS
   RIDGWAY                  T    700 AM    10/2   COOP

...MCKEAN COUNTY...
   KANE                     T    700 AM    10/2   COOP

...SOMERSET COUNTY...
   LAUREL SUMMIT: 2.2" SNOW
   SOMERSET                 T    800 AM    10/2   COOP

Huge Waves Stir Up Silt, Sediment, Over Southern Lake Michigan. Last week's Alberta Clipper whipped up 50-65 mph winds over the Great Lakes, resulting in wild winds that stirred up Lake Michigan. More from the Chicago NWS: "The intense northerly winds that blew though the Great Lakes region late last week, caused the silt in the southern portion of Lake Michigan to become churned up, increasing the lake turbidity to extremely high levels. The Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) instrument on NASA's Terra polar orbiting satellite captured this high resolution image over Lake Michigan around noon on Sunday, October 2, 2011. Note how the "muddy" waters get caught in the currents moving through the lake."



Nothing Worse Than "Crap Damage". Enough said.

Avoid Orlando Until Further Notice. Now that it’s officially Fall, meteorologists are forecasting cooler temperatures — much cooler, according to a weather graphic on WKMG in Orlando. During the 11:30 p.m. newscast on Saturday night, meteorologist Elizabeth Hart used this weather graphic (pictured, right), which lists the low temperature next Saturday as 5 degrees, twice. “Apparently, Saturday it’s going to be 5,” anchor Eric von Ancken said with a laugh at the end of the newscast. “We’ll have to fix that for the morning.” (story courtesy of mediabistro.com).

Best Week of Autumn!

I know, meteorologists should be impartial: no such thing as good weather or bad weather. Any day you can drag yourself to the window and look out is a "good day". Right. I just can't help myself. The next few days will be a poem, an amazing symphony of elements - nature in perfect harmony. Cue the ripening leaves, neon-blue sky, crisp humidity and...80s? This is typical weather for the first or second week of August, not early October. Impressive, considering the sun will be as high in the sky today as it was back on March 5. We'll be 5-8 degrees away from all-time records through the end of this week, what will probably wind up being the most spectacular week of autumn from the Twin Cities and Chicago to St. Louis and Kansas City. Meanwhile 5"+ snows have smacked the mountains of West Virginia, and over a foot of new snow may plaster the Sierra Nevada range of California as a major Pacific storm swirls ashore. BTW, the northeast will FINALLY start to dry out - Indian Summer returns by Thursday and Friday - some 70s are on the way. Patience.

Why the taste of late summer? An "Omega Block" (storms stalled on either coast, a warm, bloated ridge of high pressure stalled over the Plains) is responsible for a fantastic holding pattern over the nation's midsection. Yes, if you squint and close one eye - the upper level wind pattern vaguely resembles the Greek letter "omega". Can you tell I'm bored?

No pity, please. My fat feet are propped up on my (unplugged) Doppler radar... camera in hand...one last chance to antagonize neighbors by strutting around in my shorts. Woo hoo!

Climate Stories...

"Nature" Reports Largest Ozone Hole Ever In North America. The story from USA Today: "A hole that developed in the Earth's protective ozone layer over the Arctic this year was the largest ever recorded in the Northern Hemisphere and spread over parts of northern Russia, Greenland and Norway, the journal Nature reports. For the first time, the hole was comparable to one that appears regularly over the Antarctic, researchers found. The ozone layer in the upper stratosphere provides a shield against UV radiation from the sun that can cause skin cancer and cataracts. Authors of the report, released today, show that the hole opened over northern Russia, parts of Greenland, and Norway in March, subjecting people there to high levels of the UV radiation. As reported by The Guardian, the researchers found that the unsually large hole was not due to man-made causes, rather to unusually strong wind patterns at high altitudes and intense cold."

"Ozone Hole". Image credit: "A NASA image shows an ozone hole five times the size of California which opened over the Arctic this (Northern hemisphere) spring that has opened over the Artic. [The red colors represent large ozone concentrations.] Photo: AFP/NASA/JPL" The Sydney Morning Herald has much more information here.

"Unprecedented" Ozone Hole Opens Over Canadian Arctic. Another angle to the ozone depletion story, this time from Canada's National Post: "A massive Arctic ozone hole opened up over the Northern Hemisphere for the first time this year, an international research team reported Sunday. The hole covered two million square kilometres — about twice the size of Ontario — and allowed high levels of harmful ultraviolet radiation to hit large swaths of northern Canada, Europe and Russia this spring, the 29 scientists say. The discovery of the “unprecedented” hole comes as the Canadian government is moving to cut its ozone monitoring network. Environment Canada scientist David Tarasick, whose team played a key role in the report published Sunday in the journal Nature, is not being allowed to discuss the discovery with the media. Environment Canada told Postmedia News that an interview with Tarasick “cannot be granted.” Tarasick is one of several Environment Canada ozone scientists who have received letters warning of possible “discontinuance of job function” as part of the downsizing underway in the department. In Sunday’s report Tarasick and his colleagues say the “chemical ozone destruction over the Arctic in early 2011 was — for the first time in the observation record — comparable to that in the Antarctic ozone hole.”

