WeatherNation Headlines

March 8: Atmospheric Time Warp (a taste of May next week?)

2012-03-07T20:37:00.000-08:00

Typical...For First Half of May. This is the raw forecast out of the ECMWF model, which shows highs close to 70 from Tuesday through Thursday of next week, maybe low to mid 70s by Friday? Not buying it yet, but considering we've lost (most) of our snowcover, and winds at all levels of the atmosphere will be howling from the south, nothing would shock me at this point. Yes, we seem to have skipped a month, possibly two.

Green Grass At Target Field. O.K. I'm there, sitting in the stands, popcorn, a (large) adult beverage, watching my favorite baseball team. Won't be long now. A sneak peak at Target Field courtesy of the Minnesota Twins.

"Without ample, widespread precipitation in the late winter and early spring, Minnesota will face a number of drought-related issues at the beginning of the 2012 growing season. The drought situation will become rapidly apparent in the spring in the form of wildfire potential, deficient soil moisture supplies, and low water levels in wetlands, lakes, and rivers." - climatatologist Greg Spoden, of the Minnesota Climatology Working Group. Details below. Latest Drought Monitor here.

"Springtime is the land awakening. The March winds are the morning yawn." - quoted by Lewis Grizzard in "Kathy Sue Loudermild, I Love You." Photo: Yahoo.

4th warmest meteorological winter on record for Minnesota (and the lower 48 states of the USA). Source: NCDC. Photo credit: kayakfishingblog.com.

8.64" rain at Lihue, Hawaii Tuesday. This obliterates the old record of 1.14", set in 1974. Source: NOAA. Photo: NASA.

"Unlike snowstorms or hurricanes, which come with plenty of advance warning, tornadoes pose unique challenges for school districts because they can pop up suddenly, leaving little time to scramble to safety." - from a CBS News article below. (AP Photo/Nam Y. Huh)

"A Mackinac Center report says the real cost of the (Chevy) Volt is closer to $300,000. That includes the suggested retail price, the known $7,500 federal subsidy and another $250,000 in taxpayer-funded state and federal incentives for each car". - from an investor.com story (below) focused on the beleaguered EV. (AP Photo/David Zalubowski).

"Scruggs, the lead author, says the public's belief in climate change sagged as the economy dipped and unemployment climbed in the late 2000s, dropping from a belief rate of 60-65 percent in 2008 to about 50 percent in 2010." - from a USA Today article linking climate change denial with a worsening economy. Details below.

Forget March (and April). Next Week May Feel Like Early May. This is when I start to get nervous; when the weather gets wildly out of whack. Expect 50s this weekend, with a good chance of 60s next week. I have a strong hunch we'll see some low 70s the end of next week. If you don't have spring fever yet, give it about 4 days.

3rd Least Snowcover In Last 46 Years. "The warm and dry conditions during the 2011-2012 winter season limited snowfall for many locations. According to data from the Rutgers Global Snow Lab, snow cover extent during winter was approximately 237,000 square miles below the 1981-2010 average — the third smallest winter snow cover footprint in the 46-year satellite record. Snowpack was particularly limited across parts of the West, where parts of California, Nevada, and Arizona had snowpack less than half of average." - source: NOAA's NCDC. According to NOAA 24.1% of the lower 48 states were covered with snow as of March 7.

Climate Report For February And Winter. The latest from NOAA's NCDC: "Warmer-than-average temperatures dominated the northern and eastern regions of the country in December, January and February, leading to the fourth warmest winter on record for the contiguous United States. The winter season was also drier-than-average for the Lower 48, with dry conditions experienced across the West and the Southeast but wetter-than-average conditions in the Central and Southern Plains and parts of the Ohio Valley. The average contiguous U.S. temperature during the December-February period was 36.8 degrees F, 3.9 degrees F above the 1901-2000 long-term average — the warmest since 2000. The precipitation averaged across the nation was 5.70 inches, 0.78 inch below the long-term average."

Winter Numbers. Nationwide, it was the 4th warmest meteorological winter on record. It was the 4th warmest winter for Minnesota, Michigan and Illionis, the third warmest for Wisconsin. Source: NCDC.

Growing Drought Concerns. Here's an update from Greg Spoden and a HydroClim Minnesota summary, from the Minnesota Climatology Group:

- Many drought-stricken Minnesota counties received above-normal precipitation in February 2012. Monthly precipitation totals topped the historical average by more than one inch over most of southern Minnesota. However, this welcome precipitation only partially mitigated the very large moisture deficits built up during the late summer and autumn of 2011.

- The U. S. Drought Monitor depicts nearly every Minnesota county as experiencing some level of drought. A large portion of northeast Minnesota, where river and lake levels are very low, is placed in the Severe Drought category. The Drought Monitor also rates much of southern Minnesota in the Severe Drought category. Nearly all other Minnesota locales are determined to be in Moderate Drought.

- Without ample, widespread precipitation in the late winter and early spring, Minnesota will face a number of drought-related issues at the beginning of the 2012 growing season. The drought situation will become rapidly apparent in the spring in the form of wildfire potential, deficient soil moisture supplies, and low water levels in wetlands, lakes, and rivers.

* more on Minnesota's persistent drought from NOAA NCEP here.

Potential For A Real Storm? The GFS forecast above is valid late in the day on March 21, nearly 2 weeks out, so my confidence level is low. If it verifies we could see heavy rain, ending as a period of snow. Even though next week may see near-record warmth I wouldn't entirely write off the potential for 1 or 2 more significant snowfalls. It would be cruel going from 70-ish to slushy snow, but keep in mind that late March snowfalls usually don't stick around for long.

A Tale Of Two Seasons. The weather may be May-like the end of next week, showers, even a few T-storms possible for St. Patrick's Day. The GFS is hinting at a far more significant (southern) storm tracking just south/east of MSP around March 20-22, probably warm enough for mostly rain, but I wouldn't rule out a changeover to wet snow at the tail-end of the storm. We don't even know if this storm is real (yet), so it's wildly premature to speculate about amounts or timing.

A Town That Had A Real Winter. Here's a post from the Fairbanks office of the National Weather Service: "The Fairbanks area has received their largest snowfall of the season. Snow started falling late Monday evening and continued through Wednesday morning. Thanks for the updated snow totals from our spotters and CO-OP observers in the region. Several more inches of snow are possible across the Fairbanks area today before the snow comes to an end this evening."

Strong Solar Storm Impacting Earth. From NOAA. GPS systems may be impacted; a higher probability of seeing the Aurora Borealis; with any luck the power grid won't be affected.

"A solar flare erupted from the Sun on Tuesday night at 7:04pm EST, creating a Strong (R3 level) Radio Blackout. The initial affects were mainly felt over the Pacific Ocean, during the central U.S. overnight period, which happened to be the sunlit side of the Earth at that time. The primary impact was a temporary degradation of High Frequency (HF) radio communications, which also affected communications with commercial aircraft over the Pacific."

Site Of The Day: Ovation Auroral Forecast. This is the first time I've seen this - "Ovation" - a test product from NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Testbed, NOAA and Johns Hopkins. More details: "OVATION: An empirical model of the intensity of the aurora. The model uses solar wind conditions and the IMF at the L1 point as inputs.

The Display: Shows the intensity and location of the aurora as expected for the time shown at the bottom of the map. This forecast is based on current solar wind conditions and the average time for the solar wind to propagate from the ACE satellite at L1 to Earth. The model produces an estimate of the intensity of the aurora. In this product a linear relationship between intensity and viewing probability is assumed. This relationship was validated by comparison with data from the UVI instrument on the NASA POLAR Satellite ."

Predicting The Northern Lights. In Alaska, where aurora is fairly common, NOAA routinely predicts the odds of seeing the magical Northern Lights. You can check out the latest forecast on the Alaska NWS Facebook site.

Schools Face Tough Calls With Tornado Oubreaks. It's a real problem: if a tornado watch is in effect do you send kids home early? Are they ultimately safer at school or at home? Getting caught by a tornado on the way home would be catastrophic, so school administrators are faced with a real no-win situation during a scenario like last Friday, when tornadoes swept across the Ohio Valley at roughly the same time many schools were letting out. CBS News tackles the problem: "HENRYVILLE, Ind. — Friday's tornado came at the worst possible time for the hundreds of students loaded on school buses, ready to head home in Henryville, Ind. There was no time to follow the preferred safety plan and herd students off the bus and inside the school. Instead, an assistant principal signaled drivers to go, setting off a desperate race to beat the tornado that was just minutes from slamming into the town and destroying a large part of the school. Unlike snowstorms or hurricanes, which come with plenty of advance warning, tornadoes pose unique challenges for school districts because they can pop up suddenly, leaving little time to scramble to safety."

Photo credit above: "This March 3, 2012 file photo shows an American flag flying over the damaged gym at Henryville High School in Henryville, Ind.. Unlike snowstorms or hurricanes, which come with ample warning, the sudden nature of tornadoes presents unique challenges for school officials deciding whether to hold students in place or send them home. The choice, they say, boils down to evacuating well ahead of a storm or sheltering students inside until the storm passes. Neither is guaranteed to save lives. (AP Photo/Michael Conroy)."

After The Storms Have Passed. Here's a poignant essay at The Washington Post: "LOUISVILLE, Ky. — As I boarded a flight in New York, television monitors in the terminal told horrific stories of tornadoes devastating towns and cities across the Ohio River Valley, where I was heading. I recognized some places being hit, including my birthplace in southwestern Indiana. Others, like Henryville, Ind., just north of Louisville, were unfamiliar to me. Still, I recognized the stories they told, of school buses filled with children racing to stay ahead of the storm; of houses flattened and lifetime treasures destroyed; of businesses closing early and hoping to find walls standing the next day. More than 30 people died, including a baby who was carried 10 miles by the wind and dropped into a cornfield."

Photo credit above: "Mike Justice's pickup truck remained in a pond near his girlfriend's house in Woodbend, Kentucky, Tuesday, March 06, 2012. He was with his girlfriend, Melissa Rose, when the tornado struck. Rose's house was completely destroyed leaving only the basement foundation. They survived. Morgan County suffered 5 fatalities and significant damage as numerous tornados moved across Kentucky last Friday. (Charles Bertram/Lexington Herald-Leader/MCT)."

Tornado Season: How Do Meteorologists Predict Twisters? Here's a good overview of the science of tornado prediction from Time Magazine: "March isn’t typically the busiest time of year for tornadoes. But the residents of Henryville, Ind., can take no solace in that fact, after a powerful EF-4 category storm with winds of 175 mph ripped through town last week. And, unfortunately, neither can the rest of the Midwest, as towns await the brunt of cyclone season. Deadly tornadoes continue as a frightening reality in the U.S, especially throughout an area dubbed Tornado Alley (the majority of Texas, Oklahoma, Kansas, Nebraska and portions of other states, including southern Indiana). The threat of the wind-whipping funnels is most acute in May and June. Harold Brooks, a meteorologist with the National Oceanic Atmospheric Association’s National Severe Storms Lab, says tornadoes occur when certain weather elements come together. The mix happens most often in May and June, with April a close third, and a few other points throughout the year during shifting seasons, such as March and September."

NASA Studies March 3 Severe Weather Outbreak With Infrared And Microwave Vision. Details from NASA: "A NASA satellite used infrared and microwave "vision" to analyze the storm system that created the March 3 severe weather outbreak in the U.S. On March 3, 2012, the Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) instrument flies aboard NASA's Aqua satellite captured infrared and microwave data of the front that generated the severe weather during the early morning and early afternoon hours. On the Aqua satellite's first overpass on March 3, infrared data from AIRS showed the strong low pressure area centered on the Great Lake that powered a cold front into the U.S. South and ahead of the front lay an incursion of unusually warm moist air. Where the two met, a line of severe thunderstorms developed which spawned the killer tornadoes and damaging straight line wind storms."

Kentucky Tornado Tracks. More details from the Jackson, Kentucky office of the National Weather Service: "Ground surveys for the March 2nd tornado outbreak have been completed by NWS Jackson, KY. The surveys have revealed four separate tornadoes affecting parts of nine different counties and causing widespread destruction to the towns of West Liberty and Salyersville. The first tornado in recorded history affected Martin County and this was the first occurrence of an EF2 or greater tornado on record in Menifee, Magoffin, Johnson and Martin Counties."

Firefighters Fight Three Brushfires Across Arizona. A lack of significant rain (or snow) has created tinder-dry conditions across much of America. Odds are, unless the pattern reverses itself rapidly, it's going to be a near-record spring for brushfires. KVOA-TV has more: "TUBAC, Ariz.- Arizona is under fire again. Gusty winds this week have made conditions perfect for a fire to spread and firefighters worked to put out three across the state Tuesday. The fire closest to Tucson started Tuesday afternoon near Tubac. "All of a sudden we walked outside and the air was full of smoke, Resident Mary Ball says. Ball panicked when she saw the flames, which firefighters believe started in someone's backyard. "We were a little petrified that the winds would shift the flames and we would lose our house, which would be just terrible," Ball says."

200-Acre Clay County, Florida Wildfire Burns Home, Causes Evacuations. Jacksonville.com has more details: "A Clay County fire of about 200 acres destroyed one home, damaged another structure and forced some evacuations Tuesday afternoon. What’s being called the “Caribbean Circle Fire” started out as a backyard burn that got out of control about 2:30 p.m, said Clay County Fire Rescue. Two vehicles also were damaged. No one was injured. At 8:45 p.m., the fire was 50 percent contained, according to Clay County Fire Rescue. Heavy smoke may limit visibility in the morning hours, and drivers should be cautious. Residents with respiratory conditions should remain indoors, and keep windows and doors closed."

Current Brushfires Around The USA. Using this NOAA tool you can track real-time brushfires and wildfires around the nation.

Spider Webs Encase Flooded Australia. Yahoo News has the nasty details. Can you imagine anything worse? "Spiders are seen in their webs spun round dry sticks on a bush next to flood waters in Wagga Wagga March 6, 2012. Floods across eastern Australia forced more than 13,000 people to evacuate their homes on Tuesday after record-high summer rains drenched three states over the past week, swelling rivers and forcing dams to overflow. Photo: REUTERS/Daniel Munoz."

New Orleans Group Promotes Hurricane Awareness. Details from The New York Times: "NEW ORLEANS — For most city officials here, making plans to evacuate tens of thousands of residents from the wrath of a hurricane brings to mind a tangle of logistics: bus routes, out-of-state shelters, fresh water supplies, public safety. But for one young transplant named Robert X. Fogarty, evacuation means 12-foot-tall sculptures placed strategically around town...Hurricane awareness has not been a hard sell to people still reeling from Hurricane Katrina. But as memories of the floods recede, Mr. Fogarty and city officials are looking for ways to keep the potential of mandatory evacuation present in the popular consciousness. “That’s our biggest challenge as a city moving forward,” Mr. Fogarty said. “It’s the natural sequence of events of, ‘Well, nothing happened last year...’ ”

Photo credit above: "This Aug. 28, 2006 file photo shows FEMA trailers used for housing for University of New Orleans students and faculty in New Orleans. The last of the FEMA trailers has been removed from New Orleans more than six years after floodwalls and levees broke during Hurricane Katrina and caused the city to flood. On Wednesday, Feb. 15, 2012 the Federal Emergency Management Agency said the last trailer was removed Sunday. (AP Photo/Alex Brandon, file)."

Aurora Borealis Alert. There have been significant coronal mass ejections (solar flares) in recent days - with vivid displays of the Northern Lights visible as close as the Lake Superior shoreline. Details from NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center: "The NWS Space Weather Prediction Center is monitoring several ongoing space weather events that could have impacts here on Earth. In addition to a recent coronal mass ejection that erupted yesterday evening and is expected to cause geomagnetic storming, a solar radiation storm is in progress. Levels are currently at S2 (Moderate), but are still on the rise at this time."

Paul's Links. Favorite weather-related links:

1). NexSat Day/Night Satellite Image. Here is a terrific URL, courtesy of the Naval Research Lab in Monterey. Different size images, loop IR clouds, zoom into specific regions. Worth a look.

2). Current Conditions. Call up current conditions, for the Upper Midwest, or any region or state in the USA. Track temperatures, winds, humidity, snowcover (above) and watch the weather morph from hour to hour. Maps courtesy of Ham Weather.

3). Simuawips. Every local National Weather Service Office has a remarkable tool called AWIPS, which allows meteorologists to see multiple fields up on the screen at the same time, overlaying different parameters, animating them over time. It's sophisticated, but (sadly) not available to the general public. This is as close as I've come to finding an AWIPS-like simulator, a program called Simuawips. You have to set up an account, but it's free. It's powerful, flexible, and has a lot of great mapping capabilities. If you're a true weather nerd (uh...enthusiast sounds better) this is one you should definitely check out.

Everything That Happens In One Day On The Internet. I found this fascinating infographic at Business Insider. A few conversation starters here: "Our daily life increasingly revolves around blog posts, emails, and status updates. The folks at mbaonline provide a snapshot of what happens in one day on the Internet."

iPad Envy. Gizmodo.com has more details on the iPad you'll be making (feeble) excuses to stand in line for: "Apple unveiled the next-generation iPad tablet today, with a super-sharp display (2048 x 1536 pixels, which is 1 million more pixels than HDTV) and quad-core graphics—four times the performance of the iPad 2. In addition to the high-res screen, the new tablet also features:

A dual-core CPU (the processor is Apple's new A5X chipset, which Apple says is twice as powerful as the A5 found in the iPad 2 and four times more powerful than Nvidia's Tegra 3, according to Gizmodo)
A rear iSight camera with 5MP sensor and advanced optics, including IR filter, autofocus, face detection, and white balance
HD video recording (1080p resolution)
Voice dictation (there's a new key on the keyboard for speaking into the iPad)"

* image above (of the real thing) courtesy of Apple.

** Gizmodo has a live-stream recap of everything-iPad here.

Five Leadership Lessons From James T. Kirk. Here's a good story from Forbes.com: "Kirk’s success was no fluke, either. His style of command demonstrates a keen understanding of leadership and how to maintain a team that succeeds time and time again, regardless of the dangers faced. Here are five of the key leadership lessons that you can take away from Captain Kirk as you pilot your own organization into unknown futures."

1. Never Stop Learning
“You know the greatest danger facing us is ourselves, an irrational fear of the unknown. But there’s no such thing as the unknown– only things temporarily hidden, temporarily not understood.” (Photo courtesy of Wikipedia).

My House On Parade of Homes And A New Way of Thinking. This (very green, very efficient, very cost-effective) house belongs to Don Shelby, who wrote an article about the experience at minnpost.com: "Guy walks into my house and says, “So, this is where Paul Magers lives.” That’s how my first experience with the Parade of Homes started. I’ve told you about the energy-efficient home my wife, Barbara, and I built, and now it is a featured house on the spring tour sponsored by the Builders Association of the Twin Cities (BATC). So before we get to call it our own, the crowds move in and put on little paper shoes that make them look like operating room nurses in street clothes. This house is one of the “pay” houses on the tour. It costs the interested five bucks to come through the door. I intend to head to Vegas after the Parade is over."

Photo credit above: "The house will be certified LEED Platinum, Minnesota GreenStar Gold and BATC Greenpath Master level.Joe Paetzel, The Landschute Group."

An "Ultra-Premium" Bentley SUV? Talk about the definition of wretched excess. Gizmag.com has more details: "Whispers about a Bentley SUV - some of them coming directly from Bentley chief Wolfgang Duerheimer - have been floating around for ages. At this week's Geneva Motor Show, Bentley finally puts a face to the rumors. Its EXP 9 F may or may not lead to an eventual production SUV, but it gives the world a look at what a utilitarian Bentley could look like."

Would You Like A Little Sugar With Your Sugar? That's associate producer Alex Buck, drinking Pepsi through a Swizzler (?) I can say that I knew Alex back when he still had teeth. Ah, to be young and reckless again...

"Spring is nature's way of saying, "Let's party!" - Robin Williams. Photo: Wikipedia.

Winter Is Over

"Mom, Uncle Paul is standing too close to the Doppler again!" Yep. Good thing I already had two boys (with some help from my dear, patient wife of 28 years). Yep, I'm off my meds. Let me be clear: we'll see more slush; a few more jacket-worthy cold fronts. But sustained days of bitter cold, close encounters with Snowpocalypse Scenarios? Probably in our rear-view mirror. I'm a little worried about a possible rain-snow event around March 21, but even if we do see snow at the tail-end of that storm it would probably melt within 24-36 hours. You get my drift. The worst ... of what was the easiest winter in 81 years ... is behind us now.

Welcome to a fast-forward spring, a trend in recent years. NASA confirms spring comes 2 weeks earlier than it did a generation ago. We're seeing April weather in March, and after a brief cool-down into Friday - a weather pattern more typical of the first half of MAY is shaping up for next week. Incredible.

NOAA says the lower 48 states just enjoyed/endured the 4th warmest meteorological winter on record. 4th warmest for Minnesota; the 3rd warmest for Wisconsin. According to the Rutgers Snow Lab winter snowcover was the 3rd smallest in 46 years of satellite observations.

Expect flurries later today, more sun on Friday. 50s this weekend give way to 60s next week. I wouldn't be shocked to see 70 (with scattered T-storms?) the latter half of next week. Someday we'll be telling our grandkids about this "winter".

Photo credit above: "Alan Aures skates on his roller blades in a parking lot next to a public ice skating rink covered in thin ice during the mild winter weather in Lancaster, N.Y., Tuesday, March 6, 2012. (AP Photo/David Duprey)."

"Man must feel the earth to know himself and recognize his values...God made life simple. It is man who complicates it." - Charles Lindbergh, 1972. Photo: charleslindbergh.com.

Climate Stories....

James Hansen TED Talk. "Why I Must Speak Out About Climate Change." Huffington Post has the story (and video). Definitely worth a few minutes of your time: "Climate scientist Dr. James Hansen, began a recent TED talk with two important questions. He asks, "What do I know that would cause me -- a reticent, midwestern scientist -- to get myself arrested in front of the White House protesting? And what would you do if you knew what I know?" Hansen explains that his work as a climate scientist dates back to 1981 and a paper he co-authored on global warming. He and his colleagues found that "observed warming of 0.4 C in the prior century was consistent with the greenhouse effect of increasing CO2." He says that they also found, "that Earth would likely warm in the 1980s, and warming would exceed the noise level of random weather by the end of the century."

Global Warming Skepticism Rose As The Economy Tanked. The story from USA Today: "Americans' skepticism about global warming has increased over the past few years, and a recent study says that the dismal economy is the prime reason. "We suggest that the decline in belief about climate change is most likely driven by the economic insecurity caused by the Great Recession," political scientists Lyle Scruggs and Salil Benegal of the University of Connecticut write in the study. The economy is even more of a factor than partisan politics, supposed biased media coverage, or changeable weather, they say." Photo above: Matt McKean, AP.

Michael Mann, The Hockey Stick, And Climate Wars. The accompanying video is worth a look - Mann has been through hell and back, for doing his job, and finding compelling scientific evidence of a sudden uptick in temperature, using proxy data as well as data from the thermometer record. And for that he's been persecuted, pilloried in the denial-sphere, subjected to political inquisitions and death threats aimed at him and his family. Because some (professional, well-paid) deniers will stop at nothing to prevent the truth from getting traction. The Yale Forum on Climate Change And The Media has more: "A Peter Sinclair original video focuses on climate scientist Michael Mann … on and his first-hand view of his hockey stick and ‘climate wars’ experiences. Years of fierce attacks on climate scientist Michael Mann of Penn State University –- and, more to the point, of the iconic “hockey stick” research –- have made him one of the most well-known and widely discussed scientists in America. Independent videographer Peter Sinclair recently conducted a Skype interview with Mann about the time his Hockey Stick and The Climate Wars book was hitting book stores (see related post). Sinclair’s 10-minute Yale Forum video, with his usual inclusion of poignant visuals and commentary, is designed to help both veteran and “newbie” climate science watchers better identify some of the key players in the hockey stick debate so they can better understand the narrative and the gamesmanship of what Mann’s book describes as the hockey stick “climate wars.”

Climate Change Denial Isn't About Science, Or Even Skepticism. Canoe.com has more details: "Lets’ suppose the world’s legitimate scientific institutions and academies, climate scientists, and most of the world’s governments are wrong. Maybe, as some people have argued, they’re involved in a massive conspiracy to impose a socialist world order. Maybe the money’s just too damn good. It doesn’t matter. Let’s just imagine they’re wrong, and that the polar ice caps aren’t melting and the climate isn’t changing. Or, if you prefer, that it’s happening, but that it’s a natural occurrence – nothing to do with seven billion people spewing carbon dioxide and other pollutants into the atmosphere."

Meet Jonathan Foley: "Climate Pragmatist". Dr. Foley at the University of Minnesota is one of the smartest people I know, and I agree with many of his thoughts regarding climate change. The New York Times (subscription required) takes a look at his approach and world-view: "Late in 2010, Jonathan Foley, who directs the Institute of the Environment at the University of Minnesota, wrote “Becoming a Climate Pragmatist,” an essay published online then and the following spring in the institute’s magazine, Momentum. You can get a feel for his work and views in the video above in which he explains 2009 research on “planetary boundaries.” I also encourage you to read his 2011 paper, “Solutions for a Cultivated Planet.” I’ve mentioned his essay a couple of times but am overdue to draw direct attention to it, in part because as others have adopted or bashed the term “climate pragmatism,” Foley’s own views have largely been missed." Photo courtesy of the University of Minnesota.

Climate Change Will Stress Water Supplies. The story from waterworld.com: "U.S. scientists say climate change may bring unsustainable demands on the world's groundwater supply for agriculture, industry and drinking water. As precipitation becomes less frequent due to climate change, lake and reservoir levels will drop and people will increasingly turn to groundwater for the water needs, researchers said. Groundwater supplies nearly half of all drinking water worldwide, they said, but recharges at a much slower rate than above-ground water sources and in many cases is non-renewable. "It is clear that groundwater will play a critical role in society's adaption to climate change," said San Francisco State University geoscience Professor Jason Gurdak, who co-led a U.N.-sponsored group of scientists now urging policymakers to increase regulations and conservation measures on nonrenewable groundwater. Gurdak said he is recommending closely monitoring or limiting groundwater pumping as well as seeking cooperation from communities to consume less water, something he said his own state has been doing."

Climate Change Ravaging Forest Service Budget For Wildfire Mitigation, Officials Say. Realvail.com has the story: "The warming climate is breeding more beetle-ravaged forest and prolonged fire seasons, U.S. Forest Service Chief Tom Tidwell testified before a Senate committee on Tuesday, as he fielded questions about the White House's proposed agency budget for fiscal year 2013. "We've been doing research on the effects of a changing climate to the vegetation on our nation's forests for over two decades," he told the Senate Committee on Energy & Natural Resources in Washington, D.C. "When it comes to fire, we're definitely seeing much longer fire seasons in many parts of the country, another 60 or 70 days longer than what we used to experience." The Forest Service is not only dealing with an uptick in the number of wildfires, wind storms, droughts and other extreme weather as a result of climate change. "We're also seeing much more severe fire behavior than we've ever experienced in the past," Tidwell noted."

Warming Of 2 Degrees (C) Inevitable Over Canada. Simon Fraser University (SFU) has the story: "Halting all emissions of greenhouse gases and aerosols from the Earth’s atmosphere will not immediately stop global warming, says SFU researcher Kirsten Zickfeld, co-author of the first study to reveal this finding. As a result of past emissions, she says the world’s temperature would continue to rise by about a quarter of a degree for 10 years after achieving zero emissions. Considering that the Earth has already warmed by about one degree since the beginning of the industrial era, this adds up to about 1.3 degrees of global warming. In Canada, however, she predicts a warming of as much as two degrees Celsius, since global warming is amplified at high latitudes." Photo: Kirsten Zickfeld.

Too Many Volts, Not Enough Buyers, Especially At That Price. A subsidy of $250,000 for every Volt? I did a double-take when I saw that number. Investors.com has the story: "Government Failure: Chevrolet is shutting down production of the Volt, its electric car. Not even generous federal subsidies are enough to keep this trendy environmentalist flop on the road. General Motors announced late last week that it will discontinue making its plug-in hybrid between March 19 until April 23 "to keep proper inventory levels." In other words, it can't sell enough of the darned things to justify continued production. Through the end of February, Chevrolet had sold a mere 1,626 Volts though it had planned to build 60,000 of them this year and sell 45,000 in the U.S. market."

Photo credit above: "In this Sunday, Feb. 19, 2012 photo, a 2012 Volt priced at more than $45,000 is displayed for sale outside at a Chevrolet dealership in the south Denver suburb of Englewood, Colo. General Motors is suspending production of its Chevrolet Volt electric car for five weeks in hopes of reducing inventory to meet lower-than-expected demand. A GM spokesman said Friday, March 2, 2012 that the company will shut down production of the Volt from March 19 until April 23. (AP Photo/David Zalubowski)."

March 7: April-Like Warmth Sweeps Into Great Lakes, Northeast

2012-03-06T21:20:00.000-08:00

60 F. high in the Twin Cities Tuesday.
0" snow depth at KMSP as of 7 pm yesterday.
22.1" winter snowfall, to date.
78.3" snowfall last winter as of March 6 (source: NOAA).

How Warm? All Bets Are Off. Now that MSP has lost much of its snow (I realize there's still a few inches northern and western 'burbs) the sun's energy will be able to go into heating up the air, not melting snow. The ECMWF brings the mercury into the mid 50s Saturday, slightly cooler Sunday (best chance of rain east of MSP over Wisconsin), before taking off into the mid 50s Monday, upper 50s Tuesday, and an almost incomprehensible 22 C next Wednesday. That's 71.6 F. I know, I don't believe it either, but at the rate we're surging into an early spring? I wouldn't rule anything out.

"Spring Forward". We all lose an hour of sleep this weekend. Daylight Saving Time kicks off at 2 am Sunday morning. Don't forget to set your clocks ahead one hour before going to be Saturday night. Another sure-fire sign of spring!

14 freezes for Dallas this past winter, a record for fewest on record. Photo credit here.
12.41" rain for Dallas this winter, second wettest La Nina winter on record.
54 mph wind gusts in Chicago on Tuesday.
68 F. high at O'Hare Airport, 2 degrees away from a record. 25 degrees above average. Warmest since Nov. 13.

$2 billion. Estimated cost of last Friday's tornado outbreak (source: Eqecat).

Photo credit above: EF-4 strength tornadoes are capable of "scraping well-constructed brick/stone/timber homes down to bare foundation". Such was the case in Henryville, Indiana. Details: "In this aerial photo, people inspect a demolished home Saturday, March 3, 2012, near Henryville, Ind., after a tornado swept through the town Friday. A string of violent storms demolished small towns in Indiana and cut off rural communities in Kentucky as an early season tornado outbreak killed more than 30 people, and the death toll rose as daylight broke on Saturday's search for survivors.(AP Photo/Al Behrman)."

"According to some climate scientists, such earlier-than-normal outbreaks of tornadoes, which typically peak in the spring, will become the norm as the planet warms. "As spring moves up a week or two, tornado season will start in February instead of waiting for April," said climatologist Kevin Trenberth of the National Center for Atmospheric Research. - from an article below focused on climate change's possible impact on tornado season.

"The entire United States network of 160 radar sites, including Alaska, Hawaii, Puerto Rico and Guam will be upgraded by early 2013 at a cost of about $50 million." - from an article on "dual-polarization" Doppler radar upgrades underway at NWS sites around the USA; details below.

U.N. Says 2011 Disasters Were The Costliest In History, With A Minimum Pricetag Of $380 Billion. The Washington Post has more details: "The economic cost of disasters in 2011 was the highest in history — with a pricetag of at least $380 billion, mainly due to earthquakes in Japan and New Zealand, a U.N. envoy said Monday. Margareta Wahlstrom, the secretary-general’s special representative for disaster risk reduction, said the figure was two-thirds higher than the previous record in 2005 when Hurricane Katrina struck the southern United States. In addition to the earthquakes, Wahlstrom said major floods in Thailand and other countries caused extensive damage. “The main message is that this is an increasing — very rapidly increasing trend with increasing economic losses,” Wahlstrom said."

Going Fast. If you like snow you may want to get out there and roll around in it sooner, rather than later. There won't be much left by next weekend, except for northern Minnesota, Wisconsin, the U.P. of Michigan, the snow belts downwind of the Great Lakes, and northern New England. Map above courtesy of NOAA.

A Parallel Weather Universe? No significant snow close to home anytime soon, at least looking out 2 weeks (a little lake effect snow for the U.P. of Michigan). No, for substantial snow you have to drive to the panhandle of Oklahoma or Texas, where some 6-12" snowfall amounts are possible. 50+ here on Saturday, while north Texas digs out from a freak snowstorm. Go figure.

Seasonably Cool Through Friday, Then More April. We cool down today, temperatures still a few degrees above average Thursday annd Friday. I suspect we'll top 50 Saturday and Sunday, maybe climb close to 60 by the middle of next week. The ECMWF shoots the mercury above 70 by Wednesday of next week. That may be a bit extreme, but the ECMWF has been doing a pretty good job this "winter".

Daylight Saving Time This Weekend. Man, that was fast! We "spring forward" one hour late Saturday night (2 am Sunday morning). NASA has more than you ever wanted to know about DST here: "Benjamin Franklin is credited with the concept of Daylight Saving Time. The basic idea is to make the best use of daylight hours by shifting the clock forward in the Spring and backward in the Fall. Daylight Saving Time has been in use throughout much of the United States, Canada and Europe since World War I. In 1966, President Lyndon Johnson signed an act into law whereby Daylight Saving Time begins on the last Sunday of April and ends on the last Sunday of October each year. However, any State can opt out of Daylight Saving Time by passing a State law. Hawaii does not observe Daylight Saving Time and neither does Arizona (although the Navajo Nation, in northeastern Arizona, does). For many years, most of Indiana did not observe Daylight Saving Time with the exception of 10 counties. Beginning in 2006, all of Indiana now observes Daylight Saving Time. However, the state remains divided in two time zones. Seventy-four counties (including state capital Indianapolis) are in the Eastern Time Zone. The 18 remaining counties are in the Central Time Zone (see: Indiana Time Zones)."

The Advantages Of "Dual-Pol". The National Weather Service is retrofitting all NWS Doppler radars around the USA to be dual-polarization, sending out pulses of energy in the vertical, as well as the horizontal axis. This allows meteorologists to do a better job estimating raindrop/hailstone sizes, and also allows forecasters for the first time to see debris kicked up by tornadoes on the ground. Here is more, from the Facebook page of the Nashville Office of the NWS: "Here is an example of a TDS or Tornado Debris Signature indicated by our new Dual-Pol Radar. The four-panel display allows us to see many different radar variables at one time. In the upper left panel we have our traditional reflectivity, upper right is Storm Relative Velocity, lower left is Correlation Coefficient, and lower right is Differential Reflectivity. In order to detect a TDS we look for very low Correlation Coefficient values near the tornadic signature on Storm Relative Velocity, if reflectivity values are above 30 dBZ and Differential Reflectivity is low 0."

Coming Soon To A Weather Service Office Near You. More on the merits of "dual-polarization" Doppler Radar. Here's an excerpt of a story at abcnews4.com in Charleston: "Technology advances quickly. Take for instance, iPads or iPhones. On average the new model comes out every eight months to a year, making older models a bit outdated. Let's just say the same goes for weather forecasting. Twenty years is way past time to update. "The National Weather Service WSR 88-D radar for the Charleston area was commissioned in Grays, S.C., northern Jasper County in 1992," said Steve Taylor, a meteorologist with the Charleston office of the National Weather Service. The current radar output is serviceable and continues to detect rain, but a newer more advanced dual-polarization radar technology is available and will be installed later this year. "The entire United States network of 160 radar sites, including Alaska, Hawaii, Puerto Rico and Guam will be upgraded by early 2013 at a cost of about $50 million," Taylor said." Photo above courtesy of NOAA.

Close Encounter With A Kentucky Tornado. Hey, I'd be praying (out loud) too, if an EF-3 tornado was approaching my home. There's a reason why this YouTube clip has over 43,000 views. Details: "Dramatic video as a funnel cloud approaches a woman's home in Ezel, near West Liberty, Kentucky and she "prays" the tornado/funnel cloud away from her home."

Storm Chasers: "It Was A Very Fast Evolution." The story (and amazing video) from jconline.com: "Two Purdue University storm chasers watched Friday's deadly twister form and hit the ground in just four minutes. As Ph.D. students in the Severe Weather Research Group, Mallie Toth and Eric Robinson have chased many violent storms in recent years. But the tornado that tore through southern Indiana will be remembered for its speed and strength. The funnel cloud came right at them while they were parked on Indiana 135 between the towns of Salem and Palmyra in Washington County. "We were directly in the path," Toth said Saturday. "It was a very fast evolution."

Watch Out For Deadly Nighttime Tornadoes This Winter. Some interesting statistics and trends in this story from MNN, Mother Nature Network: "As recent tornado outbreaks around the country have shown, severe weather is getting a jump on the spring season. The main tornado season may still be weeks away, but the twisters of winter pack an extra threat. The odds of a killer tornado are greatest at night, and the shorter daylight hours of winter increase the chance of nighttime tornadoes. Nocturnal tornadoes are more than twice as likely to kill people than daytime tornadoes, researchers have found. So far, the largest tornado outbreak of the year — 45 twisters — came on Jan. 22. Feb. 24 was the second busiest day for severe weather of the year to date."

Photo credit above: "NIGHT SPIRALS: A graph showing the percentages of nocturnal tornadoes by state from 1950 to 2005. (Image: OurAmazingPlanet)."

Early Tornadoes Not Predictors For Future Twisters. The story from CNN and ozarksfirst.com: "When a powerful jet stream bringing in cold northern air collided with a large mass of warm, moist air from the south, the conditions were right for the tornadoes that have left at least 45 dead this week. Two powerful storm systems in the Midwest and South spawned the tornadoes that damaged and destroyed homes and businesses from Kansas to Ohio. There is not a defined tornado season like there is for hurricanes, but this year the first major tornadoes came earlier than usual. Last year, the most powerful tornadoes were not seen until April."

Severe Weather Preparedness Week In Illinois. Some good information from WREX-TV: "There are many indications that this could be an active - and early - severe weather season in Illinois. Severe weather has already impacted parts of Illinois and neighboring states. 2011 was a devastating year for tornadoes in the United States. There were more than 1700 tornadoes nationwide, including 59 killer tornadoes which claimed 550 lives. It was the deadliest year for tornadoes since 1925.

· Tornadoes are the most destructive storms that occur in Illinois. Being prepared for a tornado can save your life.

· A tornado watch means severe thunderstorms and tornadoes are possible in your area over the next few hours. Be prepared.
· A tornado warning means a tornado has been sighted by a trained storm spotter, or intense rotation that will likely produce a tornado has been detected by Doppler radar. Get to a place of safety immediately."

Weather Service Urges Radios For Storm Readiness. WLS-TV in Chicago has the story: "Despite the tornado sirens sounding in downstate Harrisburg Wednesday morning, a lot of people stayed asleep and did not hear them. According to advice from the National Weather Service, there is a simple way to make sure when that there is a severe weather alert, you get it. In recent years there have been major improvements in tornado forecasting allowing for earlier warning lead times. They now average 13 minutes, but when it comes to receiving those warnings, many people are still relying on 20th century technology."

Forecasters Will Be Able To Reliably Predict Where A Hurricane Will Be A Week Ahead Of Time. This may be a little optimistic, but there's little doubt that NHC is having very good luck (skill, really) predicting hurricane tracks, with significant improvement in accuracy every year. Predicting intensity of hurricanes is much more difficult. NJ.com has an interesting story: "CHARLESTON, S.C. — National Hurricane Center Director Bill Read said Monday that science will improve to the point where forecasters can reliably issue forecasts showing where a hurricane will be a week ahead of time. "We're two to five years from a seven-day forecast," Read told reporters while attending a conference with representatives of other federal agencies to discuss hurricane forecasting and warning. He noted the National Weather Service now issues regular daily weather forecasts a week out — but not yet for hurricanes."

The Inexact Science Of Snow Reporting. Yes, predicting snow, down to the inch for specific locations, is as much a black art as it is a science. The Aspen Times has an article that caught my eye, capturing some of the nuance (and hair-pulling difficulties) of forecasting snow: "VAIL, Colo. — When a ski resort that covers 5,289 acres — the largest in the United States — reports the snowfall that has occurred over the last 24 hours, there is and will always be areas of the mountain that don't match up to what's reported. Some areas might have less snow, and other areas might have more. In the case of last week's snow reporting debacle, in which Vail reported 12 inches the morning of Feb. 23 and later retracted that report and changed it to 2 inches, the reading of the mountain's snow measuring stake was simply inaccurate because high winds had blown in too much snow, the resort reported. Getting a snow measurement before 5 a.m., which is when the operator in the Vail Communications Center at the base of the mountain does the reading, can be tricky business. The situation last week was simply an anomaly, though, said Bob Norris, manager of Vail Mountain security. "

Photo credit above: "Vail ski patroller Jennifer Silva clears off the snow stake after confirming the snowfall reading from the stake at 7 a.m. for the past 24 hours Wednesday on Vail Mountain. Dominique Taylor / Vail Daily."

Thousands Flee In Australia Floods. MSNBC.com has the latest: "CANBERRA — Floods across eastern Australia forced more than 13,000 people to evacuate their homes on Tuesday after record-high summer rains drenched three states over the past week, swelling rivers and forcing dams to overflow. In the worst-hit state of New South Wales, authorities ordered 8,000 people to leave their homes in the inland city of Wagga Wagga, where flood waters were expected to breach an 11-metre levee and swamp houses and the main business district."

A North Carolina Lifeline Built On Shifting Sands. I've spent some time on the Outer Banks of North Carolina - gorgeous country, but very vulnerable to hurricanes. Those barrier islands and dunes were designed to migrate over time. Paving them over with roads and parking lots hasn't stopped that migration of sand, which becomes all too apparent every hurricane season (or even during winter with strong nor'easters). The New York Times has the story: "RODANTHE, N.C. — Last August, when Hurricane Irene sliced across the Outer Banks, it cut Highway 12, Hatteras Island’s lifeline, in two places. Engineers rushed to repair the damage, filling and repaving a washed-out stretch of roadway here and building a bridge over a newly formed inlet a few miles to the north. The road reopened on Oct. 11, to the cheers of anglers, would-be vacationers and the innkeepers, restaurateurs and merchants whose livelihoods had taken a huge blow. But the winds and waves that shape the coast were already gnawing at the new bridge."Photo above courtesy of NASA's Earth Observatory.

Photo Of The Day. Thanks to Tim Wright from Sauk Rapids for passing this one along - a beautiful example of lake effect snow showers and squalls. He writes: "My son Drew and I were just finishing up a long day of snowmobile riding in the late afternoon (5 pm) in my hometown of Solon Springs, Wisconsin when I took this photo on Sunday March 4. It is looking north on Lake St. Croix (where the St. Croix river begins) toward Lake Superior (appox 25 miles to the north). It was a pretty picture of the sun’s angle striking the side of the clouds that were continuously forming over the western end of Lake Superior that day creating continuous lake effect snow. You can see the moisture from the clouds with the naked eye better than my Iphone photo, but I thought I would share. I love the Star Tribune Blog!!"

Thanks Tim (and Drew). I'm genuinely amazed at the quality of photos you can get from today's smartphones. Keep up the great work with that iPhone! Good to have you as a loyal reader - I take nothing for granted. Thank you.

Paul's Links. Weather-Related Q&A.

1). Current Conditions From MesoWest. This is a good site that visualizes current weather, for the metro, Minnesota, or anywhere in the USA. Using a Google Map you can zoom in/out, pan, and call up various meteorological parameters like temps, highs, lows, precip, etc. Definitely worth a look.

2). Storm Reports From Ham Weather. Full disclosure: Ham Weather is a subsidiary of Media Logic LLC, but these maps are free to access for general consumers. This map shows NWS storm damage reports for the last 4 hours, 24 hours, or even a week's worth of storm reports (above). You can separate out tornado reports from flooding, high winds, hail, etc - and it's interactive. Hover your cursor over the dot and you pull up more details. I'm biased, but it's pretty cool.

3). National Weather Service Public Information Statements. This is a handy site to pull up the latest snowfall/rainfall reports for Minnesota and Wisconsin, as well as storm report details.

4). National Weather Service Forecast Discussions. This specific link is more technical, but if you want to know what NWS meteorologists in Chanhassen (and Duluth) are really thinking, and why the NWS forecast is what it is, check this sight for more insight into the how's and why's of the weather floating overhead.

Long Career From Long-Range Forecasts. TVNewsCheck.com takes a look at the distinguished TV career of meteorologist Dick Goddard in Cleveland: "In 1961, a young Dick Goddard, with five years of experience as a meteorologist for the weather bureau at the Akron-Canton Airport and zero experience in television, made his debut on KYW, then the Westinghouse NBC affiliate in Cleveland. To some, the idea of a weather expert seemed a bit much. On Goddard’s debut newscast, the sports anchor wryly alerted viewers: “Dick Goddard, the first meteorologist on Cleveland television, will be here with his first rumor in two minutes.” That debut turned into history. last year Goddard celebrated 50 years on television, most of it at Cleveland’s Local TV LLC Fox affiliate, WJW. The city named a street in his honor. In Cleveland, he’s as synonymous with weather as rock salt." Photo: cleveland.com.

Earthquake Shakes KGO-TV During Morning Newscast. TVSpy.com has the story (and video): "Most San Francisco residents were asleep yesterday when a pair of earthquakes struck the Bay Area around 5:30 a.m. But Kristen Sze and Eric Thomas, the co-anchors of the early morning newscast on KGO, were wide awake. “I believe we’re feeling an earthquake right now,” Sze said, interrupting a report on an education rally (video above). “In fact, a pretty big earthquake. The studio is shaking.” “Good jolt, lasted for a few seconds,” Thomas responded. “In fact, it might have felt like what appeared to be two jolts, a smaller one and then a larger one. The lights were shaking pretty good in here.”