Global Temps. Spiking Faster Than Nature Can Adapt. Here's an article from Catholic Online: "Although some people still refuse to accept it, global warming is a fact. All national science academies of all the major industrialized nations of the world unanimously agree that global warming is taking place. What is still subject to debate is just how much are humans contributing to the problem and how much of it is simply being caused by nature. And more importantly, what should we do about it? LOS ANGELES, CA (Catholic Online) - Earth's temperature has fluctuated dramatically over millions of years and there have been times when the average global temperature has been much higher or much lower than it is today. Scientists know that some of the warming and cooling process is entirely natural. However they have noticed a sharper than normal increase in global temperatures over the past century, and they believe unequivocally that this is the result of human activity. Sharp changes in temperature are especially worrisome because organisms cannot rapidly adapt to such quick changes. Historically climate change has been a very gradual process, but this time it's occurring faster than on any other occasion in history. Evidence for climate change isn't simply found in temperature readings. Humans can easily handle a couple degrees of temperature change one way or another. However the environment cannot, without time (at least hundreds of years) to adjust. Scientists are blaming global warming for mass die offs of plant and animal life around the world."


Global Warming Causes Faster Melting Of Canadian Ice Shelves. Empowerednews.com has the details: "Toronto – The 2 ice shelves that already existed before Europeans settled in Canada was seen to be already diminished as of this summer. One of the 2 ice shelves was almost completely disappearing, as confirmed by Canadian scientists. The loss signifies the worsening of global warming. The Canadian Arctic is so different few years ago as compared now, scientists added. Icebergs floating in the ocean that were already broken free might just pose risk to shipping lines and offshore oil facilities in the area.  The breaking of ice shelves into smaller pieces also affects the environment for microbial life. It will also affect Canada’s coastline."

October 3: Major Western Storm (Indian Summer Spreads East)

 

One Remarkable Week. The calendar on the wall insists that it's October. As far as the atmosphere is concerned it will feel like late August out there the next 3-4 days from the Plains into the Great Lakes, 70s reaching the east coast by the end of the week, afternoon temperatures running 10-20+ degrees above average. Not bad considering the sun is as high in the sky as it was in early March.


Fire Information Report for Pagami Creek
Wildland Fire Incident
Report Date: 02-OCT-11

---

Burnt Area:	92,682 Acres
Location:	Lake County, MN (13 miles east of Ely, MN, mostly in the Boundary Waters Canoe Area Wilderness)
Cause:	Lightning
Incident Team Type:	IMT Type 1
Team Leader:	Doug Turman
Containment Status:	70% contained)
Expected Containment:	Unknown

200 Day Flood. The flooding on Missouri River is nearing an endpoint as the flood warning that was in effect for the St. Joseph, MO area has expired. A river flood warning remains in effect for the Rulo, NE area through Sunday when the river is expected to fall below flood stage. Once all warnings have expired, this will mark the first time the lower portions of the Missouri River will be warning-free in nearly 200 days. (photo courtesy of the Des Moines Register).

This Week: More Like Late August. The midweek 500 mb wind forecast (18,000 feet above the ground) shows an Omega Block, temporarily stalled storms over the west and New England/Canadian Maritimes, with a vast bubble of high pressure sandwiched in-between over the central USA. If you squint and use your imagination the upper level pattern looks vaguely similar to the Greek letter "omega". Or not. Exepct more 80s for the Twin Cities, Chicago, St. Louis and much of the nation's midsection. Map above is valid 1 pm on Wednesday.

4" snow on the ground at Snoeshoe Mountain Ski Resort, West Virginia Sunday morning.

Sunday Snow In Pennsylvania. The same Alberta Clipper that whipped up 50-60 mph wind gusts from the Twin Cities to Chicago late last week has stalled over the Mid Atlantic region, temperatures aloft just cold enough for a changeover to snow over the highest terrain of West Virginia and Pennsylvania: "Snow is falling this morning in Pennsylvania and sticking in some spots (Route 22). Snow totals reported as of 7:30 AM Sunday 10-2-11:

• 1″ in Phillipsburg, PA
• 0.7″ in Laurel Summit, PA

A tweet: Not something you see every year on October 2nd: KJST 1/4SM +SN (1/4 mile visibility in heavy snow at Johnstown PA; elevation 2284′)"

First Snowball Fight Of Winter? This YouTube video clip from Snowshoe Mountain (West Virginia) was taken Saturday afternoon, during moderate to heavy snow - coming about 2-3 weeks ahead of schedule.