As New iPad Debut Nears, Some See Decline Of PC's. An article from The New York Times (subscription required): "The chief executive of Apple, Timothy D. Cook, has a prediction: the day will come when tablet devices like the Apple iPad outsell traditional personal computers. His forecast has backing from a growing number of analysts and veteran technology industry executives, who contend that the torrid growth rates of the iPad, combined with tablet competition from the likes of Amazon.com and Microsoft, make a changing of the guard a question of when, not if. " Photo: ipad3interesting.com.

Ford Teams With Facebook To Create "Social" Car. Hey, I'm all for social media and staying connected, even when I'm on vacation, spending quality time in the bathroom, sleeping, and (of course!) driving. Because when I'm hurtling down I-394 I absolutely want to know what my Facebook friends are thinking/saying. Gizmag.com has the horrifying details: "Automakers have begun slowly integrating social networking into vehicles via advanced infotainment systems that provide voice-activated social functions. In a recent collaboration with Facebook called "Hackathon," Ford gave the world a glimpse of what in-car social networking 2.0 might look like. It's scary and intriguing at the same time."

The $500,000 788 BHP Brabus Bullit Stealth Coupe - The Ultimate Sleeper. Politically incorrect? Absolutely. Gizmag.com has more details: "It's the ultimate sleeper! Brabus' matte-black stealth coupe has no outward pizzazz whatsoever (at least to the untrained eye), but with a 788 bhp twin-turbo V12 under the hood, it can hit 100 km/h in 3.7 seconds, 200 km/h in 9.8 seconds, 300 km/h (186 mph) in 23.8 seconds on its way to a top speed of more than 370 km/h (230 mph)."

"Supercell". Thanks to the Wichita office of the National Weather Service for sharing this amazing image.

Doppler Radar Upgrade

160 National Weather Service U.S. Doppler radars are getting an upgrade. Dual-Polarization hardware and software will allow not only push out a horizontal pulse of energy, but a vertical wave. Who cares?

Todd Krause, from the local NWS office, explained why this matters in an e-mail Tuesday. "The purpose of dual pol is to get a better handle on the hydrometeors, which will help with rainfall estimates, hail, and freezing/frozen precipitation." Tornadoes are usually much too small to show up on Doppler - we look for rapidly rotating parent thunderstorms, called "supercells", that often go on to spawn large hail and twisters. With "Dual-Pol", if a tornado is on the ground within 50-75 miles of Chanhassen, radar may be able to see the "debris ball", the actual debris being kicked up by a tornado on the ground. Over time this may result in fewer (rotation-based) false alarms. Here at MSP the upgrade is scheduled for September, Krause told me.

A cooler front kicks up a rain shower or or two today, but 50s return over the weekend. A little rain is possible late Sunday, mainly over Wisconsin. The ECMWF (European) model hints at 60s, even 70F the middle of next week. May-like? Yep.

Climate Stories....

Climate Change May Make Early Tornadoes The Norm: Scientists. The story from timescolonist.com: "According to some climate scientists, such earlier-than-normal outbreaks of tornadoes, which typically peak in the spring, will become the norm as the planet warms. "As spring moves up a week or two, tornado season will start in February instead of waiting for April," said climatologist Kevin Trenberth of the National Center for Atmospheric Research. Whether climate change will also affect the frequency or severity of tornadoes, however, remains an open question, and one that has received little study. "There are only a handful of papers, even to this day," said atmospheric scientist Robert Trapp of Purdue University, who led a pioneering 2007 study of tornadoes and climate change." Photo: AP.

NASA Finds Thickest Part Of Ice Cap Melting Faster. The story from PR-USA.net: "A new NASA study revealed that the oldest and thickest Arctic sea ice is disappearing at a faster rate than the younger and thinner ice at the edges of the Arctic Ocean's floating ice cap. The thicker ice, known as multi-year ice, survives through the cyclical summer melt season, when young ice that has formed over winter just as quickly melts again. The rapid disappearance of older ice makes Arctic sea ice even more vulnerable to further decline in the summer, said Joey Comiso, senior scientist at NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, Md., and author of the study, which was recently published in Journal of Climate. The new research takes a closer look at how multi-year ice, ice that has made it through at least two summers, has diminished with each passing winter over the last three decades. Multi-year ice "extent" – which includes all areas of the Arctic Ocean where multi-year ice covers at least 15 percent of the ocean surface – is diminishing at a rate of -15.1 percent per decade, the study found." Photo credit: NASA.

GM Funding Of Climate Change - Denying Heartland Institute Creates Outrage With Environmentalists. The story from The Huffington Post: "The recent disclosure that General Motors' charitable arm has funded a think tank skeptical of climate change fueled an outcry among environmentalists. Now, an environmental group says it has collected 10,000 signatures urging the automaker to stop funding the Chicago-based Heartland Institute. Internal documents leaked in February show that the General Motors Foundation -- which the automaker says is funded separately from business operations -- donated to the institute $15,000 in both 2010 and 2011, with another $15,00 expected in 2012." Photo courtesy of AP.

Electric Cars And The Liberal War With Science. The Washington Post has more: "President Obama boasted at a United Auto Workers conference last week that General Motors was back in business, producing cutting-edge vehicles like the plug-in electric Chevrolet Volt. He even promised to buy one when his time in office ends “five years from now.” Whoops! Just three days later, GM announced that it would suspend Volt production for five weeks this spring, idling 1,300 workers at a Hamtramck, Mich., factory. Alas, Obama’s endorsements notwithstanding, there’s not much of a market for this little bitty car, at least not at the price of almost $32,000 — after a $7,500 federal tax rebate." Photo credit: treehugger.com.

Conservative White Men Lead Climate-Change Deniers. The story from the Orange County Register: "Conservative white men are almost twice as likely as other U.S. adults to say that man is not the primary cause of global warming, according to an analysis of Gallup polling data by sociologists Riley E. Dunlap and Aaron M. McCright called, "Cool dudes: The denial of climate change among conservative white males in the United States." I came across the 2011 study while researching my story, "Ideology, not facts, often drives political beliefs," It explores how voters from both major parties arrive at their positions not based on science so much as predilections."

Climate Change Is A Geo-Political "Threat Multiplier", UK Climate Envoy Says. The story from KPCC Radio: "A senior official in the British Royal Navy came to Southern California last week with a message about how climate change can affect political stability. Rear Admiral Neil Morisetti is climate and energy security envoy for the United Kingdom. He said most people think about a warming climate solely as an environmental problem. “We haven't really in the past thought of it as a potential security issue,” Morisetti said. But he added that he observes that changing. He's traveling with a counterpart from the U.S. Navy to colleges and military bases to make the case that global warming deserves attention as a military and political issue. Climate change, he said, “can act as a threat multiplier in those parts of the world where tree's already stresses — food, water, health, and demographic challenges, often in countries where governments don't have the capacity and resilience to look after their citizens. And it can act as a catalyst for conflict and therefore increase the risk of instability.”

Photo credit above: "Rear Admiral Neil Morisetti, the UK's special envoy for climate and energy security, with Nancy Sutley, chair of the Council on Environmental Quality. ECSP/Flickr."

Ocean Renewable Power Company To Install Maine Tidal Energy System. Details from Huffington Post: "PORTLAND, Maine (AP) — With its federal license in hand, a Maine-based tidal energy company is ready to install its underwater power system for the first time on the floor of the ocean. Ocean Renewable Power Co. aims to begin installation of its first grid-connected power unit in mid-March at a 60-acre site in Cobscook Bay at the nation's easternmost tip. The first unit capable of powering 20 to 25 homes will be hooked up to the grid this summer, and four more units will be installed next year at a total cost of $21 million for the project, said Chris Sauer, president and chief executive officer of the Portland-based company." Photo above: inhabitat.com.

March 6: Calendar Says March, Maps Look Like Mid April

2012-03-05T21:10:00.000-08:00

2" snow on the ground as of Monday evening in the Twin Cities. 9" snow on the ground last year at this time, March 5, 2011.

50 F. predicted high for today in the Twin Cities. Upper 50s possible in southern MN (where there is little snow to cool the air from below).

71 F. predicted high for March 17 (GFS).

1.88" rain predicted between March 16-21.

Another Sign Of Spring? The 39th Annual Auto Show kicks off at the Minneapolis Convention Center on Thursday, and continues through March 18. Even if you're just going to tire-kick and stretch you legs, it's a good excuse to turn off the tube, disconnect your Facebook account, and check out some new wheels.

"In my career I have never seen this many tornadoes or this many fatalities," said Joshua Wurman, the lead tornado researcher and president of the Center for Severe Weather Research." - from a Huffington Post article on last Friday's historic tornado outbreak below.

"The most prolific 5-day period of tornado activity on record for so early in the year?" - story below on Friday's extreme tornado outbreak and whether climate change was a factor.

Photo credit above: "Harrison residents work to salvage from their residences on Monday, March 5, 2012, after an F-3 tornado touched down in the waterfront Chattanooga, Tenn., suburb on Friday, March 2. (AP Photo/Chattanooga Times Free Press, Dan Henry)."

"Insured losses due to thunderstorms and tornadoes in the U.S. in 2011 dollars. Data and image from Property Claims Service, Munich Re." Full story below from Think Progress.

An Unwavering Spirit. You have to admire the residents of Henryville, Indiana. EF-4 tornado on a Friday, 4" snow on a Monday, and yet survivors are still determined to pick up the pieces, start over, rebuild their American Dream. I can't even begin to imagine what these people must be feeling right now.

Tornado Forecasts Saved Countless Lives. USA Today has a good article highlighting the countless lives saved by NWS warnings and local TV broadcasters providing continuous coverage: "HENRYVILLE, Ind. – At the 103-year-old dream home on a hill that Roger Ledbetter had restored, Sunday was burial day. The house had been knocked off its foundation and ruined by killer twisters. A neighbor worked a backhoe to carve open a grave for three of Ledbetter's seven horses, so badly injured they had to be put down. Shep the dog had already been buried. A search was underway for the family cat, Miss Beasley. Yet for all the tears and tragedy that weather delivered along the miles of winding country road here, Ledbetter says, it could have been far worse." Graphic above courtesy of NOAA and USA Today.

Southern Indiana EF-4 Tornado Was On The Ground 49 Miles. From the Louisville, Kentucky office of the National Weather Service: "The red track is the EF-4 tornado; 49 miles, from 2:50 pm EST to 3:39 pm EST."

Warm Winter Helped Fuel Tornado Outbreak. More details from USA Today: "The USA's freakishly warm winter may have played a role in the ferocity of last week's early-season tornado outbreaks. "This year's unusually mild winter has led to ocean temperatures across the Gulf of Mexico that are approximately 1 degrees C (1.8 degrees F) above average," says meteorologist Jeff Masters of the Weather Underground. This places it among the top ten warmest values on record for this time of year, going back to the 1800s, he says. "Friday's tornado outbreak was fueled, in part, by unusually warm, moist air flowing north from the Gulf of Mexico due to the high water temperatures there," Masters says."

Photo credit above: Butch Dill, AP and USA Today.

Global Warming Will Bring Violent Storms And Tornadoes, NASA Predicts. This scientific screed, from those tree-hugging, left-leaning, Al-Gore-loving rocket scientists over at NASA, published this way back in 2007. Might be worth another look, considering the extreme tornado count (and intensities) of the last few years. Here's an excerpt from the article at Science Daily: "NASA scientists have developed a new climate model that indicates that the most violent severe storms and tornadoes may become more common as Earth's climate warms. Previous climate model studies have shown that heavy rainstorms will be more common in a warmer climate, but few global models have attempted to simulate the strength of updrafts in these storms. The model developed at NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies by researchers Tony Del Genio, Mao-Sung Yao, and Jeff Jonas is the first to successfully simulate the observed difference in strength between land and ocean storms and is the first to estimate how the strength will change in a warming climate, including "severe thunderstorms" that also occur with significant wind shear and produce damaging winds at the ground." Photo above: NOAA NSSL.

How Local TV Stations Covered March 3 Tornadoes. Al Tomkins has some good information at aimfortheheart.com: "I monitored live coverage from Louisville, Nashville, Lexington, Evansville, Paducah, Huntsville and Birmingham as storms roared through the country’s midsection Friday February 2, 2012. I have no doubt that local TV and radio along with cable and network broadcasters saved lives. The coverage was simply remarkable. While I watched online, I turned on my screen-capture program so I could share some clips with you. Consider this a sampling, not an exhaustive roundup. WSMV in Nashville was pounded by a hailstorm as a big cell passed right over the station on Knob Hill. The hail was so strong that the sound of it pinging off the roof overwhelmed the weathercaster’s voice on the air. The station cleared the studio but the warnings went on despite it all."

Will Tornado Season Be As Bad As Last Year? Meteorologist Paul Yeager has some observations and predictions at Huffington Post: "Frequent and intense tornado outbreaks resulted in 552 tornado-related deaths in 2011, the second deadliest year on record, from 1,709 tornadoes. The over three dozen of tornado-related deaths in the past week, along with 165 preliminary reports of tornadoes, is raising fears that this will be another devastating year for tornadoes. Overall atmospheric conditions in the coming months will not be as conducive for tornadoes as they were last year -- but an active season is a possibility. It was the combination of unseasonably warm air in the southern part of the country, cooler-than-normal air in the northern tier of the country, and an active spring and early summer storm track fueled by an ongoing La Niña that set the stage for the devastating season last year. These are factors that were anticipated by forecasters."

Kentucky Statewide Tornado Drill Scheduled For Today Cancelled. More from NOAA:

...KENTUCKY TORNADO DRILL SCHEDULED FOR TUESDAY MARCH 6 HAS BEEN
POSTPONED....SEVERE WEATHER AWARENESS CAMPAIGNS FOR OUR REGION...
EACH MARCH STATEWIDE SEVERE WEATHER CAMPAIGNS ARE HELD IN OUR REGION
TO RAISE THE PUBLIC`S AWARENESS OF THE THREAT SEVERE WEATHER EVENTS
CAN HAVE ON OUR LIVES...AND TO EDUCATE AND PREPARE EVERYONE FOR
TORNADOES...LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING THUNDERSTORM WINDS AND FLASH
FLOODING. THESE EVENTS INCREASE IN FREQUENCY AND SOMETIMES
MAGNITUDE IN THE EARLY SPRING. APRIL AND MAY ARE OUR PEAK MONTHS
FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. THE SEVERE WEATHER PREPAREDNESS
CAMPAIGNS WILL PROVIDE A FOCUSED EFFORT TO BETTER PREPARE EVERYONE
FOR THE UPCOMING SEVERE WEATHER SEASON. A MAJOR PART OF EACH
STATEWIDE CAMPAIGN IS THE TORNADO DRILL. THE TORNADO DRILL IS A
TIME THAT EVERYONE...INCLUDING PEOPLE AT HOME...BUSINESSES...
HOSPITALS AND SCHOOLS SHOULD EXECUTE THEIR TORNADO PLANS OF ACTION
TO ENSURE TIMELY AND PROPER ACTION DURING AN ACTUAL TORNADO.

FEMA Activates Regional Offices In Wake Of Severe Storms. More information from gsnmagazine.com: "President Obama and Secretary of Homeland Security Janet Napolitano called the governors of states hard hit by tornadoes the week of Feb. 27 to offer condolences and help, as FEMA activated regional offices in relief support in the affected areas. An outbreak of at least 74 tornadoes in the mid west and south killed 39 people in 10 states during the week. Kentucky, with 21 fatalities and Indiana with 13 fatalities, were the hardest hit. Ohio, Alabama and Georgia also suffered fatalities. Kentucky Governor Steve Beshear asked for federal disaster relief on March 4."

What March? When I say the maps look more like April I'm not exaggerating. Here is the extended GFS Outlook from March 13-21. Granted, I wouldn't sell the farm based on a 1-2 week outlook, but it usually does a pretty good job spotting overall trends. In this case we've had a few days/runs in a row with the GFS pulling warm, Gulf air northward, with highs topping 60 between March 15 to about the 18th, when the mercury could even rise above 70. It's too early to talk about severe weather, but if (in fact) we do see 60s and 70s, with dew points reaching the 50s, I wouldn't be surprised to see an early round of March T-storms in here by the third week of March. The GFS also prints out 1.88" rain (warm enough aloft for all rain at this point) between March 16-21. Hope that forecast verifies - we still have some serious catching up to do in the moisture department.

Arctic Oscillation: Positive Phase. As has been the case most of the winter, the Arctic Oscillation is forecast to remain strongly positive through the 3rd week of March, meaning unusually strong west winds howling above North America, and a small chance of (bitter/subzero) air penetrating southward into the Lower 40 States. Graphic courtesy of policlimate.com.

Flood Threat Forces Mass Evacuation Of Wagga Wagga. An update on severe flooding from The Australian: "A MASS evacuation was under way in Wagga Wagga last night after new forecasts that the Murrumbidgee River would breach the southern NSW city's levee system. The shock warning came at 9.30pm, only a few hours after the State Emergency Service had dismissed rumours sweeping through Wagga Wagga that the rapidly rising river level could go as high as 11m, well above the 10.7m levee height. The inundation of Wagga Wagga's CBD would cause the flood damages bill -- estimated earlier yesterday by the National Farmers Federation at much more than $1 billion -- to blow out further."

Photo credit above: "The flooded Murrumbidgee River near the NSW town of Wagga Wagga. Picture: Stuart McEvoy Source: The Australian."

Paul's Links. "Bookmark-Worthy" URL's and Links.

1). Weekly Precipitation Across The USA. Here's a useful map from WSI's "Intellicast" that shows NWS Doppler Radar rainfall estimates from coast to coast.

2). Interactive USA Records. O.K. Here's a remarkable site - Ham Weather, one of our family of companies within the Media Logic Group. I'm a little biased, but we have some amazing developers who are experts at parsing and visualizing weather data. You can track records (highs, lows, snowfall, precipitation, etc) for the last day, the last week - and you'll see other useful maps when you click on this site. The best part: absolutely free...and no ads either!

3). Current Conditions - Minnesota "Hourlies". To be able to predict the weather you need to know what's happening right now, in Minnesota, and nationwide (worldwide if you want to look beyond 3 days or so). NOAA has a great site that tracks weather at the top of every hour for scores of towns around Minnesota and nearby states. Most of these are from nearby airports, some manned, some automated "ASOS" sites. Hit refresh on your browser for the latest "obs".

4). Current USA Temperatures. If you want to check out current temps, barometric pressure and cloudcover for the nation check out the very latest conditions, courtesy of coolwx.com.

5). State Data For All 50 States. This is a great site, data available from NOAA in text or graphical form, for any state in the nation.

"Ask Paul". Weather-related Q&A:

Hi Paul –

"We’ve heard a lot about the importance of early warning when a tornado hits over the last several weeks and was wondering if you could get us any advice on which apps are best for our android phone? Thanks for any help you can give us."

Tom and Jenny Gamble

Dear Tom and Jenny,

At one point I was walking around with an iPhone and a Droid phone. My wife thought I was nuts (she's right) and cut off my Android data plan, so (in all honesty) I'm not quite as up on Android as I am about IOS and iPhone apps. That said, I did some research and found what I believe to be some of the best Android weather apps: RadarScope (for tracking high-res NWS Doppler Radars around the USA, and TorWarn, which sends out watches/warnings when the NWS pulls the trigger for your particular town. In addition, I've included 2 (free) apps that one of my companies created for Polaris, targeting snowmobilers and motorcycle enthusiasts who need personalized weather for their rides.

RadarScope. It's a little bit spendy (one time charge of $9.99) but once you see how well it operates you'll understand why I keep singing it's praises. You can see various Doppler products, warning polygons, even read the full text of NWS warnings and watches. For more information click here.

TorWarn Weather Alerts. I haven't used this personally, but I see some pretty good reviews and ratings in the Android Market. It's free (can't go wrong with that), and certainly worth a try. From the company: "With TorWarn you will have access to Tornado Warnings, Severe Thunderstorm Warnings, Tornado Watches, and Severe Thunderstorm Watches as soon as they become available. This application Uploads your position to our server which then searches the National Weather Service instantly for Warnings / Watches / Alerts in your area. If you are in a Warning or Watch your phone will be alerted and you can take the necessary actions to protect life and property."

Polaris Snow Trails. Full disclosure: one of my companies, Ham Weather, created this fine app (which works on Android and IOS/Apple smartphones). If you're a snowmobiler (tough season, I know...sorry) you need this app. Not only does it have updated snowfall amounts around the USA, it has GPS-specific snowfall predictions for any trail in the USA. And (wait for it), you can see where you are on any and all snowmobile trails in the USA, complete with nearby restaurants, hotels and bars. Best of all, it's free. More from Polaris: "Created by the devoted snow enthusiasts at Polaris, Polaris Snow Trails is a must-have app for the snowmobile rider. With this app, everything you need for your snowmobile adventures is only the touch of your finger away."

Included features:
- display your current location
- view maps of US snowmobile trails
- view snow cover, weather conditions and advisories for any location
- find and contact Polaris dealers
- local services search with integrated direct dialing, including gas stations, restaurants, and lodging
- save waypoints along your route
- track and save multiple snowmobile routes
- automatic map caching so maps can still be viewed while on the trail and outside of data coverage areas*
- share saved routes to Twitter or Facebook
- export route data in GPX or CSV format

Victory Rides. If you're a biker or motorcycle enthusiast you should check out this (free) app, available for Android or iPhones. Call up "layers" of weather data for your town, your state, your ride, including radar, temperatures and winds. You can even save and share your favorite rides. Full disclosure: we created this app for Polaris as well. It's free - with no ad clutter to get in your way.

Redheads Feel A Different Kind Of Pain. Yes, we always new fiery redheads were different, right? ScienceNordic.com has the head-scratching details: "An increasing number of studies show that redheads are differently constituted in terms of pain perception and body reactions. Research reveals that redheads:

are more sensitive to cold
are less responsive to subcutaneously administered anaesthetics [under the skin]
suffer more from toothaches and are more frightened of dentists
are at greater risk of developing sclerosis and endometriosis"

Photo credit above: "Redheads have a reputation for being feistier than others, and there may be some truth in this. Scientists are gradually piecing together a picture which seems to indicate that redheads are constituted differently to other people. (Photo: schmidt-z)."

World's Worst Tourists: Americans Top List In New Survey. Why am I not shocked. Yes, you can always tell the American in the international crowd: tennis shoes (sneakers) and jeans, shirt tucked out, maybe a fanny pack for good measure. Huffington Post has the list no country wants to be #1 on: "It seems Americans might just be their own worst enemy when it comes to traveling abroad. That is, according to the findings of a new survey seeking to uncover the world's worst tourists, USA Today reports. Carried out by LivingSocial and Mandala Research, the survey polled 5,600 respondents from five countries, explains Biz Journal. Not only did Americans rank their own countrymen as the worst tourists; Australians and Canadians also ranked U.S. number one. Across the pond, the Irish singled out the British, while the Brits fingered Germans for their rude behavior, calling them the world's worst." Photo credit above: amazingdata.com.