Sunday's Record Lows:

Austin, TX 47
Augusta, GA 40
Jackson, KY 38
Alma, FL 44
Gainsville, FL 46 
Melbourne, FL 58 
Daytona Beach, FL 56
Lakeland, FL 55 
N. Myrtle Beach, FL 46 
Dayton, OH 49

Saturday's Record Highs:

• Miles City, MT – 95° (Previous 94 in 2005)
• Billings, MT – 91 (Previous 90° in 1992)
• Lewiston, MT – 90° (Previous 89° in 1957)
• Stanford, MT – 90° (Previous 87° in 1992)

Foul East And West - Perfect Central USA. An "Omega Block" will create cold storms on either coast, heavy rain for New England, and a mix of rain and snow out west. A foot or more of snow is possible for the mountains of the Pacific Northwest and the Sierra Nevada range of California. QPF map courtesy of NOAA.

This Week: August Rerun. 70s and 80s during the first week of October? Not bad at all. One more opportunity to wear shorts and fiddle with your A/C. Forecast through October 12 courtesy of NOAA's CPC, the Climate Prediction Center.

A Warming Trend. Prevailing jet stream winds will favor cool/stormy out west, with significantly warmer than average temperatures predicted for the Upper Midwest, Great Lakes and New England into mid October.

October Outlook. I agree with CPC - October should wind up a few degrees warmer than average for much of the nation's midsection, especially the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes. Beyond late October the old crystal ball gets a little murky...


Fall 2011 Precipitation Outlook For U.S. Here is the latest from NOAA's ClimateWatch magazine: "After enduring months of drought and baking summer heat, residents of the Southwest and Southern Plains will hardly be excited about the fall 2011 temperature and precipitation outlooks. The precipitation outlook for September–November 2011 from NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center indicates an increased probability for significantly below normal precipitation across half of Arizona, all of New Mexico, and most of Texas. (“Significantly below normal” means “within the bottom third” of observed precipitation for an area in a particular season.) The map above shows NOAA’s precipitation outlook for September-November 2011. Blue-green shaded areas are places where precipitation is likely to be significantly above normal, while yellow areas are places likely to experience significantly below-normal precipitation. Moving from the outer edge of the shaded area to the interior, percentages indicate increasing probability of the predicted pattern."


Drought Baking The Southern USA. Here's an overview of one of the worst droughts in U.S. history, courtesy of NOAA: "An intense drought has gripped the southern tier of the United States for several months, accompanied by destructive wildfires, low water supplies, and failed crops. Dry conditions emerged as early as October of last year and culminated in one of the driest winter and spring seasons in the observed record for the region. At the peak of this year’s drought in July, “exceptional” drought conditions were spread across nearly 12 percent of the U.S., from Arizona to Florida, reaching the highest recorded level of drought since the US Drought Monitor began reporting conditions 12 years ago. As of August 31, just over 11 percent of the contiguous United States was experiencing exceptional drought. (Related image: July 2011 drought map.) Texas and Oklahoma have been particularly hard hit. According to John Nielsen-Gammon, Texas State Climatologist, the state is officially in the midst of its most severe one-year drought on record. Some areas in the extreme west, south and southeast areas of the state have seen some relief from recent rains, but other locations are so dry that it would take as much as 20 inches of rain in one month to bring conditions back to normal."

Photo credit above: "Brazos River runs dry in Knox County, Texas, in summer 2011. By Earl Nottingham, © Texas Parks & Wildlife Department."


Typhoon Nalgae. Here is a post from NASA's Earth Observatory on "Nalgae", before it hit the Philippines, the second typhoon strike there in less than 1 week: "Typhoon Nalgae, known in the Philippines as Quiel, was headed for the archipelago on September 30, 2011. Residents braced for winds and floods in the wake of Typhoon Nesat, which passed over the same region days earlier. The Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) on NASA’s Terra satellite captured this natural-color image of Nalgae, just east of the Philippines, on September 30, 2011. On September 30, the U.S. Navy’s Joint Typhoon Warning Center reported that Nalgae had maximum sustained winds of 115 knots (210 kilometers per hour) and gusts up to 140 knots (260 kilometers per hour). Located roughly 320 nautical miles (590 kilometers) northeast of Manila, the storm was moving west. On September 30, Agence France-Presse reported that Typhoon Nesat, which preceded Nalgae, had already killed 43 people and left 30 more missing, while forcing 160,000 residents into state-run evacuation camps. As Nalgae approached, The Manila Bulletin reported that authorities advised residents of low-lying and mountainous areas to watch out for potential floods and landslides."

Caffeinated Women May Be Fighting Depression With Every Cup Of Coffee. I thought this was an interesting article from NPR: "For many of us, coffee is the first thought of the day. Just thinking about it gives us the buzz, the energy and the power to ask ourselves the next question, do I make it at home or shell out another $4 at the local Starbucks as I race to work? Well, you may decide to do both if you've seen new research that suggests women who drink more than one cup a day may decrease their risk of depression. The more coffee women drink, the greater we reduce our risk of depression, according to the study. And since one in five women are diagnosed with depression at some point in life, it may be worth contemplating that double shot of espresso."

"Reinvention Man." O.K. For what it's worth I thought I'd share this article in Dockside Magazine, if nothing else than to encourage other middle-aged men and women who've had the career-rug pulled out from underneath them in recent years. The only predictable element of life? Change. The current economic downturn is a threat, and an opportunity to reinvent your life: "On a recent spring evening, the sun was peeking out from the clouds as it descended over Lake Minnetonka. It was a beautiful, peaceful scene framed by a large picture window, and probably visible most evenings, at the Tonka Bay home of Paul Douglas and his wife, Laurie Kruhoeffer. As the sun continued setting that night, Douglas – whose real name is Doug Kruhoeffer – was doing what he often does at home: working on his laptop while sitting on the couch, aka his “home office.” “I get a lot done right here, and can do a lot of thinking,” he says. He needs to, as Douglas, as always, has a lot on his plate. Since being laid off by WCCO-TV for budgetary reasons in early 2008, he continues writing a daily weather column in the Star Tribune, speaking at numerous engagements, and running three companies. Additionally, Douglas has taught college courses on broadcast meteorology, lectured extensively on climate change, and wrote the 2004 book, Restless Skies, the Ultimate Weather Book."

How Did The Robot Wind Up With My Job? Minnesota-born Thomas Friedman strikes again! Here's an excerpt of his latest Op Ed in the New York Times: "In the last decade, we have gone from a connected world (thanks to the end of the cold war, globalization and the Internet) to a hyperconnected world (thanks to those same forces expanding even faster). And it matters. The connected world was a challenge to blue-collar workers in the industrialized West. They had to compete with a bigger pool of cheap labor. The hyperconnected world is now a challenge to white-collar workers. They have to compete with a bigger pool of cheap geniuses — some of whom are people and some are now robots, microchips and software-guided machines. I wrote about the connected world in 2004, arguing that the world had gotten “flat.” When I made that argument, though, Facebook barely existed — and Twitter, cloud computing, iPhones, LinkedIn, iPads, the “applications” industry and Skype had either not been invented or were in their infancy. Now they are exploding, taking us from connected to hyperconnected. It is a huge inflection point masked by the Great Recession." (photo credit above here).

So Cute It Makes Your Teeth Hurt. More details from NPR: "There is a bit of news to go along with this picture. As the AP reports today, China has finished its census of humans and has now started its once-a-decade counting of pandas in the wild. The AP adds: "The official China Daily reported more than 60 trackers were trained at Wanglang National Reserve in the southwestern province of Sichuan, which is believed to have the largest number of wild pandas in China. They will collect droppings for DNA analysis, which will allow zoologists to track individual pandas and accurately estimate the population, Chen Youping, director of the reserve's administrative bureau, was quoted by Xinhua News Agency as saying."

Weather On Steroids

For 30 years climate scientists have been careful not to attribute any one storm (or season) to climate change. That unwillingness to connect the meteorological dots may be fading, in response to a global uptick in extreme weather. Warmer air holds more water vapor. A 4% spike in atmospheric water doesn't sound like much, but it may explain the recent surge in record floods and shifting patterns resulting in more drought. 387 million people were impacted by drought the first 6 months of 2011. 200 U.S. cities broke their highest temperature records this summer.

Think Barry Bonds: you can't prove that any one of Bond's 762 home runs was the result of steroids. But those alleged injections altered his "base state", increasing the odds of hitting one over the fence. Releasing 95 million tons of greenhouse gases into the atmosphere (daily) may be spiking our storms. The experiment goes on.

America's  autumns are becoming longer and milder; in spite of a mild La Nina, long range models many northern tier cities in the 60s and 70s (even some 80s) into the 3rd week of October.

October 2: Category 4 Ophelia - Warming Trend Central USA

Medtronic Twin Cities Marathon Weather: Clear and comfortable with low humidity, a light south breeze at 10 mph.
               8 am                10 am                 noon
                 49                      58                       67
* Twin Cities In Motion poster credit here.

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
258 AM CDT SAT OCT 1 2011

...PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT...

DRIEST SEPTEMBER ON RECORD SET AT MINNEAPOLIS/ST PAUL
INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT

A NEW RECORD LOW PRECIPITATION TOTAL FOR THE MONTH OF SEPTEMBER
WAS SET WITH JUST 0.36 INCHES OF PRECIPITATION RECORDED THIS
SEPTEMBER. THE PREVIOUS RECORD DRIEST SEPTEMBER OCCURRED IN 1940
WITH 0.41 INCHES RECORDED THAT SEPTEMBER.

...BELOW IS AN UPDATED LISTING OF THE FIVE DRIEST SEPTEMBERS RECORDED
AT MSP...

YEAR       PRECIPITATION TOTAL (INCHES)
---------------------------------------
2011                      0.36
1940                      0.41
1952                      0.42
2009                      0.46
1969                      0.49


...BELOW IS A LISTING OF OTHER LOCATIONS THAT ALSO SAW VERY LOW
PRECIPITATION TOTALS IN SEPTEMBER 2011...