Using Facebook While Driving More Dangerous Than Drinking, Texting or Using Marijuana. The story from gizmag.com: "New research released today by the Institute of Advanced Motorists in the UK doesn't tell us much we didn't know before, but it does put it in context. The smartphone is headed for ubiquitous usage, and the wonderful real-time communications and information services it offers are making the roads considerably LESS safe."

Maps Look Like April

Talk about a meteorological disconnect. The calendar insists that it's March 6. Then why do the weather maps look like something out of mid-April? Factoring in warmth (4th warmest meteorological winter) and meager snowfall rations (22" so far) it's been the easiest, tamest winter for the Twin Cities in 81 years. Will it snow again? Count on it. But snow in late March or April is a fleeting affair, melting within 24 hours, give or take. I strongly suspect the worst of winter, a Kansas City winter, is behind us.

Dwindling snow on the ground may prevent us from seeing mid-50s today, but we should easily hit 50, the average high for April 1. The GFS is hinting at 60s from March 16-20, the atmosphere not even close to being cold enough for snow anytime soon. Our fast-forward spring limps on.

SPC now reports 128 (preliminary) tornadoes during last Friday's historic tornado outbreak. Was climate change a factor? We don't know, but some climate scientists suspect it may have been one of many factors, including La Nina, which often energizes/increases jet stream winds over the nation's midsection this time of year. Dr. Jeff Masters reports water temperatures in the Gulf of Mexico 2 degrees above average, symptoms of a mild winter. Record heat in the southeast fueled huge temperature contrasts last week, setting the stage for a horrific May-like tornado outbreak.

* GFS forecast map above valid March 20. At a glance it looks more like a jet stream configuration for April 20.

2011 Tornadoes: Is Climate Change To Blame For Devastating Weather? Here's an update from Huffington Post: "The tornadoes that tore through the southeast United States on Wednesday were cumulatively the deadliest twister disaster since 1932, with the death toll at 318 people and still rising. "In my career I have never seen this many tornadoes or this many fatalities," said Joshua Wurman, the lead tornado researcher and president of the Center for Severe Weather Research. He is more widely known for his role as the scientist on the Discovery Channel's "Storm Chasers" show. April has already shattered the benchmark for the number of tornadoes in a single month by a long shot. Meteorologists estimate that close to 600 tornadoes have formed thus far in April. That's nearly four times the average of 160, and twice the amount of the previous April record, 267 twisters in 1974." Photo courtesy of AP.

Wacky Winter Weather May Be Global Weirding. Richard Wiles has the story at Climate Central: "Its been a weird wacky winter across most of the country, with crazy hot temperatures smashing hundreds of records, and snow droughts in large swaths of the northeast, mid-Atlantic, the California Sierra, Colorado and Utah. Is this climate change? Global warming? Perhaps global weirding? “Too soon to tell” is what my staff scientists and PhDs tell me. “You can’t cry global warming every time you have a warm year” Really? What do you call it then? Or maybe I should ask, when? When will we have enough goofy weather in a row so that we can start calling it climate change? I guess they’ll get back to me on that one. “Limitations with the climate models, blah, blah, blah . . . “ Luckily, we have more information than just the models (don’t get me wrong, we love climate models here at Climate Central; they just have their limits, like anything else with a million zillion moving parts)."

Tornadoes, Extreme Weather And Climate Change, Revisited. The story from Think Progress: "The unexpectedly fierce and fast tornado outbreak so early in the season has folks asking again about a possible link to climate change. Climatologist Dr. Kevin Trenberth emailed me that, because of climate change, “there is every expectation that the [tornado] season will move up in time. The warm winter in the US is perhaps an indicator of the nature of the changes to be expected.” The former head of the Climate Analysis Section of the National Center for Atmospheric Research stands by his 2011 statement, “It is irresponsible not to mention climate change in stories that presume to say something about why all these storms and tornadoes are happening.”

Paying More Attention To Global Weather. An interesting perspective from Huffington Post: "Are the several tornadoes that recently hit the United States an indication of what is to come? Perhaps 2012 will make the hurricanes, tornadoes, earthquakes, torrential rains, wildfires, and the record-breaking heat wave of 2011 seem ordinary. Were all the extreme weather occurrences of last year a product of global warming or just a coincidental string of events? I'm not a scientist but my interest in global warming has led me to do extensive research and meet with leading climatologists doing research in ozone depletion. Thus, I've become convinced that further investigation into global weather patterns could allow us to make better-informed predictions that ultimately save lives."

Global Warming: A Communist Plot? Of course it is! The Business Spectator has the story: “For the extreme left it [the existence of climate change] provides the opportunity to do what they've always wanted to do, to sort of de-industrialise the western world. You know the collapse of communism was a disaster for the left...and really they embraced environmentalism as their new religion.” – Nick Minchin, Liberal Senator and former Australian Government Minister."

"I happen to think carbon dioxide re-radiates energy within the infrared spectrum. I also believe combustion of a million years of fossilised carbon within the space of a year, as well as deforestation of large tracts of the world’s forests, is likely to lead to a material increase in carbon dioxide within the atmosphere. All other things being equal, I think this is likely to lead the Earth’s atmosphere to trap greater amounts of the sun’s energy, leading to an increase in global temperature. I also think that if we make emitting carbon dioxide more expensive and harder to do, we’ll reduce the amount of carbon dioxide we emit and moderate temperature rises."

Study Finds Climate Change Link To Region's Recent Wild Weather. The story from recordonline.com: "A new report by an environmental advocacy group shows our region has been particularly vulnerable to extreme weather events — driven by what it believes is climate change. The report, compiled by Environment New York Research and Policy Center, shows our nook of the Northeast has had a high number of federal disaster declarations since 2006. Numbers from the Federal Emergency Management Agency show Ulster County has had six weather-related federal disaster declarations in the last five years, while Orange County has had five and Sullivan County, four. "Catskill, Hudson Valley, and Mohawk River Valley residents have endured extreme weather beyond the usual cold winters during the last five years," David VanLuven, director of the Center, said in a statement."

Photo credit above: “People are concerned” about climate change and want to do something about it, says Patrick Gallagher of Gallagher Solar Thermal in Warwick. He's been selling more solar panels, like those behind him.MICHELE HASKELL/Times Herald-Record."

Climate Change Made The Drought Worse, Scientists Say. Mysanantonio.com has more details: "Several scientists at NASA and the state climatologist say the record-setting heat and drought of last summer in Texas was made worse by climate change. More than just providing bragging rights that Texas now holds the record for hottest summer ever recorded in the United States, that conclusion adds another layer of uncertainty for water planners. James Hansen of the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies and Columbia University's Earth Institute titled his still unpublished climate analysis, “Perceptions of Climate Change: The New Climate Dice.” “We conclude that extreme heat waves, such as that in Texas and Oklahoma in 2011 and Moscow in 2010, were ‘caused' by global warming, because their likelihood was negligible prior to the recent rapid global warming,” he wrote in the paper that is still undergoing peer review."

Photo credit above: "Bret Barnett, who owns property along the Guadalupe River, walks in late February in an area upstream from Canyon Lake where the river stopped flowing last year. Photo: TOM REEL, San Antonio Express-News / San Antonio Express-News."

In Climate Wars, Radicalization Of Researchers Brings Risks. The Washington Post has the story: "Everybody talks about the weather, Mark Twain famously wrote, but nobody does anything about it. Many climate researchers are no longer following Twain’s adage, noted Michael McPhaden, president of the American Geophysical Union. “Scientists today, they don’t just want to talk about it. They want to do something about it,” he said in an interview. “We’re the trustees of information which, in many ways, is of critical benefit to society. Some researchers are taking on a greater public-advocacy role to confront what many of them consider an existential crisis."

March 5: Maps Look Like April (more on Friday's deadly tornado outbreak)

2012-03-04T20:03:00.000-08:00

117. Preliminary number of confirmed tornadoes that touched down last Friday. Source: NOAA's SPC.
Photo credit above: "Unidentified women search through debris of Ted and Brenda Tolbert's Holton, Ind. home Sunday, March 4, 2012. A string of violent storms scratched away small towns in Indiana and cut off rural communities in Kentucky as an early-season tornado outbreak killed at least 37 people on Saturday. The Tolberts are in the hospital after their house fell on them during the storms. (AP Photo/Ernest Coleman)."

219 miles. Path-length of March 18, 1925 "Tri-State Tornado", that killed 695 people in Missouri, Illinois and Indiana. Details below.

12,000. Average number of influenza (flu) deaths every year in the USA. So far this winter: "a few hundred". Source: New York Times. Details below. Photo credit: AP Photo/Odessa American, Heather Leiphart.

"Last month the International Energy Agency (hardly an alarmist body of scientists) announced a record annual increase in atmospheric carbon and further warned that without bold action in the next five years, the Earth's temperature will push beyond the 2 degrees Celsius that climate scientists consider an ominous tipping point." - from a story at kentucky.com.

Winter's Last Stand Up North? Broadcast Weather meteorologist Todd Nelson snapped this photo between Two Harbors and Goosebury Falls Sunday, a light snow falling on show-covered highways - plenty of slick spots. Much of the snow will be gone from the Twin Cities metro on south by Tuesday, snow lingering a few more weeks up north, where a cool 1 to 2 feet of snow is on the ground.

Easiest Winter In 81 Years. You have to go back to the Winter of 1930-31 to find a Twin Cities winter so warm (and snow-free). As you can see from MN State Climate data above this is the 4th warmest meteorological winter on record. 2001-2002 was warmer, but 66" snow fell. To find a comparable winter of unusual warmth AND lack of snow you have to go back to 1930-31 snowfall records (see graph below, data from the MN State Climate Office).

Crocus Alert. Yes, spring is coming early to much of the USA, including Lancaster, Pennsylvania, where Joan Kruhoeffer snapped this photo of emerging crocus in her garden.

Winter: Missing In Action. The 500mb map above (GFS) is valid March 20. Funny, it looks like something out of April or early May, the main core of jet stream winds lifting into southern Canada. This implies 50s, even a few 60s by mid March. Our fast-forward spring rolls on...

Mind-Numbing Numbers. As of midday Sunday the tornado count from Friday's (unusual) early-season outbreak was up to 117, according to SPC. The most tornadoes in a 24 hour period? April 3-4, 1974, when 148 tornadoes touched down on 13 states.

* EverythingWX has a list of all the confirmed tornadoes from last Friday.

The 1925 Tornado Was Worse, But That's Little Comfort To People In Harrisburg. Here's an insightful article about historical perspective and the recent (devastating) tornado that hit Harrisburg, Illinois, from the Evansville Courier and Press: "In Illinois, the tornado of March 18, 1925, is the one to which all others are compared. Known as the Tri-State Tornado, this twister traveled 219 miles from near Ellington, Mo., across Southern Illinois to near Princeton, Ind. A total of 695 people were killed across the three states with more than 2,000 injured. In Illinois alone — during the first 120 mile stretch of the storm's path — 541 people lost their lives. The fact that the Tri-State Tornado of 1925 remains the single most devastating storm in Illinois history is no comfort to the families in Harrisburg, Ill., who lost a loved one in Wednesday's EF-4 tornado. For the 100 or more injured in the storm, their scars will be just as painful, just as deep and will last just as long as those who survived the '25 twister."

Photo credit above: "Looking east from Brady Street where five of six people were killed by a tornado in Harrisburg, Illinois, Thursday, March 1, 2012. (Abel Uribe/Chicago Tribune/MCT)."

* for more on the Tri-State Tornado of 1925, click here - data courtesy of Wikipedia.

The Tornado Outbreak Of March 2 In A Historical Context. H. Michael Mogil, an expert of tornado climatology and historical perspective, has some timely thoughts on last Friday's outbreak in this Examiner post.

Photo credit above: "In this aerial photo, debris is strewn about, Saturday, March 3, 2012, in Marysville, Indiana, after a tornado swept through the area Friday. A string of violent storms demolished small towns in Indiana and cut off rural communities in Kentucky as an early season tornado outbreak killed more than 30 people, and the death toll rose as daylight broke on Saturday's search for survivors.(AP Photo/Al Behrman)."

“The Henryville, Indiana tornado (Clark County) rated an EF4 Major Tornado – just spoke with the NWS office in Louisville. The damage surveys for other areas including Chelsea and Marysville will be tomorrow.” - Indianapolis WTHR-TV meteorologist (and friend) Chikage Windler in a Sunday tweet.

Meteorologist: "It's The Type Of Storm We Struggle With The Most". When it comes to tornadoes everyone (NWS, local officials, meteorologists) want to err on the side of caution and safety. It's better to issue a tornado warning and have nothing materialize than to cross your fingers, and have a tornado unexpectantly roar through a heavily-developed area. The Charlotte Observer describes the quandary forecasters face when threatening-looking signatures and circulations show up on Doppler: "A thin line of thunderstorms was racing toward the Charlotte area at 60 mph early Saturday, about to produce a quick-hitting but strong tornado. And the people in its path, along a 3.8-mile stretch of Mecklenburg and Cabarrus counties, had no warning. On Saturday, a meteorologist at the National Weather Service's office in Greer, S.C., said forecasters never saw it coming. "It's the type of storm that we struggle with the most," meteorologist Harry Gerapetritis said of the EF2 twister that produced winds of up to 135 mph and damaged or destroyed about 90 homes, injuring three. "But we didn't get it right," he added."

Graphic credit above: "Posted by Brad Panovich WCNC @wxbrad: Heads up Cabarrus Co don't like this storm."

The Science Behind The Tornado Outbreak. Andy Mussoline at AccuWeather does a good job tracing the chronology of last Friday's deadly weather recipe: "Friday, March 2, 2012 may be known as one of the worst tornado outbreak for early March on record. Eighty sightings of tornadoes were reported between 10 a.m. and 9 p.m. Friday. Friday's outbreak could include more tornadoes in one day than typically occur over the entire month of March in the United States."

Wave Goodbye To The Snow In Your Yard. We'll come close to 40 later today, a good chance of topping 50 Tuesday afternoon, followed by a slight cooling trend later in the week (but still a few degrees above average). Highs may reach 50 again by the weekend, Saturday probably the drier, nicer day. A little light rain may arrive by Sunday.

Latest Snowcover. NOAA's NOHRSC map shows a couple inches of snow in the metro (a lot more north metro), with 8-12" in the Brainerd Lakes area, as much as 20-30" over far northern Minnesota and Lake Superior's North Shore. By the end of this week snowfall amounts will be roughly half what they are right now.

Snowflakes 401. From the La Crosse office of the National Weather Service: "Can you find two snow flakes which are alike? Many of the snow flakes that fell across the area today are called stellar dendrites (the type of snowflakes that you normally see on Christmas cards). They form when the temperatures aloft are around 5F (-15C). The snowflake by itself on the bottom to the right is great example of what a stellar dendrite looks like."

Snow Squall. From the State College, Pennsylvania office of the National Weather Service: "a snow squall obscures our view of Tussey Mountain and Boalsburg on Sunday afternoon."

Read more here: http://www.charlotteobserver.com/2012/03/03/3066447/meteorologist-its-the-type-of.html#storylink=cpy

A Record Wrecker For Rainfall. Australia's theage.com documents extreme rainfall amounts Down Under: "RAINFALL across Victoria's north-east over the past week has smashed hundred-year highs, with most locations having their wettest seven days on record. Corryong's 312 millimetres of rain doubled the previous weekly record set 119 years ago. The Bureau of Meteorology said Wodonga had 256 millimetres, topping its record set in 1893, and Mount Buffalo had 525 millimetres, beating its record of 483 millimetres set in 1956."

Paul's Links. Here are a few more of the URL's I rely on from day to day. Hope you can use a few of these for your meteorological needs down the road.

1). Advanced Hydrological Prediction Service. NOAA's AHPS site is a terrific resource to track (Doppler estimated) precipitation amounts for Minnesota, the Upper Midwest, or the entire USA, looking back 24 hours, or 180 days. In addition to tracking observed amounts, you can see how it compares to normal precipitation values, allowing some true perspective. Good information for farmers, gardeners - anyone who needs to keep tabs on precipitation.

2). Preliminary Local Climatological Data. Minnesota's State Climate Office (Minnesota Climatology Working Group) does an excellent job updating data for the Twin Cities (or any other large Minnesota town) at this site. Need to know how much snow fell on a certain day in 2008, or what the high was on August 23 of last year? This site will tell you everything you need to know.

3). Twin Cities Weather, Decade By Decade. Speaking of the Minnesota Climatology Working Group, this is a good site for researching specific weather on a specific day going back before 2000. If you want to look at data for the 90s, just chance the URL from msp1980's.htm to msp1990's.htm and the new data will pop up. One note: January shows up as "1", as in first month of the year, the next column is the day of the month, followed by high, low, precip, snowfall and snow depth. Pretty intuitive.

Ask Paul. Weather-Related Q&A.

Paul

"As one that has always been interested in weather, its been my observation that when our local media meteorologists say the SPC has put us in a slight risk area for severe storms, some sort of severe storms seems to fire off even though we were only in a slight risk.

That has caused me to look more deeply into the different type of products put out by the SPC, and I was alarmed to learn that my understanding of a slight risk area was grossly underestimated. That has since lead me to learn as much about weather and forecasting as I can, and to recognize storm structure and become a spotter for the NWS.

I am one that believes a well informed public is an aware and prepared public, statements like, stay sky....or keep in ear on ....just doesn't cut in my opinion.

So here is my question....

Paul could you please describe in detail the meaning of the Storm Predictions Convective Outlook pages? I see Categorical and Probabilistic products listed but would like a better understanding of them.

Thank you."

Randy Peterson

Randy - your question is a good one, and especially timely in light of Friday's tornado catastrophe. Every morning SPC, the Storm Prediction Center, a division of NOAA, issues "convective outlooks" that try to specify the aerial coverage and intensity of severe storms later in the day. The forecasts look at dozens of atmosphere variables, including the potential for low-level wind shear (which gives severe, rotating "supercell" thunderstorms their spin), instability, low-level moisture and dry air in the mid layers of the atmosphere. Most days between now and August will have a "slight" risk somewhere in the USA. This is fairly typical, and implies a good chance of Severe Thunderstorm Watches being issued later in the day. When you see a "moderate risk" from SPC it means a much better chance of tornadic storms. Expect Tornado Watches and Tornado Warnings later that day for the specified area. A (rare) "high risk" implies an extreme risk of tornadoes, especially large, long-lasting, potentially violent EF2-4 tornadoes. SPC meteorologists do a very good job, but tornadoes often fall outside a moderate or high risk area - even days with only a "slight risk", as you point out, can spawn tornadoes. It's a guide, and these forecasts get a little bit better every year. An estimated 70% of all tornadoes in the USA touch down in an area that has been placed under a Tornado Watch. It's a fine line: you don't want to overwarn people (they become complacent and believe forecasters are merely "crying wolf"). But you certainly don't want to under-warn people either - if anything you want to err on the side of safety and caution. Better to overwarn than underwarn.

Here are more details from SPC: "A SLGT risk implies that well-organized severe thunderstorms are expected but in relatively small numbers/coverage, or a small chance of a more significant severe event. Not all severe storm events will be covered with a SLGT risk, especially during the summer when short-lived, "pulse-type" severe storms are relatively common during the afternoon. A MDT risk implies a greater concentration of severe thunderstorms, and in most situations, greater magnitude of severe weather and greater forecaster confidence compared to a SLGT risk. A MDT risk is usually reserved for days with substantial severe storm coverage, or an enhanced chance for a significant severe storm outbreak. Typical MDT risk days include multiple tornadic supercells with very large hail, or intense squall lines with widespread damaging winds. The HIGH risk implies that a major severe weather outbreak is expected, with large coverage of severe weather and the likelihood of extreme severe (i.e., violent tornadoes or very damaging convective wind events). The HIGH risk category is reserved for the most extreme events with the least forecast uncertainty, and is only used a few times each year. The outlook categories are related to the specific tornado, damaging wind, and large hail probability forecast graphics on Day 1, and the total severe storm probabilities for the Day 2 and Day 3 outlooks."

Verification. Here was the convective outlook issued by SPC last Friday morning (slight risk is yellow, moderate risk is red, high threat is purple). The red dots (which are tough to see) are actual tornado touchdowns. As you can see SPC really nailed the area that experienced the most tornadoes and reports of large, damaging hail.

The system isn't perfect, but America has the best weather service in the world, bar none. The death toll last Friday could have been well into the hundreds - but between SPC, local NWS offices and local TV meteorologists people living in these risky zones had plenty of warning. if they were (awake) they knew that it was going to be a very rough afternoon and evening. Many schools and businesses even let out early on Friday, so people could be home with their families. Thanks for a great question Randy. I have a hunch it's going to be another very busy severe storm season for Minnesota meteorologists.

Convective Outlooks. Here's a good summary of the anticipated severe threat for the next few days, courtesy of SPC. Little or no risk of severe storms for the USA. The next chance of severe storms probably won't come until Thursday and Friday, from Texas to Tennessee.

U.S. Smartphone Ownership Eclipses Feature Phones. The story from gigaom.com: "The U.S. is now officially a smartphone nation, with 53 percent of all adult cell phone owners claiming ownership of a smartphone, according to a new report by the Pew Internet & American Life Project. It’s the first time that smartphone penetration has been reported to eclipse feature phones in the U.S. though the milestone has been predicted for some time. Pew found that smartphone ownership in February 2012 has jumped to 46 percent of all adults from 35 percent in May of 2011 while feature phone ownership has slipped from 48 percent to 41 percent over the same period. A slim 12 percent of adults said they still don’t own any phone at all."

Is This The iPad 3? Mashable.com (courtesy of MIC Gadget) has video of what may be the new iPad 3, scheduled to be formally announced on Wednesday. If you have an iPad itch that a scratch won't reach, read on: "Itching to see what the iPad 3 looks like and don’t want to wait until Wednesday? Tech blog MIC Gadget has reportedly obtained parts of the next-generation iPad. If this is real, it’s the closest look yet at the new tablet from Apple. In line with industry speculation, the clip reveals that the iPad 3 touts a larger camera lens and a slightly thicker shell. In addition, it will once again include a home button, disputing rumors that the touchscreen itself could serve as the home button. Apple announced last week it will be holding a press event on Wednesday, March 7 in San Francisco to unveil something to “see” and “touch.” Flurries of speculation have since circulated the Web with many looking for clues about the highly-anticipated launch of the iPad 3."

Parade Of Homes: Don Shelby's Green Dream. The Star Tribune has a nice article (and video) focusing on Don's new, energy-efficient green home in Excelsior. He's trying to walk the talk, and create a new home that has a minimal carbon footprint, while creating a new dwelling that will save considerable money on energy in the years ahead. Check out his new pad in this year's Parade of Homes - another sign of spring! "Don Shelby was raised to be frugal as a kid growing up in Muncie, Ind. "My mom would always tell us to shut the door when we left the room," said the recently retired WCCO-TV news anchor. "And she cooked one big meal a week, and the rest of the week we ate leftovers." His dad's stamp and coin collections taught Shelby that objects had value no matter how old they were. Later, as a journalist, he covered environmental issues and launched WCCO's Project Energy Series. "The more I reported on this breaking wave of technology, the more I became interested in incorporating it in my lifestyle," he said. "I wanted to walk the talk." So when Shelby and his wife, Barbara, had the opportunity to build a home exactly the way they wanted, their mission was to go green, incorporating the latest technologies, as well as recycled and repurposed materials."

End Of The Rainbow. Not to be a cynic or anything, but if anyone asks, at the end of the rainbow is...an outhouse? Spread the word. I have a hunch this was Photoshopped. Just a hunch.

Easiest Twin Cities Winter Since 1930-31

Winter is, for all intents and purposes, over. Of course we'll see more flurries, a few minor "slush events" - don't pack away the heavy jackets just yet. But subzero weather is behind us now. Only 3 night below zero, btw. Second fewest on record. By mid-March we'll see 60s - 70 still not out of the question, as moisture surges north out of the Gulf.

Silver lining: we're heading into a wetter pattern: 1-2" rain by mid-month. With the warmth & moisture may come an early start to severe storm season.

No arctic fronts. A few more dribs and drabs of snow. Even if we do see snow in late March it'll melt in 24 hours. Winter over on March 5? I must be lost. We're still living in "Minne-snowda", right?

Welcome to the easiest winter since 1930-31. Although the 4th warmest since 1872 it's the combination of mild and snow-free that's so unusual. 2001-2002 was warmer, but we saw 66 inches of snow. A bit more than the 22 inches this winter. 1931 was warmer with less snow; only 14 inches fell

It looks much too warm aloft for snow through the 3rd week of March. 50s sweep in Tuesday, again next weekend.

Take a nice photo of the snow in your yard. It'll be mostly-gone within 48 hours.

Cigarette's Lessons For Climate Change. The story from the L.A. Times. Here's a snippet: "There are limits to the parallels between smoking and climate change, of course. People can live quite well without smoking, while society does need to consume energy — even if not in the amounts it now does or from such damaging sources. But there are nevertheless ways in which our experience with tobacco can help us grapple with the overwhelming problem of climate change. First, let's examine some of the ironies here. As Naomi Oreskes and Erik Conway point out in their book "The Merchants of Doubt," the fossil fuel industry and the hard right have used the same tactics as the tobacco industry to seed doubt about the danger of climate change."

Photo credit above: "The cooling tower of a coal-fired power plant in Dadong, Shanxi province, China, is seen on Dec. 3, 2009. (Andy Wong/AP Photo / March 2, 2012)."

Denial Of Climate Change Dangerous Political Stand. Here's an excerpt of an Op-Ed at kentucky.com: "What gets lost in this murky sauce of minor factors is a simple truth: The Earth's fluctuating temperature has always risen and fallen according to the amount of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere. The level of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere has risen from the pre-industrial number of 280 parts per million to 383 parts per million in 2007. Never have CO2 levels spiked like that in the 600,000 years we can measure with ice core sampling, and therefore, only the burning of coal, oil and gas by human beings could account for that rise."

Read more here: http://www.kentucky.com/2012/03/04/2094514/ky-voices-denial-of-climate-change.html#storylink=cpy

The Best Part Of Global Warming. One big silver lining to one of the mildest winters on record for most of the USA? Fewer cases of flu. More details in The New York Times: "The long-term troubles this sort of weather predicts are alarming. In the short term, however, our warm winter may have one unforeseen and felicitous consequence: a drastic reduction in the incidence of influenza. Flu seasons can begin as early as October, and end when the number of positive tests for the virus approaches zero, generally sometime in March or April. There has been a wide variation in the number of deaths attributable to influenza in past seasons — it has reached as high as 49,000 — but the average is around 12,000."

Final Periods For Old-Time Shinny On Natural Ice, Climate Scientists Say. The story from The Vancouver Sun: "A team of Canadian climate scientists is predicting the widespread disappearance of outdoor hockey rinks across the country in the next 50 years due to global warming — with some regions of the sport’s spiritual birthplace likely to witness an even earlier eclipse of old-time shinny on natural ice. “The ability to skate and play hockey outdoors is a critical component of Canadian identity and culture,” three researchers from Montreal’s McGill and Concordia universities write in the latest issue of the U.K.-based scholarly journal Environmental Research Letters. “Wayne Gretzky learned to skate on a backyard skating rink; our results imply that such opportunities may not be available to future generations of Canadian children.”

Photo credit above: "Fred Fizet and his son Olivier play hockey on the backyard rink at their home in Baie d'Urfe outside Montreal. Photograph: John Mahoney , The Gazette."

Read more here: http://www.kentucky.com/2012/03/04/2094514/ky-voices-denial-of-climate-change.html#storylink=cpy

Take The Subway. An insightful look at (undeniable) trends from St. Louis Park's very own Thomas Friedman, reporting for The New York Times: "But you better believe this: The planet is getting flatter and more crowded. There will be two billion more people here by 2050, and they will all want to live and drive just like us. And when they do, there is going to be one monster traffic jam and pollution cloud, unless we learn how to get more mobility, lighting, heating and cooling from less energy and with less waste — with so many more people. We can’t let the climate wars continue to derail efforts to have an energy policy that puts in place rising efficiency standards, for buildings, windows, traffic, housing, packaging and appliances, that will drive innovation — which is our strength — in what has to be the next great global industry: energy and resource efficiency."

Global Warming: Multiple California Bird Species At Risk. Here's an excerpt from the Summit County Citzens Voice: "More than 100 of California’s bird species are vulnerable to global warming impacts, including 21 of the state’s 29 threatened and endangered bird species that will be further impacted by climate change, increasing their risk of extinction. At-risk birds include wetland birds like the California black rail, California and Yuma clapper rails and three species of song sparrow found only in the tidal marshes of San Francisco Bay. Species that make a living at sea or near-shore waters and that nest on islands or rocky shores are also highly vulnerable, including species like the Cassin’s auklet, common murre, black oystercatcher and the iconic white and brown pelicans, according to scientists with the Point Reyes Bird Observatory and the California Department of Fish and Game."

March 4: On Track For A New Yearly Tornado Record In The USA?

2012-03-03T20:15:00.001-08:00

2:32. Today the sun will be out 2 hours and 32 minutes longer than it was back on December 21.
11 hours, 18 minutes of daylight today.
6:46 am sunrise in the Twin Cities. Sunset is 6:04 pm.
October 8. Today the sun overhead will be as high in the sky as it was on October 8.

101 tornadoes Friday from Mississippi to Ohio. Source: SPC, NOAA's Storm Prediction Center. Photo of tornado damage in Marysville, Indiana courtesy of Nam Y. Huh/AP).

791 separate reports of severe weather Friday (hail, straight-line winds and tornadoes).

38 tornado-related fatalities from Friday's storms. 19 in Kentucky, 14 Indiana, 1 each in Alabama and Georgia. Source: AP.

“The Henryville, Indiana tornado (Clark County) rated an EF-4 Major Tornado – just spoke with the NWS office in Louisville. The damage surveys for other areas including Chelsea and Marysville will be tomorrow.” - Chikage Windler

"Everyone talks about the weather, but no one does anything about it." - Mark Twain.

Sunrise-Sunset Calculator. For any city, any day of the year. I'll even throw in moonrise for now extra money. Be the envy of your friends! Details below, along with 3 other sites, part of "Paul's Links".

2nd warmest meteorological winter on record for New York City; warmest February on record. Source: NOAA. Photo: Mark Lennihan/AP.

4 out of 5 of all Americans live in areas that have been declared Federal Disaster Areas at some point since 2006.

99 Federal Disasters declared in 2011, a new USA record.

"Public discourse has been polluted now for decades by corporate-funded disinformation – not just with climate change but with a host of health, environmental and societal threats. The implications for the planet are grim." - climate scientist Michael Mann, in a Guardian story below.

"A warming climate will only add to this trend of increasing losses, which is why action is needed now," said Mark Way, head of Swiss Re's sustainability and climate change activities in the Americas, who spoke at yesterday's press conference". - from a Huffington Post article below.

In Full Bloom, 30-45 Days Early. "Snow drops in Central Park in New York, Feb. 24, 2012. Horticulturalists in the Bronx call it the global-warming garden, and in a winter notable for its consistent mildness, it is hardly unusual. (Suzanne DeChillo/The New York Times)."

2011-2012: New York's Second Warmest Winter In History; Warmest February Ever. The Huffington Post has more specifics: "Yup, it's official: February was the warmest New York February since people started keeping track back in 1870. At a balmy average of 40.9 degrees, this February ties the 1984 record and caps off a remarkably warm three months, the "second warmest climatological winter on record, trailing only 2001-02," according to Gothamist. By contrast, the coldest February occurred in 1934, when temperatures averaged only 19.9 degrees, a staggering 21 degree difference."

324 months in a row. February was the 324th consecutive month of global temperatures above the 20th century average. Source: NOAA NCDC.

Incomprehensible Damage. Tens of thousands of Americans were impacted by Friday's severe storms: "Janet Elliott stands in her damaged kitchen after a tornado struck her home in Harrison, Tenn. on Saturday, March 3, 2012. Massive thunderstorms, predicted by forecasters for days, threw off dozens of tornadoes as they raced Friday from the Gulf Coast to the Great Lakes. Twisters crushed blocks of homes, knocked out cellphones and landlines, ripped power lines from broken poles and tossed cars, school buses and tractor-trailers onto roads made impassable by debris. (AP Photo/Billy Weeks)."

Amazing Tornado Outbreak For Early March. At last count (still a preliminary number) SPC counted 101 separate tornadoes on Friday from southern Mississippi to southwestern Ohio, a few of these were undoubtedly large, EF-3 and EF-4 tornadoes. This is somewhat typical for mid April or early May, but unusual for an outbreak of this size, aerial extent and ferocity coming in early March.

Eerily Similar. Check out the remarkable similarities between the tornado warnings (red) and severe storm warnings (blue) from Friday's outbreak with the deadly outbreak on April 27-28, 2011. I keep saying that Friday's outbreak was more typical for late April, and this comparison seems to prove that claim. Graphic courtesy of SPC.

Swarms Of Storms. NSSL, the National Severe Storms Lab in Norman, Oklahoma, created a map that summarizes the tracks of Friday's supercell, tornado-producing thunderstorms. This was done using an algorithm to calculate 2-D rotation tracks. What stands out to me is the "clumping" of tracks - many locations being hit by multiple, rotating, mesocyclones capable of tornadoes.

Toddler Found In Field 10 Miles Away From Family's Home After Tornado. CBS Cleveland has the story of what can only be called a modern-day miracle. The child is still in critical condition; a lot of people praying very hard for a full recovery. "A hospital spokeswoman says a 2-year-old girl found alive in an Indiana field after violent storms is the sole survivor of her immediate family. Cis Gruebbel is a spokeswoman for Kosair Children’s Hospital in Louisville, Ky. She said Saturday that the girl’s mother, father, 2-month-old sister and 3-year-old brother all died Friday when the storms devastated southern Indiana. Gruebbel says the toddler is in critical condition. She would not identify the child and says she could not provide details on the child’s ordeal. She says extended family members are at the hospital with the child."

2012 (229) * 2011 (1709) 2010 (1282)
Tornado Nation. America experiences more tornadoes than any other nation on Earth. Why? It's a function of our geography. The same features that make our nation spectacularly beautiful can result in extreme contrasts in temperature and moisture. Throw in an unstable airmass and high winds howling high overhead, and you can brew up the atmospheric ingredients necessary for tornadoes. The Storm Prediction Center maps above show locations of tornado touchdowns for 2010, 2011 and 2012 (as of February 29). The map in the upper left does not reflect Friday's major outbreak. According to SPC the 3-year average for tornado touchdowns in the USA is 1382; the long-term average is closer to 1,000 tornadoes/year. Are we really seeing more tornadoes, or doing a better job of spotting the tornadoes that have always been there. Or both? There is some controversy in the meteorological community, but my perception is that, even though we have new and better tools to spot and track tornadoes (including Dual Polarization Doppler and well-trained storm spotters and chasers) something else is going on - that we may be, in fact, experiencing an uptick in tornadoes.

* preliminary number.

"Like A Bomb Dropped From The Sky". Thanks to photographer Greg Pursifull from CN2, who sent back this photo from Morgan County, Kentucky.

Red Cross Launches Huge Tornado Relief Effort. From the Red Cross: "Friday night, the Red Cross opened or supported 22 shelters in Missouri, Illinois, Kentucky, Oklahoma, North Carolina, Alabama, Indiana, Ohio, Tennessee, Virginia and West Virginia. Across the affected states, trained Red Cross disaster workers are mobilizing to begin feeding operations and distribution of relief supplies. Red Cross health services and mental health workers also will be out in neighborhoods help people cope with what they’ve seen and experienced. And damage assessment teams will also help the Red Cross and our partners discover the full scope of the damage."

Huge Mobilization Effort. Click here to see the Kentucky National Guard's photostream, courtesy of Flickr, and get a greater appreciation for the clean-up effort now underway: "Kentucky Guardsman Staff Sgt. Joshua Matlock, with the Charlie Battery, 1st Battalion, 623rd Field Artillery (HIMARS), accompanies Kentucky's Lt. Gov. Jerry Abramson as they view the debris that covered the area of East Bernstadt Ky. Mar. 3. (Photo by Spc. Brandy Mort, 133rd Mobile Public Affairs Detachment)."

March The Way It Was Meant To Be? Call me crazy, but I still find snow in early March reasurring. Meteorologist Todd Nelson snapped this shot up at Lutsen on Saturday - still plenty of snow for skiing and snowboarding up north.

Couple of Feeble Clippers. The pattern isn't ripe for accumulating snow anytime soon (looking out 2 weeks). A weak clipper may squeeze out a dusting or coating of flurries today in the metro, a better chance of a quick inch, maybe 2", over southwestern Minnesota.

February: What Happened To "Normal". The normal high/low range is the green-shaded area above. As you can see, February temperatures were consistently warmer than average in the Twin Cities. Only 5 nights saw lows colder than average. More from the local office of the National Weather Service: "February of 2012 continued one trend that has been in place since this past summer and that is continued above normal temperatures. As with December and January, February featured yet another month this winter where the entire area saw temperatures between 4 and 8 degrees above normal. One trend that did end (in February) was that of experiencing below normal precipitation. A very wet storm at the end of the month saw most locations nearly double the normal precipitation observed in February in just 2 days. However, much of the precipitation that did fall (last) month came in the form of rain, which resulted in February having below normal snowfall for all but northern sections of the Chanhassen forecast area (central MN and northwest WI). February marked the first time since July that the Twin Cities had above normal precipitation for a month.

Outlook: Rapid Meltdown. If you like snow (and who among us doesn't?) get out and take a few photos - it'll be pretty much gone by next Tuesday as highs surge into the 40s to near 50. Nothing approximating a "cold front" in sight.

Third Week Of March: 60s, Shot At 70? Well, we won't be seeing any significant snow anytime soon. For that to happen 850 mb temperatures (4,000 feet) need to be colder than 0 C. (32 F). Those (GFS) temperatures are forecast to be +6 C to +12 C from March 11-19.

First Severe Outbreak For Minnesota? Pure speculation this far out - but long-range GFS guidance shows upper level winds (finally) howling form Texas by February 19 (pictured above), which could translate into significant rain, even T-storms, a few of which could be severe close to home by the 3rd week of March. I stand by my hunch: severe storm season will come to Minnesota a few weeks earlier than usual this year.

Paul's Links. I've gotten a number of request to share some of my (super-secret) web sites, the trusted sources I turn to for raw weather data, current conditions, weather models, etc. So for the next few weeks (until I run out) I'm going to go down my Firefox browser list, in no particular order. I hope a few of these are bookmark-worthy:

1). Minnesota Climate Summary. This is the go-to URL for climate information for MSP and every other reporting station in Minnesota. Click on "CLIMSP" to get Twin Cities data, but all other major Minnesota cities are included. Data courtesy of NOAA.

2). National High and Low Temperatures. If you're looking for that day's extremes this is the site to check out, courtesy of NOAA NCEP. The latest data usually arrives by 7 pm every day.

3). Recent Snowfall and Snow Depth Maps. NOAA has a wealth of information online, including this site that shows recent snowfall for the last 24 hours, or up to 7 days in the past. OK. I'll try to remember to post 3 new sites every day until I run out of ammunition. How much time do you have?

Sunrise - Sunset - Moonrise Times. If you're serious about fishing (and a few Minnesotans are), or just need a specific time to calculate your sunset wedding come June, check out sunrisesunset.com. All your celestial needs in one handy site.

Frontline: Inside Japan's Nuclear Meltdown. Parts of Japan are uninhabitable, and will be for decades, the result of last year's severe earthquake and tsunami, that claimed over 20,000 lives. An incredible PBS Frontline documentary reveals the stark truth: the world came very close to a total meltdown of 6 reactors and 7 nuclear fuel pools that would have forced the evacuation of Tokyo (and 90,000 Americans and their dependents). The (former) Prime Minister of Japan, in a very bold move, ordered TEPCO nuclear workers not to evacuate the Fukushima Nuclear Plant. They remained on-site, forcing water onto the smoldering ruins of the reactors, preventing a total meltdown in the process. This runs 53 minutes, but it's a compelling look at just how close we came to the world's worst nuclear catastrophe.

Apple's TV Dream Revealed: Embarrass Hardware Makers, Stiff Content Providers, Destroy Cable Companies. Not sure how much of this is real, but businessinsider.com has a potentially revealing peek at iScreen, or iTV, or iWhatever: Over the last several months, Apple's vision for television has become clearer. Thanks to work by Wall Street analyst Gene Munster on the hardware side and the New York Post's Claire Atkinson on the content and cable side, we now have a pretty good picture of what Apple wants to do:

Build a TV set that is much cooler and easier to use than anything else out there
Charge twice as much for it
Assemble a "virtual cable company" with boatloads of great content by cutting deals with content providers

Where Do Good Ideas Comes From? I don't know, goodideas.com? I give up. Steve Johnson has some intriguing ideas in his new book, highlighted at this link, courtesy of brainpickings.org: "We’re big fans of the RSA. Their latest gem animates one of the most important questions in creative culture: Where do good ideas come from? Steven Johnson tackles the grand question with insights from his latest book and a historical perspective on innovation throughout human civilization."

Taking The Long View: How Amazon's Jeff Bezos Owes Much Of His Success To His Ability To Look Beyond The Short-Term View Of Things. A fascinating article from The Economist: "INSIDE a remote mountain in Texas, a gargantuan clock is being pieced together, capable of telling the time for the next 10,000 years. Once the clock is finished, people willing to make the difficult trek will be able to visit the vast chamber housing it, along with displays marking various anniversaries of its operation. On a website set up to track the progress of this “10,000-year clock”, Jeff Bezos, who has invested $42m of his own money in the project, describes this impressive feat of engineering as “an icon for long-term thinking”. Photo above courtesy of zimbio.com.

Daydreaming Of Summer. Yep, many of us are dreaming of spring break, a quick getaway, getting a little vitamin D into our bodies. My wife of 28 years and I just got back from a wonderful week at Boca Grande, Florida, on a barrier island about 1 hour south of Sarasota. You pay a $5 toll and cross a causeway from the mainland, over 3 little bridges, onto this lush peninsula of land between the Intercoastal Waterway and the Gulf of Mexico. It was pretty incredible: deep sea fishing (tarpon), dophin-watching and (reluctant) shopping in a relaxing little village with no traffic lights, not even a gas station, and some of the most incredible, picture-perfect Technicolor Sunsets I've ever witnessed in my 53 years on this planet. White sugar sand, as good as Lido Beach or Siesta Key in my humble opinion. I snapped the photo above on Thursday, when the high was a balmy 85, unusually warm for early March, even in Florida.

Seaside, Florida: Cars Optional - Walking/Biking Encouraged. The week before I was studying tropical weather patterns at Seaside, a "new urbanist" village on the Florida Panhandle, between Destin and Panama City Beach. Cars were truly optional: small cottages close together, with the ability to walk to shops and restaurants. This was the town featured in the Jim Carrey movie, "The Truman Show". Equally charming, with plenty to explore (the town of Rosemary Beach would have looked right at home in France or Belgium). Again, great beaches, more nightlife than Boca Grande (if I was 30 years younger that might be relevant), but also 10-20 degrees cooler. That's the thing about The Emerald Coast of the Florida Panhandle: it's terrific, but you can't count on warm, sun-drenched weather in late February, like you usually can in Sarasota, Ft. Myers or Naples. Then again traffic is a lot easier too - not nearly as much stop and go driving to worry about.

* photo above is from Boca Grande, where we rented a place at vrbo.com (where I have never been disappointed). It must be nice to actually own a place in Florida, but not having to worry about renters, taxes, insurance (and hurricanes) counts for something.No, the sun hasn't gone to my head - the weather blog isn't mutating into a tired travelogue. My wife and I set out to find two quiet (sane), relatively affordable and undiscovered areas of Florida that might appeal to us. Is there a "perfect spot" left in Florida that hasn't been overdeveloped or condominium-ized? My (highly subjective) conclusion: Seaside and the Florida Panhandle was more interesting - more stuff to do and see, but Boca Grande was more relaxing, more isolated and private. Sarasota was nearby (if you wanted to brave traffic and explore shopping and night life), but I can't imagine a better Florida retreat. If you really want to get off the grid and sink your toes into hot, white (perfect) sugar sand for a few days you might want to check out "Boca" one of these days. You won't regret it. And no, I don't get a spiff from the Chamber of Commerce. I should be so lucky...

Save 40-60% On Car Rentals. I'm starting to sound like the Geico gecko, but I found a very helpful web site that searches for the lowest car rental rates available, sort of like kayak.com for cars. It's called autoslash.com. I rented a car for 2 weeks in Florida and spent 40% of what I would have spent going directly to one of the Big 3 car rental agencies. It works, and if you're serious about saving money on your next vacation you might want to check it out.

What Is Going On?

I'm temporarily speechless. A speechless meteorologist? Oxymoron. I'm watching tornado coverage on CNN, scanning the SPC web site. 101 tornadoes on Friday. Unusual, even for late April.

If I didn't know better I'd say Mother Nature is having a loud, violent nervous breakdown. America's weather has always been severe but this is awe-inspiring, and very sad. The Symphony of Seasons is playing wildly out of tune; a Beethoven Concerto with a rap-funk beat. Not. Right.

Suddenly the weather maps make no sense. Mile-wide tornadoes, epic floods, drought; flowers already in bloom in New England? We'll see 50 by Tuesday here in the Twin Cities metro; the GFS hints at highs near 70 by mid-March. We seem to have skipped a month. Maybe two.

A warmer atmosphere holds more water, more fuel for storms. 2010 was Minnesota's wettest year on record. We also saw 145 tornadoes. Coincidence? I don't think so.

Uh oh, I feel a climate change lecture coming on. Spare us a Sunday Sermon, Paul. Why remind us? Because, after looking at the data and listening very carefully to peer-reviewed climate scientists (not blustery radio talk show hosts) climate change will almost certainly be one of the 3 big stories of the 21st century. Because someday your grandkids may come up and ask what you knew....when... and what you did about it.

Outbreaks of bizarre weather are a symptom - our atmosphere is running a slight, low-grade fever. If you're not at all concerned you're not paying attention.