LOCATION   PRECIPITATION TOTAL (INCHES)
---------------------------------------
REDWOOD FALLS             0.13
CHANHASSEN (NWS OFFICE)   0.26
FLYING CLOUD AIRPORT      0.28
MANKATO                   0.32
ST. PAUL                  0.47
CRYSTAL                   0.48
RED WING                  0.58
ST. CLOUD                 0.74
ALEXANDRIA                0.87

MLB Forecast For Today:

Detroit Tigers at New York Yankees — Game 2
3 PM Eastern — Yankee Stadium, Bronx, NY
First Pitch: 65° Cloudy, isolated shower; Wind SE 10 mph
7th Inning Stretch: 65° Cloudy, isolated shower; Wind S 10 mph
Final Out: 64° Cloudy, isolated shower; Wind SW 10 mph

Arizona Diamondbacks at Milwaukee Brewers — Game 2
5 PM Eastern (4 PM Central) — Miller Park, Milwaukee, WI
First Pitch: 64° Sunny; Wind NW 5-10 mph
7th Inning Stretch: 59° Sunny; Wind NW 5-10 mph
Final Out: 54° Clear; Wind NW 5-10 mph

St. Louis Cardinals at Philadelphia Phillies — Game 2
8:30 PM Eastern — Citizens Bank Park, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania
First Pitch: 53° Cloudy, rain; Wind SW 5-10 mph
7th Inning Stretch: 52° Cloudy, rain; Wind SW 5-10 mph
Final Out: 51° Cloudy, rain; Wind SW 5-10 mph

* photo of Yankee Stadium courtesy of The Guardian.

Perfect Marathon Weather. The Medtronic Twin Cities Marathon kicks off Sunday morning at 8 am, and the weather is going to be absolutely perfect. Plan on a 7 am temperature of 48. By 10 am the mercury reaches 58, by noon I expect 68 degrees. Winds will be light, from the south/southeast, around 10 mph. Expect low humidity under a sunny sky. By mid afternoon I expect some low to mid 70s in the metro, but most runners will experience temperatures in the 50s and 60s for most of the marathon. More details here - good luck to everyone running (and watching!)

...WETTEST SEPTEMBER ON RECORD AT BALTIMORE MD...

 A RECORD MONTHLY RAINFALL OF 13.32 INCHES WAS SET FOR SEPTEMBER AT
BALTIMORE IN 2011. THIS BREAKS THE OLD SEPTEMBER RECORD OF 12.41 SET
IN 1934.

 THE TWO-MONTH PERIOD OF AUGUST TO SEPTEMBER 2011 WAS THE WETTEST
TWO-MONTH PERIOD ON RECORD FOR BALTIMORE. THE 23.70 INCHES OF
RAINFALL DURING THIS TIME SURPASSED THE PREVIOUS WETTEST TWO-MONTH
PERIOD OF 19.04 INCHES IN AUGUST AND SEPTEMBER 1934

* Baltimore photo credit here.

Wild And Windy. Winds gusted to 60 mph in the Chicagoland area late Thursday into Friday morning of last week as a poweful Alberta Clipper raced across the Great Lakes, a strong contrast in atmospheric pressure whipping up violent winds. Here's a post from WGN TV's Tom Skilling on Facebook: “Amazing scenes along Lake Michigan this morning! There were towering waves driven by gale force winds. The NOAA buoy, 50 miles ESE of Milwaukee, recorded 23 ft. waves! The NOAA lake level sensor at Cal Harbor reported a 2.5 ft water level rise this AM in the storm surge. The rise put beaches half under water! Peak Chi gusts: 46 ORD, 45 MDW. Area gusts late Thu reached 60 mph Pecatonica & Peotone, 58 mph RFD. Monroe WI reported a 68 mph gust. Winds this AM on MI side of lake hit 68 mph a mile near South Haven & 61 mph at Sable Point. Many call the waves the biggest they’ve seen.” (photo above courtesy of KSDK).

Wind reports:
http://www.crh.noaa.gov/news/display_cmsstory.php?wfo=lot&storyid=73521&source=0

Best Weekend For Fall Color Peepers? This is it - I have a (very) strong hunch that if you wait until next weekend you may be disappointed, colors past peak over much of central and northern Minnesota. Today and tomorrow should be ideal for fall-color-gawking with blue sky, light winds, and colors close to peak color from the northern/western suburbs of the Twin Cities to St. Cloud, Little Falls and the Brainerd Lakes area to the North Shore of Lake Superior. More details from the Minnesota DNR here.

Driest September On Record For MSP. Continuing a trend started in August - September was much drier than average across much of western and southern Minnesota. Here is an excerpt from Mark Seeley's WeatherTalk post: "September was a drier than normal month across nearly all of the state, especially western and southern counties. Many observers reported less than 1 inch of rainfall. One of the few observers reporting above normal rainfall was Grand Meadow in southeastern Minnesota where they had 4.27 inches. For many September, 2011 was one of the driest in history with less than half an inch of rainfall, and measurable rain on only 4-5 days during the month. Some of these included:

0.36" at MSP Airport (driest ever)
0.25" at Marshall (2nd driest)
0.05" at Lamberton (driest ever)
0.23" at Pipestone (2nd driest)
0.39" at Chaska (3rd driest)
0.41" at Wheaton (5th driest)
0.21" at Madison (driest ever)
0.34" at Browns Valley (3rd driest)
0.36" at Milan (4th driest)
0.39" at Gull Lake (5th driest)"

* Photo of Red Wing taken on Friday courtesy of Bernie White.