Photo credit above: "Debris from homes and trees litter the path of Friday's tornado in Henryville, Ind. on Saturday, March 3, 2012. Severe storms, predicted by forecasters for days, killed dozens of people in five states - Alabama, Georgia, Indiana, Kentucky and Ohio. (AP Photo/Michael Conroy)."

Climate Stories...

Americans Get It: Global Warming Is Poisoning Our Weather. Poison is a strong word - I still prefer the "weather on steroids" metaphor. We've always had severe storms, but having a warmer, wetter atmosphere floating overhead increases the fundamental odds of wild weather. The story from Think Progress: "Killer tornadoes are marking the transition from a freakishly warm winter into yet another freakishly dangerous spring. The multi-billion-dollar drought in Texas and Oklahoma is expected to continue into the indefinite future. Planting seasons, maple syrup seasons, and cherry blossom festivals are starting at weirder and weirder times. Torrential rains and record heat waves are becoming commonplace. Migrating birds are straying from their normal path, insect pests are multiplying, and trees are dying. Americans are starting to trust the evidence of their own senses about the growing impacts of climate change, instead of the barrage of misinformation and confusion that comes from media sources."

Why The Global Warming Skeptics Are Wrong. If you read one story about the (manufactured) controversy over climate change, read this essay from William Nordhaus at the New York Review Of Books. Here's an excerpt: "One might argue that there are many uncertainties here, and we should wait until the uncertainties are resolved. Yes, there are many uncertainties. That does not imply that action should be delayed. Indeed, my experience in studying this subject for many years is that we have discovered more puzzles and greater uncertainties as researchers dig deeper into the field. There are continuing major questions about the future of the great ice sheets of Greenland and West Antarctica; the thawing of vast deposits of frozen methane; changes in the circulation patterns of the North Atlantic; the potential for runaway warming; and the impacts of ocean carbonization and acidification. Moreover, our economic models have great difficulties incorporating these major geophysical changes and their impacts in a reliable manner. Policies implemented today serve as a hedge against unsuspected future dangers that suddenly emerge to threaten our economies or environment. So, if anything, the uncertainties would point to a more rather than less forceful policy—and one starting sooner rather than later—to slow climate change."

Insurers Brace For Stormy Weather As World Warms. Huffington Post has the article; here's an excerpt: "Perhaps no industry better understands the impact of global warming than the insurance industry whose job it is to analyze risk," Sanders said. "I am pleased leaders in that industry are speaking out about the need to reverse global warming." Added Whitehouse, "Extreme weather events, like Rhode Island's historic floods in 2010, can result in the loss of homes, livelihoods, and even lives. These extreme events fit a pattern predicted by climate scientists, and we should take action now to minimize the damage that carbon pollution is causing to our country and our world."

Death Threats, Intimidation And Abuse: Climate Scientist Michael Mann Counts The Costs Of Honesty. The U.K. Guardian has the story: "Among the tactics used against Mann were the theft and publication, in 2009, of emails he had exchanged with climate scientist Professor Phil Jones of East Anglia University. Selected, distorted versions of these emails were then published on the internet in order to undermine UN climate talks due to begin in Copenhagen a few weeks later. These negotiations ended in failure. The use of those emails to kill off the climate talks was "a crime against humanity, a crime against the planet," says Mann, a scientist at Penn State University. Mann became a target of climate deniers' hate because his research revealed there has been a recent increase of almost 1°C across the globe, a rise that was unprecedented "during at least the last 1,000 years" and which has been linked to rising emissions of carbon dioxide from cars, factories and power plants."

March 3: 80-100 Tornadoes Friday (on track for another record tornado season?)

2012-03-02T18:10:00.000-08:00

81 separate tornadoes on Friday (as of 7 pm yesterday) from Alabama to Ohio. Details below. Photo: AP Photo/The Huntsville Times, Dave Dieter.

29 tornadoes on the ground - simultaneously - at one point Friday afternoon. Source: CNN.

196 tornado warnings, 240 severe thunderstorm warnings, 432 severe storm reports as of 7 pm central on Friday (source: Alabama TV meteorologist James Spann).

2 small tornadoes were reported near Stapleton and Greeley, Nebraska on February 29 - the first February tornadoes ever reported in Nebraska. Source: WOWT-TV.

Cincinnati/Northern Kentucky International Airport (CVG) was closed as of Mar 02 at 04:30 PM EST “Due to FOD ON RWY, the Cincinnati/Northern Kentucky International Airport (CVG) was closed as of Mar 02 at 04:30 PM EST. The date/time when the airport is expected to reopen is not known.” Tornado debris?

300 million years. The world's oceans are thought to be acidifying faster than any time in the last 300 million years. Full article below.

“The good Lord gave you a body that can stand most anything. It's your mind you have to convince.” - Vince Lombardi

Last Best Hope For Snow Lovers? I can't stress this enough - if you like snow, and want one more weekend to play in the snow (sledding, snowmobiling, cross country skiing) this weekend is probably your best bet, possibly for the rest of the winter season. Considering long-range guidance brings 40s and 50s into central and southern Minnesota as early as next week - I wouldn't be surprised to see 60 here by mid March - you might want to take advantage of chilly temperatures and excellent snow conditions this weekend. See the raw NOAA data for yourself here.

A 6 Month "Warm Bias". Dr. Mark Seeley has more on our growing number of warmer than average months in his weekly WeatherTalk blog: "February's climate kept up the trend of the past six months delivering above normal temperatures to the state. Most observers reported average monthly temperatures that were 4 to 9 degrees F above normal, with the highest departures in the north (International Falls was 9.2 degrees F above normal). February 2012 ranks 10th warmest statewide historically. Extremes for the month ranged from 55 degrees F at Milan, Montevideo, Marshall, and Lamberton on February 2nd to -20 degrees F at Fosston on February 11th. Despite the warmer than normal month, Minnesota reported the coldest temperature in the 48 contiguous states 7 times during the month."

Chilly Weekend - Hints of April By Tuesday. All the models show a significant warming trend next week; there's a good chance we'll see low 50s by Tuesday afternoon, followed by slightly cooler weather the latter half of next week. No bitter fronts - certainly nothing subzero brewing looking out through March 20 or so.

March 2012: Hints of April? Here's an excerpt from the weather firm Planalytics, focusing on the next couple of weeks and an overall bias toward much warmer than average temperatures east of the Rockies: "But as we move into this next time period, businesses should prepare for overall warmer than normal conditions. Many locations in the Northeast, Great Lakes, and Canada will experience temperatures up to +15F. above normal. While the potential for storms and brief periods of cooler temperatures are possible, next week will continue the trend of warmer than nnormal for most locations, and warm enough to dive additional lift in seasonal demand."

No Major Storms (of any flavor) Brewing. A very persistent Alberta Clipper, putting down a narrow, 900-mile wide carpet of a couple of inches, may drop an inch of snow today, another coating of flurries on Sunday. That's about it in the snowfall department until further notice. 84 hour NAM snowfall prediction courtesy of NOAA and WeatherCaster.

A Deadly Friday. When I posted this update Friday evening 81 separate tornadoes had touched down from southern Alabama into southern Indiana and southern Ohio - a few of these were probably large, violent, long-lasting EF-3 and EF-4 tornadoes, possibly more than 1/2 mile wide. The latest count from SPC, NOAA's Storm Prediction Center here.

Weather Carnage. Friday was one of the most damaging and deadly days since April 27 of last year. A handful of small towns from southern Illinois and southern Indiana into Kentucky were literally wiped right off the map: "Damage is seen from above the Henryville, Ind., area, Friday, March 2, 2012. Powerful storms stretching from the U.S. Gulf Coast to the Great Lakes in the north wrecked two small towns, killed at least three people and bred anxiety across a wide swath of the country on Friday, in the second deadly tornado outbreak this week. (AP Photo/The Courier-Journal, Michael Clevenger)."

* Indiana Town "Completely Gone" After Tornado Kills At Least 3, Official Says. The Chicago Sun Times has more details on the destruction of Henryville, Indiana here.

** WISH-TV reports that schools in Henryville let out 20 minutes before the tornado struck.

Atmospheric Battering Ram. Weatherbug meteorologist Ben Michalak captured this photo in Indiana during a cross-country drive from Chicago to D.C.

Waiting Out The Storm. In a hurricane you want to get up, as high as possible, at least third or fourth floor of a well-constructed building (if you can't evacuate safely inland). In a hurricane the main concern is not the wind, but the storm surge, a sudden rise in tide levels in a matter of minutes. In a tornado the goal is to get below grade, under ground, to avoid flying debris, which is the biggest cause of death and injury: "Police, rescue workers, and other local media gather in a storm shelter to ride out another threatening storm as it approaches areas already damaged by an earlier tornado on Friday, March. 2, 2012, in Athens, Ala. Powerful storms stretching from the U.S. Gulf Coast to the Great Lakes in the north wrecked two small towns, killed at least three people and bred anxiety across a wide swath of the country on Friday, in the second deadly tornado outbreak this week. (AP Photo/Butch Dill)."

Evidence Of Severe Upward Motion. I start to get nervous when I see golfball size hail or larger - it means that a thunderstorm updraft is especially intense. The larger the hail, the stronger the updraft, and potentially the greater the risk of a tornado. Here are some examples of baseball-size hail in southern Indiana, courtesy of Antranik Askander.

Mind-Numbing Damage. Two deadly days of tornados in just one week. It's true that early March is prime time for tornadoes across much of the Deep South, but to have such widespread tornado outbreaks (Florida to West Virginia) on March 2 is a bit unusual: "A tornado left a path of destruction as it passed through Friday, March 2, 2012, in Athens, Ala. Powerful storms stretching from the Gulf Coast to the Great Lakes flattened buildings in several states, wrecked two Indiana towns and bred anxiety across a wide swath of the country in the second powerful tornado outbreak this week. (AP Photo/Butch Dill)."

Confirmation Of A Tornado On The Ground: A "Debris Ball". The new dual-polarization Doppler Radar from the National Weather Service sends out a vertical as well as a horizontal pulse of energy, making it easier to differentiate raindrop size, whether a storm is capable of rain, ice or snow, and even more important: these sweeping pulses of energy can detect actual debris being thrown up by a tornado circulation on the ground. Before now we had to rely on Skywarn spotters and law enforcement for confirmation. Now, with "dual pol" radar, it's possible to see the actual tornado structure itself. Over time this should result in even greater confidence for meteorologists, hopefully leading to fewer false alarms. The debris ball associated with a possible EF-4 tornado (above) tore into West Liberty, Kentucky late afternoon yesterday.

An Early, Violent Start To Tornado Season. Last year an incredible 1,709 tornadoes were reported across the USA, according to SPC. Last year tornado season came on strong during late February, peaking in April and May. By comparison 2012 brought more tornadoes earlier (top graph), and many meteorologists I respect believe 2012 could set a new record for tornadoes, at the rate we're going. La Nina springs tend to be severe, stronger jet stream winds howling overhead, more wind shear available to spin up the rotating "supercell" storms that can go on to spin up tornadoes. There's little doubt that we are on track for another very violent spring across the USA.

USA Tornado Count (courtesy of SPC)

2012: 211 (preliminary)

2011: 1709

2010: 1282

NASA, NOAA Team Up For Satellite To Increase Tornado Warning Times. Here's a timely post from CNN's Light Years blog: "After this week's massive storm system, which spawned tornadoes that killed 12 people, you might appreciate this: NASA and NOAA (the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration) have teamed up to launch a new GOES weather monitoring satellite: the GOES-R series, which will help warn people about severe weather sooner. GOES stands for Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite. As they orbit Earth, the satellites monitor atmospheric conditions. They're basically fixed in place over a single spot on the planet, with a wide-angle view, collecting data around the clock. This lets meteorologists identify triggers for severe weather like hurricanes, flash floods, hailstorms and tornadoes."

Photo credit above: "This image, from the GOES-13 satellite, shows a massive storm system moving across the eastern U.S. on Wednesday." Courtesy NOAA, CNN.

Joplin Tornado Survivors Seek Hurricane Katrina Lessons. The story from nola.com in New Orleans: "The group came to help rebuild a city still struggling to find its way more than six years after Hurricane Katrina, and to learn some disaster recovery lessons they can take back to their own storm-ravaged Missouri community. A 14-hour bus ride and 715 miles from home, the bleary-eyed bank executives, hospital administrators and church workers from Joplin, Mo., spent much of Thursday wielding paint brushes, sledgehammers and crowbars."

Photo credit above: "Volunteer Laura Veri from Rebuild Joplin, right, takes photos during St. Bernard Project's dedication of a newly renovated home that was destroyed by Katrina in New Orleans, Thursday, March 1, 2012. Nearly two dozen volunteers from Rebuild Joplin partnered with The St. Bernard Project, which renovates Katrina-devastated homes in the New Orleans area. (AP Photo/Cheryl Gerber)."

Ask Paul. Weather-Related Q&A.

"Hi. I have a question about weather radios. The tornadoes down south this past few days have reminded me to prepare for the "season" coming soon, and I am interested in getting a weather radio this year. I would like one with AM/FM and possibly a clock alarm. Do you have any particular advice or recommendations? Thanks for your time. I appreciate it."

Joyce

Joyce - thanks for a timely question. For years now I've been extolling the virtues (and utter necessity) of NOAA Weather Radio. It's not enough to rely on the sirens, or even local TV and radio and the Internet, as good as those sources are. Who/what is going to wake you up if there's a tornado warning for your county at 3 am? Only a NOAA Weather Radio will do that - set off an audio alert that wakes you up if a warning is issued for your county. Make sure you buy one with "SAME Technology", so you can program in only your county - or you'll go nuts with the radio going off all the time. Here's one I found from Midland on Amazon for $35, which seems like a lot of bang for the buck, the Midland WR300:

"Automatic alert warns you of hazardous conditions Perfect bedside alarm clock AM/FM radio with 6 memory channels Add or remove alerts S.A.M.E. localized reception Color coded alert indicators Alarm clock with snooze Event expiration indicator Add or remove alerts Programmable siren level Silent programming 10 reviewable alerts 7 preset weather channels Receives over 60 alerts."

Do a Google Search for NOAA Weather Radio, AM/FM and Clock Radio and you'll see scores of options, ranging in price from $25 to over $75. I hate to sound like a NOAA Preacher, but every home, office, school, nursing home and hospital should have at least one. It's the ultimate safety net.

__________________________________________________________________________

Hi Paul,

"I am curious about something I saw on February 28th late night into February 29th midnight. I saw two bursts of green light illuminate the sky. This was during the snowstorm when there was ice and snow on the trees and on the ground. Was this lightening during a snowstorm? There was no sound. Just a low hum like a motor running. It was the weirdest thing I have ever seen. I know there was no powerline down since the power was up and there was no flicker in the lights.

Any answers would be much appreciated.

Thanks,"

Priya

Dear Priya - I appreciate your note. My hunch is the green flashes of light were from high tension lines or possibly transformers, responding to a slow build-up of freezing rain (glaze ice), which can wreak havoc on electrical systems. This would also account for the strange humming noise. Of course you want to give downed power lines a wide berth when they come down - they can still be "hot", capable of electrocuting anyone who steps onto one of these. Be careful out there! - Paul

__________________________________________________________________________

Paul,

"When will your son graduate from the Naval Academy? I know this isn't a weather question, but you periodically comment on your son at the USN Academy. Graduation from a military academy is a great family experience. Our youngest son graduated from the US Air Force Academy a few years back and it was a super time. Several of my close retired friends graduated from the Naval Academy and they were outstanding men and leaders."

Very Respectfully//Fraine C. Zeitler, Colonel.USAF Ret

Colonel Zeitler - thank you for writing and inquiring about my youngest son, who graduates from USNA in Annapolis in May. His plans are to fly fixed wing jets or helicopters for the Navy - although, as you probably well realise, he has no idea where he'll wind up or what (specifically) he'll be doing. Semper Gumbi (be flexible) right? I'm incredibly proud of him (and appreciative to Jim Ramstad for teeing up his nomination to the Naval Academy). He's heading to Pensacola this summer and my wife and I will probably be looking for excuses to study tropical weather patterns on the Florida Panhandle. Thanks for asking, and thank you for your service. My congratulations to your aviator son! - Paul

Apple Prepares To Pull Down "Evi" From App Store. Did It Slap Down Siri? Uh oh, Siri may have company, and she/it is not too happy about that, from what I read. Techcrunch.com has the story: "Last month we reported on the launch of Evi, a new iPhone (iTunes link) and Android app (link) which was very Siri-like in its capabilities. Maybe it was too good at acting like Siri? Yes, Evi can’t do Siri’s trick of adding things to your iPhone Calendar or hook into reminders. But, ask “How do I make apple pie?” and Evi provides a list of recipes with web links. Siri can’t give you a direct answer and just asks whether you want to search the web. Perhaps it’s the fact that Evi is pretty damn good, and doesn’t look a million miles away from Siri, that Apple has told True Knowledge that it is going to pull Evi from the App Store. Wait, what?"

"Eco-Perch" Is The Rolls Royce Of Treehouses. Just in case you're thinking of spending way too much money on a treehouse, here's a story excerpt from gizmag.com: "While we love the dangling treetop retreats located at Sweden's Treehotel, and the House Arc had us yearning for a private backyard hideaway, the eco-PERCH has to be the Rolls Royce of modern modular tree-houses. This eco-lodge concept was created by the UK architectural firm Blue Forest, which has a background in the design and construction of luxury treehouses and lodges."

WHNT Offering Viewers Money To Be Meteorologist's Facebook Friend. Wow - it's come to this? I'm sure Jason is a good guy, and might even be your FB pal for free, but the notion of winning at $519 gift card might just make me hit the "like" button. Repeatedly. But why stop there? Maybe $2 for every favorable tweet? Talk about a slippery slope. TVSpy.com has the unsavory details: "Just in case his extensive coverage of tornadoes sweeping through Alabama wasn’t enough to entice viewers to Like WHNT chief meteorologist Jason Simpson on Facebook, the Huntsville CBS-affiliate is now offering $519 to be his friend. WHNT, channel 19, has posted a big promotion on Simpson’s Facebook page, offering viewers a chance to win an American Express gift card if they Like the veteran meteorologist."

Happy Birthday Justin! A Look At Bieber's $100,000 Electric Car. From the Los Angeles Times: "Justin Bieber turned 18 on Thursday and to celebrate, his manager surprised him with a Fisker Karma -- a $100,000 electric car whose sporty physique belies its eco-friendliness. Bieber's manager, Scott Braun, presented the Canadian pop star with the car on the "Ellen DeGeneres Show," of all places. "We wanted to make sure, since you love cars, that when you're on the road you are always looking environmentally friendly," Braun said as DeGeneres beamed in the background. "And we decided to get you a car that would make you stand out. I think you know where I'm going, and you're kind of freaking out right now. That's a Fisker Karma."

Photo credit above: "Justin Bieber's new wheels: The Fisker Karma. The car was presented to Bieber by manager Scott Braun on the "Ellen DeGeneres Show." (David Undercoffler / Los Angeles Times)."

"Pocket Geiger": The $46 iPhone Geiger Counter. Here's one app I'll bet you don't have. Hopefully you'll never have a need for this, but just in case - more details from our tech-savvy friends over at gizmag.com: "In what seems to be a response to public fears about radiation levels following the Fukushima crisis, a Japanese organization called Radiation Watch has launched Pocket Geiger, a Geiger counter iPhone peripheral and accompanying app aimed at concerned individuals."

Instant Summer. Much of Florida has experienced record warmth in recent days with highs in the mid to upper 80s, typical weather for late April. Record highs have been set in Ft. Myers, Sarasota and Tampa. Photo above is from Lido Beach, in the Sarasota area.

Florida Might Be Nice. Thanks to Karen Wagner for this fine photo from Panama City, Florida.

Fast Forward Spring

I'm not clairvoyant. That's one skill that would come in handy for a weather guy. But the trends are pretty obvious by now: the atmosphere is on "fast-forward" - the maps look more like early April than early March.

According to Dr. Mark Seeley February was the 10th warmest in Minnesota's modern history; the last 6 months in a row have been (significantly) warmer than average, statewide. 21.8 inches of snow, the least since 2004-05, when only 25.5" fell the entire winter. Will we see more snow? Probably, but I don't see anything brewing through mid-March. Too dry, and too warm. We'll see 50s by Tuesday; the GFS hinting at 60 by mid-March.

This is still Minnesota right? February was the first above-average month for precipitation since August, but I'm still worried about drought. 96% of Minnesota is in a moderate drought.

And at the rate we're going a fading La Nina coupled with a strangely-energized jet stream may favor an early start to severe storm season. Great.

A coating to 1" flurries may fall today. 40 will feel good Monday; a shot at low 50s Tuesday. Is winter over? Starting to wonder.

Climate Stories...

An Eye On The Sky For Texas. The New York Times (subscription required) has a story about the busy, sometimes-controversial work of the State Climatologist for the state of Texas: "Climate change is a hot-button subject nationally, and state climatologists have sometimes gotten caught in the cross-fire, Dr. Foster said. Dr. Nielsen-Gammon said he has received no political pushback, even though he believes humans contribute to climate change. Still, he said Texans occasionally ask him questions like: “You don’t believe in all this global warming nonsense, do you?” He said he does not believe in all the nonsense, but he added that temperatures are rising globally and greenhouse gases are the biggest driver of the trend, and “if things keep going like this there will be serious consequences.”

Photo credit above: "In this Tuesday, Aug. 16, 2011 photo, docked sailboats sit high and dry at a marina on Benbrook Lake in the Fort Worth suburb of Benbrook, Texas. A wet winter across Texas has surprised weather experts who aren't sure when the drought-stricken state will get longterm relief. Some forecasters say the La Nina weather phenomenom may end just in time to allow for spring rains. But nothing short of massive storms, 200 to 500 percent of normal rainfall for three months, will end the severe drought, according to weather data. (AP Photo/LM Otero)."

Houston Insurance Claims Lawyer Says 2011 Natural Disasters Can Lead To 2012 Disputes. Here's an excerpt from The Houston Chronicle: “We escaped the wrath of hurricanes and had fewer tornadoes, but the lack of rainfall extended the drought in many areas of the state” in 2011, said Mark Hanna, a spokesman for the Insurance Council of Texas. “That led to record wildfires, which I don’t think we will soon forget.” Six of the top 10 largest fires in Texas history all occurred in April 2011, according to the Insurance Council. The costliest wildfire in Texas history erupted on Labor Day weekend in Bastrop County, the Council said. It resulted in two deaths and 1,600 homes destroyed by fire. Insured losses were set at $325 million." Graphic above courtesy of NCDC.

Ocean Acidification Worst For 300 Million Years. TGDaily.com has the story: "The world's oceans appear to be acidifying faster than at any time in the last 300 million years, and sea life may well be unable to adapt. The last time acidification took place anywhere near this fast was during the Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum, or PETM. In the last hundred years, rising carbon dioxide from human activities has lowered ocean pH by 0.1 unit, and the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) predicts that pH will fall another 0.2 units by 2100, raising the possibility that we may soon see the same sort of ocean changes as those observed during the PETM."

Climate Change Could Impact On Polar Ecosystems. Here's an excerpt of a story from physorg.com: "Researchers studied cyanobacteria - the blue-green algae found in almost every body of water - in samples taken from the Arctic and Antarctic. "Blooms of these tiny microbes - known as cyanobacteria mats – can form in waters where there is an abundance of nutrients. These can often be seen on the surface of lakes, ponds, streams and other stretches of water. Cyanobacteria are hugely important because of their role in 'carbon-fixing' - absorbing carbon dioxide from the atmosphere and helping maintain healthy oxygen levels while turning the carbon into food for other organisms. However, some cyanobacteria can also contain toxins which can be potentially harmful for other organisms, especially animals."

March 2: Potential For Major Tornado Outbreak (5-8" snow for Chicago)

2012-03-01T21:12:00.000-08:00

36.2% of America (lower 48 states) covered in snow as of March 1, 2012.
19.2% of America covered in snow on February 1, 2012. Source: NOAA.
80 F. high at Raleigh/Durham Thursday. Normal high for March 1 is 59 F.
50 days above 40 F. in Chicago since December 1. 19.5" snow, no days below zero. Coldest temp: 5 F. Source: Bill Bellis, Hootsuite.

Major Tornado Outbreak Today for the nation's midsection, Ohio Valley and Mid South, possibly rivaling the deadly outbreak of May, 2011. Some are comparing this to the "Super Outbreak" of 1974, when 148 tornadoes touched down in 13 states.

January: 19th Warmest Worldwide. NOAA's NCDC division has more details.

"However, most climate models predict more positive AOs (like this winter) in the future. The IPCC hypothesizes that this could be because a warmer lower atmosphere and a cooler upper atmosphere, both products of human-produced greenhouse gases, cause the polar vortex to strengthen. Stronger polar winds mean cold Arctic air stays up north. That equals more bad snow conditions for the U.S. even without the influence of a warmer planet." - from an article at Huffington Post below. Graphic courtesy of Real Science.

“If there is a dramatic loss of Arctic sea ice, the westerly winds that blow across the North Pacific and North Atlantic oceans are weakened,” lead author Jiping Liu, a senior research scientist at the Georgia Institute of Technology, told Climatewire. “This means we will have a wavier jet stream.” The loss of ice and warmer temperatures mean that there is much more evaporation from the Arctic Ocean, leading to a higher moisture content in the polar air that is pulled south. That means that intense snowfall is more likely, especially as the polar air collides with warm, moist air from the south. In 1999, Kevin Trenberth explained how global warming would lead to more intense precipitation events, including snow storms." - from an article from Think Progress and Renew Economy; details below.

"Along with the steady decline (3.2 percent per decade) in overall Arctic sea ice extent, a new NASA study shows that the oldest and thickest multi-year ice is melting at a much faster pace — about 15 percent per decade — than the thin ice that forms anew each year." - from an article at Summit County Citizens Voice; details below.

"One major issue, she said, is that when we text, email or post to a social networking site, we’re able to project ourselves as we want to be seen. “We get to edit, we get to delete, and that means we get to retouch.” Inversely, Turkle notes that a face-to-face conversation “takes place in real time and you can’t control what you’re going to say.” - from a mashable.com article below.

Seasonably Chilly Weekend: Hints Of April Next Week? Long-range guidance shows 40s, even some 50s possible by the middle of next week. Like snow? Get out this weekend and make the most of it, because (at least in the metro) our snow will be gone by Tuesday of next week. Graphic above courtesy of Iowa State's meteorology department. Go Cyclones!

Significant Tornado Potential. Much of the Ohio Valley and Mid South is under a "moderate risk" of severe storms. There's a chance this may be upgraded to a (very rare) "high risk" later today. More from SPC, NOAA's Storm Prediction Center:

"WITH STORM MODE LIKELY TO BECOME A MIX OF SUPERCELLS AND COMPLEX LINE SEGMENTS...THREATS FOR BOTH DAMAGING WINDS AND SEVERAL TORNADOES APPEARS EVIDENT...ACCOMPANYING THE LIKELIHOOD FOR LARGE HAIL. A COUPLE OF STRONG TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE -- MAINLY DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS IN AND NEAR THE MODERATE RISK AREA."

Major Severe Weather Episode Looking More Likely For Ohio Valley And Mid South. The maps are not looking good, in fact some meteorologists (I admire and trust) are comparing some of the parameters to the "Super-Outbreak of 1974", when over 120 tornadoes touched down in one 24 hour period from the USA into Ontario, Canada. That's the unprecedented severe weather event that got my attention as an aspiring 16 year old weather nerd. It was beyond my comprehension that so many (large/violent/deadly) tornadoes could touch down on a single day: April 3, 1974. Here are some details from a post by the Northern Illinois Storm Chaser site: "Our expectation is that convection will initiate by early afternoon southeast of the favored triple point, with the best chance for a chase able tornadic supercell INVO of the warm front, southeast of the surface low, across S IL or far SE MO (i.e., K1H2 – KFWA). A massive QLCS is likely to erupt by late afternoon and early evening, extending from SE IL into SC AL and points ENE. All modes of severe weather are possible, though the threat for tornadic supercells, especially those embedded within QLCS structures, will remain a bona fide threat given the directional shear profiles found across the region. Wind damage is also a threat, along with some large hail. Given the impressive speed shear profiles, some substantial wind damage appears likely; consequently, assuming that the instability profiles materialize, and it looks as if they will, this is going to be a very dangerous situation for anyone residing in the middle and lower Mississippi River valleys, extending eastward across the Ohio River Valley."

Sound Advice. I couldn't agree more - never rely on the emergency outdoor sirens. They were designed for outdoor use only. The more sources of warning information, the better: NOAA Weather Radio, local TV, radio, e-mail, apps, etc. Alabama weather legend James Spann has more good advice in his blog.

Potentially Violent Friday. The dark-red shaded area indicates an 80-100% probability of thunderstorms later today - many will be severe; some capable of large hail, damaging straight-line winds and potentially large, violent, long-lasting tornadoes. More from NOAA's Environmental Visualization Laboratory.

Severe Storms And Tornadoes Tear Through The Heartland. Leap Day, 2012 will never be forgotten in the town of Harrisburg, Illinois. Pjstar.com has some unforgettable photos of the carnage left behind from EF-4 tornadoes: "Leap Day was not a good one for thousands of people in the Midwest and Southern United States as severe storms and tornadoes left a trail of destruction in Illinois, Missouri, Kansas, Arkansas, Oklahoma, Kentucky, and Tennessee. Waves of strong storms devastated small communities and damaged the country music resort town of Branson, Missouri. But none faced the wrath of Mother Nature like the southern Illinois town of Harrisburg. A massive 200-yard wide EF4 twister, the second worst type, smashed into the small town of 9,000 with 170 mph winds, killing 6 and injuring hundreds more."

Photo credit above: "People try to salvage what they can after a tornado destroyed homes in their neighborhood Wednesday, Feb. 29, 2012, in Harrisburg, Ill. The tornado that blasted Harrisburg, killing six, was an EF4, the second-highest rating given to twisters based on damage. Scientists said it was 200 yards wide with winds up to 170 mph. (AP Photo/Seth Perlman)."

Critical Fire Threat. From NOAA's Facebook page: "An extremely critical fire weather threat is forecast today across parts of southeastern New Mexico surrounded by a critical fire weather threat over much of the southern High Plains."

A Tale Of Tow Cities (Mpls/St. Paul) After Recent Snowfall. The Star Tribune's Bill McAuliffe takes a look at how both metro areas approached out recent mega-snow (a whopping 2.8"), just enough snow to torment some poor residents who parked in the wrong spot at the wrong time: "Owners of 1,085 vehicles felt the pain of the season's first snow emergency in St. Paul Wednesday and Thursday, getting their vehicles towed for violating parking restrictions. They were some of the 3,890 who also received tickets. The totals from Minneapolis: zero, and zero. That's because Minneapolis did not declare a snow emergency, pointing out another of the subtle ways in which the Twin Cities can differ. Snow emergencies can launch in St. Paul when 3 inches or more of snow falls, but the threshold in Minneapolis is 4. The official snowfall in the Twin Cities from Tuesday night into Wednesday, measured at Minneapolis-St. Paul International Airport, was 2.8."

Most Snow Of The Winter - In Meteorological Spring? As far as the atmosphere is concerned, Thursday marked the first day of (true) spring, "meteorological spring". What is historically the 90 coldest day stretch of the winter ended on February 29. So it's more than a bit odd that the map above displays the most snow we've seen during the entire winter season. I stand by my prediction that this upcoming weekend will be the best weekend of the "winter" for snowmobiling and cross country skiing up north. More trail details from the Minnesota DNR here.

Significant Snow Up North. The local NWS office has a great URL (on a zoomable Google map) that shows how much snow is on the ground. There's no doubt in my mind that this weekend may be the last chance to zip north and check out some great snow conditions. If the forecast verifies and we do see 40s (and even some 50s) next week this snow will quickly turn to slop, and be mostly-gone within a week. Don't procrastinate...

Much-Needed Precipitation. It wasn't nearly enough snow for winter enthusiasts (at least in the Twin Cities metro area), but the storm that hit Tuesday-Wednesday did dump significant precipitation on much of central and southern Minnesota, some 1-2" amounts. It doesn't erase the drought, since much of this moisture will eventually run off of frozen ground - but it helped a little. More from the Twin Cities NWS: "The winter storm on February 28th and 29th brought much needed precipitation to the region. The area has been in a drought since late summer 2011. Heres a map showing 24 hour precipitation amounts, ending around 7AM on February 29th. More precipitation fell in the Twin Cities from this storm than has fallen in any one event since August 16, 2011. In addition, February was the first month since July of 2011 that the precipitation was above normal in the Twin Cities."

It's Official - The Snow Was "One Poodle Deep". Thanks to my friend and fellow weather enthusiast Pete Schenck, who lives up in Herbster, Wisconsin, on the banks of mighty Lake Superior, where a cool 12" snow piled up from Wednesday's storm.

The Better End Of Today's Storm. Yes, snow can be disruptive, but at least it won't sweep your home off the foundation. Chicago and Milwaukee may pick up 6-8" of snow today, well over a foot for northern Lower Michigan, just a coating of snow expected for parts of central and northern Minnesota looking out 84 hours. NAM forecast above courtesy of NOAA and WeatherCaster.

70 By Mid March? At this point nothing would surprise me - it's been a winter of shock and awe. The GFS is showing highs in the mid 60s by March 14-15, with 850 mb temperatures reaching +12 C. Then again the GFS has been especially erratic in recent months, so my confidence level is lower than usual. Then again, our weather has been on fast-forward since late January. No more subzero weather (only 3 nights below zero all winter), so 60s in mid March makes sense. We'll see.

"Hook Echo Cookies?" O.K. This may not be the best day to be sharing this photo, but there are a lot of storm chasers out there that just can't get enough of hook echoes. Now I've officially seen everything. Thanks to Susie Martin for sharing this sweet pic.

Is Social Media Actually Making Us Less Connected? An article at mashable.com caught my eye: "LONG BEACH, Calif. – Checking email during meetings. Shopping on your smartphone in the middle of class. Texting at funerals. These are a few of the examples that MIT professor Sherry Turkle offered during her TEDTalk on Thursday, in which she argued that “technology is taking us places we don’t want to go.” Turkle, a psychologist who leads MIT’s Initiative on Technology and Self, believes that while our constant communication and social media engagement does make us more connected, it’s coming at the sacrifice of real conversation. And she thinks that will have some serious consequences for our relationships, our self-perceptions and our emotions."

Photo credit above: "Carmen Scheidel, of Mediabistro, conducts an online class as part of a social media marketing boot camp in New York, Feb. 16, 2012. For midcareer executives, knowing how to use Twitter, update your timeline on Facebook, pin on Pinterest, check in on Foursquare and upload images on Instagram are among the digital skills some employers expect in a job candidate. (Fred R. Conrad/The New York Times)."

Your Life, Broadcast Live. The New York Times (subscription may be required) details an amazing new innovation (threat?) that allows you to wear a device that streams live video and audio from wherever you might happen to be, into the ubiqitous "cloud". Oh boy - we're not safe anywhere now. "When Looxcie, the tiny video camera that fits over the ear, came out in 2010, it gave navel gazers an opportunity to record and share the minutiae of their daily lives. Looxcie records in a continuous five-hour loop, allowing users to capture events in their lives, both unexpected and mundane, without lugging around a video camera. An Instant Clip button on the gadget lets videographers send a clip of the last 30 seconds to a social network with a single click."

8 Qualities Of Remarkable Employees. This article from inc.com and LinkedIn.com caught my eye: "Great employees are reliable, dependable, proactive, diligent, great leaders and great followers... they possess a wide range of easily-defined—but hard to find—qualities. A few hit the next level. Some employees are remarkable, possessing qualities that may not appear on performance appraisals but nonetheless make a major impact on performance. Here are eight qualities of remarkable employees:

1. They ignore job descriptions. The smaller the company, the more important it is that employees can think on their feet, adapt quickly to shifting priorities, and do whatever it takes, regardless of role or position, to get things done."

Freezing Rain. This terrific example of freezing rain, rain freezing on contact with cold surfaces (sometimes called glaze ice) was shot by Tricia Frostad in Chanhassen.

Dreaming Of Spring Break. Here's a photo of one very contented family down in Boca Grande, on a barrier island south of Sarasota, Florida.

More Warm Records Than Cold Records. Last year there were nearly 3 times more record highs than record lows across the USA. Source: CapitalClimate and Think Progress.

Writing On The Wall

No, this hasn't been your grandfather's winter. And we shouldn't be too shocked: NASA says 10 of the 11 warmest years on record have taken place since 2000.

A new poll suggest nearly 2 out of 3 Americans now believe that climate change is real. It may have little to do with believing the science and more to do with looking out the window. Some are mistaking "weather" for "climate", but there is no mistaking an apparent uptick in extreme weather.

A tornado outbreak over the nation's midsection later today may rival major outbreaks, like the "Super Outbreak" of 1974. La Nina springs are often more severe than normal.

Ironically, a loss of arctic sea ice may be increasing the potential for heavier U.S. winter snows, in spite of warming winters. Details on my blog.

My weatherwise friend over at Minneapolis/St. Paul Magazine, Adam Platt, writes: "I have been able to see grass in my backyard all but about 5 days before Thanksgiving. This is truly amazing. And I am not complaining." You're not alone.

A cool, flakey weekend gives way to an April fling; 50s possible by Tuesday. More bare lawns within 96 hours.

Climate Stories...

Global Warming's Critical Role In "Snowpocalypse Winters". Australia's Renew Economy has the story: "Scientists have tied the rapid decline of Arctic sea ice, caused by global warming pollution, to the recent extreme winters that hit the United States last year and Europe this year. In “Impact of declining Arctic sea ice on winter snowfall,” a new report published by the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, researchers find that the loss of polar ice has changed atmospheric circulation and increased atmospheric water vapor, driving the popularly-dubbed “snowpocalypse” conditions: “We conclude that the recent decline of Arctic sea ice has played a critical role in recent cold and snowy winters.”

Photo credit above: "St. Cloud, Minn., city snowplows clear city streets of about 8 inches of wet, heavy snow Wednesday, Feb. 29, 2012. (AP Photos/The St. Cloud Times, Dave Schwarz)."

Global Warming: Thick, Multi-year Arctic Ice Melting Faster. Some vaguely troubling developments documented by the Summit County Citizen's Voice: "Along with the steady decline (3.2 percent per decade) in overall Arctic sea ice extent, a new NASA study shows that the oldest and thickest multi-year ice is melting at a much faster pace — about 15 percent per decade — than the thin ice that forms anew each year. The rapid decline of older ice makes the Arctic Ocean’s floating ice cap even more vulnerable to further decline in the summer, according to Joey Comiso, a senior scientist at NASA Goddard Space Flight Center. “The average thickness of the Arctic sea ice cover is declining because it is rapidly losing its thick component, the multi-year ice. At the same time, the surface temperature in the Arctic is going up, which results in a shorter ice-forming season,” Comiso said. “It would take a persistent cold spell for most multi-year sea ice and other ice types to grow thick enough in the winter to survive the summer melt season and reverse the trend.”

Graphic credit above: "The bright white central mass shows the perennial sea ice while the larger light blue area shows the full extent of the winter sea ice including the average annual sea ice during the months of November, December and January. The data shown here were compiled by NASA senior research scientist Josefino Comiso from NASA's Nimbus-7 satellite and the U.S. Department of Defense's Defense Meteorological Satellite Program. Credit: NASA/Goddard Scientific Visualization Studio." Courtesy: Summit County Citizens Voice.

Poll: 62% Of Americans Believe Earth Is Getting Warmer. Details at Huffington Post: "WASHINGTON (AP) — Americans' belief in global warming is on the rise, along with temperatures and surprising weather changes, according to a new university poll. The survey by the University of Michigan and Muhlenberg College says 62 percent of those asked last December think the Earth is getting warmer. That's up from 55 percent in the spring of that year and 58 percent in December 2010. It is the highest proportion in two years. Nearly half the people who say they believe in global warming base that on personal observations of the weather. Climate researchers say that's reaching the correct conclusion for reasons that aren't quite right."

Photo credit above: "A Japanese flowering apricot tree at New York Botanical Garden, Feb. 22, 2012. Horticulturalists in the Bronx call it the global-warming garden, and in a winter notable for its consistent mildness, it is hardly unusual. (Suzanne DeChillo/The New York Times)."

University Survey Links Americans' Growing Belief In Global Warming With Higher Temperatures Outside. Details from The Washington Post: "Nearly half the people who say they believe in global warming base that on personal observations of the weather. Climate researchers say that’s reaching the correct conclusion for reasons that aren’t quite right. When asked an open-ended question about why they thought the Earth was warming, one-quarter of those surveyed pointed to temperatures they experience and another quarter cited other weather changes."

Photo credit above: "(Amy Sancetta, File/Associated Press) - FILE - In this Feb. 5, 2012 file photo, people walk in the South Chagrin Reservation Metropark on a sunny and mild afternoon in Bentleyville, Ohio". Courtesy: Washington Post.

Where's All My Snow? Here's an excerpt from the full article at Huffington Post: "I live in Truckee, CA, at about 6000 feet in the Sierras, a part of the country known for getting hit with a lot of snow. As I write, however, the snowpack depth in my backyard is precisely 0 feet 0 inches. Higher up in the mountains, it's more like 2 feet. In terms of overall water stored in the snowpack, that's about 30% of normal. On top of that, I love to ski, as do most people who live in Truckee. This year, people are freaking out about our lack of snow. At first it was a joke, but then as weeks stretch into months, the possibility of snow has become a taboo subject. "Something looks possible this weekend," said one fellow skier to me last week, "but I didn't tell you that." "Nope," I said. "I didn't hear a thing."

Climate Control: A Moral Issue. From The Hill's Congress Blog: "It is the winter of 2012, but it feels like spring. And our gut tells us that that is not a good thing. But before we get up the courage to link this lovely, but eerie, weather to the steady warnings coming from climate scientists – who’ve been telling us for decades about the dire consequences of climate change if we continue our unbridled use of fossil fuels - Senator Inhofe looks to provide the mind- and heart-numbing relief he believes we long for in the form of a misguided book. He tells us we have nothing to worry about.
And we just might believe him – except that, in the winter-that-feels-like-spring of 2012, another voice is calling to us, from a higher place."

Bombshell: You Can't Slow Projected Warming With Gas, You Need "Rapid And Massive Deployment" Of Zero-Carbon Power. The story from Think Progress: "A must-read new study by climatologist Ken Caldeira and tech guru Nathan Myhrvold (!) makes clear the world’s only plausible hope to avert catastrophic temperature rise this century is aggressive deployment of zero-carbon technologies and conservation. The Institute of Physics news release explains:

… technologies that offer only modest reductions in greenhouse gases, such as the use of natural gas and perhaps carbon capture and storage, cannot substantially reduce climate risk in the next 100 years.
Delaying the rollout of the technologies is not an option however; the risks of environmental harm will be much greater in the second half of the century and beyond if we continue to rely on coal-based technologies."

The Big Fracking Bubble: The Scam Behind The Gas Boom. I have no doubt we should be using all of America's energy resources to grow our economy, while planting (big) seeds in zero-carbon technology for the future. Is "fracking" the miracle cure our nation is looking for? I'm keeping an open mind, but there is growing concern about the environmental impact of this method for extracting natural gas. Here's an excerpt from a recent Rolling Stone article: ".....According to Arthur Berman, a respected energy consultant in Texas who has spent years studying the industry, Chesapeake and its lesser competitors resemble a Ponzi scheme, overhyping the promise of shale gas in an effort to recoup their huge investments in leases and drilling. When the wells don't pay off, the firms wind up scrambling to mask their financial troubles with convoluted off-book accounting methods. "This is an industry that is caught in the grip of magical thinking," Berman says. "In fact, when you look at the level of debt some of these companies are carrying, and the questionable value of their gas reserves, there is a lot in common with the subprime mortgage market just before it melted down." Like generations of energy kingpins before him, it would seem, McClendon's primary goal is not to solve America's energy problems, but to build a pipeline directly from your wallet into his."

Photo credit above: "Gillie Waddington of Enfield, N.Y., raises a fist during rally against hydraulic fracturing of natural gas wells at the Legislative Office Building in Albany, N.Y., on Monday, Jan. 23, 2012. About 600 people registered to lobby lawmakers Monday on various bills related to the technology known as "fracking." Many are pushing a bill that would ban fracking, which stimulates gas production by using chemically treated water to fracture shale. Others are supporting a bill putting a moratorium on shale gas development. (AP Photo/Mike Groll)."

February 18: Heavy Snow Kentucky to Virginia (maps look like March)

2012-02-17T21:54:00.000-08:00

10 hours, 30 minutes of daylight today.

104 minutes of additional daylight since December 21 in the Twin Cities.

.23" liquid predicted for the Twin Cities next Monday (NAM model). With temperature close to freezing I could see a mix of rain and snow ending as snow, a coating to an inch of slush possible Monday night on lawns and fields, while most main roads stay wet.

4X. According to Dr. Mark Seeley, midwinter rain and ice events have increased four-fold in the Twin Cities since 2000.

77 days of above average temperatures in the MSP metro area since November 1. Source: Dr. Mark Seeley. Details in his WeatherTalk blog below.

"Viewers tracking storms on television will perhaps most embrace the intelligence from the dual polarity that indicates whether or not a tornado has actually touched down. The key, Baron said, is that the dual polarity can identify the size of objects in the air - from large raindrops to small ones to even snow. And a common trait of a tornado on the ground is the debris it picks up. If there is a cluster of debris, that's a strong indicator of a touchdown." - from an article on dual polarization Doppler radar and Baron Services, a pioneer in radar technology, in a blog post at al.com below.

171 "Nexrad" (next-generation) National Weather Service Doppler radar systems across the USA, providing nearly continuous radar coverage from coast to coast. Map source: NOAA.

"Three states (Louisiana, Texas and South Dakota) have passed so-called Environmental Literacy Improvement Act bills — written by energy industry shills — that require schools to teach climate change “denial” along with conventional climate science. Other states are considering such measures." - from an article at salon.com below. Photo credit here.