Average Date Of First Frost. Most years the first frost of the season arrives in the Twin Cities (downtown and close-in suburbs) during the first week of October.

Growing Drought. I was surprised to see the latest Drought Monitor from NOAA: 19.26% of Minnesota in a moderate drought, a little less than 5% of the state (Arrowhead) in a severe drought. After a very wet June and July rainfall went off a cliff starting in August - the dry trend accelerating into September (driest on record for MSP).

30 Day Rainfall. September has been a month of all or nothing. Parts of southwestern Minnesota picked up less than a tenth of an inch of rain, while central Pennsylvania has been inundated under 20" of rain - 6 to 7 month's worth of rain. Irene and Lee were the major culprits, but last week's stalled "cut-off" low over the Great Lakes kept a steady stream of tropical moisture flowing northward, fueling more torrential rains. Click here to see rainfall data from NOAA.

Extended Dry Spell. The next chance of rain for most of the Upper Midwest won't come until the end of next week, probably late Friday and Friday night. It's early, but the GFS model clears skies on Saturday, highs probably holding in the 60s. Again, no numbing fronts in sight - yet.

BWCA Fire Impacting Moose Hunting. The Minnesota DNR is offering hunters refunds on their licenses  or have the license reinstated for future hunts if the Pagami creek fire has impacted their hunting zones. Here's the latest from the Minnesota DNR: "Participants in this fall's bulls-only moose hunt can chose to have their licenses refunded and reinstated for a future hunt if the Pagami Creek fire in the Boundary Waters Canoe Area Wilderness (BWCAW) has impacted or limited access to the zone in which they are authorized to hunt."

* Pagami Creek Blaze is now 67% contained. More details here.
 

Red Tide Glows Blue Along San Diego Coast. This is a bit bizarre, strangely beautiful, but potentially bad news for sea life impacted by the red tide. Click here to read more from the Washington Post:  "Red tide comes from an algae bloom in the bay. At night, when the algae are disturbed, by either swimmers or waves, they give off a blue light. It may be pretty, but the algae that causes this phenomena is also closely related to algae that cause shellfish harm, and in a rare case, got so thick along a French beach, that a man riding his horse was knocked out from the fumes. "

Photo credit: "Bioluminescent phytoplankton create their own light during a red tide in the rolling surf along the coast of Leucadia, Calif. (MIKE BLAKE - REUTERS) "

Category 4 Ophelia. On Saturday Ophelia strengthened into a rare Category 4 hurricane with 140 mph sustained winds. The core of the strongest winds and highest storm surge passed just east of Bermuda.

Ophelia Track. A Tropical Storm Watch has been posted for Prince Edward Island, in the Canadian Maritimes. Ophelia should weaken rapidly today as the storm passes over colder ocean water. Map courtesy of NHC and Ham Weather.

Better Storm Forecasts Coming With New Radar. It's the last buzz-word in meteorological circles. "dual-pol". Short for dual polarization Doppler radar, which does a better job detecting precipitation types, forecasting how much rain or snow may fall, even tracking the "debris ball" near the surface from a tornado. MSNBC.com has the story: "When it comes to storm forecasting, there's a new national leader. Washington state this week deployed an advanced Doppler weather radar that uses "dual polarization" — a technology that better predicts rain amount and even see if a twister is hiding inside a storm. By the end of October, its two other Doppler radars should be upgraded as well, making Washington the first in the nation to be fully dual polarized. The new radar is "the first addition to the nation's weather radar network since the 1990s," National Weather Service Director Jack Hayes said at the dedication on Thursday in Copalis Beach, Wash. Dual polarization, he added, provides "significantly more information and clearer pictures of precipitation and severe weather to help National Weather Service meteorologists provide more accurate and timely forecasts."

Drone To Be Used To Forecast Hurricanes. This is a new development (made me wonder out loud if the hurricane hunter pilots may eventually be replaced by robotic drones). Hope not. Here's an article from UPI: "MIAMI, Oct. 1 (UPI) -- The National Hurricane Center will fly a small unmanned aircraft into hurricanes next year to improve tropical storm forecasting. The aircraft, called GALE, is shot into a storm where it gathers wind speed and other atmospheric data, the South Florida Sun Sentinel reported Friday. "It gives us a better understanding of how the ocean is interacting with the atmosphere," said Joe Cione, project leader with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. "Right now, the models are guessing at what's going on down there." The drone is 3 feet long, weighs 8 pounds and costs $30,000. GALE flies at about 55 miles per hour and can stay in the air for about 1.5 hours before falling into the ocean. "We're basically hoping this thing will last as long as it can. The wind forces will take over and cause it to rotate. But that's exactly what we want," said Massood Towhidnejad, a professor of software engineering at Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University in Daytona Beach."