"Research has shown that people are motivated to find information that supports their beliefs. "Encountering counterarguments causes us to marshal forces like an army of white blood cells to defend against them."

"Gallup and Pew polls show that the percentage of Americans that believe in climate change now hovers around 50 percent, but Krosnick's latest poll -- which asked the question in a more detailed way -- suggests the figure is 83 percent -- up from 79 percent in 1997. Of the global warming believers, the majority also reported thinking that the burning of fossil fuels and other human activities play a role. The trend held after the researchers broke the data down by political party: 66 percent of Republicans said climate change is happening." - from a Huffington Post article below.

20 cents/mile. Average cost of driving in a traditional, combustion-engine vehicle.
2 cents/mile. Average cost of driving an EV, or electric vehicle. Source: Dept. of Energy, Tesla Corporation. Photo of Tesla Model S above courtesy of Wikipedia.

1.6 million elevators and escalators maintained by Otis Elevator Corporation, worldwide. A new generation of Otis elevators actually generates electricity, power that can go back into the building to keep the lights on. Source: Bloomberg Radio.

"The future belongs to those who believe in the beauty of their dreams." - Eleanor Roosevelt

Dry Ponds And Green Grass In Eden Prairie. Thanks to WeatherNation meteorologist Susie Martin for sharing these photos of dry ponds and wetlands (and a lawn that's trying to green up - about 40 days ahead of schedule). I worry what will happen if we do see a spell of teens and 20s the end of February.

Above Average Temperatures Through Most Of Next Week. A cool Saturday (close to average for mid February) gives way to upper 30s Sunday and Monday, followed by a slow cooling trend the latter half of next week. Nothing arctic - but by the end of next week it may actually start to feel like February again.

Inside A Nearly Impossible Winter Weather Forecast. It's been an on-again/off-again storm for the Washington D.C. area. I can sympathize. The Washington Post's Capital Weather Gang describes the difficulty with Sunday's phantom snowstorm: "Last night (Thursday night), the models seemed to converging towards a snowy solution. It looked like there was a decent chance of meeting winter storm watch criteria. However, today’s runs paint a different picture as there continues to be model chaos. Even the question of precipitation type has not been completely resolved. Why is this forecast so hard? It turns out, there are many layers of complexities involved. The overriding unresolved question is how much snow will the storm produce and, if it does, how much will stick. Both these questions are very much up in the air as very small changes in the storm track can make huge differences in the amount of precipitation it produces."

* storm tracks and timing above courtesy of NOAA NCEP.

Latest Snowfall Prediction. The NAM is still printing out some 8-16" snowfall amounts for southeastern Kentucky and West Virginia, a plowable accumulation into central Virginia, with 1-3" possible for Washington D.C., a coating to 1" for Philly and south Jersey. Monday's (weak) storm over the Upper Midwest may drop a couple inches of slush on the Red River Valley, little snow expected in the Twin Cities metro area.

As Good As It Gets. A (warm), slow-moving and weakening area of low pressure may squeeze out a quick inch of slush Monday night, a better chance of a couple inches of snow over far western Minnesota. Models are hinting at another inch or so of snow next Thursday as temperatures begin to fall. Nothing but (meager) clippers. Yes, we are most definitely in a snow recession.

Monday Mix? The Bufkit plot from last night's 00z NAM run shows a little wet snow Monday afternoon changing over to a cold rain Monday evening as temperatures aloft rise above 32 F. That leads me to believe that we won't see 2" of snow, maybe a sloppy coating to an inch of slush - before the changeover to rain. With surface temperatues just above freezing I suspect most roads will stay wet. A late February snow is different than a (cold) early January snow. Considering the maps look more like mid March I guess we shouldn't be too surprised that we'll see a mix of rain/snow.

Saturday Severe Threat. SPC shows a slight risk of severe storms, including a potential for isolated tornadoes, from southern Louisiana to Montgomery, Birmingham and the Atlanta area, as well as parts of the Florida panhandle.

0-Line Creeping Closer. The map above, courtesy of policlimate.com, shows the coldest nighttime lows expected over the next 8 days, a chance of subzero lows over the northern third of Minnesota (especially the end of next week).

Arctic Oscillation: Still Mostly-Positive. After dipping into negative numbers since late January, implying weaker westerly winds and a better chance of bitter air pushing into the lower 48 states, the AO is forecast to become strongly positive again in late February and early March, meaning stronger west winds across North America, a somewhat diminished risk of bitter, subzero air reaching the USA. There's little doubt we'll cool down in late February, but the odds of more subzero weather for the northern tier states has dropped in recent days. Source: policlimate.com.

One More (Real) Cold Front? The GFS is fairly consistent bringing one more surge of numbing air south of the border during the last few days of February. It won't stay cold for long - a few days in the teens and 20s; not even sure we'll dip below zero in the metro area. But keep the heavy jackets handy. Winter isn't quite done with us just yet. GFS 500mb forecast above valid February 29.

Shiver-Potential. Although no big storms are in sight (where have you heard THAT before?) the GFS and other models are fairly consistent pulling nippy air south of the border between February 26 - February 29; maybe 2 or 3 days of minor pain and scattered goosebumps. The GFS drops metro lows into single digits, but a lack of significant snowcover may keep the mercury above zero at KMSP.

Warm Winter = Less Static Electricity? Dr. Mark Seeley answers a good question about how our unusually mild winter has impacted static electricity; a lack of bitter (dry) Canadian air has had some positive effects. More in his weekly WeatherTalk blog: "Since November 1, 2011, 77 percent of all days have brought above normal temperatures to the Twin Cities. But in addition dewpoints (atmospheric water vapor) has been very high this winter. The presence of more moisture in the atmosphere makes it more conductive preventing the build-up of charged particles. In the indoor environment humidifiers help keep static electricity potential down, but Mother Nature does it best if the atmosphere outside is moist to begin with. During this winter we have had many dewpoints in the 20s and 30s F, about 25-30 degrees F higher than normal. These have produced days with relative humidity of 65-80 percent, conditions that are not conducive to the formation of static electricity."

Good News Continues In Latest Flood Outlook. The Crookston Times has the encouraging news: "Fargo, N.D. — The latest flood outlook for the Red River in eastern North Dakota features a little-uttered word: minor. Figures released by the National Weather Service on Thursday show the chances for minor flooding are less than 33 percent in most areas. And between the South Dakota and Canadian borders, the possibility of major flooding on the Red River is between just 1 percent and 6 percent. Greg Gust, a meteorologist with the weather service, joked that river forecasting has been less than exciting this year." Map above courtesy of NOAA.

Spring Flood Outlook Shows Average To Below Average Risk. The very latest from Radio Iowa: "The National Weather Service has released its spring flood outlook, and senior hydrologist Jeff Zogg says it’s something everyone should like. “The risk of flooding statewide across Iowa this spring, looking at the current conditions we have right now, indicates an average or below average risk of flooding. So definitely in better shape this year than we have been in the past couple of years,” Zogg says. The last couple of winters we have seen lots of snow and records for the amount of time that snow stayed on the ground. That’s not the case this winter.”Snowpack across Iowa, and the Mississippi and Missouri basins above Iowa, so far this winter have been below average, so that tends to lesson the flood risk,” according to Zogg." Photo above courtesy of the USGS.

Former TV Meteorologist Bob Baron Making World Safer From Tornadoes. I'm proud to say I know Bob Baron; he's a true entreprenuer and pioneer - he built Baron Services from scratch down in Huntsville, and he's been on the cutting edge of radar technology for the better part of 25 years. In fact we use Baron technology on the air - their Vipir Doppler system, which can tap into NWS Nexrad radars and live, local TV radars as well - there's no better tool to analyze severe thunderstorms. KARE-11 also has Vipir, which does a remarkable job isolating the rotating T-storms that often go on to spawn large hail and tornadoes. The Birmingham News has the story at al.com: "HUNTSVILLE, Alabama -- Bob Baron is sitting in his sprawling office on the second floor of his tornado business and seems almost amused at the repeated questions about April 27. For some, April 27, 2011, was the day that tornadoes became TORNADOES. For some, every dark cloud off to the west now gets an extra glance or two. For Baron, he's more than 20 years ahead of you. "It really hasn't changed what we've done," he said. Baron, a former television meteorologist in Huntsville, founded Baron Services in the aftermath of the deadly Airport Road tornado in 1989. Ever since, he's been trying to demystify tornadoes."

Photo credit above: "Baron Services was founded in 1990. They worked in the development of Doppler weather radar including dual-polarization radar technology. Their equipment and software is in a number of broadcast TV station. They are working with L-3 STRATIS to upgrade 171 NEXRAD installations with dual-polarization capability for the U.S. National Weather Service, Federal Aviation Administration and Department of Defense. Bob Baron talks about the tornado outbreak on April 27, 2011. Screen on right is tornado track of one of the F5 tornadoes which hit Ala. (The Huntsville Times/Dave Dieter)."

Report: Severe Weather On The Rise. An update from delmarvanow.com: "SALISBURY -- Natural disasters have become big business in Maryland. Within the past year, a string of damaging and expensive natural disasters, including tornadoes, a hurricane, a tropical storm and earthquake tremors have all caused damage to the region and businesses throughout the Lower Shore. According to a report released by Environment Maryland, weather-related disasters affected 18 counties throughout the state including Hurricane Irene and Tropical Storm Lee, which dumped 23.7 inches of rain on Maryland."

Photo credit above: "Within the past year, a string of damaging and expensive natural disasters, including tornadoes, a hurricane, a tropical storm and earthquake tremors have all caused damage in the region. The Daily Times/file photo."

Start-Up Sends Live Local TV To iPhones and iPads. This is bound to trigger a fight with local broadcasters, who are paid by cable systems to retransmit their signals. Aero gets around this by selling a small antenna, which then makes it legal, or so they hope. Plenty of additional billable hours for lawyers involved with this one, but once the genie is out of the Internet-bottle, it's going to be tough to put it back in. More from AP and MSNBC.com: "A startup backed by media billionaire Barry Diller has launched a service that sends live local TV feeds to iPhones and iPads. But the service may be short-lived, since TV stations are likely to challenge its right to use their broadcasts. The service, Aereo, launched in New York this week, but it is available only by invitation. It hopes to broaden access to more people next month, and then launch in other cities. Subscribers pay $12 per month and use their web browsers to access streams from 27 local channels, including the major broadcast networks ABC, CBS, NBC and Fox. For now, the service works only on iPhones, iPads and iPod Touches, but Aereo is planning to make it accessible to PC browsers and Android-powered phones as well."

Ask Paul Weather Q&A.

"There is talk of an early spring. Do your records remember when farmers were doing field work around Northfield on March 4, 1981? That may be a year or so off. I remember that clearly, because it was my birthday. I had never before seen such early field work, and I have not seen it since. I am almost 79 years old.

Gloria Kiester

Dear Gloria- I didn't get to the Twin Cities until March of 1983, but I teed up your question with Pete Boulay over at the MN State Climate Office. It turns out there was a spell of remarkable warmth in mid February, 1981. Here is what Pete said:

"I remember it well. Back in 1981 the Twin Cities was in the middle of a 5-day streak in the 50s, and one 60. It was great to walk outside and watch the snow melt away." - Pete Boulay, MN State Climate Office.

http://climate.umn.edu/doc/twin_cities/msp1980's.htm

One Amazing Warm Front. Check out the numbers from mid February, 1981. After waking up to -20 F. the morning of February 11, the high in the Twin Cities reached 60 just 5 days later! Data courtesy of the MN State Climate Office.
__________________________________________________________________________
Dear Paul,

I was a pilot in WWII and every morning a weather balloon was released to gather the current conditions. Now you have the jet stream. My question is how is the jet stream located? It must be invisible. Is it by radar or computer? I'll be watching the daily paper for an answer.
Yours truly,

Walter Miller
Plato, Minnesota

Dear Walter- thank you for your note (and your service in World War II). I have a son about to graduate from the U.S. Naval Academy - who will be training to fly jets or helicopters for the Navy, so I do not take what you did for granted. Thank you. Ironically, the same technology used in WWII is still in use today. Twice a day weather balloons are launched from hundreds of weather service sites (worldwide). Meteorologists use sophisticated devices to track these rapidly rising balloons, and they're able to calculate wind speeds at various altitudes of the atmosphere. It's a global effort, but it's an imperfect system. There are big holes/gaps in the data, especially over the oceans, where we rely on satellites. A new generation of NOAA weather satellites can estimate wind speeds, filling in some of these gaps in the data. BTW, the "jet stream" was discovered in WWII, when high-altitude bombers over Japan discovered that they were almost stationary over one spot - the winds aloft were that strong! The advent of jet aircraft (flying higher in the atmosphere) enabled pilots to literally stumble on this snake-like ribbons of rapidly-moving air; wind speeds can often exceed 100 mph some 4-7 miles above the ground. Wikipedia has a good explanation on the jet stream here. Thanks for a great question!
________________________________________________________________________
Paul, I am a recently retired investment banker who wants to learn more about weather - understanding weather terms, patterns, influences on local weather, tools for forecasting near term weather. Are there any college/university weather courses that you could steer me towards here in the Minneapolis - St.Paul metropolitan area.

Thanks

Steve Yanisch

Steve- Although the U. of Minnesota doesn't offer a meteorology degree (not quite sure why they don't) you might be able to audit an introductory meteorology course there - worth a shot. The only school in Minnesota where you can get a 4-year meteorology degree is St. Cloud State University. Again, they may have some options to sample classes that I'm not aware of. There is so much (good) information on the web now - a simple Google search will keep you busy for months to come. UCAR at Boulder offers a "Comet Virtual Classroom", which delve into incredible detail on every kind of meteorological phenomenon. The National Weather Service offers up "Jet Stream: Online School For Weather", which has some great information. Another good option: attend the 2012 Skywarn Conference at the University of St. Thomas on April 14. The emphasis is severe weather, but you'll make some contacts and connections which may lead to more opportunities. Good luck!

2012 Skywarn Workshop. If you're a weather enthusiast (geek), and you have a special interest in severe weather - this is a conference you probably don't want to miss - scheduled for April 14 at the University of St. Thomas. For more information click here. If you're interested in becoming a Skywarn spotter classes are available across the state. Click here to see when and where.

"Spring is when you feel like whistling even with a shoe full of slush." - Doug Larson

National Highs And Lows For The Lower 48 States, courtesy of NOAA.

Winter On Hold

"Spring is when you feel like whistling even with a shoe full of slush," said Doug Larson. No slush in sight, but I'm whistling. Some part of me misses the snow, but - like many - I feel like I won the Winter Lotto this year. Like I went in for a root canal, only to discover my (sadistic) dentist mixed up the X-rays. Relieved.

We're not quite out of the woods - but I can see the edge of the forest coming into view. Dr. Mark Seeley reports 77 days above average since November 1 in the metro.

At the rate we're going (with a chilly end to February) this may wind up being the 3rd or 4th warmest meteorological winter since 1872. 3 subzero nights so far? If word gets out there'll be a line of minivans and SUV's rolling up I-35 any day now. You mean Minnesota doesn't get dreadfully cold anymore? It's cold enough, but the worst of the arctic fronts have been neutered since 1998.

Sunday's storm misses D.C, a few inches of snow for Tennessee and Virginia. A weakening storm may squeeze out 1-2" of slush Monday night, but the biggest storms track south of Minnesota through late February.

I've used my heavy coat only TWICE all winter. Keep a heavy jacket handy for late February.

* photo credit above here.

Climate Stories....

"Don't blow it - good planets are hard to find." - quoted in Time Magazine.

Dear Mr. Douglas,

Been meaning to drop you a quick note just saying thank you thank you thank you for your incredibly clear and courageous [sad that it is that] statement about climate change on Kerri's show, January 13. Bravo, I stopped what I was doing, clapped at the radio and wished more scientists were so articulate and pointed.

All the best,

Karin Preus

St. Paul, MN

Karin - I appreciate your note. I usually only hear from a very vocal minority, the skeptics, doubters and deniers on the subject of climate change. I don't pretend to be a climate scientist, but weather and climate are flip-sides of the same coin. Unlike some of the other TV meteorologists in town I do feel a professional obligation to report on climate science; what I genuinely believe will be one of the biggest, ongoing stories of the 21st century. I hope the scientists are wrong - but the body of data and evidence is pretty overwhelming, and getting bigger every year. I'll keep reporting on stories that catch my eye and share them with you - thanks for checking out the blog.

_____________________________________________________________________________

Climate Warming Denial: Big Business. Discovery News has the article; here's an excerpt: "What to do when adults persist in believing that the burning of fossil fuels is causing climate change? You know, on account of that pesky overwhelming scientific evidence and stuff? Simple. Target kids instead, and try to convince them, as early as possible, that it's all a crock - or at least that it's highly controversial. That apparently is the plan of the Heartland Institute, which dubs itself a "free-market think tank" and which has long sought to cast doubt on the reality of anthropogenic climate change. Earlier this week, an unknown source forwarded to DeSmogBlog a series of what appeared to be internal documents from Heartland, including information on funders (including an anonymous donor who funded much of the organization's climate change denying efforts, and up to 20 percent of its overall budget), a packet prepared for a board meeting, IRS documents, and a 2012 fundraising plan and budget. Heartland has denounced one of the documents, a so-called "climate strategy", as a fake, and indeed it does appear to stand out from the others; but that brief summary seems to draw mostly from the rest of the documents in the release, which the organization acknowledges "appear to have been written by Heartland’s president for a board meeting that took place on January 17."
Photo credit above: "IMAGE: The sun sets over the city of Chicago, where Heartland Institute is having an open house at One South Wacker #2740 Drive on March 1. (Photo by Brooks Kraft/Corbis)."

Why Global Warming Still Considered Target Of Skepticism For Americans. Huffington Post has the story; here's an excerpt: "If you follow the popular polls, you might think that Americans are growing ever more skeptical about man-made climate change -- despite the consensus among published climate scientists. That's simply not true, Jon Krosnick of Stanford University told an audience of social scientists and cognitive researchers Wednesday, in Garrison, N.Y. He maintained that most Americans do, in fact, believe. The problem, Krosnick said during his talk at the Garrison Institute's annual Climate, Mind and Behavior symposium, is that we haven't been asking the public the right questions. The other problem: Legislators are reading their misleading answers and hearing from a vocal minority of constituents."

Secret Papers Turn Up Heat On Global Warming Deniers. Salon.com has more: "With Al Gore way down in Antarctica inspecting melting glaciers, and America’s unusually mild winter providing a respite from seasons of freakish droughts, floods, Nome-style whiteouts and the hurricane that ravaged Vermont, the issue of man-caused global warming has been out of sight and mind. But virtually all scientists continue to believe that most indicators suggest the world as we know it is slowly ending, and that humans are to blame. Nature – oceans, deserts, crops, animals and insects – is in the process of being transformed by rising temperatures due to the fuel we burn to stay warm or cool, and to power factories, cars and jets. In the academies, the argument now is only between experts who predict “bad” and those who predict “catastrophe.” Some people don’t want to hear it. Supporters of industries that profit from the fossil-fuel status quo routinely challenge those facts, and treat them as political talking points." Photo above: Reuters.

Climate Change Naysayers Drowning Out Science: Expert. The story from The Edmonton Journal: "The president of one of the world's biggest scientific organizations says the research community is being outgunned by naysayers. She said she is "scared to death" by trends that show declining public acceptance of global warming and the growing influence of science skeptics, who have plenty of resources to spread their misinformation. "They are actually being effective," Nina Federoff, president of the American Association for the Advancement of Science, said Thursday when asked about reports of a new push to undermine the teaching of global warming in U.S. schools. Documents leaked by a Canadian group this week, said to be from the Chicago-based Heartland Institute, outline plans to discredit climate change in public schools and cast doubt on the scientific findings that emissions from burning fossil fuels threaten the planet.

Global Warming Could Fuel More Frequent Storm Surges. USA Today has more details: "Last year's most devastating tropical system -- Hurricane Irene -- was considered by some experts to be a "100-year-event," a storm that comes around only once a century. Irene lashed the East Coast in August, killing at least 45 people and leading to $7.6 billion in damages. But a study out this week in Nature Climate Change says that due to global warming, these monster storms could make landfall more frequently, causing destructive storm surges every 3 to 20 years instead of once a century." Photo: AP

Climate Change Skeptic Heartland Institute: Who Are They? The Alaska Dispatch has more details: "The climate change debate just got noisier. Leaked internal documents from the Heartland Institute have revealed the Chicago-based think tank's strategies for promulgating skepticism of the belief that humans are warming the planet. The documents were acquired through email by an outside source pretending to be a part of the Institute. They were then posted on the DeSmogBlog, a blog that seeks to discredit industry-funded climate skepticism, and their contents have been widely dissected in news reports. But few media outlets go into detail about exactly what the Heartland Institute is. Founded in 1984 by Chicago investor David H. Padden, the Heartland Institute initially focused on government policies that affected the American Midwest. Now it seeks to influence policies that have an impact on the entire planet."

Web Leak Shows Trail Of Climate Skeptic Funding. The story from the Sydney Morning Herald: "THE paper trail connecting the climate change sceptic movement in Australia and the conservative US expert panel the Heartland Institute goes back at least to 2009, documents released on the internet this week show. The Heartland Institute, a leading group that funds activities designed to sow doubt about climate change science, was embarrassed this week when its strategy and budget documents found their way to a US blog. The institute described the leak as a theft and said a police investigation was under way, while apologising to the 1800 companies and individuals whose identities were revealed as donors."

Climate Change Doubter Heartland Institute Documents Leaked. The L.A. Times has the latest: "Once in a while, there comes along a reason to believe in karma. Earlier this week, the Heartland Institute, a self-described “free-market think tank” that pilloried climate scientists whose stolen emails were released in 2009 as part of the so-called Climategate flap, found itself duped out of several confidential fundraising documents that were then distributed widely over the Internet, offering a glimpse of its priorities. On its website, the Chicago-based Heartland asserts that at least one document is forged. The group has yet to determine if the the other documents, including its tax returns and fundraising targets, were altered. It says it has notified the police and FBI of the unauthorized release of the documents, which occurred “when an unknown person who fraudulently assumed the identity of a Heartland board member … persuaded a staff member here to “re-send” board materials to a new email address.”

Heartland Institute Faces Fresh Scrutiny Over Tax Status. The Guardian has the story: "The Heartland Institute, the libertarian thinktank whose project to undermine science lessons for schoolchildren was exposed this week, faces new scrutiny of its finances – including its donors and tax status. The Guardian has learned of a whistleblower complaint to the Internal Revenue Service about Heartland's 501(c)(3) tax-exempt status. There was also a call from a group of climate scientists who have personally been on the receiving end of attacks from Heartland and bloggers funded by the thinktank, and whose email was posted online after a notorious 2009 hack, for Heartland to "recognise how its attacks on science and scientists have poisoned the debate about climate change policy," in a letter made available exclusively to the Guardian."

Photo credit above: "The Heartland Institute, whose strategy to undermine climate change was exposed this week, has non-profit status. Photograph: John Mcconnico/AP."

* An Open Letter To The Heartland Institute, courtesy of The Guardian.