In Irene's Wake, High And Dry Enough? Many New York City residents had an "oh-crap" moment when Hurricane Irene was approaching - no idea if they were in an evacuation zone or how many feet above sea level they were living. The New York Times has more: "WHEN Hurricane Irene roared up the East Coast this summer and drew a bead on Manhattan, hundreds of thousands of New Yorkers were surprised to learn they had something in common: They were living in Evacuation Zone A and potentially at imminent risk of being flooded out of their homes. Mayor Michael R. Bloomberg declared a state of emergency, shut down mass transit and urged some 300,000 people to flee to higher ground. But aside from some soggy streets, frayed nerves and a miserable Monday commute, New York City was spared the worst of the storm. It did, however, put a spotlight on the city’s waterfront, where in recent years, hundreds of millions of dollars of public money has been spent to improve parks, build esplanades and create the infrastructure necessary for residential development. The construction of pricey rental and condo towers along the shoreline, in neighborhoods like Battery Park City, Long Island City and Williamsburg, has transformed warehouse and wharf districts. New buildings and planned projects will add thousands of apartments over the next decade, helping ease a projected housing crunch as the city’s population balloons past nine million people." (image above courtesy of NASA).

Texas Drought Could Last 9 Years. Here's a post from Dr. Jeff Masters at Weather Underground: "The devastating Texas drought that has already cost over $5 billion could continue for nine more years, predicted Texas State Climatologist John Nielson-Gammon in an interview with Reuters yesterday. "It is possible that we could be looking at another of these multi-year droughts like we saw in the 1950s, and like the tree rings have shown that the state has experienced over the last several centuries," Nielson-Gammon said. Drought statistics released yesterday by the U.S. Drought Monitor showed that over 96% of Texas is experiencing the two worst categories of drought, extreme and exceptional. The past 12 months have been the driest one-year period on record in Texas. The main blame for this year's drought can be put on La Niña, the cooling of equatorial Pacific waters that deflects the jet stream and takes rain-bearing low pressure system away from Texas."

* Click here to see the latest Drought Monitor snapshot for Texas, courtesy of NOAA.

Climate Calendar. By the end of October the average high in the Twin Cities is 50. Odds are we'll see the first flurries of the winter season by the third or fourth week of October - accumulating snow is rare, but can't be ruled out. The trend in recent years has been for milder, drier Octobers with frequent 60s, even 70s from time to time. Click here to see all the October details, courtesy of the Minnesota State Climate Office.


You Love Your iPhone - Literally. Not sure if Android owners have the same sense of attachment with their smartphones, but many iPhone lovers have a special bond with their "devices". For some it's a full-blown love affair. The New York Times has more: "With Apple widely expected to release its iPhone 5 on Tuesday, Apple addicts across the world are getting ready for their latest fix. But should we really characterize the intense consumer devotion to the iPhone as an addiction? A recent experiment that I carried out using neuroimaging technology suggests that drug-related terms like “addiction” and “fix” aren’t as scientifically accurate as a word we use to describe our most cherished personal relationships. That word is “love.”


Climate Stories...

The Threats To A Crucial Canopy. What's happening to the Evergreens across the Rockies? Could the same (deadly) beetle infestation affect Minnesota's pine trees? Here's a troubling article from the New York Times: "WISE RIVER, Mont. — The trees spanning many of the mountainsides of western Montana glow an earthy red, like a broadleaf forest at the beginning of autumn. But these trees are not supposed to turn red. They are evergreens, falling victim to beetles that used to be controlled in part by bitterly cold winters. As the climate warms, scientists say, that control is no longer happening. Across millions of acres, the pines of the northern and central Rockies are dying, just one among many types of forests that are showing signs of distress these days. From the mountainous Southwest deep into Texas, wildfires raced across parched landscapes this summer, burning millions more acres. In Colorado, at least 15 percent of that state’s spectacular aspen forests have gone into decline because of a lack of water. The devastation extends worldwide." (photo courtesy of insideclimatenews.com).

Retired Republicans Quietly Try To Shift GOP Climate Change Focus. Some of my Republican brethern have actually seen the light, and are acknowledging that the GOP may be on the wrong (long-term) side of the climate story. Here are details from the National Journal: "To hear GOP presidential front-runner Rick Perry and some tea party-backed lawmakers tell it, the Republican position on global warming is that it’s a problem that doesn’t even exist. That wasn’t always the case. And if prominent Republican elder statesmen have their way, it won’t continue to be. Between 2005 and 2010, prominent moderate Republican Sens. John McCain of Arizona, Lindsey Graham of South Carolina, Lisa Murkowski of Alaska, and John Warner of Virginia (now retired) were among Washington’s leading voices in the call to fight climate change, and authored cap-and-trade bills aimed at addressing the problem. And they did so as leaders of their party: while running for president, chairing Senate committees, and working within the congressional leadership. Now, moderate Republicans like McCain and Graham have quieted their voices on the issue, in part because acknowledging climate change puts them out of sync with the tea party base that has so energized their party, and because climate-change legislation stands no chance of passing Congress in the current political environment. But quietly, many acknowledge a deepening GOP schism over the issue, as many moderates grow increasingly disturbed by their party’s denial of proven science. A number of influential Republicans who have left the battlefield of electoral politics are now taking action in an effort to change the GOP’s stance."

World's Engineers: Technology We Need To Address Climate Change Already Exists! We have the technology to reduce carbon emissions even as we ramp up with traditional carbon-based fuels and renewables. But sadly we don't seem to have the political will to take the next step. Clean Technica and Joe Romm over at Climate Progress have the (encouraging) story: "The technology needed to cut the world’s greenhouse gas emissions by 85% by 2050 already exists, according to a joint statement by eleven of the world’s largest engineering organisations. The statement says that generating electricity from wind, waves and the sun, growing biofuels sustainably, zero emissions transport, low carbon buildings and energy efficiency technologies have all been demonstrated. However they are not being developed for wide-scale use fast enough and there is a desperate need for financial and legislative support from governments around the world if they are to fulfil their potential. That’s the news release from the UK’s Institution of Mechanical Engineers (IME), one of the 11 signatory groups. The groups explicitly call for a peak in global emissions in 2020 and an intensive effort to train workers for green technology jobs."

Why Does The Global Warming Debate Provoke So Much Anger? Good question - I've wondered the same thing. It seems like climate change threatens the way some people look at the world. NPR.org has the story: "My topic today is not global warming. My topic, rather, is our attitudes, thoughts and feelings about global warming. It is a striking fact that many people get very worked up over this topic. People get hot under the collar. Why is this? Ursula Goodenough took up this issue here at 13.7 a few months ago. She asked: What motivates climate change deniers? Robert Krulwich, just this past week over on his blog, wonders: Why does the climate change topic make people angry? This is a tractable metacognitive question. I'd like to venture an answer to it. Let me first begin with some preliminaries. First, the question — Why do people have such strong feelings on this topic? — is an empirical question. My proposal is merely speculative. I may be wrong. Second, the question is not merely empirical. Suppose I am locked in conflict with my significant other. I might pose the empirical question: What best explains why she is so angry with me? I might speculate as to possible causes; I might take up the standpoint of the empirical scientist bent on understanding the causes of her feeling state. Could it be hormonal? Did something happen to her at work today? Did she forget to take her medications?"

Climate Change: Will Chocolate Become A Costly Luxury? Uh oh. Don't mess with my coffee or my chocolate. Now you definitely have my attention. Theweek.com has a story I was sorely tempted to censor (for your mental health): "If temperatures continue to rise, a new report suggests, West Africa, source of half the world's chocolate, will be unfit to grow the coveted beans. Is the world's cocoa supply in danger? That's what a new study from the International Center for Tropical Agriculture (CIAT) suggests, singling out a familiar culprit: Global warming. The findings [see PDF] reveal that annual temperature increases will hamper the crop-production efforts in West Africa, which currently supplies half of the world's chocolate — at least if preventive measures aren't taken. Here's what you should know: How hot are we talking? The study, which consulted 19 climate-change models, indicates that a mere two degrees Celcius increase by 2050 will render areas like Ghana and the Ivory Coast too hot to grow cocoa, says The Washington Post. As cocoa trees struggle to obtain enough water, the developmental stages of cocoa pods that house "the prized cocoa bean" — source of the chocolate we know and love — would be disturbed. The effects of a shortage — including a leap in the price of chocolate — could be felt as soon as 2030. "

Ask An Aggie: Climate Change Is Real. Here's a story from onearth.org: "Deep in the heart of Texas, the scientific consensus is alive and kicking -- no matter what the local politicians say. For the tens of millions of Americans who are determined to "take their country back" (from what or whom exactly is still a mystery to me), there’s no climate debate. The jury is in. Global warming is a hoax, the product of a conspiracy so immense that it dwarfs anything Senator Joe McCarthy dreamed up when he was sniffing out Chinese communists in the State Department. The command posts of this conspiracy are well known by now: the leftist radicals at the United Nations; the University of East "Climategate" Anglia; and pointy-headed, elitist institutions like Princeton and Yale, Stanford and Berkeley. By contrast to these bicoastal cosmopolitans, we’ve been hearing a lot recently about the homespun heartland virtues of schools like Texas A&M, where we’re told that a talent for yelling loudly at football games is just as important as good grades -- and is held to be no impediment to the pursuit of high office. But hold on; there’s a problem with this scenario. It turns out that Texas A&M is in fact one of the nerve centers of the great climate conspiracy, together with other football-mad southern and Midwestern schools like the universities of Alabama, Nebraska, and Oklahoma, all of which are doing groundbreaking research on global warming."

Climate Skeptic Proves That He Knows How To Waste Time, Money. Media Matters has the story of Anthony Watts, one of the most vocal and shrill climate skeptics: "Their newest descent into failure comes courtesy of one Anthony Watts, who claims to have proven conclusively that Al Gore "doctored a video that's supposed to prove his global warming theories." Here is the video, from Current TV, in which Bill Nye walks us through a simple experiment demonstrating the warming effects of carbon dioxide."